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Bitcoin might be approaching highly volatile territoryBitcoin dropped approximately 12% from its recent highs. By doing so, it retraced toward its 50-day SMA, which acts as an important support level. In addition to that, MACD, Stochastic, and RSI started forming bearish structures on the daily chart, causing us to be very cautious. Due to that, we will pay close attention to the stock market (especially Nasdaq 100), which continues to be highly correlated with Bitcoin and may spell more trouble for cryptocurrencies if it manifests weakness. Furthermore, we will monitor volume and technical indicators to give us more clues as to where Bitcoin is headed next. Overall, our stance has not changed. We continue to think that over the past few months, we have seen one of the most deceitful bear market rallies, and Bitcoin is due to see new lows in 2023. However, it is also still premature to declare a victory. Therefore, we emphasize caution as we believe the market might be approaching a highly volatile territory. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and 50-day SMA. Yellow arrows indicate bearish breakouts below critical support levels. We will pay close attention to the 50-day SMA and its ability to stop selling pressure. If it fails, it will be bearish. Contrarily, if it succeeds, it will be bullish, and Bitcoin might attempt to retest 30 000$. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of MACD. If it breaks below the mid-point, it will bolster the bearish case. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
15
The U.S. government is unloading 1000s of BTCs into your handsIn the past five months, we showed multiple odd developments on the 1-minute charts, which included sharp upticks in the price of Bitcoin, often leading to new highs which lasted only a few seconds during the weekend or shortly after the close in the futures market (in generally illiquid markets). In addition to that, we noted that many of these price movements looked artificial and unhealthy to sustain the rally in the long term. As a result of that, combined with tight monetary policies, worsening economic conditions, and other factors that are typically bearish for risk assets like Bitcoin, we concluded that the market has not bottomed out. Accordingly, we maintained our bearish outlook beyond the short term with the notion that Bitcoin would return to its 2022 lows over time. During the same period, we noticed that sentiment among retail investors turned extremely bullish and arguably even more so than on previous rebounds. We warned about this deceitful nature of bear market rallies several times in the past year, always outlining those same developments - people getting overly bullish while dismissing the reality and surrendering to so-called “FOMO” (while telling everyone else that they are missing out on a “lifetime opportunity” if they are not invested). This theme became central to the cryptocurrency market and even stronger with the recent banking fiasco in the U.S. and Europe, prompting many people to revolt against “irresponsible” bankers and governments by buying Bitcoin. However, before the weekend (and two weeks after our warnings about retail investors ending up holding the bag), big news came out regarding the U.S. government and its sale of Bitcoins seized thanks to the Silk Road bust (a stash of about 50 000 Bitcoins). The U.S. administration reportedly sold approximately 9 861 Bitcoins valued at about $216 million in March 2023. Furthermore, the government seeks to unload the remaining 41 139 Bitcoins during the course of the current year (in multiple batches). We expect this to be conducted with the maximum benefit to the government. Moreover, if we were to take any lesson from commodity traders within the U.S. government in the past year, we would point out their successful game in the oil market, where they happened to sell oil at highs last year, only to seek a refill of Strategic Petroleum Reserves near the lower end of $70 in 2023. That leads us to speculate that the U.S. government does not foresee much higher prices (from the current level) at which it would otherwise sell its stash. Overall, we think the whole situation is growing increasingly ironic because of the fact that so many people seek to buy Bitcoin in order to get away from the system, and instead, the government will dump its holdings into their hands, leaving them with less than what they paid for at the end. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. The red and green arrows indicate particular technical developments which raise questions about the rally's sustainability (the rising price accompanied by declining volume and divergence between the price and RSI). The yellow arrow indicates an area of interest, which we will pay close attention to in the following days. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Bullish (weak trend) Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
75
Bitcoin is finding a strong resistance between $27 000 - $28 500Since our last update on Bitcoin, not much has happened in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin oscillated between $27 000 and $28 500, finding strong resistance around this level. Meanwhile, volume continued to decline, still raising a question about the rally's sustainability. Overall, the bullish trend started to weaken, turning more into a neutral one. However, we remain cautious as low liquidity in the market may cause a volatile move in either way. We previously outlined that the rebound in stocks would provide a temporary lifeline for BTCUSD. Therefore, we will continue to pay close attention to the stock market, mainly the tech sector, which stays highly correlated with Bitcoin. Sooner or later, we expect it to break down and drag cryptocurrencies with it. In fact, we would not be surprised to see investors taking profit in order to cover losses elsewhere (just like on previous occasions in gold). Thus, we stick to our previous assessment that the current rally will likely turn out to be only another bear market rally. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the 1-minute chart of BTCUSD on 24th March 2023. The yellow arrow indicates a huge spike in the price of an asset. However, the spike to $29 380 lasted about a second and is not observable on other exchanges. Therefore, it can be considered a glitch and discarded from observation. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD within the ascending channel. The green and red arrows indicate the growing price accompanied by a declining volume, which is a questionable development (as for the rally). The yellow arrow indicates the price’s return back into an ascending channel. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
30
Bitcoin Completed Its Inverse Head and Shoulders - What's Next?Bitcoin had a massive rebound (almost 50%) following the failures of Silvergate, Signature, and Silicon Valley Bank. It's hard to believe given the lack of financial stability of some banks and the uncertainty in the markets that BTC would have such a big jump within a week, but technically speaking this move is very bullish. Considering this, I could see BTC doing one of two things. 1) Mega Bull Scenario - BTC flags up here and rockets to higher highs it hasn't seen for some time 2) BTC revisits the neckline around $25k before moving upward. I personally prefer scenario 2 because I don't like seeing over-extended runs that result in extremely fast moves to the downside. Plus, it's healthier for the sustainability of the bull run to have small corrections after each strong move. I think the neckline is an ideal place to reload and prepare for the next leg up. DISCLAIMER: There is a lot of uncertainty in the markets at the moment. With a potential financial crisis brewing in the financial sector, the bullishness of this run could turn bearish very quickly. Have a plan in place just in case.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by jpbrown1023
1
BITCOIN: With the DXY Threatening to Spike, BTC Might Fall a BitI'm watching the DXY carefully. It is long overdue for bounce since peaking in September. With the DXY threatening to spike and Bitcoin jumping 66% from the $15k lows to a key resistance level at $25k, it wouldn't surprise me to watch the DXY to run for a bit while Bitcoin retraces. Naturally it makes sense if the dollar index becomes stronger that every thing measured in dollars becomes weaker. We have a possible completed 5wave pattern. If BTC were to correct from here, we could have an inverse head and shoulders setup. With things so bullish, I would be looking for a shallow right shoulder. However given the bullish sentiment around BTC and the crypto over the past 6 weeks, I would not be surprised to see a wick down to the .618 as big money tries to flush out the over-leveraged longs. BTC has fallen $500 since I started writing so we may have already begun. Be patient and don't get greedy. I'll be using the DXY and BTC/Dow price action as my barometers.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by jpbrown1023
2
Not much going on in the cryptocurrency market Not much has occurred since our previous update on Bitcoin. Therefore, we stick to our last assessment and remain bearish with price targets at $15 000 and $13 000. However, we want to reiterate that the short-term trend reversal has not been confirmed yet. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows the daily chart of MACD. We want to see it fully break below zero, bolstering bearish odds in the short term. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
28
BTC breaking outPlease 1st of all click the boost 🚀 button if you want me to post more ideas and follow me to support my work! It's absolutely for free. Don't be just a taker, be a giver! 👍🏻 Bitcoin is breaking out of this triangle 📐 to the upside so there is chance for run to 26600 and even higher. Just bought at 24869. Breaking out to the downside and reaching the Stoploss level would mean invalidation of the pattern. ENTRY : local high @ 24869 STOPLOSS (SL) : local low @ 24539 TARGET : height of the triangle projected from midpoint of the local range (BUY - SL) @ 26600 REWARD RISK RATIO (RRR) : 5.2 INVALIDATION : when SL level hit This thesis is supported by my other BTC analysis - check down below: Check my other stuff in related ideas. Please boost🚀, comment🗣️, follow me✒️, enjoy📺!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bizmark
2
BTC 🔵 or 🔴 ?Roses are red, violets are blue. Bitcoin pumping⛽ but currently being below trendline resistance. I have 2 bullish scenarios in my head how we could get to the target. Blue🔵 or red🔴? We could hit the target in few weeks anyway. Target being projection of the previous range 100%-0%, it's just measured move added to the range high (100% @ 21480). Simple yet powerful technique. See the REKTanglez😁 on pic below, and it should be clear. PS: Hover over the BIZ circle and you will find a treasure! Check my other stuff in related ideas. Please boost🚀, comment🗣️, follow me✒️, enjoy📺! ⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.
Long
by bizmark
3
BTC trendlines to watchPlease 1st of all smash the boost 🚀 button to support my work if you like it! It's absolutely for free. I would expect ₿itcoin to move between the lines inside the rising wedge at least for a while. The wedge upper edge should act as dynamic resistance, while the lower edge should act as dynamic support. Let see how it goes... 🍿 Check my other stuff in related ideas. Please boost🚀, comment🗣️, follow me✒️, enjoy📺! ⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bizmark
10
Bitcoin Bull Runs Mapped Out - $250,000 Next Potential TopTaking a look at Bitcoin's price history, I noticed a repeating 9-step pattern that the current price action has been following since it peaked in 2017. The key points to take away from this is that the final point 9 ends around the height of the previous bull run (point 1). If BTC maintains a rate of growth decay (-5.5x its previous run) for its next bull run, Bitcoin has the potential to hit $250,000 which also coincides with the top of the channel. The pattern timeline was following to the previous run precisely up to (point 7 June 2022), but I believe the FTX collapse which caused us to dip below previous channel support (yellow) delayed us some. I think we will have one more leg down if we haven't completed our 9th leg. But once we do, it's off to the races! Let me know your thoughts below. Cheers!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jpbrown1023
Bitcoin - The Price Action Doesn't Reflect the Hype (BEWARE!)This is the second bullish fed announcement we have received within a week and yet, the price is exactly where it was before the first announcement. Having consolidated above $22k for almost 3 weeks now, I would have expected us to be much higher than exactly where we started. To make matters worse, you can see where the price action has not broken out of the blue descending channel yet, and is also now below the previous orange ascending channel. We have a very big bearish Head and Shoulders set up if the price gets rejected to the downside. PROCEED WITH CAUTION: With the news we have received in these last two announcements, I would think we would be much higher than where we are. Not to mention we spiked on the news and were rejected hard at channel resistance. Something doesn't seem right to me. And given the current bearish setup we have before us, be prepared in the event that we move downward and break the neckline around $22,600. I probably won't go long until we solidly break into the channel. I will also be watching the DXY. There's good reason to think it may have a little rally of its own after correcting 14% from it's high in September which would conversely push the DJIA and Bitcoin/crypto down.
by jpbrown1023
4
BITCOIN - Greed Is In the Air With Bearish Signs of ReversalI'm watching the market cautiously at the moment. BTC is up almost 50% since its last low in December without even a 6% correction. We have had 5 consecutive higher highs, but the MACD has conversely made all consecutive lower highs. Taking a look a previous times this has happened in 2022, we had precipitous drops. Volume is also decreasing despite making higher highs. I am not sure how much more this run has left, but the risk reward favors the downside to me. Given the Fed's announcement, there is a lot of excitement in the air. With BTC pumping and holding over $20k for 2 weeks now (on bearish news of increased US regulation on crypto and the Genesis bankruptcy announcement no less), it's seems ripe for a rug pull. $21k is the first support level I would look to see how the bulls respond if we dip. But that is only the .382 Fib retracement level and BTC loves the .618 which would be $19,300. That is quite the correction. This run may hit $25,000, but it may not. Erring on the side of caution and history, I think BTC will likely test $20k-$21k before it moves on to $30k, so I'll be waiting for the correction. Trade cautiously.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by jpbrown1023