BTC running out of steamA quick TA on the BTCUSD charts!
In the past weeks, quite clearly we are seeing price action of BTC within a narrowing upward channel, holding quite diligently to the 50MA (in green).
However, we are starting to see weakness in the bulls as volume seems to be diminishing, and a clear MACD divergence printed. The ADX is also starting to show signs of weakness in momentum, and smaller DI divergence.
According to this analysis, unless the bulls come in strong, the likelihood of a 'distribution period' (see wyckoff market cycles) may be in play. We may see a 'spring' attempt to breakout from the narrowing upward channel only to result in a fakeout, followed by a dramatic markdown. Alternatively, if the 50MA and lower support trendline fails, the markdown may be sooner.
Btcshorts
Bitcoin Shorts approaching all time highs againAs the price of Bitcoin continues to grind higher the Bitcoin Shorts are also climbing higher and may soon reach into the all time highs again. Somebody is seriously wrong, who is it? Me? You? Us? Them? Stay tuned...….
Below is a look at the current short positions.
Bitcoin areas to watchBtc continues its rise after its golden cross. Sorry for all the lines, but I think each of those levels are important areas to watch. Btc pushed through its previous high, and continues its bullish trend . Looks to be working its way to $6000. I like the $6500 area as it is the level of the last high before we broke down below the $6000 area. So far is has pushed up to $5800 which is where some lows were from back in Nov of '17 and March '18, and June of '18. As I have been saying recently as long as Btc is over $5350 the chart continues to stay very bullish. It seems to ty trying to find new support in the $5500-5600 area. Very bullish if this can continue to hold.
Shorts haven't really changed either, so there is still a good chance we could even still see a short squeeze, as shorts have to be in substantial pain with these moves. On top of that funding rates to borrow BTC on bitfinex are hitting 100% annualized. At these rates a 10x short gets liquidated in a month even if BTC doesn't move. So, it is possible a short squeeze could commence as shorts pile on around and just under the $6k area. Then shorts get forced to cover and we see a squeeze as BTC pumps to $6500-7000. Then btc takes a breather and pulls back after the shorts get rekt.
Bearish Wedge Plays Out Nicely! Here's what they won't tell you!WOOOOAAAH ! What a time in crypto. As I have lined out here the bearish wedge played out nicely and what a good time it is to be short. Market sentiment was rather bullish and as expected a correction was due. What kills me is the moon fans that seem to never learn but instead follow their favorite YT personality. The 2 scenarios I saw a lot on here was we are going to the moon or I'm shorting at 6k.
Yet, when traders seem to have the same idea the opposite occurs. With so many traders waiting for BTC to reach 6k to short, the market proves it's time to start shorting now.Being stopped out several times during this uptrend it was the smarter move to keep entering short positions. The problem with new traders is first they're long then they're short what no clear direction of which way this market may turn. the typical mindset is I see A GOLDEN CROSS and now it's TIME TO BUY. After seeing this huge mega candle we shall see where the market takes us before entering into a trade.
Take care and trade responsibly.
- Meta
BTC Shorts Monitoringi do this to Monitor peoples Shorting BTC to try to identify where they can push up again and make a bear trap.
Shorts broke their up trend.
They stay under Ichimoku Red Snow.
Rejected on EMAs 50 and 100.
following a rude downtrend.
BTC still in a good mod for now.
Happy Tr4Ding !
BTC - One more impulse down likelyGood afternoon traders,
After predicting another bearish impulse down in my previous analysis, I am predicting another one in the coming hours. I apologize for the messy chart, but your seeing what I actively use to trade, no cleaned up marketing material, the real deal.
I am expecting some sort of significant move to happen within the next 12 hours.
My bias is currently down, I will start with volume analysis:
Since this is an active trade, I am using smaller time frames, but I will speak to the 4 hour after this segment.
If we take a look at the three circles I've drawn on the chart below, we can see that we had a legitimate bottom buying at the first circle, a breakout attempt at the second circle, and what seems to be another breakout attempt happening now, albeit much less volume .
The previous failed attempt you can see we broke down, I am expecting something similar to happen here in the coming hours as asian Monday session rolls around and the european nightly session ends.
This leads me to believe that this will be the last upward thrust attempt, I have entered short, albeit a little early upon reflection. I will closely monitor the position to make sure it does not get away from me.
4HR Bearish Key Points:
1) Studying the 4 hour chart you can see we've entered in a flag range over the weekend, 4 hour lagging span has crossed downwards, which is what we can expect as the necessary thrust for the downward move within the larger impulse.
2) We are stalling at the .618 of the bearish impulse downwards (5136) , this tells me that another bearish impulse down is likely.
3) RSI is ranging, and is having trouble breaking its average, this tells me the bulls are not yet ready for a break upwards.
4) SlowStoch is signaling rejection of a bullish crossing.
5) MACD shows over-extension of the asset. It was looking to bearishly cross, but has re-accelerated, this tells me that the next push down should be powerful.
6) VFI is showing signs of flattening, and this will need to be watched closely over the coming hours, as this is generally my 'contrarian' indicator.
Trading plan:
I have entered into a short position, rather soon, but I will hold it. I have entered close enough to resistances that a 1% stop loss shall remain in place.
I will look to target the previous low of the current bearish impulse @ 4934. If I see bullish divergences, I will exit the trade. If I see a high volume higher low, I will exit the trade.
My take profit #2 will be the 200 day SMA .
If all goes to plan, I will then look to enter long upon confirmation of the 200 SMA on the daily acting as support.
Contrarily,
The asset has shown to be extremely bullish since its break upwards. Any counter-trend trade, such as this, must be monitored closely for failure, do not short without stop losses in place.
As always, if you like my content, please hit the "Like" and "Follow" button. Additionally, you can always receive my updates by going to settings, notifications, check receive email updates, and follow this idea.
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to join the Cryptocrew discord @ discord.gg to join the discussion.
BTCUSD 200MA TEST ONCE AGAIN
BTCUSD struggling and the weekly chart was closed below a powerfull resistance line which means we need a re-test of a 200MA which is situated at 3400-3409$. Stochastic RSI is overbought and probably in the next week we will have a bearish cross.
At RSI we see clearly,was rejected.
In my opinion bottom was hitted BUT we need to test once again 200MA. Good luck
BTC Shorts LOW - What this really meansBTC Shorts have dropped (indicating that traders expect BTC to increase in value) into an area that for exactly a year now has provided both strong support and a good indicator that BTC is actually about to fall in value.
BTC Shorts went below 21500 only three times last year... in May, July and November - when traders bet that BTC would increase in value. Instead, on all three occasions BTC was just about to experience a substantial drop in value.
May 2018 - BTC at $10000 - falls to $6000 - a drop of $4000 or 40%
July 2018 - BTC at $8500 - falls to $6000 - a drop of $2500 or 30%
Nov 2018 - BTC at $6500 - falls to $3250 - a drop of $3250 or 50%
Feb 2019 - BTC at $4000 - possible fall to $2600 support area - a drop of $1400 or 35%
Please give me a thumbs up and follow me if you found my analysis interesting.
This is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
BTC Shorts indicating a drop may be imminentIt pays to be a contrarian and never is this proved better than the BTC Shorts chart. In most cases, when it peaks into a resistance area shown in blue (and traders are betting that BTC will drop ) BTC rises or at least moves sideways. More telling is when the shorts fall down to a support area shown in pink (and traders are predicting BTC will rise ) ... BTC has tended to begin a violent drop .
Essentially more often than not, BTC does the opposite of what the masses are predicting = be a contrarian.
BTC is now approaching this support area yet again, IF this plays out as before we can expect a big drop in BTC to be imminent. I would imagine something in the $2500 area to be feasible.
At the very least, this is something to be aware of when making your own Technical Analysis.
Please give me a thumbs up and follow me if you found my analysis interesting.
This is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
BTC shorts vs price. Another drop coming! or new bottom?
Hi all I am looking to history BTCUSD shorts. In history there is some similarities, look at 2.Aug, 1.Sep, 12.Nov. This dates is very important, in this days a lot of people start shorts BTC, and price in usd go down rapidly, 23%, 16% and 50%.
Now is situation similar, If we bounce from line on shorts, can be drop like in history, a lot of shorters are waiting if price above 4000usd hold and Head and shoulders will be confirmed. If BTC dont break 4250usd soon, drop here will be resolution I think.
If we fall around 20% 800usd from 4000usd, we can created double bottom on 3200usd, if drop will be more than 20% we can get new bottom.
Important resistance which we need break soon
My bottomed Idea is 2688usd
This is my own idea, if you have some another ,please leave in comments.
Dont forgot for some action here :) like, comment, follow.
I will be update it. Thank you
Thank you
Ascending triangle with rising baseline | Short-term bullishAs I had stated before a short term ascending triangle has formed and looks dominate. It could be a strong bottom argument. Only time will tell.
The ascending triangle as in all triangle patterns can be used as trend
reversals. It must be noted that the ascending triangle must form at a
key level of support or resistance, I like to use double tops or bottoms.
This pattern forms as price pushes into support or resistance and then
consolidates making equal highs and higher lows forming the ascending
triangle, Once price breaks the pattern conforming the reversal, I personally
always wait for a pullback to the previous highs or lows to see if price will
be resisted or supported before taking a reversal trade. There are different
methods Like Fibonacci Retracements to find targets after a confirmed
reversol but I will lay out the conventional way which is the Distance
Between The Mouth Of The Triangle Added To The Breakout.