BTCCNY
FCT/XMR-comparison-with-BTC/CNY-1day-chartAs this is my first chart i want to map the correlation between FCT and XMR's hype with the chinese BTC spot market at OKCoin.
As you can see the DNM market announcements gave XMR a very huge boom, the retracement isn't done yet - regardless to BTCs price we will have a decrease, with some smaller spikes.
In the same time FCT made nearly similar moves, in the beginning more aggressive but then we saw full retracements - especially in the timeframe from June-July related to BTCs moves - but always a bit later on.
As we are now in BTC sideways (19.9.2016) and probably have another correction till mid or end October, I assume FCT to achieve it's ATH from March 2016 again.
When will it happen? As XMRs correction passes FCTs uptrend - around the 500-600% scale we will have a very good opportunity to get to ATH.
FCTs forecast? Depends mainly on BTCs trend. It could form a cup and handle formation, but yet it's too early to say and pure speculation. Will update the chart at least every month.
Put the fun back into banking!
Yours coinwide
BTCCNY: UpdateBitcoin's uptrend came to a halt recently, and we've now failed to hit the required level above on time.
I'd expect either a triangle or downtrend continuation here, but not a move to the upside.
The Bitcoin ETF, GBTC also shows heavy selling, so it might anticipate further downside in BTCCNY, at least until GBTC gets oversold.
If long from lower levels, and for the long term, you can wait and buy dips, if long from around these parts it'd be better to stand aside, or be short for now.
Risk is a rally to 4153+, so size your trades accordingly.
If this is indeed a triangle weaving, shorts aren't too productive and they sit there eating interest for being held, so, again, caution is advised.
Let's reasess after we either drop during the weekend, or break back above 4069.39.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
High probability "Z" Candle close A really nice high probability candle (47,3%) on the 4H close which give us a good equity risk of 3.1%.
- because oof this wick to SL is just on the low of this candle to minimize risk.
Once in Profit set SL to B/E
After crossover the long down trend, BTC will go down againThe break from 4090 to 4178 is a crossover of the long down trend, after a short resistance BTC will find support at 3875~3820 again.
Then we see.
BTCCNY: Let's add or reenter longs if flatSimple, we can go long here with good odds for a rally in the intermediate term.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Triangles all day on XMRBTC could be losing momentum due to china driving the price down.
Possible breakout up or down imminent.
Chose your bets, Keep a relatively tight stop if long. We're one foot off the cliff.
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BTCCNY: Accumulation setup updateWe went long during this sideways accumulation, and now it's clear the time at mode setup here is active. We can expect a rally to the target on chart. Be patient and hold long positions.
See related ideas for my buy reccomendations.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Bitcoin Outlook Early September 2016China lagging behind USD exchanges. Bad.
From historical data, China always lead during a pump.
There were 2 occurrences(that i could find) when China is lagging with this magnitude during sideways/pump.
BOTH WHICH ENDED UP DUMPING WITH FULL RETRACE.
(Blue rectangle)
However, not all hope is lost just yet.
Charts + Open Interest looks great.
China might just need some more time to accumulate.
Expectation :
Sideways to bleed. Possible trace back to 4080 yuan.
No pump so soon.
Signs of a strong rally : China leads USD exchanges
Long BTC 583.5, Major trend line break. Buying on strengthI have been flip flopping between long and short during this consolidation no able to make a profit but many breakeven trades.
Long BTC 583.5, Major trend line break. Buying on strength.
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LISK triangle should show bull or bear winner!ABCD and incoming E?
Bull or bear?
I see potential ways:
1st way is most bullish and it can go fast with 45k+ signal of make ascending triangle with green 45k line with ending even in OCtober
2nd way is making E in triangle at upper trendline of sym triangle and bearish ending. It should lead to 30-35k double bottom.
2nd way" is E + down of tiangle +30k test and fail. This is most brutal sceanrio for Lisk bulls.
3rd way is also brutal like 2nd" but faster. It is going down from triangle without E and will occur double bottom in low 30ish area.
BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" Feeling wEdgy?Plenty of trend line support has taken hold. A big cat moved in on Bitfinex today and pounced on some cheap coin. This is the first positive movement since the hack. It all started when Bitfinex turned on the green light to use BFX tokens as collateral for margin trades. Both BFX value went up as BTC got a boost. The time line is heading for a nodal point where major trends up and down meet. My crystal balls are glowing. I turned one over and it said "790 by December". The other one was not quite so positive but not bad "590 by December". So either stagnation or better doesn't cause much panic in the BTC market for a few months.
Today's panic seems to be in Europe and Korea.
Deutsche Bank is out of gold. Well maybe not completely out but they want to keep what's not theirs to keep. In my book that's called criminal deceit but in banker talk they said they have the option to review, stall, and postpone a decision to make a decision about a decision on whether or not to make a decision about delivery on a contractual obligation to a customer. A reverse bank robbery. Quick, point the security cameras somewhere else. Oh, and the German government is telling its citizens to prepare for annihilation. Stock up now on necessary staples. Why? They blame the possibility of terrorists run-a-muck. Or, is it "Russian Roulette" with tactical nukes? Why does the US have tactical nukes in Turkey? Errrr, Romania. Yes! that's it! They're safer stored closer to the Russians. Obama got the Peace Prize. Remember? Umm, Hillary can't recall but that's another story for another time.
Korea is not such an economic power house after all. Hanjin, one of the world's largest cargo shipping service is out of money! Ships are floating around and aren't allowed to port because Hanjin didn't pay the bill from the last few times. This is the second Korean shipping domino to fall.
All this failure and fear point to one thing in the world of Bitcoin. The value of escaping from bankrupt fiat currency is increasing. Just look at Venezuela. This long term fiat panic will overpower the short term crypto panic of a hack attack. By the way, the trail is still hot on where all that coin went.
The near $900 inflection point to take place next summer is going to make 2017 a year to remember. For traditional chartists, it completes the cup. That cup has a target value of $1700....or more?
Buy some Iodine pills and about a 1000 rolls of toilet paper, and stay frosty my friends.
Next Bitcoin breakout - Weekly S/RLooking for the next weekly close above 3900 or under 3800 for a confirmed breakout off of the current Daily/12H squeeze.
BTC/USD Uptrend Pullback Potentially OverBTC had a monthly pullback that culminated in the drop to $460. If you look at the fast moves almost straight down, it is clear this was a pullback and not a trend change. If there's going to be a lower high to set about a trend change, knowing BTC traders it's likely to take place around 4500 CNY because that's where the new downtrend line is. Personally I expect it to break through and make a new ATH by 2017, but one step at a time here.
