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BTCUSD, 10 year notes and Gold: Are they ready to fall again?This is a simple analytic piece on Gold, Bonds and Bitcoin. After the Fed meeting yesterday, the market clearly decided the fears of low rates and weak dollar were justified, with a very dovish Fed, and gold and 10 year notes rallied (and quickly chinese buyers followed suit in BTC). The interesting part is that gold has yet again broken the recent highs, which like we were discussing in the 'Key Hidden Levels' chatroom, might be warning us that there is a Megaphone type pattern unfolding here, contrary to popular belief that this is a consolidation before a giant uptrend starts in Gold. The gap up in ZN1! is really remarkable here as well, it might give way to a very strong topping pattern soon. BTC has hit a monthly resistance, but is currently above it. I'm waiting for the month to close to more precisely determine when to short it (if at all). For now you could maybe trade shorter term long setups in it, although it might be dangerous in this climate. The bottomline is, that for gold and 10 year notes to top, we needed mass hysteria to reach the boiling point and I think this might be it. We'll need confirmation to enter shorts, but if you're long, look to trail your stop or get out, that's my personal reccomendation. The same is true for BTC longs. I'll update the chart once we get a good short setup in either of these instruments. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by IvanLabrie
29
BTC Uptrend - Multiple IdeasIdea 1 Inverted Head and Shoulders breaks up and fully retraces the dump invalidating the downtrend movement showing strength. Idea 2 Inverted Head and Shoulders breaks down continuing downward pressure and finding support ~3800+ and continues uptrend. Idea 3 Inverted Head and Shoulders breaks down continuing downward pressure, finds support ~3800 and fights resistance of previous support, loses upward pressure to a final support around 3600 before continuing uptrend. All 3 scenarios are bullish, anything below 3200 is rendered bearish. Do not trade this idea.
B
by Mt.BFX
BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" Black Swans Circlingwww.zerohedge.com More evidence of China having a currency crisis that has yet to be reported in the main stream news outlets. This surge is a Black Swan event. US buyers have taken notice and volume is increasing on the BTCUSD side (circled). But, nowhere close to the volume seen at the launch of the current November rally (blue arrow). In my last commentary which was one day prior to the Chinese led blastoff three weeks ago I could see nothing but weakness. Fundamentals have changed the technical analysis and I now see some strength. The time is right for a breakout relative to the crossing of two major trend lines, the Red line is real. The blue hash was calculated from Fibonacci analysis. And, certainly a breakout occurred. The next blue hash level may not be real resistance although it has been calculated as such. The energy from which it derives is the major blow off top that occurred in 2013. That energy may have dissipated to the point of irrelevance. That would mean that the current activity is going to lead to another blow off top. That top will be significantly higher than the current level. A BREXIT-yes will add to the energy as gold will become the strongest currency on the planet and all of Euroland will try to exit the Euro before it vaporizes. www.zerohedge.com There are signs of a teetering Eurozone bank crises II just getting started. www.zerohedge.com I have seen speculation of BTC $1000. I think that if the Black Swans land, that estimate is small. We have seen the feet of one Chinese Black Swan touch the ground and look what happened. Two more swans and there might just be enough energy to achieve orbit. That is the fundamental analysis. Technical analysis dictates moderation. The coming blue hash, if real, will be the end of this surge and a contraction to the red hash will result in wedging action which comes to an inflection point in October-November. Other than the red trend line there is no additional support at the $600 level. If there is a break in that support the next level down will be $450. On the upside the next level of resistance beyond the blue hash is in the $800 to $900 range. Due to fundamentals, I am a fully horned bull.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by investigator
1