Chart Idea - BTC.DBTC.D is in rising wedge since Nov 2022. It's getting closer to the apex area. 82% rising wedges break towards downside. It seems that BTC will chop around in this after halving period, takes liquidity from both sides, and then will have a parabolic move by Aug-Sept 2024. Once BTC.D reaches the reversal zone range of 56-58%, it should break this rising wedge if not before. It's TP should be 45.7% which is a 0.618 fib level. ALTS should rally hard in the Q4 2024 if this TA works out.
Btcdominance
BTC DOMINANCE / BTC.DGood Luck >>
• Warning •
Any deal I share does not mean that I am forcing you to enter into it, you enter in with your full risk, because I'll not gain any profits with you in the end.
The risk management of the position must comply with the stop loss.
(I am not sharing financial or investment advice, you should do your own research for your money.)
Skate To Where The Puck is Going To Be. Not Where It Has BeenThere’s a Wayne Gretzky quote that’s been repeated in thousands, and thousand meetings, PowerPoint presentations, and I’ll repeat it here, on TradingView:
"Skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been".
It’s a wonderful thought: Instead of chasing what’s already happened, try to get a step ahead! And hey: Wayne Gretzky once scored 92 goals in an 80-game season, so he must know something about success.
Gretzky explains his style of play further:
People think that to be a good player you have just to pick the puck up, deke around ninety-three guys, and take this ungodly slap shot. No!
Let the puck do all the moving and you get yourself in the right place. I don't care if you're Carl Lewis, you can't out skate that little black thing. Just move the puck: give it up, get it back, give it up. It's like Larry Bird. The hardest work he does is getting open.
The jump shot is cake!
That's all hockey is open ice. That's my whole strategy: Find Open Ice.
Chicago coach Mike Keenan said it best: "There's a spot on the ice that's no-man's land, and all the good goal scorers find it." It's a piece of frozen real estate that's just in between the defense and the forward.
Here is just a small sample of some of the quote’s more prominent appearances in business:
👉 Steve Jobs: “There’s an old Wayne Gretzky quote that I love. I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been. And we’ve always tried to do that at Apple.” (You can listen to him say it here, in the first 10 seconds of a tribute video Apple put together upon Jobs’s death, which is no doubt behind the spike in the Apple shares chart since 2011).
👉 Warren Buffett said on stock market pessimists in 2008: "In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: ‘I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been."
👉 John Roth, former CEO of Nortel in 2001: "So we’re looking at this and saying, "When the customers have money again, when will that be and which products do we have to have?" - making sure we go to where the puck is going to be."
That last one is a particularly useful reminder of the hollowness of so much corporate speak. Nortel didn’t just miss where the puck was or was going to be, it found itself stuck at home, waiting for someone to give it a lift to the rink.
Inspiration is something between us. It something is in the Open Air.
As a dozen (or so) BTC funds have been launched already, and 4th BTC Halving is in the History already, lets see the main graph to find out where we can inspire further.
A few days ago I found on TradingView this publication published by @CME_Group Bitcoin Halving 2024 – This Time It’s Different.
Thanks to @KevinSvenson_ and his Bitcoin Halving Cycle Profit script, I have to say:
"Who knows, some things may be different this time, but some things may be not".
The main graph is for BTC Market Cap Dominance (log scale). In technical terms we are near upper side of its long term bearish channel, where (based on 40-weeks cycle following each BTC halving) Q4'2024 or even early 2025 indeed is expected for Bearish continuation and further huge draw in BTC Dominance.
Bottom Line
Business has a long history of sports metaphors. Of course, there can be nothing on the charts 100% similar with Gretzky’s uncanny abilities.
Anyway, lets watch ahead of the BTC Dominance, to figure out what the market will look further from now.
Bitcoin - BTC Dominance and Fib circles todayIs #Bitcoin seeing the effects of that 618 Fib circle already ?
It is possible that it is reacting early so it can break through on support, which means we may eventually see 59K USDT with either a Wick down or Full candle... I have a Spot Buy order placed in case.
See how the last 2 Fib Circles took PA down to that level.
The BTC.D chart shows us PA Still falling, though levelling out currently...
But when Both BTC and BTC.D Fall, so do most ALTS and that is what we see this morning.
Will it continue ?
Daily BTC.D is still falling Bearish - RSI nearing Neutral
Daily BTC MACD is approaching Oversold and was rising but seems to be just been rejected off the Signal line so we may well see a further Drop
Daily RSI on BTC is still above Neutral and falling, about to cross below its own MA
The DMI, that gives us Trend Strengths, shows a lack of real direction longer Term right now. ADX shows us Trend is weak and both the DI Bull / Bear indicators are below the line of strength
Over asll...PS is resetting, just cooling off, No reason to panic
Just wait..............................
Is Bitcoin Dominance gearing up for a move ? And What about ALTSMany are asking "When will #Bitcoin push again"
And while it is impossible to say , we can get pointers from charts and the BTC.Dominance Chart here gives us an idea that BTC.D will meet Support next week, around Last week April / 1st week of May
Its a good idea to understand that just because BTC.D Rises, BTC does not always follow but the combination of the two, what ever they do, Gives us a very Good idea of where ALTS will go.
Assuming BTC.D will rise next week
BTC.D increases - BTC increases - ALTS Drop
BTC.D increases - BTC Decreases - ALTS Drop rapidly
BTC.D increases - BTC Stable - ALTS Stable
On the whole, when BTC.D rises, it is not good for ALTs.
Makes sense if you realise when BTC.D rises it is because money flow is into BITCOIN.
BUT - >
BTC.D Decreases - BTC Increases - ALTS increase Rapidly.
BTC.D Decreases - BTC Decreases - ALTS Decreases / stable
BTC.D Decreases - BTC Stable - ALTS increase.
So, ALL to watch for over the next week or so.
#USDTD 's bounce?#tether dominance chart is now on the ichimoku cloud support. Breaking this support will move #usdt dom. to lower orange box (Retest zone).This move will be good for #bitcoin #eth #sol #bnb #doge and all #altcoins .
If #usdtdom bounces here and continues rally, #btc and all #altcoins will suffer. Not financial advice.
BTC - DOMINANCE (Altseason2024)rising wedge pattern is consolidated in 3d chart
need a breakout of the lower side of the pattern in HTF as 3d chart then
btc dominance must decline 20% from here so we could tell welcome to Altseason2024.
thanks and for more ideas hit "follow" and "like"🎯
tell me in comment section when u think Altseason2024 will start
BTCDominance Elliott Waves Analysis (LONGTERM)Hello friends.
Please support my work by clicking the LIKE button👍(If you liked). Also i will appreciate for ur activity.
Everything on the chart.
The minimum requirements for the formation of an impulse in wave (C) have been completed.
Confirmation of fall - 54%.
Alternative: one more upward movement in 58-60% zone, then trend reversal.
Longterm target zone: 35 - 30%
It's not financial advice.
DYOR!
(Weekly expected flow) Volatility period: Around April 22Hello traders!
If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click “Boost”.
Have a good day.
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It appears that the fund flow in the coin market is maintaining an upward trend.
However, BTC dominance and USDT dominance are showing an increase.
The key question is whether BTC dominance can be resisted and decline in the 55.01-62.47 range and whether USDT dominance can be maintained below 4.95 or maintain a downward trend.
If that happens, the coin market is expected to see a major uptrend.
A major bull market refers to a bull market in which most coins (tokens) renew their new highs (ATH).
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(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
If it closes near the second section, it appears that a new HA-High indicator will be created.
If that happens, the key is whether there will be support near the newly created HA-High indicator.
(1W chart)
This drop shows that a new HA-High indicator is about to be created.
Accordingly, if a new HA-High indicator is created, the key is whether it can be supported and rise around it.
59053.55, the 64K point is the box-top point of the HA-High indicator on the 1M chart.
Therefore, if possible, it is important to be able to support and rise around 59053.55-64K.
If this is not the case and it falls below 56K, the selling force is expected to intensify.
I think the reason the current fluctuation range is greater than the section your finger is pointing at is because it is located in the section where the new high (ATH) was updated.
Therefore, if these sideways continue, it will eventually touch an important upward channel.
At this time, it seems likely that this year's trend will be determined by whether or not it can rise along an important upward channel.
Therefore, the movement starting from the week of April 29th through the week of July 29th is expected to be very significant.
In terms of the overall flow, the 42K-43K section is an important section.
However, if it falls below 53256.64, there is a high possibility that it will turn into a downward trend, so you need to think about a response plan.
(1D chart)
The key is whether it can receive support above the newly formed downward trend line and above 64K and rise above 70231.38.
However, if it falls along the newly created downward trend line, a new HA-Low indicator is expected to be created in the near future.
If a new HA-Low indicator is created, an important factor is whether it receives support around it.
The time to buy is when the BW indicator levels out and then rises, and when the StochRSI indicator rises from the oversold range and forms StochRSI > StochRSI EMA.
thus,
1. When the BW indicator is level and moves sideways,
2. When the StochRSI indicator rises from the oversold range and shows StochRSI > StochRSI EMA,
Buying when only one of the conditions 1 and 2 above are satisfied is an aggressive purchase and requires a quick response, so caution is required when trading.
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(BTCUSDT.P 1D chart)
I think it showed more fluctuations than the movement on the BTCUSDT chart.
As such, it is believed that the current market leadership is achieved through futures trading.
Therefore, you need a trading strategy to maintain the number of coins (tokens) you own.
Since the rebound is more than 8%, it is likely that forced liquidation will occur in both directions, so it is considered an awkward position to start trading.
Therefore, as mentioned earlier on the BTCUSDT 1D chart, I think it is necessary to check the movement of the BW indicator and StochRSI indicator and the movement at the support and resistance points drawn on the chart.
Have a good time.
thank you
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- The big picture
The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting zone, you should check the movement when this zone is touched.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
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"Altseason" tests.I want to make sure to show how right now, the only way to emerge from this market correction unscathed is to not make hasty decisions. The prices of all cryptocurrencies fell on average between -50% and -70% from the highs, following the Iranian attack on Israel, but I think this is just a decoy, given that wars bring more inflation on goods and services and the history of the Fed, which cuts or does not cut, sooner or later will end up influencing the decisions of those who invest. This correction has led the majority of the crypto sector to significant decline percentages, but we always need to remember where we started from. Prices can't always go up, sooner or later you have to sell and take a real profit and no longer a hypothetical one. I write this because I am noticing a climate of uncertainty and unfounded fear, respect for the markets is important, never underestimate situations, but exaggerating in being afraid is harmful, it blocks us and does not allow us to make decisions in a clear manner. This is why today I am writing not to make hasty decisions, if some coins have given the stop loss signal, before activating it entirely, it is necessary to think about which positions to apply it, because this decline is very similar to a panic which in the end there is no need to have.
Bitcoin dominance teasing a break above the purple channel.The fomo of people wanting to start piling into bitcoin is intensifying and we can see that here in the bitcoin dominance chart as price action is starting to poke its head above this purple channel we’ve been consolidating in for some time. For it to truly break out. Of this channel it’s gonna need to flip the tan trendline just above it to solid up port though. A rejection from that tan trendline could send bitcoin back inside the purple channel. Should it flip the tan trendline to support, you can see the dotted purple line that will lead us to the full measured move target. We can also see a dotted green measured move line from a different chart pattern to the left of that also having a price target that is close to the same range, which bolsters the probability of the purple target being reached with some nice bullish confluence. No confirmation of the breakout just yet but If we can get a full candle closing above the channel in its entirety that will likely be a bi sign that its ready to trigger. First things first is just getting part of a 1day candle body to close above the top trendline of the purple channel. SHould this confirm its breakout then we are likely to see bitcoin pump on its own while most of the alts only go sideways or have very little increase in price until bitcoin dominance has reached its full target. *not financial advice*
POO Coins are up 1.5X vs #BTC since June. HOW HIGH CAN THEY GO?This chart is of the market cap of #Altcoins divided by the marketcap of #Bitcoin.
If this ratio is going UP
Sh@tcoins (to give them their colloqiual name)
are out performing the #1 #Crypto asset.
("there is NO 2nd best.. " M. Saylor)
Risk ON.
Aka Silly season.
If this ratio is going down.
Then S coins are underperforming BTC
Bear market... S coins getting wiped out.
.... Got it?
Good.
Throwing on a Fib extension
(please draw your own chart... I am not a Fibonnaci expert by any means)
We can speculate how high,
and how much they will outperform.
and the magnitude of gains left on the table
Take Your pick of the extension level.
Or retracement Level if you are a Bitcoin Maxi, and don't believe a new ATH will be made in this ratio...
Good Luck in your speculations.
Dominance the system core- for me it has always been very complicate to explain BTC.D to peoples, because it's complicate ! lol
- it's weird to understand the moves and many factors have to be compared together an alchemy have to happen to see something happening.
- So basically to explain it, i will tell you what "we want to see" or "what we don't want to see" in the future. if the story repeats again.
1/ BTC.D have to grow up, then Altcoins will struggle down trying to find a potential bottom.
- While BTC.D grow up, BTC price have to grow up also or at least stabilize ( this is a good sign )
2 / if BTC price down and BTC.D up, it's bad, it's just the normal way ( No Divergence )
- When BTC price + BTC.D both up together, it's a kind of " inversed divergence ", it means something good gonna happens. ( get it ?)
- Basically also if USDT/USDC Dom Grow and BTC price stabilize and not goes down anymore, it's a good sign.
- Normality the normal way is : BTC up / USDT/USDC.D Down OR BTC Down / USDT/USDC.D up.
- Before we had no reason to check those Stables coins because they had not much DOM in markets, but now have to count with them.
- So While BTC.D is growing, altcoins will just make some weak moves.
- When BTC will reach is next Dominance's ATH ( witch have to be lower than last years because more concurrence )
- BTC.D will crash and ALT SEASON will start.
- it took me many years to understand that, but it's pure logic ( Fibonacci is working perfectly on it )
- again it's not easy to get it.
- if you have any questions feel free to add a comment.
Happy Tr4Ding !
🔥 Bitcoin Dominance Break Out! Watch Your Alts 🚨As of this week, the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has broken out of a 6-month consolidation period. This means that money is flowing out of altcoins into Bitcoin again.
It's difficult to predict how high BTC.D will go, but I think we can make a an educated guess by looking at the diagonal purple resistance.
Historically, bull-markets (especially for alts) started at the red arrows. Remains to be seen if it will happen again.
For now, alts are likely going to lose value against Bitcoin, especially during dumps like yesterday. Start looking to buy alts again after BTC.D hits the top resistance.
Bitcoin Dominance Update (3D)By clicking on the previous analysis, you can see the serial analysis of Bitcoin Dominance.
It seems to be inside a large diameter. It is now inside the big D wave of this diametric.
We consider two supplies to complete the D wave. In fact, from one of these two supplies, it can be rejected downwards for 40 weeks.
We have such a view on the dominance of Bitcoin.
ALTSEASON 2024/2025 overrated?With each bull market, the profitability of alts decreases compared to BTC:
2017 - 63%,
2021 - 47%,
2025 - 24% ?
Please note that the BTC bull markets so far have not included ETFs. This Black Swan can cause up to 4 times greater growth dynamics for BTC (similar to Gold in 2004).
🔥Understanding Altseason: Timing and Duration🚀✍️Altseason refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when alternative coins (altcoins) significantly outperform Bitcoin.
This phenomenon typically follows Bitcoin’s halving events, as capital begins to flow from Bitcoin into altcoins.
The most notable Altseasons occur when ALT/BTC pairs gain strong market traction.
✍️The duration and intensity of Altcoin bull runs can vary, often featuring multiple Altseasons within a single crypto bull cycle.
The most prominent Altseason generally occurs after the peak of Bitcoin’s bull run, coinciding with a surge in market participation. This phase often sees exponential growth across the board, affecting cryptocurrencies regardless of their market cap.
✍️Analyzing the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart reveals potential resistance levels between 57.23% and 58.2%. A rejection at these levels could be the catalyst for a widespread rally in the altcoin market.
Historical Perspective on Altseason:
- 2016 Altseason: Lasted approximately 546 days.
- 2020 Altseason: Spanned nearly a year, marking a 33% reduction in duration compared to 2016.
- Projected 2024 Altseason: Expected to last about 273 days, beginning between the last week of May and the first week of June 2024.
Conclusion:
The current trends in BTC Dominance, alongside historical data, suggest that the next Altseason could begin within the next 6 to 7 weeks.
Any market corrections during this period could offer strategic buying opportunities.
Note: Always conduct your own research (DYOR). The above analysis is not intended as financial advice.
Please hit the like button and share if you find this helpful.
I suggest bookmarking this chart for future reference.
#Altseason #BTCHalving
BTC.D has NEVER Broken Above This Line! Ever.Traders,
I know there's a first for everything but, as traders, we usually do our best work NOT guessing when that first will be. In this case, I have traced that descending purple TL back to sometime around November of 2016, which is nearly to the inception of dominance on this particular chart. In it's history, BTC.D has NEVER broken above our trend line with confirmation on the daily. You can observe a few wick ups but no body closes, let alone confirmation. Until we get a close above that TL with confirmation, I believe it's safe to conclude that we may see Bitcoin struggle a bit here vs. the Alts. Bitcoin needs to close above this trend line or larger cap alts, like Ethereum, will continue to outperform.
Stew
The King iz dead - long live the King!Hi mates! Im fine, thanks :)
The spirits of the forests and the imperial stormtroopers clashed in a fierce battle and the light of their suffering and rage illuminated the direction where the Great Ancient was stealthy heading. I saw it and sketched it here to bring you the truth! BEHOOOOLD!
Thy worshiperz of the Elderness will consider this heresy, but it is not!! - accept the true world without fear, but with understanding. And if this happens, press the rocket button ;)