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BTCCNY: Tight stop loss longWe can enter longs at market here, stop is 3715.66. This has good odds of coming back up to the weekly mode, where the Brexit key level lies. Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Ivan Labrie Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask. Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" HACK HACK BOOMIs it exchange roulette time? I invite comments. The weekly chart indicates the Bitfinex hack is a non-event although trading only resumed today. The pullback looks normal and above secondary support at the red hash line with relatively low volume. When compared to other exchanges the arbitration players are having a field day as much coinage is moving to other exchanges and the Bitfinex price is as much as 3% below market at times. I have to admit that I am a bit panicked. Although I was completely in USD at the time of the hack, Bitfinex took the liberty to take 36% of my USD and turn into a toilet paper called BFX. They call it a token while I call it a butt reaming. I'm still in USD but debating with myself to take my coinage elsewhere. Problem is porting to a new hash scheme for exchange communication on my BOT. I'm lazy and the collective "you" don't give a crap about my problems. I'm angered by Bitfinex management's arrogance and ignorance that opened the back door to the hack. I speculate that there is a BITGO insider responsible. If you read their testimonial it indicates they were aware of the anomalous and unrecommended Bitfinex configuration of their security tools. There is a 6000 BTC reward for the recapture of stolen assets. This comment is for the Bitfinex management: "look at the guy standing next to you"... there now give me back my USD and keep your 6000 BTC. It will be interesting to see if volume shifts to a new exchange over the next few weeks. KITCO has a nice web page devoted to the comparison: www.kitco.com As of today Bitfinex is 4X larger than the next largest exchange. More fundamentals to watch: Venezuela is melting and people there are waking up to BTC. There is a new olympic event called "three man looting" new teams are forming daily. There is a new country called Liberland and their national currency is BTC liberland.org . Before you pack the bags to move there, be aware you need to bring a mine sweeper. Liberland was no-man's land during the Kosovo-Serbia conflict. Turkey and Russia have backed off of a tactical nuke conflagration and are now chumming over sipping vodka. It seems that total power has settled Erdogan down. Deutsche bank is screaming "save me". Hillary may spasm her way into the white house www.youtube.com . Doesn't Kaine look like a Smurf? Just add purple. Not to mention Planet-X. Well, Planet-X may completely doom bitcoin. We won't talk about that. I fully expect a continued pullback to the red hash. Stay frosty my friends.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by investigator
Oh yeah! Daily Lisk is bullish!All details at chart. Possibly and not-greedy target for 2nd leg of potential uptrend (first real uptrend in Lisk lol) is area between 55k (one of the highs) and .382 fibo corresponding with my old target of higher high. The big triangle is old story and Lisk did huge fakeout-down just to get back on bull track with that daily bullish monster. Of course Lisk market are not used to play uptrend so market now is not sure, frightened and shy. Buy zone was obviously all below 40k but first below 45k. In long run all below 50k should be "cheap". Conservtive traders can wait to break 50k with stronger buy signal. MAs above 60k are not good for daily Lisk, but even that we can see nice bull touch of 50ma by daily green.
Long
by oldstout
5
Potential reversalI've got a bullish formation on the 1Hr chart. There's a hammer showing but waiting to see how strong the advance is to confirm it. We've also crossed the conversion line, which is a first bullish indicator. There is still a larger bearish trend showing on the 1Hr, 4Hr and Daily, but the daily has improved slightly by wicking back up into the cloud, so it no longer shows a break through in the bottom of the cloud. Price was stopped at the psychological barrier of $600 or 4000CNY. The next few hours should help to clarify whether the larger bearish trend is changing to a more bullish profile or not. My previous short was closed at $600 when price failed to penetrate and sustain the fall. There is risk here is for a sharp reversal, because some good charting from Wavescientist has shown that a second wave may finish at this support point 590-603 (exactly where we ended up). Risk here must be gauged with the potential of a reversal as today has been quite a day. 1 major support and 1 pivot point broken, pierced through $600 a few times before regaining bullish momentum. Need to monitor the changing trend over the next few days.
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by Prothius187
Will it blend?After a huge move up (2900 CNY to 5200 CNY) we are now entering what appears to be a bearish cycle. With the block halving in the back and a .5 fib level seemingly holding properly, there are two possible scenarios that might happen: Bullish: We are going to hold the trend line that has proven very important in the past 9 months. .5 fib level will hold. This results in a cup forming at around 3960 CNY as bottom. After that, we will continue to slowly rise upwards. We still need to bear in mind that in relation to the huge move that we did, we retraced only a fraction. History shows that Bitcoin fancys a good old fashioned fakeout before making a huge move upwards. Bearish: Depending on the sell pressure, the .5 fib level and the trendline of past 9 months will be broken. Even then I would see 500$ as bottom as supply shock unfolds its effect and the former resistance builds a support. I would love to see a bullish scenario, but what you wish for and what you get are usually two different things.
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by armodillo123
stabilized at 4050The drop has brought us to the pivot points at 4058. These just printed and have provided support currently. All indicators on the 1H, and 4H are bearish. The Daily is mostly bearish, though price has remained in the cloud for now. Waiting for confirmation of a new trend before re-entering a position. If price breaks this 4058 pivot, then it's possible for us to have a much greater fall to 3600. If support continues to hold, it's likely we'll see a move up towards the broken support at 4150. The strength of the support at 4150 makes this now a difficult resistance point for longs and likely for a strong bounce downward to retest this support at 4058. It's probable that we will need to continue downward further to build the bullish strength to break back upwards after reaching this price point. A short entry upon successful breaking of the 4058 support. I will wait to short until $600 on the western exchanges is broken first, as this is a round number and strong psychological barrier. A short would be looking towards $580 and then ultimately $550 if price continued. A long entry would be after indicators showed a new trend and entry point above 4150 looking towards 4300 and then ultimately 4600 if strength of the uptrend was there.
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by Prothius187
Support continues to hold after 2 more testsAfter the initial reaction push downward, there has been 2 more tests of the support at 4150. The last one a few minutes ago was the strongest and most sustained push by volume, and both tests were unable to penetrate further than 4170, both failing to reach the original 4150 point from the initial drop. Both attempts at breaking support were stopped not by buy walls, but by organic demand that created long wicks on the candles. This is identical to the last time we were at this support. Each attempt was met by ever increasing demand which finally pushed price back up. I estimate we will increase in price and pass the minor support at 4330 and back to just under the current Kumo cloud, which will also have the monthly pivot point. From here we will retest the cloud, which is beginning to thin out as we look towards the next week. It is likely that if we have picked up enough bullish energy from this drop, we will break the cloud at the thinnest point at about Aug 2-3 continuing to retest 4600. If we get a bounce from the cloud and cannot penetrate, there is a distinct possibility we will revisit 4150 again.
BLong
by Prothius187
Strong support at 4150 hitAs I thought might happen, when BTC started sliding, all indicators quickly went bearish which pushed price into the Daily cloud and then price rapidly went into free fall from there. Currently, indicators are still indicating the bearish trend, but strong support has held at 4150 once again. This is the last major support we had that was tested multiple time previously and never broke. Resistance at this point is fierce. As planned previously, I have opened a long position that I have awaited weeks to enter. My Stop loss is at 4120 just on the other side of the lowest resistance point, and see this long all the way back to test 4600. If my stop loss is hit, I will look to re-enter a long after the next major support is reached, which is currently identified as around the 3600 point.
BLong
by Prothius187
Bullish divergenceAs predicted, price has continued to ride down the cloud, but OBV and Accum are both showing bullish divergence as price continues to show lower lows and OBV and Accumulation continue to rise. CCI was signaling a new downtrend, but has returned to neutral. Waiting another 24 hr period for potential entry as the cloud will slightly ease up on price at that point. If price continues to ride the channel, then waiting to see what happens at the 4300 support will be key. If price follows the cloud upwards out of channel, then looking to Aug 3-4 when the cloud thins to a minimum for a potential break upwards.
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by Prothius187
Decision point within 1 dayBTC has created a bearish channel that it's been moving between for about 40 hours. Indicators were bearish to neutral, but bullish pressure is building in all indicators on the 4H chart. The daily chart was at risk of signaling its first bearish trend since the first drop from 780, and this may be what's helping to buoy BTC as it's riding the very top of the Kumo cloud and compressing against the Monthly pivot point, which may be why we're seeing such current volatility in the channel. So far, bulls have been unable to break into the cloud, but we need to see if the increase in bullishness is enough to finally break and hold in the cloud or higher. In approximately 20 hours the cloud on the 4H pushes more deeply into the current range and will increase bearish pressure if bulls are unable to push higher within this time frame. It is highly probable we will see a resolution to the current compression and ranging in price within that time.
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by Prothius187
Last 12 hours consolidation and compressionThe past 12 hours have seen BTC price consolidation and compression of price between the CM_pivots and previous minor support of 4370. Look for a breakout in price. Likely direction is still more probable to the downside because of the large red Ichimoku cloud above price on the 4hr chart, and the generally more bearish trend showing. But recent bullish pressure has made this less than a sure thing. OBV and Accum/Dist are showing the bullish market conditions, but CCI has failed to signal a bullish trend and sits in the middle of its range returning from a solid bearish condition. Stochastic RSI just crossed over at 94 downwards signaling a possible overbought reversal, but this signal would be stronger if other midterm bearish signals were stronger. If bulls are able to take charge, look for a breakout above 4420 and watch to see if price can breakthrough the cloud to confirm a solid bullish trend. If price breaks down with large volumes, all indicators may quickly show a powerful bearish trend, and help to drive price down rapidly, so caution here is advised. Volumes are down in the past 6 hours, so this may be coming to resolution in the next 1-6 hours (Next 2 candles). On Sunday, the Kumo presses down further into the 4370 price region, which will increase bearish pressure if price cannot move back up through the cloud in the next few days. Long wicks on both sides of this current price point do suggest this as a good equilibrium point in the short term, but definitely watch for changing equilibrium conditions in the near and mid term.
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by Prothius187
BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" Bulls Bears and Swans Oh My!In the event you were infatuated by BREXIT the big news was the opportunistic Chinese took the opportunity to devalue the Yuan on the same day. Under intense journalistic distraction, no one accused the Chinese of currency manipulation. This event makes it extremely clear that BTC can be used to foretell big FOREX moves. It foretold the giant Rand devaluation and now the Yuan. Insiders in China were aware of the impending devaluation and moved big money in and out of BTC as a value store. Relative to precious metal, BTC is a faster, easier, useful tool for instantaneous shelter from central bank moves. The China move creates a bull flag formation with a target price in the $900 neighbourhood. When? Watch volume. It has tailed off. When it picks up it will be the start of the second phase move. My time line projections suggest end of 4th quarter, 1st quarter 2017. New upside resistance is the temporal blue dash line at $800. Support short term is the blue solid at current level and long term is the red dash. A drop through $475 will result in PANIC. I have moved the PANIC ZONE up a level. Black Swans are still fluttering about and the bears are in hibernation. It's interesting to note, BREXIT, civil war in Europe, new dictatorship in Turkey, warnings about Nuclear conflagrations between Putin and NATO, all have had very little impact on the current value of BTC. War in Eastern Europe may affect the operation of two major BTC exchanges, BitStamp and BTCe. If they are planning for Armageddon then a relocation would be a seamless event. If not, major disruption in the BTC market will occur. The halving was a non-event although it points to BTC as a sound value store. There are serious world-wide financial problems looming on the horizon. The Euro is simply doomed. When? It will be an overnight event like the Lehman Brothers failure. If any large German banks fail, the party is over.... and at least one is on the edge. In the US the massive unreported problem is public workers pension imbalance. It's $4 Trillion with a T out of whack. Massive numbers of retirees will drain away all available municipal tax funds. This is simply a pot hole that won't be filled. Illinois will be the first to fall. California will be the second or third. Trump may build the wall but there will be devastation on both sides of it. If Hillary wins, the debt will be the least of our problems. Stay tuned...
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by investigator
2