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Btceuro

RSI Divergent, is BTC in for a correction?Hello beautiful person! I am up tonight watching the U.S election and witness live the effect it will have on the BTC during it. If you have read my previous posts, you know I have been writing about a second wave of the virus and lockdown; which will in turn affect the market negatively. I expected the second wave and more effect in September/October, so it seems I missed it there in months; but at least in Europe we are in a new lock down. How will this affect BTC? I believe that BTC is still correlated to the stock market in the sense that when we have a sell off in the markets, we will also have sell off in BTC. However, BTC will gain again shortly after. Short term bearish, long term bullish. - check the chart for more info and trend lines. - check the divergent in RSI. - added fibonacci retracement indicator for the last "bull run". Have a great night everyone, and stay safe!
by egilagre
Correction has come, but how large?Hello hello beautiful person! The divergence in RSI and other indicators have present for some time, but the FOMO in DEFI has been an amazing rally; combined with an above normal public awareness in internet and Televisions. We are seeing a correction now, but the question is: how strong, and is this the one I have been anticipating? T he chart The chart is in Heikin Ashi, NOT price candle RSI is showing divergence Stochastic is showing divergence CCI is also having divergence, but most importantly has not crossed to negative area (but in price candle chart it has) Nearest strong support is EURO 9526, which we will hit if the correction is of any noticeable strength. If it is not hit, I believe that the hype will continue until previously suggested month. Strongest support is area around EURO 8338 - 8000, which is a combined highest volume price level and previously tested support line. Conclusion There is too many moving parts in this economy now that is mixing with BTC, and makes it close to impossible to make any safe`ish TA predictions. The world are seeing a spike in the number of infections as predicted, and larger companies have reported negative financial reports as predicted. It is unknown how the nations governments will react and how the sentiment of the market will respond. The overall notion I have is that BTC will increase as well as adoption, but I am not convinced it will happen this year as many others believe. It all depends on how much the nations governments around the world can and will do in order to try and protect the bubble, because we will see more negative numbers or stagnation on balance sheets (on many of today large cap companies) this year and next year. If nations are "all in" to protect the bubble, I believe we will not see the "real" rally of BTC until next year (inflation from fiat included), but we will see a good increase in price this year. The good price increase, I would reason as a trend along with gold. Insecurities in the market and investor hedge in BTC, and precious metal.
by egilagre
2
BTC/Euro 7/21/2020Hello and welcome to this analysis on BTC/Euro. BTC has been in a very boring sideways range since the 7th of May. I choose to show the Euro pair because I believe the price action is much more visible on this pair compared to the USD pair. Looking at the consolidation on the daily chart, the price has been making series of lower highs other than the fake-out at first of Jun that price broke above its diagonal resistant but couldn't manage to hold above it and instead it got smashed back down on high volume. looking at the bottom of the range, the price has consistently tapped the horizontal support at 7900 but each bounce from the support got shorter, and at the moment it is consolidating on the support. Support and resistance tend to become weaker the more price tests them. Also, the failure to make any higher high after almost 3 months of consolidation and resting on the support is a sign of weakness and distribution. The technical formations that I mentioned are describing a classic descending triangle which is usually a bearish pattern and can act as a topping formation. The target of the pattern is at 6660 Euro if price breaks below 7900 and don't manage to regain it back. Looking at the volume you can see it has been falling since price topped at 9200 back at may and it has almost dried up. Also looking at the BBW at the bottom which is a volatility indicator you can see it has been going down and is resting at its historical lows at the moment. These 2 indicators are telling us that a very big move is likely to happen soon and they also confirm the deciding triangle pattern. BTC tends to trend for a while and move between 20 to 30% after it breaks 3 or more months-long consolidations while its volatility metrics are at the historical lows. There is not any major horizontal support below the formation from 7900 till 6900. As you can see on the volume profile there is a volume gap in that price range. So the price can rapidly move down if it breaks below the formation. Also, there should be a lot of stop losses and liquidations below the support that will get triggered and push the price lower if it breaks the 7900 support. These technical formations suggest a 15-20% drop in the price in the coming days as long as price doesn't manage to make a higher high above 9350 and break above the diagonal resistance of the formation. Hope you enjoyed this analysis, good luck trading. :)
Short
by Trader_Shayan
3
perfect rejectionHello wonderfully wonderful person! Stock markets all over have seen a large pullback. Maybe more investors have awaken and smelled the coffee? Time will tell on how the market will react now. Will it be the emotion fear that will trigger more downfall or the emotion hope that will set the market upward? Anyways, back to BTC; and it seems to be very connected to stock rather than gold as of yet, since gold I believe saw a minor upward price action. The indicators were showing a weak momentum for some time now with the horizontal movement, and it was just waiting for some nudge to either regain momentum or fall. The latter happened and let us see how far it will fall, but we have some well tested and strong support lines shown in the chart. Mind you that these will not hold if the emotion in market is fear, so dont put too much faith in these support lines. For my part, it is still too volatile and it might be that the rest of the market is catching up with the belief that the world is not yet recovered and that will keep lowering the price in market. Or this sell off is a short lived fear and people will rush in to the market to pickup more. who knows at these times, so I will be waiting a little longer on the side line with my pocket filled with some fiat, waiting for a good moment. Like i mentioned in my previous post, September or november is the turning month for me about being bull or bear. PS I am still holding BTC and stocks and have not sold out, but have sold off some in order to liquidate to have some cash at hand; in case further fall. Keep safe out there and dont invest more than you can afford to lose.
by egilagre
fake break out and sideways trading, what now?Hello hello wonderful person! What an interesting week it has been, where we have seen a fake breakout above the triangle; and now we are in horizontal move. So the market broke out of the trend line, that was just a matter of time really, but it did not break out on lower or upper side. Rather the price is trading horizontally and perfectly aligned with the volume trade profile. This indicates a very strong support line at current price, and what is left to see is the momentum; will support hold and go up or break. To check more into that I look at the: - RSI: It was in a downward trend in the daily chart, but might be moving upward. It all depends on what it will do the next two days. On the 4 hourly it is showing a sideways trend. Even when switching to Heikin Ashi, the RSI does not change much, and one should remain cautious to RSI in a sideways market. - MACD Not much to say here except it shows weakness, but a little better on the 4 hourly rather than the daily. Heikin Ashi did not reveal anything big here either. - 100 and 200 MA The 100 MA is underneath the 200 MA in both 4 hourly and in daily - Market Cap The overall market cap has not moved at all the last 7 days, and barely on last 14 days on the upside. So what? well, the market have experienced a massive upside lately; but it is not shaking my theory about delay effect aka wave 2. It is after summer and probably around September that I will make my own call about strategy ahead, based on financial numbers in September. Still believe BTC will climb this year, so I will probably look for an entry point soon for DCA (Dollar Cost Average). To sum it up... I am cautious. PS I am also looking into some of the ALTS, one in particular: ETHER. Stay safe out there and thank you for reading my ideas.
by egilagre
This is tense, but probably going to dipHello wonderful person! It has been a while since my last post, but nothing fundamental has really changed. We are still within the triangle,but in the upper region none the less, an overall upwards trendline is still holding. What is really interesting now is if that upper trendline (marked in gold) is going to hold this coming week. Changes Added trendline on RSI, Stoch and CCI Added VPVR Conclusion The RSI, Stoch and CCI are showing some signs that the momentum is not that strong, and in combinations with the stock market; I believe we will see a dip in the BTC/Euro price. The dip will retest 7038, and let us see what happens after that. when it comes to my own plans in these times, nothing changed from my previous posts, I have already liquidated some parts of my BTC holding in waiting for a dip, and I am patient. Probably will pick up some at 7038, but checking to see if it holds before entering. I have been writing about a second financial wave (downward wave) coming, and still believe it is coming and we are seeing the very beginning of it now. Since BTC has not yet been decided as a safe hedge, I do not know how BTC will perform during the second wave; but I believe BTC will rise after the second wave has washed over. PS For you guys that are going nuts about the behaviour of the stock market, and it is not really acting logically to what is happening in the market. Prices not reflecting the actual market, gold going down, companies that are hit hard by lock-down are still having increase in stock price, etc... There are three things I have noticed that I want to share with you great guys, and take it for what it is; just a theory! Traders selling good performing stocks to cover their losses . One of the cardinal rule in trading is to be in the market one way or another (can be in currencies or other assets). One way of doing that, other than bringing more fresh cash, is to sell assets that you have profit on to cover the losses you had. You never know when those performing assets go down, so it is important to take out profit when you can. This can result in safe harbour assets such as gold can drop in price, or hot bio-tech companies drop in price. Fund Managers are obliged to rebalance their portfolios to keep the asset allocation and exposure to risk correct to their fund profile . This is kinda related to the one on top, but fund managers sit on HUGE amount of value and when they start to rebalance their portfolios to cover losses or to keep true to their fund strategy, it can really affect the price in markets. What is fund strategy (asset allocation) to do in this? well, let us say that a fund has a strategy to be in 60% stocks and 40% bonds. If that fund have hit a golden goose and have great return on some stocks, it will have to rebalance in order to keep within 60-40 strategy of their total asset holding value. Stock market is based upon beliefs and feelings, and not logic. Also it is not reacted to the current time, but what they expect in future. The market is a place for feelings, and additional guessing what will happen in the near future or long term future. These estimation of the future will constantly be re-valued by the current news but will not necessary act on it the way it logically might seem to be doing. Monetary stimulus like new money being printed and thrown into the market like in US. The Fed buying up all it can, regardless if it is a fallen angel or what have you. This will give impression the market is holding, when in reality it is a facade. As always guys, stay safe and may the trading be with you!
by egilagre
1
Probably re-test previous support lineHello again Wonderful person! Hope you all have had a great time since last time, and still take it safe even though the lock-downs are easying up (at least in Europe). It has been some time since my last article due to heavy lifting in my current work, and had no extra energy to spend on the charts. Very interesting move for BTC the last couple of days, and to be honest, I did not expect this sharp incline and quick break of the upper triangle resistance line. So now what? I have included a new indicator on my charts: Commodity Channel Index, and still tweaking its moving average index (so not in the publish chart yet). My thought is to compare this CCI with the RSI and Stochastic to get a better comparison. It looks like the indicators are showing some weakness in the momentum, but overall still strong. I wish I could give you guys and myself a better reasoning, but I think we will re-test the support line: 8500, do a small "dead-cat bounce" and further re-test the support line at 7777. Also, I am open that BTC might go up a little more before the re-testing, but I am willing to take the risk and rebalance my portfolio and hold more cash to see if I can buy at a better price the next coming month. Hope you all are still sane in the lock-downs and keep safe, until next time!
by egilagre
Bitoin on HIGH ALERT -- TARGET IS $20K Bitoin on HIGH ALERT -- TARGET IS $20K In this video I talk about how Bitcoin can get to $20k and shouw you what needs to happen . I also talk about how lots of other groups in the crypto space may be overlooking this due to lack of experience and market foresigt . I am not knocking them this is just the reality . I am also not perfect after 13 years so there is no way they will be perfect after a few years . Anyway enjoy the video and please let me know your thoughts in the comments MartyBoots
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CryptoCheck-
34
Is this a good buy-in oppertunity?Hello there beautiful person! Hope you all are ready for a great Easter holiday, maybe a good time to enjoy life and try to forget a little bit of what happening around us; but still remaining safe. This post will be a lot shorter than previous. Changes from previous post: Added new symbols to make the chart easier to read Added support line at 6460 Added resistant line at 6826 Overall Market Reaction So there seem to be quite a jump or pump in the market, a S&P 500 alone had 10% increase from 03. April to 07.April. Other stocks like: Tesla, Google, Amazon, Beyond Meat, Facebook, Vedenta, Apple, Disney and 3M are all up, and a fair amount of up as well. Gold have had an increase as well but slowed down. It seems that this is the effect of all the printing of money and stimulus into market and companies, and I am afraid it is purely synthetic pump and it will not hold for long term. In my previous post I mentioned a second wave, and I still believe that is in the horizon. However, we are seeing a temporary pump now up to that second wave, so be cautious. Momentum of BTC I have looked at the chart with daily and 4 hourly mainly and switched between: Heikin Ashi, Candles and Renko. I have switched between these three to see if the indicators show the same or a different story. Most of my indicators are showing that this momentum is good, with exception of DMI that is not yet above the 20 threshold. The 100 MA daily crossed the 200 MA daily on the upside, which is a good sign. The triangle I drew a long time ago still holds and it is good to see that the price is moving again within this triangle. Conclusion I believe that what we are seeing now is the result of money flow into market and it is synthetic and will not hold in longer term. However, it is a good trading window for those of us that want to do active trading. For this momentum to continue or hold, it is important that the resistant line 6826 is broken and becomes new support line, or that the 6460 support line holds with trading between those two resistant and support line mentioned. Personally I am not betting that the price will hold and increase in short term (at least a month), and in best case scenario will re-test the upper triangle resistant line which now lies around 8700. So I am buying now some BTC and Ether, and will be placing my sell orders at around 8000. My stop-limit will be 6000. Whatever happens, take deep breaths and dont do anything rash and stick to your strategy. Stay safe and have a great holiday!
by egilagre
2
Second wave hitting soon?Hi there beautiful person! It has been an interesting week with some incredible money printing and movement in the markets, along with slow movement in BTC. There is a lot of speculation around now, and I thought I could throw my 2-cent speculation into the bucket as well. If you have the time and interest, I would appreciate if you read the whole article and pressed a like if you agree. If not, then have a go at the summary and have a great week ahead of you and be safe! Short summary: Market in Post 2008 crash has not been recuperated and we still have a broken system. This combined that covid-19 is hitting/affecting all markets globally, dictate that this is nowhere near the 2008 scenario and incentives and strategies in that period will not be as effective in 2020 and 2021. List of content: This is not the same situation like in 2008, rethink your strategy Second wave is coming BTC can actually retest 3500 EURO area BTC price will increase. First is small changes to the chart: Moved the resistant and support lines to better positions Changed the view to weekly to see the overall trend better Added the triangle from previous post. This is not the same situation like in 2008, rethink your strategy Many people out there are comparing this situation to the one we experienced in 2008, and are creating their strategies accordingly. That might be a mistake that will cost them dearly and possibly miss out on some great return. In 2008 it was "mainly" the banks that were hit, cause of bad house mortgage and liquidity. This scenario was rather local and did not hit the world on a global scale, an especially did not span on a lot of other market levels. Although it did affect globally to some extent, it was more or less due to connection with US market and dollar that was the reason and not the reason itself. the solution back then in 2008 was to print a lot of money and put them into banks, which worked to most extend; but did not fix it. Post 2008, aka in 2020, we are still left with a "broken" system and a market that did not fully recuperate from previous crash; whilst the value in stock market is inflated, just waiting for a needle. This time around, the catalyst/needle covid-19, has hit globally and equally across multiple market areas. This effect is therefore many magnitude greater because of snowball effects. List of a few: Unemployment is up, number of companies is falling, uncertainty and fear is increasing in people, world wide Currencies will be devalued due to overprinting, consumer market is crashing, gold and copper value is short term lowered and miners cant afford to keep business running, etc This time period we are in now will have different waves/effects, and value of different assets will react in those different waves. Second wave is coming First wave hit China first with total shut down of many important factories and airports, which did it tolls on the financial market and homes in China. First Wave continued internationally and went towards Europe, and continued to US. Second wave is now in beginning in China, where we will see the after-effect of first wave. This will further decrease the overall stock market and other assets (than in first wave) will start to gain momentum. BTC can actually retest 3500 EURO area It is because of this second wave that I believe that BTC will see a further decrease and possibly retest the 3000 Euro. One reason is that investors will need to sell off more to cover their losses in other assets. BTC price will increase. The retesting of 3500 EURO will not be a long lived level, because investors will want to buy into more BTC to diversify when the "real" after effect of helicopter money takes into effect. BTC will probably stay within the triangle for some time, when it starts to increase in price; so watch for that 9000 resistant. When? Somewhere around end of second wave, and that might be around end of summer or early fall. Shortly after BTC is increasing it will kick off a new Alt-coin race. Thank you very much for reading through all of this wall of text. Really hope you found it interesting and useful. Please, stay safe and have a great week ahead of you.
by egilagre
BTC is at a crucial point and resistant lineHello beautiful person! Just wanted to pop in and share some thoughts on the progress of BTC and market. So, the stock market seem to be still down; but GOLD and SILVER has seen almost 5-10% gain. This could indicate that investors are hedging against inflation and other means when central banks all over print massive amount of currencies and flush the market. Interestingly enough, BTC increased in price along with GOLD; which kinda seem to have a correlation now. Anyways, the thing I saw now is that the BTC price is at the lower end of the triangle I drew up earlier this month in my previous articles. If, BTC manages to cross this resistant line and hold above it for more than a couple of days; that would be a good indication that BTC is back into game for further increasing in the triangle. However, I do not think it is likely that BTC will stay within this triangle, but rather bounce off and go down towards 5550 EURO. The triangle: Triangle more zoomed in: As always, wish you the best and stay safe out there.
by egilagre