BITCOIN - Breakout Confirmation Areas!As said previously in my analysis, the BTC price has drifted between the $3,950-$4,000 level more than 8 days with some small exceptions.
The price has printed a nice consolidation area around the $4k (yellowish box) but it starts to show some weaknesses inside of this box.
First of all, it is below the major counter trendline and if the 4H candle gets a close below of it then this would be the first bigger bearish sign but as you noticed then this is not the full confirmation because the price is still inside the yellowish area.
The second, the third and the final bearish confirmations come as 2in1 and it comes after the 4H candle (4H candle close confirms more securely than the lower time frames candles) gets a close below the $3,940.
Let's start from the beginning - after the close below $3,940 we get three breakout confirmations:
1. Break below the trendline/counter trendline:
Currently, this black trendline has held the price multiple times and if it gets cracked then those counter trendline breaks have usually worked pretty nicely as short-term trend indicators. The overall and the bigger trend is still downwards (we have some signs that this could be over but not yet) and if this up-trendline gets cracked then the market starts to follow that bigger trend for a while - it depends how strong this trend is. Recently, BTC has made pretty nice movements and I could assume that this correction can't be so deep but we have to take step-by-step after the break.
2. Breakout from the consolidation ar ea:
Usually, after the downtrend or after the uptrend price takes a pause which is called as a consolidation or a ranging market. Bulls and the bears fighting each other, no one can't win any bigger battles and that's why this area occurs. Now, if the price makes a breakout from either direction, currently downwards, then it will show that bears have won a battle around the area and they continue trying to push the price downwards.
3. Breakout from the bearish chart pattern called Head and Shoulder:
H&S is a bearish chart pattern and it occurs at the end of the uptrend. The pattern gets valid after the candle close below the neckline. Currently, this neckline matching exactly with this consolidation box lower line and that's why I said that we get 2in1 confirmation after the candle close below $3,940 (and if it occurs right away, then we get even 3in1, because of the trendline break is also involved with this candle).
On the 4H chart, EMA's 8 and 21 have made a death cross which will be a confirmation after You have seen a breakout. So, almost everything starts to line up to make a throwback (movement down) after the breakouts. The short-term targets are those blue areas below the breakout area.
The price movements on the consolidation area are usually pretty unpredictable and that's why I would like to give you a bullish scenario/confirmation area.
First bullish confirmation comes after the 4H(!) candle close above the $4k. So as H&S has a neckline, so other patterns have necklines as well. There starts to form a bullish chart pattern called Double Bottom:
...not a perfect one but it is readable, and it becomes valid after the neckline break which is exactly the round number $4,000. Here is also the 2in1 situation, firstly we get a breakout confirmation which triggers the bullish chart pattern and secondly we get a break above the round number.
You have to watch also what the altcoins do, currently, they are all on the minus 'side' and if they start to climb above the daily zero points and BTC makes a breakout upwards above the $4k level then it would be another confirmation from altcoins - the whole market gets pumped!
SUMMARY: Consolidation area is a risky and unexpectable trading area so, that's why is necessary to wait for a breakout which will guide the price into the short-term direction.
Bearish scenario: A 4H candle close below $3,940 triggers 3 bearish criteria, plus we have EMA death cross.
Bullish scenario: A 4H candle close above the $4,000 triggers the Double bottom chart pattern.
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Btcprice
BITCOIN Price $4,500 During This Week!!?If there are fewer manipulation movements then to predict next movements with using only technical analysis is "easily" doable - my previous analysis will prove it.
Currently, the price drifting around $4,000, which was my target after the double bottom bounce from the trendline at $3,800. At the moment, this black counter trendline has worked nicely as a support level and it has given to the price several times nice momentums upwards.
From price action wise, we have nice and clear higher highs and higher lows plus we haven't broken any significant bearish confirmation areas.
This will lead us into the title topic - BTC Price will climb to the $4,500 during this week but why I think so?
Maybe this target sounds too utopic but there are some signs, as said, the price has printed nice and clean higher highs and higher lows, altcoins are on the climbing mode and currently(!), everything looks healthy, slowly but healthy - those all indicates that the price may take another wave upwards.
...but most importantly, I think the price will go into the $4,500 during this week (+- 2 days) is the strong coincidences in this level. Several waves analysis, several channel analysis, several Fibo levels, and other price action criteria showing that the price will go and test EXACTLY this area - let's see - if the price starts to approach this level then I write more specifics about the criteria. Also, if this occurs then it would be a very strong sell setup and it is definitely a perfect area where to take out some short-term or even mid-term profits.
Actually, this move has to start pretty soon and it gets confirmed after the 1H candle close above channel:
The road into the mentioned area has to be pretty sharp and even the FOMO has to kick in to help to drive that price quickly upwards. There are some levels where the price should make a tiny stop, at $4,100 and $4,200, but we have seen that to make $200 dollar pump it is not hard, $200 pump and we are above those strong areas. Yes, lately we haven't seen this because of the low volume but overall this is not a question if 'they' want to do it.
This scenario is ruined if the price starts to fall lower than the black counter trendline and if it gets a close around the red area or below of it. All which stays above the black counter trendline is healthy and the bullish scenario is still on the play. BTC has had 4 bullish weeks in the row, I looked up and historically BTC has made 5 weeks continues climbs so, let's see, it's a bit utopic (considering the volume) but there are some sings...
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XVGBTC gains momentum + good FA & TA stateMarket analysis led us to the Verge coin. We see a combination of great news with positive indicators of technical analysis.
The price of XVG has gathered upward momentum after a recent codebase release. However, relevance remains a challenge given the number of competing privacy coins. We are confident because technical analysis shows positive results.
Bollinger channel is widening while we see a series of higher "lows" and lower "lows" at the price chart and price oscillator which are market with numbers. This means the price is ready for upward movement while there is a hidden bullish divergence. DMI suggest a momentum growth and volatility increase. The most common pattern "Triangle" is also here and it helps to choose the best entry point. We recommend to wait till the price comes closer to the end of the pattern and there will be an impulsive upward breakthrough.
Set a delayed order to buy above 0.00000172
Sell targets are presented at the chart
BTCUSD - Bitcoin Price Forecast > 2358.13$BTCUSD - Bitcoin Price Forecast > 2358.13$. I think we haven`t found the bottom and we will have more correction to the downside with a steady impulss triggered by this fractal pattern that we are facing and the resistance line that is pushing us down. This will lead us to 2358.13$ during the spring and maybe a new ATL this year.
WARNING: There might be some corrections - do not be afraid and panic buy.
Important levels to watch:
3581.3
2358.13
BTCUSD left-centered 2-month cycles still in play ?Hi folks,
As we know already, BTC seems to have a Macro cycle of about 4 years length from ATH to ATH.
But there is an overlaid smaller cycle structure for the price-movement of BTCUSD on a time scale of approx. 2 months.
Currently, as we are correcting or in a bear market, these cycles are left-centerd, i.e. the price top occurs at the beginning of the cycle and then moves down to the end.
Graph above shows a possible indication of the small cycles in play, it's off course all about getng the right start/end dates for the cycle-periods !
What I want to suggest is, that maybe we are not out of the woods yet and price may head south a little more..
What I want to see is a right-centered cycle, which would be indicative for a new bullish movement (price top occurs to the end of cycle, together with a sharpe increase and then correction, Elliott-wavyisch...).
As always, just guesswork here. Please always DYOR before taking investment decisions.
cheers
Neutral volume/price analysis on Bitcoin day chart BitStampI'm illustrating this just to mostly illustrate a point about use of volume in price analysis. Bitcoin right now seems to be a battle of small groups or single people perhaps even who are both trying hard to influence market here. Perhaps a semi-larger group (maybe miners again or exchanges) are trying to support price. One large seller or a small group seems to be trying to hunt for stop-losses and or break support lines long enough to influence more downside. Hope this helps someone, this is just my thinking and ideas. DYOR!
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Small symm. triangle on 2h BTCUSD chart - bullish continuationAfter the last big green candle breakout from the ascending triangle formation with resistance line at 4090-4100 USD, the price action shows short-term oscillation around the 4100 USD level with converging amplitudes.
Probably a continuation pattern for the up-trend. Breakout to occur expectedly within the next hours to the upside. Next Levels: 4350-4450 USD/BTC.
Let's cross fingers ;)
Sym. Triangle transformed to Ascending T. on BTCUSD chart The previous symmetric triangle formation played out to the upside and the lower trendline together with the current price resistance at ~4090-4100 USD/BTC forms now an ascending triangle, which is usually a continuation pattern and breakout should be bullish.
Expected positive price development in the following days, possible breakout above the ~4400 level (neckline of the reversed H&S pattern, that we see forming since over a month)
BTCUSD: Larger Picture shows symm. Triangle formationLooking at the larger picture of the BTC/USD price-breakdown one can see a symmetrical Triangle formation (all time frames).
Trading range is narrowing
Volume gets increasingly lower from Nov 15 to now.
Apex of the Triangle to be reached around Jan 1st, 2019
Breakout direction cannot be ascertained, though a continuation of trend is common for this chart pattern and that would mean headin' south...
Bitcoin: Macro Trendcorn looks bearish to me. consistent lower highs. could argue the last weekly was higher than two weekly candles ago, but that isn't convincing in light of the macro trend.
3k was front run, but it won't get front run on the retest. whales took profit in the 4ks and are sending the corn down another leg.
1.8k seems likely.
BITCOIN - Technically a Perfect BUY Setup Around $3,530-$3,635!!Hey followers and other TradingView users.
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During this rally upwards, the price has made important higher highs on the price action structure. It has made short-term HH's & HL's and higher timeframe HH's.
We fought heavily with the $4,000 level. Multiple attempts to break higher than $4,100 and lower than $4,000. We got bearish signs from the higher timeframes and the price did a breakout downwards from the triangle and it got a candle close below the $4,000. This move guides the price downwards around $3,760, currently, we can say that this is short-term higher low but I think we might see a bounce downwards from the current level at $3,900.
This area just below the $4,000 is very strong . Like I said before we had several attempts to break lower than $4,000 but the price got rejections from $3,950. Now, when the price is lower than this level then it starts to work as a resistance - just a simple role reversal.
If it finds resistance from the current area (around $3,900-$3,950) then there would be perfect right and left shoulders on the bearish chart pattern called "Head & Shoulders". This pattern will guide us to the major bounce area around the blue area (green circle). The price range for that bounce area would be between $3,530-$3,635.
The bounce area is a well known strong area, statistic wise 20 attempts to break through and only 2 of them were successful. Now I think if we reach into this area we will see a bounce if something strange doesn't happen at the same time.
The bounce area criteria at $3,530-$3,635:
1 . The trend is Your friend and the short-term trend is bullish so, we would like to search some bullish setups.
2 . The super strong price level starts to work as strong support (blue area)
3 . ABC throwback would be perfect endpoint from the top to make another leg upwards.
4 . Different FIB levels inside the green circle and yes, the golden ratio 62% retracement level is also on the circle.
5 . In my opinion, one of the best Harmonic chart pattern Chypher (which will be easily a continuation pattern) endpoint is on the circle!
6 . Different timeframe EMA's should act as support levels.
7 . If we got a rejection from the mentioned area and this setup ends with a bullish candlestick pattern , then it would be seventh confirmation!
Currently, we got just an hour ago a little pump upwards with the altcoins support but still, I believe, if You want to get a perfect entry point I would suggest to watch this area!
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Previous Idea Post:
BTC-USD not out of the woods. Strong downward channel still hereI believe BTC-USD is not out of the woods. Strong downward channel still in place. Latest rally would have to intensify and lift BTC price above ~4500 USD/BTC in the following days. If not I think the larger trend will kick in again and bring BTC down below 2000 USD in the next month to come...
Bearish Divergence also visible on the RSI
BTCUSD: Update on the Great Wall of Bitcoin crumpling. The arrow of blood is nearly fullfilled. As it is nearing the first target of 2700, the waves are finishing with satisfiable closings. What does this mean?
Possible some time to breathe for the friends of BTC ahead, with room to 6500. But only one possibility. The other: Any acceleration under 2700 and we are most likely in the endgame already, with no time left to distribute.
Summary: Could be friendlier up to six months, but next target ist still two digits. And could be endgame already. Sorry.
Another symmetric Triangle close imminent for BTCUSD on the 2hAnother symmetric Triangle close is imminent for BTCUSD on the 2h-chart. I expect the break-out to be on the downside, the symmetric triangle being a continuation pattern.
Next accumulation territory: ~3000 USD/BTC
Pattern should resolve within the next 24-36 hs
cheers