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ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 10.12.2020📍 This chart demonstrates how sellers are now stepping in to defend the previous support which becomes resistance and how those buyers stepping against the current should be punished. The lust for continuation down is greater than many expect at first glance. With the retreat already underway, sellers are threatening for another -10% leg lower towards the $16,200 minor support structure. Buyers have managed to bottle up a lot of momentum in the initial covid leg and at the same time governments are getting more aggressive on the digital currency side. Here we can see how the long road turned to joy after a breakout on the log chart: The swing down, demands protection of $18,500 with sufficient preparation already done at the highs, play with that in mind. Because of the battlefield being so open, the attack on the lows should be clean and fast. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by ridethepig
14
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 08.12.2020📌 The "formation" of the strong resistance Here we are going to track a live example of BTC putting in a major high which will probably last into Q1 2022. My models are taking note of the outflows which are far from easy to spot: in the endgame of a swing, it takes A LOT of energy to crack resistance, the whole business involves activity. Think of the set-up in the early game as methodical and peaceful, operations this late in the swing are volatile and noisy. There are no sign of sellers across the entire tradingview platform, fortunately we can send a handful of troops forward here in advance and outguess the ceiling. Always start contrarian positions off small... and when it starts working, go massive! Let me explain this by means of s speculation system 🛠 Start small and leverage winners - from one brick build a house Reverse engineer the retail blow ups! Start with a core unit, when it starts to pay, and the drivers are working, you can add some more. Treat it like a business! In this leg, sharp sellers are in clear possession of control as long as the highs are holding and by the apparently primitive aggression from buyers we have a unique window of opportunity (*sounding like Klaus Schwab here*) to convert that control into a deep retracement. The moves from the collapse in public sector confidence via covid are starting to look over stretched and with governments introducing their own digital currencies as early as January in Europe unfortunately we are running out of time to crack the highs. On the H4 chart the flows can be seen clearly, penetrating $18,500 unlocks the floodgates and allows sellers to 'go for a stroll'. The waterfall will be almost automatic due to the inferior firepower. Buyers are in danger of being crushed... watchout. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | BTC WaterfallAn important chart update here as we approach the main targets in the leg higher. For those who have been following the live flows we forecasted earlier in the year; we have the choice of retreating and taking profits and avoiding loss of time. The question of momentum must be in some ways critical. The following diagrams show a breakdown of the previous position: Play may now go on.... a counterattack from sellers is a bold move. When major forces align and confidence in governments collapse, BTC comes down to a sort of hedge against the public sector. What I would highlight is the failure to break the previous highs with any meaningful force is very telling and sending alarm bells. 📍 "Selling their lives for the highest price" .... it is the classic death of unaware retailers. So what is in play here? Well, $20,000 resistance is quite happy to hold, and yet after a few failed attempts the train is fully loaded. FinTwit are all over this like a rash, and it appears quite understandable for we all want to sell our coins for as much as possible !!! Generally speaking, such a 5 wave "impulsive sequence" is typical and totally valid. The next chapter, a sharp retrace, seems a common occurrence as governments start to rush through their own digital currencies. We can expect politicians to become a lot harsher and more forceful with measures into 2021 and 2022 as the overwhelming reality of social programs failing hits home. Here looking for a complete retrace of the entire covid wave in the coming weeks and months. These are not the levels to build longs, those using FOMO as their weapon of choice will be punished. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by ridethepig
9
Financial Risk Cheat Sheet - How To Allocate Your Funds ProperlyHello traders. Here I present to you an important lesson of how we should all be allocating our funds. In the pyramid above, you can see the distribution of risky assets to low risk assets. Low risks are associated with low expected returns while high risks are associated with high expected returns. Investors who are not willing to take high risks have to be contented with lower returns and investors who want to achieve higher returns must be prepared to bear higher risks. This is life - but life is all about taking risks. As there are good stresses and bad stresses in life - there is also good risks and bad risks. Instead of simply saying what's good or bad, I like to use a term called, "calculated risks". By calculating your risks properly, you can learn to allocate your capital and exponentially grow your funds in a longer period of time if you take proper action. Think of this as the food pyramid. Too much sugar can be bad for you. But with just the right amount, it can be beneficial for you mentally. The Investment Risk Pyramid is an asset allocation theory and I have presented it in an easy visualization in this article. Investors can use in selecting different asset classes to diversify their portfolio according to their risk tolerance and expected returns. I highly advise many to screenshot this and hang it on their walls. It can be a good daily reminder before you press the buy or sell button. Bottom of the Pyramid: Lower Risk The base of the pyramid contains the lowest set of risky investments. These investments that have the lowest risk, because, well, they generate the lowest rates of returns. These investments are represented by the pyramid’s wide base as low-risk investments should generally constitute the bulk of your portfolio. These investments include cash and cash equivalents, money market account and money market funds, treasury bills, certificate of deposits as well as high-rated government and corporate bonds. Middle of the Pyramid: Medium Risk The middle of the pyramid contains investments of a moderate risk. Although they are riskier than the assets at the bottom of the pyramid, these investments should still be r'elatively' safe as investors all around the world also like to invest into these types of assets. They are the pinnacle of how the economy runs. These investments generally offer a stable return and capital appreciation in the longer term. These investments include income stocks and growth stocks as well as mutual funds, index funds and real estate - all necessities of life in the economy. Top of the Pyramid: Higher Risk The top of the pyramid represents high risk investments. These investments may yield large gains but may also yield large losses. Because of their speculative nature, you should only allocate money to high-risk investments if you can afford to lose them without serious repercussions. These investments include futures, options, commodities, penny stocks as well as alternative investments like precious metals and gems, collectibles, peer-to-peer lending and cryptocurrencies. The most important part of this lesson is how to allocate these funds. It is not bad to invest into risky assets, as long as you are making sure to allocate your funds properly by moving them down the pyramid! For more risk management articles, please check them below! Happy investing and trading! Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
63
4 Rules to Day Trading - Realistic Approach On How To Not LoseHello traders. So you are thinking of day trading as a career? Let's start off with the bad news: it's difficult. Good news? It's doable - if approached with the right mindset. This is a part of my risk management series that I believe many traders can benefit - new or advanced. Day trading involves buying an asset and reselling it for a profit the same day - or for swing traders, a few days. Many people turn to day trading because it’s rewarding when done correctly. But for the faint of heart, many fail to do so and give up - or lose their whole accounts. My job here is to explain to the general public that day trading is not realistic for the faint of heart; however, if you do your research, practice accordingly, day trading can lead to some serious gains. 1. Compare your expected returns The first step in limiting your losses when day trading is figuring out the expected return on all the trades you’re considering. You can use the following formula to calculate the expected return as also shown above in the diagram Once you have calculated the expected return on all of your upcoming trades, you can compare the results and choose the trades that offer the most opportunity for profit. Please refer to my previous post on how to calculate the risk reward ratio below this guide. Manage Your Risk Managing risk is incredibly important. The best way to limit your day trading losses is to manage individual trades. You should never risk more than 3-5% of your balance on one trade. People tend to go all in. Yes - it gives the maximum gains possible - but often leads to liquidations or a trap that you may never be able to get out! As an example, if you have $10,000 in your trading account, you never want to risk more than $300 on a single trade. By keeping this rule in mind, you know you’ll never lose everything if you happen to have a bad day in trading. More opportunities will come - I promise, especially if you keep this step in mind. Create a Daily Stopping Point (Risk Reward Ratio (RRR)) Here, you must decide how much you can afford to risk each day. This is very straight forward, but often missed out by many traders, including me! You have a few ways to determine this stopping point. For example, you can plan for the day to stop a trade if you lose 3 percent of your account, or, if you have three losing trades in a row, or, if you lose the sum of your average daily profits. These are just three of my favorite strategies to use. Keep in mind that if you decide to create a stopping point based on your average profits, the amount you can afford to lose will increase over time as you improve your skills. Use Stop-Loss Orders! (SUPER IMPORTANT) This is probably one of the most important ones. Even if you don't follow any of the 4 steps above, you can still reduce your total blowout loss by having a stop loss in tact. With a stop-loss order, you can minimize losses by deciding on a specific price that doesn’t go below your tolerance for risk. If the price of your trade reaches the stop-loss, you know it’s time to exit. 99% of traders forget this. I hope this post helps everyone out! Please check out my whole risk management series below!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
25
BTC prediction next 8h Hi, This is my short term view (8h) on BTCUSD. As we can see the EMA50/100/200 and MA200 are back under the bars so that gives it in my eyes a little support uptrend. As technical analysis says everything is pretty ok, from buy to strong buy from 1min to 1 month. The only bad things are the oscillators and more precisely Momentum, MACD and RSI. A: In my opinion it will go to A1 or A2 by the end of the evening (GMT+1). Everything looks good for an upwards move, it can take a little resistance (blue lines i made) but it will eventually go up again for a new try on a ATH. B: If a A fails or there will be lots of resistance then it will stay here in this part. But then I see it go up again towards the A. C: BTC needs more time to stabilize his price before going up again, eventually can take some hours but then it should take the B or A path. D: If there will be a sell-off or a sudden drop or it can't go through the resistance line it will definitely go for one of the D paths. 18100$ is u huge support line in the last days and it will bounce towards this support in the worst case but I think it will hold also if BTC touches here. These are one of my first ideas and public ideas on tradingview. Please comment your idea's, things you think might be different, mistakes I made,.. And like I said before, this is no financial advice, this is just MY view and way of thinking, I could be also wrong so please think before buying/selling/trading :) Thanks for reading
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by lolski006
How to Trade Parabolic Patterns (Will History Repeat Itself?)Hello traders. Here I would like to give my take on whether if we are in a euphoric bullish pattern: the parabolic curve. Parabolic Arc chart patterns are generated when a steep rise in prices are caused by irrational buying and intense speculation. For Bitcoin, the speculation is not based purely on the fundamentals, but more based on the fractals of what we have seen within Bitcoin's past. Although short, the history of Bitcoin's pattern has usually been generally correct - showing often similar fractals within the charts. There can always be a first in terms of breaking historical patterns, but it's important to note that we have been keeping incredibly rhyming patterns over the years. Parabolic Arc patterns continually makes higher highs and lower lows in the beginning stages but can be volatile in the exhaustion and reversal stages, especially around base 3. The reason why base 3 becomes the most profitable is because many short traders are forced out of their positions usually creating an excess steep of supply for buying. This in return drives price to base 4, which is the most profitable stage within the parabolic trend. Irrational buying in the public generates a strong rally to push prices vertically, followed by a steep sell off. Examples of this market types are the NASDAQ bullish markets during 1990–2000 (retraced 80%) and Gold prices from 2000–2011 (retraced 62%). Bitcoin did the same thing back in 2018, with retracements of over 80%. Parabolic arcs are a reversal pattern and has a very predictable outcome - if history repeats itself. As we may be approaching a breakout of a base 3, we can see incredible gains. Remember, the most important thing for this post is the historical comparisons. There is no reason for it to happen, and can change course ANY moment. Although they are predictable, they are relatively difficult to trade since the market sentiment is bullish and may be relatively tough to point reversals to trade, especially when entering unknown prices (it becomes very difficult to understand the real price of the asset). In summary, the basic ideas behind the Parabolic Arc pattern is: - Pattern is generally easy to spot but difficult to trade with excessive volatility. - Most Patterns retrace to 62–78% of its rise. 50% retracement should be the first target. - You do NOT want to overstay in your trades. This is a perfect testimony of what happened back in 2018. MANY got trapped. - Do not expect the price to return to Parabolic Arc highs for a very long time. Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by XForceGlobal
78
BTC: Aftermath of the Drop - Market Psychology & TAHello Traders. Here I would like to revisit the "big" drop we encountered after we witnessed near ATH levels. Now that we have some more data to play with, what kind of information can we pull from these levels? We have to understand this from two perspectives: 1. Market Psychology Analysis 2. Technical Analysis (Realistic) Market Psychology: We are now sandwiched between two possible supply zones - both for bears and bulls. We are still currently overbought on the NVT indicator, EVEN after that 16% drop, which can mean that we have bulls and bears who are still wanting to profit on the current bounce. I believe that we are in store for more consolidation while supply eventually outpaces the other one on either side. This means that breaking 19-20K levels within the next few weeks (although not impossible), is highly unlikely due to the possible supple zone as indicated in the chart above. One drawback of this theory is that Bitcoin has shown in history that it can stay in overbought territories for a long period of time. But let's take a moment and dissect what we can and cannot compare from the 2018 drop and the present drop. First, we are in a completely different era of trading. Bitcoin has essentially brought in a slew of new interest into technical analysis where self-fulfilling theories has developed over the past 2 years. For example, Fibonacci retracement levels is almost a staple within the trading arena. Everyone will react to a certain level, and the more that it reacts, the more the self-fulfilling prophecy becomes truer. We are also now smarter than ever when it comes to predicting the prices of Bitcoin. The market consistently tries to find new ways to outpace the market. We are much smarter than the year 2018 due to the introduction of leveraged markets. Leveraged markets gave us the ability to short the market, where as in 2018 - never existed. Technicals: 1. NVT Indicator is currently still overbought even with the 16% drop. The drawback for this as mentioned above is that Bitcoin can stay in overbought territories for long periods of time. 2. We have dropped below the EMA ribbon on the 1H, 3H, and now retesting the bottom of the ribbon on the 4H. 3. We are now retesting the newly created 618 fib level. If you are interested in learning how to enter with proper risk reward management, make sure to check out my previous post: Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by XForceGlobal
26
The Most Recommended Timeframes to Trade On (Top Down Analysis)Hello traders. Here I would like to take my take on the best timeframes (personally) that I use to trade on. This can apply to all tradable assets - especially for cryptocurrencies. Weekly Timeframe (1W): Usually one-week traders are known as longterm traders. Usually they are good at analyzing the market from a longer perspective and will usually have a portfolio that is heavily catered towards fundamentals, rather than technicals. They will hold trades from lasting from a week up to even months - and possibly up to years. The advantages to a weekly trader will be that you don't have to always watch the trade; however, it will take longer to realize profits - and that's okay by them. Many new traders tend to avoid this approach because it means longer periods of time before trades are realized. However, by many accounts, trading with a shorter-term (day trading) approach can be far more problematic to execute successfully, and it often takes traders considerably longer to develop their strategy. One-day Timeframe (1D): These are also known as swing traders. These traders hold positions from days, up to weeks. The advantages for swing traders is that they are usually more geared towards longer term profits and is comfortable with holding a trade overnight. After the trend has been determined on the weekly chart (lower highs and lower lows, for example), traders can look to enter positions on the weekly chart in a variety of ways. Many traders look to utilize price action for determining the overall trend, but indicators can absolutely be utilized here as well. 1H - 4H Timeframes (1H, 4H): These traders are usually known as 'hybrid' intra-day, day, and even swing traders. These two timeframes are usually the best to use indicators as the provide quick data and more data to help learn the process of the larger scale timeframes. These two timeframes are the epitome of creating the larger picture. These traders usually understands the concept of how markets open and closes from a day-to-day perspective. They understand the exposures of 'fake-out' signals. These traders will usually realize profits or losses quickly. After a trader has gained comfort on the longer-term chart, they can then look to move slightly shorter in their approach and desired holding times. This can introduce more variability into the trader’s approach, so risk and money management should be addressed before moving down to shorter time frames. The best time frame to trade an asset will vary depending on the trading strategy you employ to meet your specific goals. The diagram above shows the time frames used by different traders for trend identification and trade entries. This is a part of my risk management series, so if you are interested in checking out my other posts, please check below!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
21
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2020.11.21Lets start by measuring the enthusiasm, the radius of the attack by looking at the previous diagram and understand why $21,000 is key for unlocking the next chapter: All is clear...Buyers have the control, there is very little to prevent the test of fresh all time highs, meaning we need to keep an eye on the impulsive extension target at $34,820; this game is very one sided. Not only should we still be holding our longs, dear reader, but laugh and continue to add more! So, let us stick to the plan, manage the risk appropriately, watch-out for any Power Grid 'attacks' that can provide well-timed dips providing buying opportunities, we have more than enough ingredients in the pot! Back to business as usual here with a fresh round of map updates coming over the next few sessions... Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ridethepig
2
BTC: 2018-Present - Global Interest Comparison (Google Trends)Hello Traders. Since TradingView does not offer the values of key interest data in terms of specific values for Google Trends (the amount of people interested in Bitcoin?), I have decided to create the graph myself via the data pulled from Google's keyword trends for the search term, "Bitcoin". A small disclaimer: this graph is not drawn to perfect scale. It is to show the extremities of the different values shown within the timeline to show the past and current data of interest within the Google trends - which can be an alternative view of how the general public is really interested or not. Furthermore, this is a continuation of my risk management series, so I hope you take this post light heartedly and try to understand this post from a pure observational perspective and use this research to your trading advantage. In the above diagram, we are seeing a timeline of the actual interest via the search interest for the keyword, "Bitcoin" in a timespan period of five years. The point of this graph is to show an alternative view of how much interest the general public may have. As we can see, we are seeing a possible case of almost no interest within the cryptocurrency space due to possible low interests. The data suggested is showing a possible evidence that either: 1. We may set to blast through new ATHs (all time highs) due to this being a possible lagging indicator, or, 2. We may never see the same amount of interest in the near future and have a possible crash in the near future. Case number two is a high possible case for me, as well, personally; however, number one is also a highly valid and sound case. In the case of number two, we can truly dissect the real meaning of how much public interest we had back when Bitcoin hit new highs. Everyone was in Bitcoin! But looking at the current data, we must ask ourselves, "who is really invested into Bitcoin?" - Is the public interest still there? Is everyone on the sidelines? That question is only answered possibly by time. We cannot predict the future, but we can learn from our past mistakes since this post is to give an alternative view to possibly help any future traders to not make the same mistake we did in 2018. In terms of risk management, we can see that Bitcoin is currently creeping its way to our previous 2017-2018 high; however, many are now begging the question, "Is this the time to sell?" - or, "Is it time to buy?" I hope this chart shines light onto all investors and traders. The data is embedded, but how we can interpret is very tricky. If you are interested in more of my risk management posts, please check the posts below! Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by XForceGlobal
59
btceur one more week of chances to sell before parabolic crush Similar to March there will be a one week window to sell before the parabolic crush will start, that will be worse than in March. In March it was just a psychological crush - fear from uncertainties... Now there the real effects of lockdowns with millions of bankruptcies worlfwde will be visible. As well -no vacin till end of the year -new lock downs -oil war of Saudis with Russia -NoDeal Beexit -US election
Short
by viparmenia
13
Complete Guide to Bitcoin Dominance & Alt Season CyclesHello traders. Here I will be showing a simple diagram of the whole Bitcoin dominance effect towards Bitcoin and Alt coins. The diagram is extremely simplified so that anyone can refer to this chart in the future. Many people have a hard time when an alt season starts; however, understanding the few simple rules of Bitcoin dominance can help you know whether you are in a bull market or not! In the above diagram, I am showing the complete relationship between BTC Dominance (BTC.D), Bitcoin's price, and Altcoin's price. You can refer to the chart above and use it to your advantage on positioning, timing, and risk management without the whole FOMO ordeal. So, what is Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)? Bitcoin dominance is the percentage that measures Bitcoin’s share of the WHOLE cryptocurrency market capitalization measured in percentages. It is not a 100% perfect metric to use, but it helps to analyze the macro-market since many people like to refer to it - so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, and a self-fulfilling prophecy is what usually happens if everyone starts to use it. We can observe the total capital (money) flowing between alts and BTC with this chart and make some conclusions about the market’s current state. The chart above is showing that in most cases you’ll want to be in Bitcoin when Bitcoin Dominance is in an uptrend, and then be in alts when the Bitcoin Dominance is in a downtrend. We are witnessing that right now. When BTC and BTC.D rises, we psychologically assume that we want to be in Bitcoin, which then leads to a decrease in the alt coin market. For those who are interested in more risk management strategies, please look at the links below! Trade Safe! X Force
Editors' picks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
110
Why Many Continue to "Miss the Train" - Trading 101Hello Traders. Thank you so much for the overwhelming support on the last post - we reached over 1200 likes - a new record and the best post of the month on Tradingview. Here I would like to go over why we all continue to fail buying the dips time after time from a market psychology perspective. This is a big problem for many of the traders, and we are all guilty of it. Let's take a moment to discuss all of the phases as shown in the chart above. 1. Your initial signal is here but you don't take it - because you are waiting for a second confirmation, 2. You wait for a retracement so you can enter into a trade, but doesn't happen, 3. Retracement comes along at the top, but you are thinking that you have already missed the big move, 4. You long at the breakout high, then the market dumps to support, and you think that the top is already in, so you sell, 5. Then it consolidates, then pumps. Price continues up and you start panicking that your approach was wrong. You are now either positionless or have waited too long after a 300% rally. The most important part of this approach is that you must have an idea of how Bitcoin has behaved over the past years. I have made an extremely detailed plan on where we are on the timeline - which may help with many investor's buying decision: In this post above, I show that Bitcoin is currently trading in a new bull run. Retracements occur, and it's important to position yourself within the correct timeline. As you can see, with the right indicators, we can position ourself even if we feel that we "missed the train" - as long as you know and can accept we are in a new bull run. Another important aspect is understanding the concepts of accumulation. Accumulations may either lead to a dump or pump, but if you follow the correct overall trend, we can easily see that we were accumulating for the upside. It's all about positioning! This is a part of my risk management series so please make sure to look at all of the related posts for risk management. Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
22