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BITCOIN - The First Clean Resistance Area, The New HH!?The consistency, the consistency, the consistency - I have mentioned it multiple times and again it is the major indication in the crypto world. As you see those last candles getting bigger and bigger after every candle, that is exactly what I mean by that but let's take a look about the current situation. First clean resistance areas: Here, around $8,000, we have the first major clean resistance area. Remember the Fibonacci party in 2018, when every high was almost exactly that Fibonacci golden ratio 62%. Currently, the first blue area just above the current price is one of the tops from the Fibo party! This level should put the price under the bigger pressure after the rally from 4k. Yes, the pressure was also around the $6k but this level got cracked pretty quickly - like a warm knife through the butter. Luckily/unfortunately this is not just a clean resistance, here we can find more interesting parts. The curve trendline: Touching points are marked as the green boxes and the fourth touch matching exactly with the strong resistance area around $8,000. This is not just a random curve trendline, to confirm that I made copy/paste and it matching exactly with the lower points on the graph. It makes an interesting curve channel where the price has drifted more than a year now. Fibonacci retracement 38% & 62%: 38% is pulled from the 2018 high point to the 2018 low point. 62% is pulled from the point where the curve trendline starts and drawn to the 2018 low point. Those together may give a slight impact, individually they should not work at the moment because of the price pump. One Fibo level can't stop this train but there is resistance, curve trendlines and now two Fibo levels which may(!!) give a possible rejection, if not, then we have also another scenario, scenario which needs a confirmation close. Soon we can find out, do this level works or not, at least it should be a pretty hard test for the price. Whenever the throwback starts, it should be smoother than the upwards movement. The scenario which needs a confirmation: IF the price can reach above the mentioned strong resistance area (blue area) and if it gets a close above of it - at least Daily candle close is needed - then we have a pretty nice breakout upwards, long-term higher high (HH) is confirmed and the next major target is another strong and clean resistance area which is also the psychological level $10000. Can't promise higher levels than that but if the consistency continues then there is also one of the key resistance just above the $12,000. Actually, it is unbelievable that I have to type in five digits numbers after I say BTC price, it happened pretty fast :) "Most people know that the outcome of a coin toss is random. If you believe the outcome is random, then you naturally expect a random outcome. Randomness implies at least some degree of uncertainty. When we accept in advance of an event that we don’t know how it will turn out, that acceptance has the effect of keeping our expectations neutral and open-minded. If you really believed in a random distribution between wins and losses, could you ever feel betrayed by the market?!" – Mark Douglas Feel free to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You! Have a nice day, Cheers! *This information is not a recommendation to go "LONG" or "SHORT", it is mostly used for educational purposes only!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by VaidoVeek
22
BITCOIN - Finally, The Trenline(s)!!Again, I'm here to give you a little overview of the current market situation. The market is very weird, BTC flying, altcoins are on the downswing (today they have started to make first steps to higher prices), the BTC price has cracked strong resistances after another, etc. Just to bring technically good levels, I'm here to make a little technical analysis. The resistance area which was around the $6,000 was on my watchlist for a while but it got weaker every time after someone made an idea post to the TradingView: "Watch this level!", "Look at $6k!!" If everybody can see those levels then market makers can use it easily . So, that's why I have been a bit cautious and haven't call any significant selling areas after the breakout from $5,500, but let's jump quickly to the current action, things can quickly change. Fiannly there is an area where is one of my favorite price action criteria, an important trendline. The black trendline which has three clean touches from last year (orange boxes). It has worked nicely as a support level and probably it plays also a significant role in the current resistance area. The significant part is the strong candle breakthrough in 2018 November. This strong candle shows that this level, this trendline is really strong because there was needed a hell of a power to push the price downwards. Now, it becomes a resistance and the price is really on the edge to make a correction so, it could be a nice area where it can start it. It should be a classical retest situation which took more than half a year! Parallel channel projection, drawn from the bodies to remove market noise! The major trendline is the bottom, copy/paste to the higher green point and we get a crossing are just above the current price with the black trendline, around $6,500. Between light blue lines - Monthly Highs/Lows There are 4 Monthly highs/lows. Not so significant but it matching exactly with our trendlines crossing area and still, it shows that the area is capable to print new lows and highs, which is a great confirmation! The round number $6,500 It played a significant role in the second half of 2018. Price drifted between 6k and 6.5k, so, an area which should be on the chart to make a crossing area a bit stronger! There are more some sloppy criteria but not so significant to mark those, only remarkable criterion is the Daily RSI Divergence , which is still on the chart! Summary: The most important criteria are the trendline, which has a really powerful candle breakthrough (break below of it) and now it should work as resistance especially after that awesome price pump, and the parallel channel crossing area. There are other criteria to make that area a bit stronger but please, be patient. As I said before, the price has cracked resistance after another and easily it can be the next one. To be more secure about the resistance, you should wait for bearish price action around the marked area, around the crossing area. Bearish price action = bearish candlestick patterns on the higher(!!) timeframes 4H or Daily, bearish chart pattern breakouts on the 1H or 4H. "If someone or something is against you and causes you pain, how are you likely to respond? You’ll feel compelled to fight, but what exactly are you fighting? The market is certainly not fighting you. Yes, the market wants your money, but it also provides you with the opportunity to take as much as you can." – Mark Douglas Hopefully, it was helpful, feel free to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You! Have a nice day, Cheers! *This information is not a recommendation to go "LONG" or "SHORT", it is mostly used for educational purposes only!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by VaidoVeek
15
BITCOIN - Is It Possible To Catch SpaceX?Now, more than four days, the Bitcoin price has danced around the first strong price level between the mentioned super-strong resistance at $5,777-$6,106. Those orange lines mark three Monthly lows from 2018: June, February and August. Yesterday the price reached almost to the $6,000 but it didn't get a close above the August low at $5,900 . Five(!) rejections from the mentioned resistance and the day got an end below the all of those marked Monthly lows plus below the Fibonacci 62% retracement level: As you see on the Daily timeframe yesterday's candle close gave us a bearish candlestick pattern called "Shooting Stars" . It got a rejection from the all three Monthly lows which now has become resistances and rejection from the Fibo level which is pulled from the 2018 September high (~$7,400) to the 2018 low (~$3,125) point. This Fibo level and those resistances have worked four times on the Daily chart - four attempts to go higher has failed, let's see what we gonna get from today's price action but looks like bulls are still trying to push the price up. Yesterday's bearish candlestick pattern was a slight indication that bears are starting to come in but slowly, slowly. Let's count a bit more subjective price action criteria than those Monthly resistances and Fibo level which should make the area around $5,900 even stronger than it looks like. Let's start from the ABC Equal waves. A little bit complicated but try to stay with me - after the rally at the beginning of the April, the BTC price made a slight throwback and the ABC waves count would start from there, from 4. April low. Slowly climbing to point A on 23. April high, another throwback and there is point B. Now, equal waves are pretty nice price action criteria which will end some movements and corrections. Currently, the waves from point 0 to A and from point B to C are equal, both lengths are $877, and the C point is exactly on the well-known resistance area around the $5,900. So, another criterion which will be an indication that the area is strong and the correction may start soon. The well-known ascending channel. Channel upper trendline has worked several times as resistance and so as now. This trendline runs through the $5,900. Yesterday, the price made a slight breakout from it but the Daily candle still got a close inside of it. So, another criterion which makes this area stronger. All criteria together: 1. Three last years Monthly lows have worked nicely as resistance levels 2. Multiple times worked ascending channel upper trendline runs through the $5,900 which should work as a resistance. 3. ABC Equal waves counting ends around the $5,900 4. Fibonacci retracement level 62% have worked nicely as resistance, especially on the Daily timeframe. 5. A bit sloppy Fibonacci extension 161% is around the $5,900. 6. And yesterday, the Bitcoin price touched those all criteria, got a rejection and this rejection and the day ends with a bearish candlestick pattern called "Shooting Star" Yes, pretty decent price action criteria but as they say, it is hard to catch a falling knife and currently, it is hard to catch a SpaceX . Actually, to me, there are no other options because of the strong resistance, it is just SO close to the current price. Obviously, the market is on the heavy bullish mode but the resistance, just above us, is also heavy as hell. So, actually, again, it looks like a pretty decent sell setup considering that area and considering that Daily bearish candle ( To make a bit more confirmed sell then there is a red line. After the red line break the sell is triggered and probably a bit more secure! ) but still, it is a little bit hesitating because of the current consistency. Consistency has a magic power on the crypto world and this magic power could easily drive the price above those orange lines, above the heavy resistance which should end above the $6,106! Oh, almost forgot, there is a gray area and there is a slightly darker gray area. The darker area is a stronger area than the others around that because of the multiple rejections to either direction and because of the strong candles breakthroughs. So, currently, we have 30 min to go to another 4H candle close, if it gets a close above the darker area, then this could be a sign that bulls just do not give up but if it falls lower than the darker area then it should be more bearish, just a slight and tiny indications to add into your analysis. Hopefully You enjoyed the post, feel free to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You! Have a nice day, Cheers! *This information is not a recommendation to go "LONG" or "SHORT", it is mostly used for educational purposes only!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by VaidoVeek
13
BITCOIN - About The Strong Resistance, Long-Term Perspective!Things have a little bit calmed down after that pump to the major mid-term target area ~$5,800, and now there is a correct time to look at the charts. I mentioned this mid-term key area almost after the pump from the $4,000 to the $5,000 and now, after multiple attempts, the "clean" area is filled, the price has reached into the previous support levels which now became resistances. This area was a major support level on the last year, multiple rejections around the $6,000 levels. Let's dig a little bit deeper into this level, the gray area. The Gray Area at $5,777 - $6,106 The gray area consists of multiple strong levels. There are two major price levels and if we count also that mentioned round number $6,000 then we get three. The area which is between the orange lines: $5,777-$5,900 This area is working currently as a resistance and as a first bigger obstacle to make another move upwards. In this area we have three Monthly lows from the past year (2018): - June low $5,777 - February low $5,873 - August low $5,900 There are also two major Fibonacci retracement levels: - 38% retracement level: pulled from the 2018 May high to the 2018 low point. - 62% golden ratio: pulled from the 2018 September high to the 2018 low point. So, the first obstacle is already really strong but that's not all! The round number , just after that orange area, $6,000 Historically, it has played a very significant role in price action. Multiple times from the last year it was on our watch list as a major support level and now, it becomes also into our watch list but as the role reversal works, it becomes on our watchlist as a resistance. So, the second important criteria in this gray area but that's not all either! The area which is between blue lines: $6,033 - $6,106 Between those numbers, we have another three set of Monthly lows which now should act as resistance levels: - July low $6,075 - September low $6,106 - October low $6,033 As you see, the gray area consists of 6 Monthly Lows from the last year, 2018. 6 times it has worked as a major monthly support level and if we add here also this significant round number, plus some perfect Fibonacci retracement levels then this area is a game changer. A break above the gray area will be a really positive sign for a long-term view. Yes, the $6,500 is also a strong area, but after the breakout above the $6,106 should trigger some powerful bullish price action. There starts to come into the watchlist previous long-term lower highs which now may become cracked with new higher highs and etc. but do not rush too much ahead because currently, the area worked first time as a resistance, remember, it was the support multiple-multiple times. We have also a pretty strong RSI Divergence on the Daily chart, and this divergence is on the super-strong area and to me, looks like the correction may start soon! Here comes the conclusion ; great, the price reached finally into the area which should play a significant role in the long-term perspective. As said, it is great but to make any mid-term BUY trades, here just under the super-strong resistance, would be a huge mistake. Now you know, that the upwards obstacle is really strong and meanwhile the price almost needs a slight correction downwards to prepare for it to make another push through the gray area. If the correction starts then obviously, I will give to you technically good areas where you can enter into the market and I can give some mid-term or short-term strong bounce areas but considering the long-term perspective, the gray area ($5,777 - $6,106) is the key!! "The consistency you seek is in your mind, not in the markets." – Mark Douglas Feel free to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You! Have a nice week, Cheers! *This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it is used for educational purposes only!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by VaidoVeek
3
BITCOIN - The Market Is Tired 2.0The BTC price has slowly climbed upwards to the important area/box. The bounce still came and the trendline still held up the price. Movement upwards came from the trendline after the Double Bottom chart pattern formation: Currently, Bitcoin price has starting to fight with the strong resistance area, as I said in my previous post, then this area is technically the most important between $5,000-$5,500 - considering my bearish viewpoints and considering technical analysis. Again, let's count those short-term reversal criteria: 1. Fibonacci golden ratio - 62% 2. Historically worked support and resistance levels (orange lines in the blue box). 3. Volatility increase has been pretty significant in this area. 4. Short-term lower low and this area looks good to make short-term lower high. 5. A possible bearish chart pattern formation - Head and Shoulders: Actually, the price has already tested the box two times and it got rejections back exactly from the lower orange line. As mentioned this volume increase then the second rejection gave us a bigger volume than the candles around of it but that is not all because the price hasn't tested the Fibonacci level, yet. Let's see, we need a little bit bigger reaction and probably a bit bigger volume should kick in just a little bit higher levels, around $5,370-$5,400, after it has touched all the criteria which are on the blue area (Fibonacci level and higher orange line). As said in my previous post, then if the Bitcoin price starting to reach into the blue box, then wait for a bearish candlestick pattern formation. More reliable bearish candlestick patterns are: Bearish Engulfing, Evening Star, Shooting Star, Railway Tracks. You should look at those patterns on the blue area and to be even more reliable pattern then those patterns have to occur on the 4H timeframe! Waiting for this bearish candlestick pattern formation is not said just for fun, because the price has climbed pretty steadily into the position where it can make a bigger bounce upwards, THROUGH the mentioned box. Consistency has been the keyword on the crypto world and it may become again into the play, here, in the strong resistance area. I start to make more frequent updates because the area is really important, do we see rejection or the tiny consistency guide the price through from the resistance, to the ~$5,800. "When you genuinely accept the risks, you will be at peace with any outcome." – Mark Douglas Feel free to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You! Have a nice week, Cheers! *This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it is used for educational purposes only! Previous analysis:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by VaidoVeek
7
BTC - Possible "Short" Opportunity!I found an area which is technically pretty strong, there could be a possible BTC short opportunity! It is not so easy to find those because of the sideways movement between $5,000-$5,500 but I have something For You! The area ($5,335 - $5,400) consists of: 1. The Fibonacci Golde ratio of 62% 2. Strong Bitcoin price area, just below the $5,400, it should work as a resistance. 3. The short-term counter trendline should act also as a resistance. Individually it isn't so significant but if this matching exactly with the mentioned area around the $5,400 then it will be one of the criteria. 4. EMA Death Cross on the 1H 5. Market structure new lower lows and possibly new lower high 6*. IF this is possible then wait for a bearish candlestick formation on the 4H timeframe. 4H timeframe candlestick patterns are the most reliable! So, there are technical indicators that this level may work as a strong Bitcoin price level for short term price reversal, and there are a little bit hidden indications that this level may hold! Feel free to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You! Have a nice weekend, Cheers! *This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it is used for educational purposes only!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by VaidoVeek
2
BITCOIN (BTC/USD) - Strong Resistance!Over the weekend the price has slowly increased and it has started to approach our major resistance area around $5,250-$5,300. Actually, we can make even a wider rejection box because currently, the price is on the pretty strong resistance level at $5,180. This area was recently a strong support level and now it has started to work as resistance but still, I think the $5,300 plays a significant role in the price structure. There meet several price action criteria which all should work as resistance levels and it would be difficult to crack it. $5,250-$5,300 rejection criteria: 1. Fibonacci retracement golden ratio 62% 2. Small wave Fibonacci extension 3. Equal ABC waves end in this box. 4. Bigger channel (blue trendlines) middle trendline starts to work as a resistance . As you see, it has been before a support level and also a resistance level. 5. The black channel trendline projection is in this area and it should work as a resistance. 6. Bear Flag (light green lines) upper trendline is inside this blue box and it should start to work also as a resistance. 7. We have a short-term lower low which indicates that the price may make a correction downwards. A lot of signs and a lot of indications that the price may take a stronger bounce downwards from the blue box or even before it because this $5,180 is a pretty strong resistance. Still, the perfect area where You should look for selling opportunities is the blue area and it would be perfect when the rejection ends with a bearish candlestick pattern on the 4H+ chart. Just in case a bullish confirmation , yes, it is a strong resistance area but it could still get cracked. So, a perfect breakout confirmation would be a 4H candle close above the blue area, it depends on the timing but let's say: a 4H candle close around $5,350 and the breakout should be confirmed! Please, take a second and support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You! Have a nice week, Best regards! *This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it is used for educational purposes only!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by VaidoVeek
4
BITCOIN - It Should Make a Pullback but Mid-Term Bias Is BearishThe short-term price structure has changed and probably we could see a correction downwards but not right now. It just looks too strange graph if it starts to go downwards right away, it doesn't match with anything, that's why I think we might see a pullback to the blue box. Yesterday we got a pretty wide candle range - around $500. The bounce downwards came from the round number area $5,500, which was on my upwards target list about a week ago. The price got a bounce downwards from there, it cracked all the major counter trendlines around this area and it made a short-term lower low, price stops at 5k. As you read, then we have a pretty high count of bearish signs from the price action perspective, so, that's why I think that the price has started a little correction downwards BUT firstly, it has to make a pullback upwards. If it starts to drop right away than it would be something ugly because as said before, it just doesn't look correct and the picture is not common if it starts to drop right now but if it starts to drop then it goes like a stone! More likely is a pullback upwards and from there it might take another leg downwards. Target is a little bit deeper, below the 5k levels. Current level support which has to hold to go to the green arrow direction: - Short-term trendlines crossing areas - Round number 5k - Multiple rejections from 5k level - 4H Hammer candlestick pattern. The bounce area might be a bit sloppy because of the drawn subjective trendlines (not precisely from wick to wick). Pullback ends/another leg downwards starts around $5,300, bearish criteria: - Overall bearishness on short-term price action - Bigger channel (blue lines) middle-trendline should work as a resistance - Gray channel upper trendline projection should work as a resistance - Fibonacci golden ratio 62% - Recently worked resistance level at $5,325 Firstly, the price has to reach there and it has to start rising from the current level. This idea becomes invalid if the price breaks lower than the current short-term low $4,900. Please, take a second and support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You! Have a nice day, Best regards! *This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it is used for educational purposes only!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by VaidoVeek
9
BITCOIN - Waiting For a Breakout!BTC price is still on the "sleep mode" and there are not any clear reversal trade opportunities, that's why we have to look at breakout trades possibilities. Bullish breakout: Over the days the price has drawn to us an Ascending Triangle. It is a bullish pattern but still, it is a triangle and there are two breakout possibilities but Ascending Triangle works better if the breakout occurs upwards, let's say - more favorable is a breakout upwards. At the moment, the price has been slightly below the lower trendline but it didn't get that momentum to go instantly lower because of the strong support level around $5,200 and now we are back in the Asc. Triangle, plus, we have a small triangle and we have a tiny breakout from there, this is not so significant but still worth to mention it! The breakout upwards, which triggers the Ascending Triangle, gets confirmed AFTER the 1H, or even better 4H, candle close above the recent highs (green rectangle). If we get a breakout upwards from the triangle then this could be a sign that we may get another short squeeze to the major target area, to the 24. June low at 2018 which now becomes resistance. There is also the black dotted line which is a channel projection from the triangle bottom trendline (works as a resistance), plus some Fibonacci Extensions matching exactly with this area. So, observe a candle close around the green box but watch out for too high close then please, do not FOMO! Bearish breakout: As I mentioned then the price has been below the triangle bottom trendline (higher black line), this makes this trendline a little bit weaker because it could be a bit sloppy, not so precise and around there is recently worked strong support level where the buyers pushing the price back up - around $5,200. So, we have to search for another confirmation area and luckily we don't have to search it too long - $5,120. It is below the lower black trendline (pulled from wicks), below the triangle, below the mentioned strong support and if it reaches into the red area and if it gets a candle close below the blue dotted line then we have made short term LL which is another indication that we have made a confirmed breakout. Bearish and bullish breakouts get confirmed AFTER the 1H or 4H candle close. Bearish targets are a little bit harder to detect but the short-term major target would be around $4,600, yes, there are some levels around 5k but those support levels depends more from the breakout candle, if it is powerful and full of volume then possibly those don't hold the price but as usual, if the price starting to approach I make updates! SUMMARY: As said there are no clear directional signs, we have to wait for breakouts and we should act after those BUT keep in mind, this is a Crypto world and this means we might get pretty easily manipulated. One manipulation scenario has been on my mind which makes bearish breakout a little bit vulnerable, the scenario would be: long squeeze downwards, sell panic, short squeeze quickly upwards to the $5,800 and THEN down! :) So, it is a risky area but hopefully, You get something from here!? Do your own research and add those analyses together to make a good decision! Please, take a second and support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE", it is my only fee from You! Have a nice day, Best regards! *This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it is used for educational purposes only!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by VaidoVeek
6
BITCOIN - A Little Overview!Again, I would like to give some confirmation areas, lately those are worked out pretty well - as on my last idea post, I pointed out one consolidation area around 5k, the price made a breakout upwards, it got a candle close confirmation and the BTC price reached into the first target which was the recent high at $5,345, so, a pretty nicely worked opportunity. After every day, after every hour, we get more data around the 5k level and this is great because we need history to read out some patterns and areas which should work and which not. Currently, we have an ascending channel, or at least we can draw it. The bottom trendline is set but the upper trendline is a bit subjective but still, I can set it pretty clearly from the 2. April high. At the moment, the channel middle line works perfectly as a resistance, two times it has got a rejection from it and if it breaks then we can add it easily into our bullish confirmation list: The bullish movement should be confirmed after the 1H candle close: - above the channel middle line (red) - above the recent high (2019 high) Let's say a candle close above $5,355, needed is the 1H candle close but perfect would be 4H candle close! There are some minor targets but can't predict any higher targets than the 2018 July low at $5,777. Overall, the area around $5,800 should act as pretty strong resistance. Okay, a bullish confirmation area is set but for next - bearish confirmation areas. As said, the channel middle line has worked nicely as resistance and if it gets a bigger rejection from the current levels then first bearish confirmation may come from altcoins. Look what they do, and if they start to go averagely below -2% to -3% (Daily) then prepare for the next bearish confirmation. The next bearish confirmation should come after the candle close below the ascending channel. Yes, it is pretty far but there are some minor support levels before it and can't give any bigger confirmations above that, above $5,120. So, a bearish confirmation comes after the 1H candle close below the ascending channel. Rising Wedge is ascending and it is a bearish pattern and so as ascending channel but it triggers after the breakout!! Please, take a second and support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE", it is my only fee from You! Have a nice day, Best regards! *This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it is used for educational purposes only! Previous analysis:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by VaidoVeek
17
BITCOIN - About the Patterns, Bearish Confirmation AreaCurrently, the price has drawn to us several chart patterns where we can start to make our technical analysis. There are marked one bigger Head and Shoulders and there are also a bit smaller inverted Head and Shoulders. That says already that it is very difficult to predict precisely how and where the price can go but let's try to guess it anyway. Head and Shoulder (green lines) pattern were actually triggered yesterday. I made also update and after that, the price falls around to the $4,750, it got a bounce from there and right now the price is started to form another pattern (pattern inside the pattern) Rising Wedge. Rising Wedge is a continuation/bearish pattern and it will trigger after the breakout below the lower trendline. It is also some sort of retest situation - we have a breakout below the H&S neckline (the lower light blue line is the neckline) and now the price retest it. If the break below the Rising Wedge bottom trendline and break below the light blue line has occurred, then we have actually pretty good sell setup but we have to keep remember that this is a 15 min. chart and 15 min. candle close confirmations are not so great, so, if we have to search confirmations from this chart then the perfect 15 min. candle close would be this candle which also ends the hour and the targets are ~$4,700 and if 4.7k breaks then ~$4,500. $4,500 is the first stronger support which consists of: - ABC waves: I started to count this from the top - Different Fibo retracement levels - The round number itself - 1H EMA200 - The curve trendline (look at it from previous analysis) We have pretty clear consolidation area - between those two light blue lines. The upper line marks shoulder tops on the H&S pattern and the lower marks inverted H&S shoulder tops. The breakout from the consolidation area would be definitely a direction indication. More favorable is a bearish move (after the mentioned breakout) and if we look at higher timeframes, then there are even more bearish signs: - We have a rejection from the Fibonacci golden ratio of 62% - Three Daily candle rejections from the round number $5,000 - On the top, we have a massive bearish Engulfing pattern on the 4H chart If we start to make breakout above the upper light blue line then the inverted H&S starts to work plus some minor signs more but overall a breakout upwards from the consolidation area can guide us into the recent top and the last target would be $5,500. Please, take a second and support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE", it is my only fee from You! Have a nice day, Best regards! *This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it is used for educational purposes only! Previous analysis:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by VaidoVeek
8
BITCOIN - About Fractal, 'Clean Areas', Reversal SignsAgain, we have to analyze current BTC price movements on the Daily chart, to be said, nothing clear, mixed signs from here from there but overall the momentum should start to slow down, or not!?! Yes, exactly, the current situation is like this! Yesterday I "warned" you that we may get another pump after the breakout from the ascending triangle to the $5,400-500 level. The price made a clean breakout and it reaches almost into these levels but most importantly it touches the Fibonacci golden retracement rate 62%. After the touch, it got a pretty high volume and the price got pushed back down, back below the well-known $5,000. Now, we have two Daily candles rejection from the strong area (light blue fat line) and yesterday's candle close gave us a bearish candlestick pattern. There start to come more signs that the price may make a correction downwards. Bearish signs: 1. Two rejections from a historically strong area 2. Two rejections from the round number $5,000 which works as a resistance level 3. Fibonacci touch and bounce back from the 62% level 4. After the rejection from those levels, we got a bearish candlestick pattern called Shooting Star. 5. We have got two short-squeeze, first one was that black candle and the second one, a bit smaller, was yesterday (yesterday's candle range was also pretty high considering the average - around $560) Actually a pretty nice sell setup on the normal market situation but right now we have to consider that power from bulls. A little bit about reversal trades - the setup may be pretty strong but if the price approaching that strong area whit massive and powerful candle then it is always riskier and unexpectable to trade this. Currently, we starting to get signs which could possibly make a reversal and the throwback may start pretty soon but.. At the moment the price is in this area where it can make easily a movement to the $6,000 or back into the $4,000. The market doesn't accept those clean areas and those strong candles, usually, it wants to fill those candle whit "normal" price movements and so as now. The price has touched the Fibo level and now it has almost a clean run to the $5,800-$6,000 but in downwards it has also that stupid clean area. The next stronger support (after the first observe) is around $4,200 but there are multiple areas where it could find a support - curve trendlines, Fibo levels etc. So, we may see, on the next days, more those high range candles - watch out for that. As said before, then there are signs that the price may take a reversal but if we look at the behavior, how it drops below the well-known 2018 support level $6,000, then this scenario is also a possibility: * Big drop, currently, big pump * Hammer after the drop, currently, Shooting Star after the pump (Same reversal candlestick patterns) As you see still, anything can happen at this current level. Yesterday, was a great sign that the lower timeframe chart pattern worked really nicely (this ascending triangle pattern) which gives me a confirmation that I can make lower timeframes analysis on the next updates. Let's collect just a little bit more data to be more precise. Please, take a second and support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE", it is my only fee from You! Have a nice day, Best regards! *This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it is used for educational purposes only! Previous analysis:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by VaidoVeek
2
BITCOIN - Again The Fibonacci??The BTC price got a very nice PUMP upwards and the Daily range hasn't been so high since 12. April 2018 - currently the Daily range is almost $1,000!! At the moment there is almost impossible to make any bigger assumption that where the price can land because the pump just happened. We catch that move nicely and to make other precise decisions then we need to collect more data to make a good technical analysis but still, we can discover some areas and behaviors from the past. First of all the strong area which is around $5,000: It has worked first time as a resistance level in September 2017 but the area is strong because of the candles breakthroughs: As you see on the image above there are only two candles managed to crack this level and those breaks have ended up with super-strong candles. Also, we can count this level as a direction indicator. If it has managed to break through from $5,000 then it has made pretty big moves to the break direction. Currently, we have got a rejection from this level and I can assume that this level holds us for a while because the market has to "breath" some time to collect another buying power which will guide us through the $5,000. The Daily range is too high already so, I can say that this was the current mid-term high but still remarkable run from bulls! The major reason why I think this could be an area where we get a rejection is the BTC price behavior from the past: The Fibonacci Power Half a year ago there were multiple idea posts where they all mentioned about the certain pattern on the crypto market and this certain "pattern"/behavior was the Fibonacci retracement golden ratio 62%. Three times the price got a rejection almost perfectly from Fib 62%. It occurred on 5. May 2018, 25. July 2018 and 4. September 2018 and NOW it comes again into the discussion ring. As said before, the $5,000 level has been historically very strong and now it becomes even stronger if we add the behavior into this area. So, definitely watch out for that, do not FOMO, do not get too excited. Ok, excited you have to be, come on this was awesome move but not too excited ;) The third obstacle which should start to work as resistance is the Daily 200EMA. Currently, the EMA200 is around $4,607 and let's see where today's candle may get a close! Above of it would be nice but still, can't make any bigger assumption after that! SUMMARY: Those were my quick thoughts and analysis after the current pump. Please do not FOMO, let the move settle down, let's collect more data from the current levels! Some small confirmation areas: A daily candle close below EMA or even below $4,500 could be definitely a bearish view. A daily candle above 200EMA would be just a small bullish sign, nothing remarkable but a big bullish sign would be a candle close above $5,000 (just in case this $5,000 level but this is unlikely) Please, take a second and support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE", it is my only fee from You! Have a nice day, Best regards! *This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it is used for educational purposes only! Previous analysis:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by VaidoVeek
6
BITCOIN Approaching The Last Down-Trendline!After my last idea, where the Morning Star was the momentum indicator on the Daily chart, the price has made some nice movements upwards and it starting to reach one of a pretty strong resistance area around $4,200. Bitcoin price has climbed upwards inside the ascending channel since 8. February. The channel has one "fake out" which includes that huge manipulation candle downwards but overall it has climbed steadily. Pretty nice consistency from buyers and now, we have 6 Weekly candles closed on the plus side. Usually, consistency is a great sign in the crypto-world - it allows to get FOMO players into the playground, etc. Okay, let's talk about the resistance area which is around $4,200 and which is the major obstacle to reach into the higher levels. Again, one of the resistance criteria is the trendline. Currently, the trendline cannot be so strong because the second touch is the manipulation high (24. February) which is not the perfect point but still, it is important to remark this because this is almost the last down-trendline, here, in the bottom. The second indication comes from the channel upper trendline . As you see on the chart, the channel upper trendline has held the price multiple times. Multiple times it has worked as a resistance level, so as now, and it makes a crossing area with the prementioned trendline. The third criterion is the recently worked resistance levels. Those highs have been mid-term higher highs and it plays a significant role in the next movements. If the price can crack those levels then it has made new mid-term higher high and this is a really good indication especially after we have cracked all the down-trendlines from the bottom. Definitely, the price can't beat this area easily, it needs a lot of buying power and if we watch those last Weekly candles then there is a possibility that the price may get it but let's see what we get from the next days. We just need(!) that power which guides us above $4,200 or this 6 Weeks consistency collapse and it will collapse pretty heavily. First indications about collapse would be a Daily bearish candlestick pattern on the current area, the second one would be a 4H candle close below the channel middle trendline (light-red area) and the third one would a 4H candle close below the channel(red area). This channel could be also a Bear Flag but I can't count it like this because of the manipulation which was 20-24 February but one thing is sure, if the higher timeframe candle gets a close below of it then it could be a pretty strong bearish confirmation. SUMMARY: I wanted to warn you and you should keep an eye on the mentioned resistance area around $4,200. We might get a correction downwards but CURRENTLY, from a price action perspective, not a single sign that this may occur. I will follow this area very carefully and if there should be a sign then I'll make an update! Please, take a second and support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE", it is my only fee from You! Have a nice day, Best regards! *This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it is used for educational purposes only! Previous analysis:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by VaidoVeek
9
BITCOIN - One Really Strong Area, Reversal/Target Areas!Yesterday, after multiple suspicious signs (in the end, they turned technically confirmed signs) and multiple mentions, the BTC price made a breakout below the consolidation area, it made a break below the Head and Shoulders pattern neckline and also the counter trendline got cracked. Now there is a question where I can buy it back or what should I do!? IF the price continues to go lower then in this idea post You can find some opportunities where You can jump back in. Yesterday, it was a nice breakout trade opportunity but now, we have to look where it gonna land and let's try to catch reversal trade opportunity. If You are short then these areas can easily be used as short-term target areas. To be said, I found two possible bounce areas and those areas are far lower than the current price but I would like to point those out, just in case. First one is a bit higher and it has a lower count of criteria. This area needs just a little bit of faith onto the BTC because technically it is decent level but if the train starts to come down then probably it doesn't stop there, yeah obviously if the big boys don't want to come into the market exactly there ;) The first possible bounce area, which can be easily a target area, is around $3,680: There are: - Fibonacci retracement golden ratio of 62% - Historically a strong support area - The last higher low. If this level holds BTC then we have still decent mid-term market structure with higher highs and higher lows. Do we want or don't want but technically we have a super-strong area around the $3,500. Multiple price action criteria showing that the price may take a direction exactly into this area where we can make reversal trades more securely than any other levels before that!! Let's start to count those criteria which matching exactly on this level: 1. The round number $3,500 should work as a support level 2. In this box, we have historically a strong area around $3,560 (blue horizontal line). It has worked as a strong support level and it has worked as a strong resistance level 3. The major counter trendline (black line) from the 2018 low point since 15. December, which acts as a support level 4. ABC equal(!) waves from the February top and the C point is exactly on the lower blue box: So far 4 criteria and they meet exactly at this lower marked area but that's not all... 5. Fibonacci Extension 127% : Again, exactly in this blue box! 6. And the final criterion is like a cherry on the top of the cake - Parallel channel projection : ...and again, EXACTLY it shows that the price may reach into this blue area which is really strong! SUMMARY: The BTC movements are usually full of surprises but those were my support/reversal/target areas. Full of surprises? Yes, maybe the price doesn't reach into these areas but to You and for me it was good to point out those levels, just in case - if the panic kicks in. If the price starts to go higher from the current area then, great, we don't need those levels , but the current market situation is a little bit messy that we almost need this throwback which should clearer the situation a bit. Do not forget to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button! Thank You! Have a nice day, Cheers! *This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it is used for educational purposes only! Previous analysis:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by VaidoVeek
1
BITCOIN - Breakout Confirmation Areas!As said previously in my analysis, the BTC price has drifted between the $3,950-$4,000 level more than 8 days with some small exceptions. The price has printed a nice consolidation area around the $4k (yellowish box) but it starts to show some weaknesses inside of this box. First of all, it is below the major counter trendline and if the 4H candle gets a close below of it then this would be the first bigger bearish sign but as you noticed then this is not the full confirmation because the price is still inside the yellowish area. The second, the third and the final bearish confirmations come as 2in1 and it comes after the 4H candle (4H candle close confirms more securely than the lower time frames candles) gets a close below the $3,940. Let's start from the beginning - after the close below $3,940 we get three breakout confirmations: 1. Break below the trendline/counter trendline: Currently, this black trendline has held the price multiple times and if it gets cracked then those counter trendline breaks have usually worked pretty nicely as short-term trend indicators. The overall and the bigger trend is still downwards (we have some signs that this could be over but not yet) and if this up-trendline gets cracked then the market starts to follow that bigger trend for a while - it depends how strong this trend is. Recently, BTC has made pretty nice movements and I could assume that this correction can't be so deep but we have to take step-by-step after the break. 2. Breakout from the consolidation ar ea: Usually, after the downtrend or after the uptrend price takes a pause which is called as a consolidation or a ranging market. Bulls and the bears fighting each other, no one can't win any bigger battles and that's why this area occurs. Now, if the price makes a breakout from either direction, currently downwards, then it will show that bears have won a battle around the area and they continue trying to push the price downwards. 3. Breakout from the bearish chart pattern called Head and Shoulder: H&S is a bearish chart pattern and it occurs at the end of the uptrend. The pattern gets valid after the candle close below the neckline. Currently, this neckline matching exactly with this consolidation box lower line and that's why I said that we get 2in1 confirmation after the candle close below $3,940 (and if it occurs right away, then we get even 3in1, because of the trendline break is also involved with this candle). On the 4H chart, EMA's 8 and 21 have made a death cross which will be a confirmation after You have seen a breakout. So, almost everything starts to line up to make a throwback (movement down) after the breakouts. The short-term targets are those blue areas below the breakout area. The price movements on the consolidation area are usually pretty unpredictable and that's why I would like to give you a bullish scenario/confirmation area. First bullish confirmation comes after the 4H(!) candle close above the $4k. So as H&S has a neckline, so other patterns have necklines as well. There starts to form a bullish chart pattern called Double Bottom: ...not a perfect one but it is readable, and it becomes valid after the neckline break which is exactly the round number $4,000. Here is also the 2in1 situation, firstly we get a breakout confirmation which triggers the bullish chart pattern and secondly we get a break above the round number. You have to watch also what the altcoins do, currently, they are all on the minus 'side' and if they start to climb above the daily zero points and BTC makes a breakout upwards above the $4k level then it would be another confirmation from altcoins - the whole market gets pumped! SUMMARY: Consolidation area is a risky and unexpectable trading area so, that's why is necessary to wait for a breakout which will guide the price into the short-term direction. Bearish scenario: A 4H candle close below $3,940 triggers 3 bearish criteria, plus we have EMA death cross. Bullish scenario: A 4H candle close above the $4,000 triggers the Double bottom chart pattern. Do not forget to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button! Thank You! Have a nice day, Cheers! *This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by VaidoVeek
25
BITCOIN Price $4,500 During This Week!!?If there are fewer manipulation movements then to predict next movements with using only technical analysis is "easily" doable - my previous analysis will prove it. Currently, the price drifting around $4,000, which was my target after the double bottom bounce from the trendline at $3,800. At the moment, this black counter trendline has worked nicely as a support level and it has given to the price several times nice momentums upwards. From price action wise, we have nice and clear higher highs and higher lows plus we haven't broken any significant bearish confirmation areas. This will lead us into the title topic - BTC Price will climb to the $4,500 during this week but why I think so? Maybe this target sounds too utopic but there are some signs, as said, the price has printed nice and clean higher highs and higher lows, altcoins are on the climbing mode and currently(!), everything looks healthy, slowly but healthy - those all indicates that the price may take another wave upwards. ...but most importantly, I think the price will go into the $4,500 during this week (+- 2 days) is the strong coincidences in this level. Several waves analysis, several channel analysis, several Fibo levels, and other price action criteria showing that the price will go and test EXACTLY this area - let's see - if the price starts to approach this level then I write more specifics about the criteria. Also, if this occurs then it would be a very strong sell setup and it is definitely a perfect area where to take out some short-term or even mid-term profits. Actually, this move has to start pretty soon and it gets confirmed after the 1H candle close above channel: The road into the mentioned area has to be pretty sharp and even the FOMO has to kick in to help to drive that price quickly upwards. There are some levels where the price should make a tiny stop, at $4,100 and $4,200, but we have seen that to make $200 dollar pump it is not hard, $200 pump and we are above those strong areas. Yes, lately we haven't seen this because of the low volume but overall this is not a question if 'they' want to do it. This scenario is ruined if the price starts to fall lower than the black counter trendline and if it gets a close around the red area or below of it. All which stays above the black counter trendline is healthy and the bullish scenario is still on the play. BTC has had 4 bullish weeks in the row, I looked up and historically BTC has made 5 weeks continues climbs so, let's see, it's a bit utopic (considering the volume) but there are some sings... Do not forget to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE button! Thank You! Have a nice day, Cheers! *This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by VaidoVeek
25
XVGBTC gains momentum + good FA & TA stateMarket analysis led us to the Verge coin. We see a combination of great news with positive indicators of technical analysis. The price of XVG has gathered upward momentum after a recent codebase release. However, relevance remains a challenge given the number of competing privacy coins. We are confident because technical analysis shows positive results. Bollinger channel is widening while we see a series of higher "lows" and lower "lows" at the price chart and price oscillator which are market with numbers. This means the price is ready for upward movement while there is a hidden bullish divergence. DMI suggest a momentum growth and volatility increase. The most common pattern "Triangle" is also here and it helps to choose the best entry point. We recommend to wait till the price comes closer to the end of the pattern and there will be an impulsive upward breakthrough. Set a delayed order to buy above 0.00000172 Sell targets are presented at the chart
XLong
by Skyrexio
BTCUSD - Bitcoin Price Forecast > 2358.13$BTCUSD - Bitcoin Price Forecast > 2358.13$. I think we haven`t found the bottom and we will have more correction to the downside with a steady impulss triggered by this fractal pattern that we are facing and the resistance line that is pushing us down. This will lead us to 2358.13$ during the spring and maybe a new ATL this year. WARNING: There might be some corrections - do not be afraid and panic buy. Important levels to watch: 3581.3 2358.13
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by UnknownUnicorn1060835