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Btceuro

Massive breakout, new fib retracement drawnedHello Wonderful person! We saw a very good break out and turned the resistant line in to proven support line, which is awesome! There are a couple of concerns with some indicators that momentum is fading off, but lets see if there will be more strength added this week. (dont forget to check the RSI). Interesting pointers are the new fib retracement that almost perfectly matches the new support line, and the current trendline is holding. It is not unheard of that we might see a correction down to the next trendline, around 12500 Euro.
by egilagre
Break trendline or break resistant line?Hello wonderful person! Now it is breakout point one way or another. Either the current trendline will hold and the resistant line is broken. OR current trendline is broken and resistant line is holding, which means next price is 12200 Euro; but might bounce at 12950 Euro (depending on the strength) My indicators point more towards a correction, and we will bounce at 12960; and might continue to the next trend line at 12200 euro. Have to wait and see what the indicators tell at that time. What is yours? As always, stay safe and sane, happy trading all!
by egilagre
Current Trendline closing in the tough resistant lineHello wonderful person! I am trying out a new way of delivering messages in the articles by having more text and symbols in the chart itself rather than writing them in the article. Hope it will be a more efficient way, but I am open for suggestion in the comment. Small conclusion about a key factor I am watching now, is the wedge between resistant line and the current trendline. One way or another, we will have a breakout from this in the next couple days (within this week). As always, please stay safe and sane in these times and happy trading!
by egilagre
correction to 12000 euro?Hello wonderful person! Incredible rally in the stock market due to vaccine news, and this might hold up to end of december. Bitcoin reacted as with gold, it took a hit. Based on the chart, there are some spinning top and a doji forming, which could form a correction. If that happens, we could look at a price target at around 12000 euro, and if it is still a bull run; this will hold. If that 12000 breaks, we are looking at a further decline to possible 11000 euro.
by egilagre
RSI Divergent, is BTC in for a correction?Hello beautiful person! I am up tonight watching the U.S election and witness live the effect it will have on the BTC during it. If you have read my previous posts, you know I have been writing about a second wave of the virus and lockdown; which will in turn affect the market negatively. I expected the second wave and more effect in September/October, so it seems I missed it there in months; but at least in Europe we are in a new lock down. How will this affect BTC? I believe that BTC is still correlated to the stock market in the sense that when we have a sell off in the markets, we will also have sell off in BTC. However, BTC will gain again shortly after. Short term bearish, long term bullish. - check the chart for more info and trend lines. - check the divergent in RSI. - added fibonacci retracement indicator for the last "bull run". Have a great night everyone, and stay safe!
by egilagre
Correction has come, but how large?Hello hello beautiful person! The divergence in RSI and other indicators have present for some time, but the FOMO in DEFI has been an amazing rally; combined with an above normal public awareness in internet and Televisions. We are seeing a correction now, but the question is: how strong, and is this the one I have been anticipating? T he chart The chart is in Heikin Ashi, NOT price candle RSI is showing divergence Stochastic is showing divergence CCI is also having divergence, but most importantly has not crossed to negative area (but in price candle chart it has) Nearest strong support is EURO 9526, which we will hit if the correction is of any noticeable strength. If it is not hit, I believe that the hype will continue until previously suggested month. Strongest support is area around EURO 8338 - 8000, which is a combined highest volume price level and previously tested support line. Conclusion There is too many moving parts in this economy now that is mixing with BTC, and makes it close to impossible to make any safe`ish TA predictions. The world are seeing a spike in the number of infections as predicted, and larger companies have reported negative financial reports as predicted. It is unknown how the nations governments will react and how the sentiment of the market will respond. The overall notion I have is that BTC will increase as well as adoption, but I am not convinced it will happen this year as many others believe. It all depends on how much the nations governments around the world can and will do in order to try and protect the bubble, because we will see more negative numbers or stagnation on balance sheets (on many of today large cap companies) this year and next year. If nations are "all in" to protect the bubble, I believe we will not see the "real" rally of BTC until next year (inflation from fiat included), but we will see a good increase in price this year. The good price increase, I would reason as a trend along with gold. Insecurities in the market and investor hedge in BTC, and precious metal.
by egilagre
2
BTC/Euro 7/21/2020Hello and welcome to this analysis on BTC/Euro. BTC has been in a very boring sideways range since the 7th of May. I choose to show the Euro pair because I believe the price action is much more visible on this pair compared to the USD pair. Looking at the consolidation on the daily chart, the price has been making series of lower highs other than the fake-out at first of Jun that price broke above its diagonal resistant but couldn't manage to hold above it and instead it got smashed back down on high volume. looking at the bottom of the range, the price has consistently tapped the horizontal support at 7900 but each bounce from the support got shorter, and at the moment it is consolidating on the support. Support and resistance tend to become weaker the more price tests them. Also, the failure to make any higher high after almost 3 months of consolidation and resting on the support is a sign of weakness and distribution. The technical formations that I mentioned are describing a classic descending triangle which is usually a bearish pattern and can act as a topping formation. The target of the pattern is at 6660 Euro if price breaks below 7900 and don't manage to regain it back. Looking at the volume you can see it has been falling since price topped at 9200 back at may and it has almost dried up. Also looking at the BBW at the bottom which is a volatility indicator you can see it has been going down and is resting at its historical lows at the moment. These 2 indicators are telling us that a very big move is likely to happen soon and they also confirm the deciding triangle pattern. BTC tends to trend for a while and move between 20 to 30% after it breaks 3 or more months-long consolidations while its volatility metrics are at the historical lows. There is not any major horizontal support below the formation from 7900 till 6900. As you can see on the volume profile there is a volume gap in that price range. So the price can rapidly move down if it breaks below the formation. Also, there should be a lot of stop losses and liquidations below the support that will get triggered and push the price lower if it breaks the 7900 support. These technical formations suggest a 15-20% drop in the price in the coming days as long as price doesn't manage to make a higher high above 9350 and break above the diagonal resistance of the formation. Hope you enjoyed this analysis, good luck trading. :)
Short
by Trader_Shayan
3
perfect rejectionHello wonderfully wonderful person! Stock markets all over have seen a large pullback. Maybe more investors have awaken and smelled the coffee? Time will tell on how the market will react now. Will it be the emotion fear that will trigger more downfall or the emotion hope that will set the market upward? Anyways, back to BTC; and it seems to be very connected to stock rather than gold as of yet, since gold I believe saw a minor upward price action. The indicators were showing a weak momentum for some time now with the horizontal movement, and it was just waiting for some nudge to either regain momentum or fall. The latter happened and let us see how far it will fall, but we have some well tested and strong support lines shown in the chart. Mind you that these will not hold if the emotion in market is fear, so dont put too much faith in these support lines. For my part, it is still too volatile and it might be that the rest of the market is catching up with the belief that the world is not yet recovered and that will keep lowering the price in market. Or this sell off is a short lived fear and people will rush in to the market to pickup more. who knows at these times, so I will be waiting a little longer on the side line with my pocket filled with some fiat, waiting for a good moment. Like i mentioned in my previous post, September or november is the turning month for me about being bull or bear. PS I am still holding BTC and stocks and have not sold out, but have sold off some in order to liquidate to have some cash at hand; in case further fall. Keep safe out there and dont invest more than you can afford to lose.
by egilagre
fake break out and sideways trading, what now?Hello hello wonderful person! What an interesting week it has been, where we have seen a fake breakout above the triangle; and now we are in horizontal move. So the market broke out of the trend line, that was just a matter of time really, but it did not break out on lower or upper side. Rather the price is trading horizontally and perfectly aligned with the volume trade profile. This indicates a very strong support line at current price, and what is left to see is the momentum; will support hold and go up or break. To check more into that I look at the: - RSI: It was in a downward trend in the daily chart, but might be moving upward. It all depends on what it will do the next two days. On the 4 hourly it is showing a sideways trend. Even when switching to Heikin Ashi, the RSI does not change much, and one should remain cautious to RSI in a sideways market. - MACD Not much to say here except it shows weakness, but a little better on the 4 hourly rather than the daily. Heikin Ashi did not reveal anything big here either. - 100 and 200 MA The 100 MA is underneath the 200 MA in both 4 hourly and in daily - Market Cap The overall market cap has not moved at all the last 7 days, and barely on last 14 days on the upside. So what? well, the market have experienced a massive upside lately; but it is not shaking my theory about delay effect aka wave 2. It is after summer and probably around September that I will make my own call about strategy ahead, based on financial numbers in September. Still believe BTC will climb this year, so I will probably look for an entry point soon for DCA (Dollar Cost Average). To sum it up... I am cautious. PS I am also looking into some of the ALTS, one in particular: ETHER. Stay safe out there and thank you for reading my ideas.
by egilagre
This is tense, but probably going to dipHello wonderful person! It has been a while since my last post, but nothing fundamental has really changed. We are still within the triangle,but in the upper region none the less, an overall upwards trendline is still holding. What is really interesting now is if that upper trendline (marked in gold) is going to hold this coming week. Changes Added trendline on RSI, Stoch and CCI Added VPVR Conclusion The RSI, Stoch and CCI are showing some signs that the momentum is not that strong, and in combinations with the stock market; I believe we will see a dip in the BTC/Euro price. The dip will retest 7038, and let us see what happens after that. when it comes to my own plans in these times, nothing changed from my previous posts, I have already liquidated some parts of my BTC holding in waiting for a dip, and I am patient. Probably will pick up some at 7038, but checking to see if it holds before entering. I have been writing about a second financial wave (downward wave) coming, and still believe it is coming and we are seeing the very beginning of it now. Since BTC has not yet been decided as a safe hedge, I do not know how BTC will perform during the second wave; but I believe BTC will rise after the second wave has washed over. PS For you guys that are going nuts about the behaviour of the stock market, and it is not really acting logically to what is happening in the market. Prices not reflecting the actual market, gold going down, companies that are hit hard by lock-down are still having increase in stock price, etc... There are three things I have noticed that I want to share with you great guys, and take it for what it is; just a theory! Traders selling good performing stocks to cover their losses . One of the cardinal rule in trading is to be in the market one way or another (can be in currencies or other assets). One way of doing that, other than bringing more fresh cash, is to sell assets that you have profit on to cover the losses you had. You never know when those performing assets go down, so it is important to take out profit when you can. This can result in safe harbour assets such as gold can drop in price, or hot bio-tech companies drop in price. Fund Managers are obliged to rebalance their portfolios to keep the asset allocation and exposure to risk correct to their fund profile . This is kinda related to the one on top, but fund managers sit on HUGE amount of value and when they start to rebalance their portfolios to cover losses or to keep true to their fund strategy, it can really affect the price in markets. What is fund strategy (asset allocation) to do in this? well, let us say that a fund has a strategy to be in 60% stocks and 40% bonds. If that fund have hit a golden goose and have great return on some stocks, it will have to rebalance in order to keep within 60-40 strategy of their total asset holding value. Stock market is based upon beliefs and feelings, and not logic. Also it is not reacted to the current time, but what they expect in future. The market is a place for feelings, and additional guessing what will happen in the near future or long term future. These estimation of the future will constantly be re-valued by the current news but will not necessary act on it the way it logically might seem to be doing. Monetary stimulus like new money being printed and thrown into the market like in US. The Fed buying up all it can, regardless if it is a fallen angel or what have you. This will give impression the market is holding, when in reality it is a facade. As always guys, stay safe and may the trading be with you!
by egilagre
1
Probably re-test previous support lineHello again Wonderful person! Hope you all have had a great time since last time, and still take it safe even though the lock-downs are easying up (at least in Europe). It has been some time since my last article due to heavy lifting in my current work, and had no extra energy to spend on the charts. Very interesting move for BTC the last couple of days, and to be honest, I did not expect this sharp incline and quick break of the upper triangle resistance line. So now what? I have included a new indicator on my charts: Commodity Channel Index, and still tweaking its moving average index (so not in the publish chart yet). My thought is to compare this CCI with the RSI and Stochastic to get a better comparison. It looks like the indicators are showing some weakness in the momentum, but overall still strong. I wish I could give you guys and myself a better reasoning, but I think we will re-test the support line: 8500, do a small "dead-cat bounce" and further re-test the support line at 7777. Also, I am open that BTC might go up a little more before the re-testing, but I am willing to take the risk and rebalance my portfolio and hold more cash to see if I can buy at a better price the next coming month. Hope you all are still sane in the lock-downs and keep safe, until next time!
by egilagre
Bitoin on HIGH ALERT -- TARGET IS $20K Bitoin on HIGH ALERT -- TARGET IS $20K In this video I talk about how Bitcoin can get to $20k and shouw you what needs to happen . I also talk about how lots of other groups in the crypto space may be overlooking this due to lack of experience and market foresigt . I am not knocking them this is just the reality . I am also not perfect after 13 years so there is no way they will be perfect after a few years . Anyway enjoy the video and please let me know your thoughts in the comments MartyBoots
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CryptoCheck-
34