BITCOIN Channel Up or Log Curve? Which will prevail long-term?Two weeks ago I made a case about how Bitcoin's short-term trend was depended on which Channel pattern of the following would prevail, the Channel Up or Channel Down:
The price action emphatically showed that the Channel Up prevailed as BTC held the Higher Lows trend-line as a Support and bounced exactly on it. On today's analysis, I am making a case on a new Channel Up this time on the (very) long-term and how possible it is that it prevails over Bitcoin's historic Logarithmic Curve/ Channel
** Channel Up vs Logarithmic Curve **
As you see on the main chart, since the November 2013 High, BTC has formed a Channel Up, which has held both its Higher Highs (peaks of Cycles) and Higher Lows (bottoms of Cycles). Before that though, the price started trading on a Logarithmic Curve (the only pattern that could 'catch' Bitcoin's immense growth in its early years). Notice how the April 2021 All Time High (ATH) reached and got rejected exactly on the top of the Logarithmic Curve. Does that mean that this will prevail over the Channel Up and BTC already has peak and entered a new Bear Cycle. Until broken to the upside, it seems like it, but there is a dynamic that suggests otherwise and that has to do with the Fibonacci extensions.
** Fibonacci extensions. Cyclical and All Time **
As shown on the chart, the Top of the 2013 Cycle was just below the 2.382 Fibonacci Extension, so was the Top of the 2017 Cycle (all measured from the Top-Bottom of the previous Cycle. In fact, if we take only one Top-Bottom measure from the 2011 Cycle, we will see that the 2013 and 2017 Cycle Peaks have been just under the 2.383 and 3.383 Fibonacci extensions. The next (4.382) is also very close to the 2.383 Fib extension of the 2018 Cycle. I call this metric "the All Time Fibonacci extensions" and I've published an idea about those a few months back.
** Conclusion **
Naturally, if the Logarithmic Curve breaks to the upside, that would mean that the Channel Up prevails but with the issue in question being what's more likely to happen, in my opinion there are more probabilities for the Channel Up, due to the edge given by the All Time Fibonacci extensions. So the argument a long-term investor who is already in the market and is looking for the next long-term buy is either buy once the Log Curve breaks or on the next contact with the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). In either case a realistic target can be within the $200k - $300k range (i.e. bottom band slightly below the 2.382 Cyclical Fib ext and upper band slightly above the 4.382 All Time Fib ext).
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Btcsignals
BTCBTC - I am seeing this possiblity unfolding , we are coming out of a bearish ABC up which is most likely W1 of the larger trend to start W2 which should restest key support levels at $44-$45k respectfully. That will lead us into W3 heading towards $58-$63k and the W4 & W5 can be determined once the W3 is finshed
Bitcoin Cup And Handle Breakout! Massive move incoming?Hey fame, what's up?
First of all, if you haven't read my last Bitcoin analysis regarding Cup & Handle pattern, please do check the last idea regarding Bitcoin in my profile.
- I posted a few days ago my view on Bitcoin, as I said in that idea BTC is forming Cup And Handle pattern and there's a high probability it gonna break out soon. Here we go, the move on the upside we seen today was insane.
What's next?
Well, price breakout from the handle and that's a lead pattern to move one more step toward playing out. If it goes well, we will see the price at new highs soon and that will be the clue of bullish cycle continuation. As a trader, Apart from the Price action, you should pay attention to many other factors like FA, onchain data also. These things will add weight to your trading plan with high success rate.
Alright, that's all this kid can do for you LOl. please hit the like button and do-follow. Any questions and suggestions, comment section is yours!
BITCOIN Triangle. A sign of an upcoming rally?Those who follow me for quite a long time here on Tradingview and in the past on Reddit, know that I very often utilize fractal dynamic on my technical analysis. The most recent one on the 1D time-frame has been the following, which we can claim that it 'played out' quite effectively:
I am bringing to you something different today, this time a longer one on the 1W time-frame. Based on the Triangles shown on the main chart, Bitcoin is replicating an A-B-C-D pattern resembling the Cycles of 2014-2016 and 2018-2019. Could it be that this time we have a mini Cycle within the Cycle? Based on this fractal comparison it is quite possible. It is important to note here that I am not taking into account the March 2020 COVID market crash as it is a technical anomaly that was caused by a once in 100 years event (pandemic).
So the key element here in my opinion is the (d) leg. On both previous Mega Cycles, is was contained above or on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). On the current 'mini' Triangle, the 1W MA50 is holding for the moment. If it continues to do so, can that mean that a break of the Triangle to the upside will kick-start a new parabolic rally, quite possibly the final one of this Bull Cycle? I believe yes.
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BITCOIN moment of truth for the COVID trend-line?BTC is close to the trend-line that started on the (hard body) candle of the March 2020 COVID crash bottom. Last time it got tested (July 20 2021) it held and initiated the strong rally of August. If we are in an accumulation phase much like May - July 2020 or September 2020, then as long as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) is holding, Bitcoin should rise soon.
If not though? Will that break on the Higher Lows (COVID) trend-line mean a new Low, lower than July's and possibly the confirmation of a Bear Cycle?
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CELOUSDT Technical Analysis
⏳ Spot
💎 CELOUSDT has been moving along the Bullish channel and has been making HHs and HLs. It has broken above an important resistance level and it is expected after the retest it will go higher.
🏁 Short Term
💵 Invest Only 5% of your Portfolio
🎳 Entry at market or 6.640
☕️ TP1 8.500
🍺 TP2 9.300
🍻 TP3 10.000
🍾 TP4 11.000
🍷 TP5 13.000
🍸 TP6 14.300
🍹 TP7 15.400
🎁 TP8 16.700
🚫 SL 5.500
Good Luck 🎲
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BITCOIN Moment of truth after China ban. Which Channel prevails?Bitcoin is on the back foot again, suffering significant losses following the new round of China bans on crypto trading. Although the market has faced (successfully) this threat before (even recently) and is not something unfamiliar, traders need to consider mostly the psychological effect this may have to weak hands.
Technically though there are two clear patterns on the 1D chart and are giving their own battle to see which one will prevail in the next few days:
1) The Channel Up (blue pattern) that practically started after the July 20 low (which was also a Triple Bottom) and even though its Higher Highs trend-line has been hit twice, its Higher Lows trend-line is about to be touched for the third time. The parameters supporting this Channel is a) The Golden Cross that took place on September 14 b) the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) that appears to be holding today's sharp drop and c) the 1D CCI hitting its long-term Support Zone.
2) At the same time, since the September 7 Higher High of the Channel Up, the market structure has diverged within it into a Channel Down (red pattern). The parameter supporting this Channel is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), under which BTC has closed for 4 straight days and where the price got rejected today.
My conclusion is this. A 1D candle closing above the 1D MA200, breaks the Channel Down upwards and should restore the bullish sentiment and keep the Channel Up valid. In that case the target is the next Resistance (59600), practically the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement (57000). A closing though below the Channel Up, could escalate the selling further towards the bottom of the Channel Down. We have to consider though also the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) which provided support twice in June and July. Even a marginal/ momentary break below it can be bought by long-term investors, we need to see the price considerably lower (e.g. 33000 - 30000) to support a long-term trend switch. So personally if the Channel Up breaks to the downside I wouldn't be surprised to see an aggressive candle wick below the 1W MA50, which will be bought back quickly.
But what are your thoughts on this? Which Channel will prevail after this new round of China weakness and what will be your target? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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BITCOIN almost hit the 1W MA50! Will it rebound?Who said history doesn't repeat itself and fractals are not something to count on in trading? My most recent Bitcoin Fractal Analysis on the similarities of the August rebound to that of March-April has played out almost perfectly:
If the (j) leg has been completed, we have a new very important development emerging on the 1W time-frame this time. The price almost hit yesterday the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line as illustrated on the chart), for the first time since the 1W candle that started on July 19 (essentially the beginning of the August rally). This development brings forward another interesting fractal, as the April - September 2021 pattern can be compared with the June 2019 - February 2020 pattern.
** The June 2019 - February 2020 fractal **
As you see the 2019/20 fractal initially dropped around -55% and as it marginally broke the 1W MA50, it rebounded slightly above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, only to drop back to the 1W MA50 (and the 0.5 Fib). The events that followed are well known to the economic world as the COVID pandemic caused a global melt-down asset-wide and collapsed BTCUSD even below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) momentarily (on 1W terms) and below the 0.786 Fib. Notice how the time distance between the start of the fractal and the 2nd 1W MA50 test (that failed) was 55 weeks i.e. 385 days. Surprisingly enough the distance from that candle until the current April All Time High (ATH) is also almost 55 weeks (59 to be exact), making the pattern symmetrical.
** The April - September 2021 fractal **
The 2021 fractal also initially dropped around -55% and also marginally broke the 1W MA50 in an attempt to find support (but not as low as the 0.5 Fib this time), which it did, that led to the August rally that as with the 2019/20 fractal, also broke above the 0.236 Fib (but not marginally). Yesterday's (near) 1W MA50 touch, is the February 2020 proportional 2nd 1W MA50 test. Notice how, in remarkable fashion, the distance between the last low that started the late 2020/early 2021 parabolic rally (August 31 2020 1W candle) until the current week, is also 55 weeks (385 days). It is striking how symmetrical those two fractals have been until now. If this symmetry continues, we could assume that the next ATH will be in around 59 weeks from now.
** Are we ahead of a major crash? **
Does that mean though that a March 2020 flash crash to the 1D MA200 will be also repeated? It goes without saying that this was non-technical/ systemic anomaly, an outside catalyst, which on pandemic terms only happens once in 100 years and is unlikely to happen again. If the 2021 fractal is to repeat this, a catalyst of equal magnitude is required (there is a growing sentiment that Evergrande is such a catalyst but the very fact that more and more market participants believe that, makes it less likely to be true).
** The Fibonacci Channel **
As you've noticed I've applied the Fibonacci Channel, which has been quite useful in predicting market tops during this new crypto Bull Cycle since the Dec 2018 bottom. Bitcoin in particular has made the Higher Highs of these two fractals on the Fib 1.0 and the Fib 1.5 extension. on a 59 week horizon then, a modest (based on that model) estimate for the next Higher High would be the 1.5 Fib extension again, which could be around $150000. If however this targets the 2.0 Fib on an arithmetic fashion, then it can be considerably higher.
** Conclusion **
This analysis brings to question various dynamics. The most important of all is do you think that the 1W MA50 will again hold and provide the necessary support for a new rally or will the market collapse on an Evergrande default? Are the two fractals that symmetrical so as to expect the next ATH in 59 weeks from now? And if yes, could that be on the 1.5 Channel Fib extension or the 2.0?
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Bitcoin to DIP further to complete the correctionAs mentioned in my previous analysis that Bitcoin's momentum is weakening and expected Bitcoin dropped. You can read my previous analysis under related ideas.
Going by chart, Bitcoin has completed wave A & B of ABC wave and now heading towards point C.
At around 35349 - 39052 falls two fib channels.
First channel is from point A to B, where Bitcoin can potentially bounce from fib level of 1.618.
Second channel is from the start of the impulsive wave, which will collectively form Wave 1 of the Super cycle. So Bitcoin has already passed 0.5 fib level. Now it is heading towards 0.618.
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BITCOIN/USD/BONDS forming a unique pattern ahead of Fed meetingAhead of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, where the central bank will decide upon its interest rate and give hints on future policy, I thought it might be a good time to look how Bitcoin (orange trend-line) has traded against two major economic assets of the macro sphere, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), illustrated in green and the U.S. 10 year bond yield (US10Y), illustrated in blue.
As you see Bitcoin's and US10Y's trends have been quite positively correlated ever since the March 2020 COVID flash crash, and it appears to be mostly due to the Fed's and U.S. government's policy on extreme monetary printing in the form of economic rescue packages for the economy. At the same time an initially declining DXY, seems to have found support in 2021, dealing hurdles to Bitcoin's rise.
However the combined pattern of the DXY and US10Y since mid July seems very similar to that mid-August to late October 2020. In 2020 that mix literally paved the wave to BTC's parabolic phase. Can we see a similar aggressive rise this time around? I suppose the Fed will have more to tell the markets this week on that matter but technically the sequence seems quite similar.
What do you think? Is this all a hyper bullish mix for Bitcoin or the recent pull-back can escalate into a bigger correction as in May? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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BITCOIN Triangle with a strong Support?Perhaps the most important technical development of this week was that BTC managed to hold the 42800 Support. That is a critical level because, as shown on the chart, it is a Support (that held on August 09, September 07 and September 13), which previously was a Resistance (May 20, June 15, August 01) during the May/ June/ July accumulation phase.
Together with the Higher Highs trend-line under that Bitcoin has been trading under since August 09, it appears to have formed a Triangle pattern. Naturally as long as Support holds, the market should be seeking a new Higher High.
What could be the target on this leg? Even though the natural Resistance is at 59600, we should always keep in mind the Fibonacci retracement levels since the May bottom and the next major Fib level to be filled is the 0.786 at 57070. A Bullish Cross on the 1D MACD will surely help towards that direction.
If we get a 1D candle closing below the Support though, the pattern gets invalidated and the market could seek the lower Fib level of 0.236 (37070).
Which trend do you think will prevail? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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BTC Nearing a BreakoutBTC has been going through a rocky ride, especially in the last few weeks. There has been a consistent resistance at certain levels (top two trendlines) and the region between the two is the Area Of Value (AOV). For those who may not know what AOV is, it is the region where you can expect to make perfect entries.
For now, BTC has run its course and has arrived to a point where the price action has no other way to go except to breakout. Whether it goes up or down depends on the next few days. Expect a breakout by Sunday or Monday. Be sure to cash in. I will update you as I get more signals or patterns that may indicate where the price will go. My guess? It would take a dip!
Polkadot Price AnalysisThe four-hour chart shows that a rising trend line has capped the price since the middle of August. The trend has been a constant source of rejection for the price and the catalyst for last week’s technical reversal. Furthermore, the trend which is currently seen at $39.00, proved the high for the last two days.
Therefore, as long as Polkadot stays below the trend line, a correction is possible. In that event, some obvious downside targets emerge. A rising trend line at $34.00 from last week's low is the first support level. Below that, the 21st of August high around $29.50 offers the next level of support. However, if the Polkadot price manages to clear $39.00 an extension to the $42.00-$45.00 is probable. Furthermore, above $45.00 and the all-time high of $49.77 could be under threat.
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BITCOIN just formed the 1D Golden Cross! What's next?Five days ago I posted the following fractal comparison:
I mentioned that even though a repeat of the May fractal was realistic, the emergence of the Golden Cross (i.e. the MA50 (blue trend-line) crossing above the MA200 (orange trend-line)) on the 1D time-frame, could invalidate the pattern and reverse it upwards.
Well today this 1D Golden Cross has been formed and Bitcoin is trying to capitalize on yesterday's rise. So what can prevent this rise from taking place? Since the price is trading within a Megaphone Pattern currently, that inevitably draws more comparisons with May as BTC was also trading within a Megaphone before the flash crash.
It goes without saying that the reasons for the crash were fundamental (Musk and Chinese bans on mining) but there is a certain technical level to look out for. That's the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level where the price got rejected on May 10th (actually a little below that level). Currently that's at 50460 so we could assume that breaking above it and extending the Megaphone will be the last confirmation (following the 1D Golden Cross) for the invalidation of bearish patterns. If not, then we can expect the price to drop further and seek support on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). On a side note, see how similar the LMACD patterns are between the Megaphone fractals.
What's your take on this? Will the 1D Golden Cross invalidate the bearish fractals or won't make a change? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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BTCUSD SentimentsThere has been such little selling that it almost makes it negligible. Long-term holders are already not selling as 10-year old supply just reached an ATH of 2.4 million BTC. And along with them, even the mid-term holders have stepped back when it comes to selling.
In fact, the buying trend is so strong that addresses with balance have reached a 4-month high, matching with May ATH levels. Thus, the wise thing to do right now is to buy Bitcoin ASAP.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is already in the bearish-neutral zone. This indicates that a price flip could be coming soon and buying now will result in strong profits later.
TOMOBTC Technical Analysis
⏳ Spot
💎 TOMOBTC has broken above the descending channel. So we expect that the price goes down once for a pullback before it goes up above the channel and reaches the TPs.
🏁 Short & Medium Term
💵 Invest Only 5% of your Portfolio
🎳 Entry at market or 0.00004350
☕️ TP1 0.00005200
🍺 TP2 0.00005450
🍻 TP3 0.00005750
🍾 TP4 0.00006060
🍷 TP5 0.00006550
🍸 TP6 ___________
🍹 TP7 ___________
🎁 TP8 ___________
🚫 SL 0.00003850
Good Luck 🎲
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BTCUSDT Technical Analysis
⏳ Spot
💎 BTCUSDT Has got rejected from the bottom of the channel. We also see a Bullish Engulfing candle at the resistance line. The price might go lower to the pullback zone before it goes up to the upper line of the channel.
🏁 Short & Medium Term
💵 Invest Only 5% of your Portfolio
🎳 Entry at market or 43860.00
☕️ TP1 46310.00
🍺 TP2 47500.00
🍻 TP3 49260.00
🍾 TP4 51000.00
🍷 TP5 _________
🍸 TP6 _________
🍹 TP7 _________
🎁 TP8 _________
🚫 SL 42400.00
Good Luck 🎲
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BITCOIN Is it realistic to expect a repeat of this fractal?If you followed me for long here on TradingView and on reddit in the past, then you know I am a big supporter of fractal analysis. As a result I had to bring you today's fractal comparison and will explain how it can be invalidated even though so far it has been astonishingly identical.
** Fractal similarities **
First of all, this time I haven't used the log chart, to avoid confusion among people who are not familiar with. The time-frame is on the 1D. I've classified the legs numerically from (a) to (j) (nine in total). As you see Bitcoin has currently completed (h) and is going for a dead-cat bounce to (i). So far it has been replicating the January - May fractal extremely closely. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting (only recently it broke but the price closed back above it), a Higher Lows trend-line of a 45° angle was supporting both fractals until the (g) leg and the Fibonacci retracement levels have been providing Support on the way up. The only minor difference is that the (h) leg has hit the 0.618 Fib while in April it only hit the 0.5 retracement level. Also the RSI is currently at the same level it was when the April fractal was in the middle of the (g)-(h) sequence.
** The difference maker **
So, until now it looks like an excessively identical fractal. However, the big factor that wasn't present in early May and may make all the difference in the world at invalidating the fractal, is the Golden Cross. As you see, this very bullish MA pattern (when the MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the MA200 (orange trend-line) is very close to be formed on this 1D chart. No only BTC wasn't even close to a 1D Golden Cross in late April/ early May but in fact we haven't seen this formation since May 19 2020, so over 1 year ago.
If leg (i) materialized next, then most likely that will form the 1D Golden Cross and that alone can be the difference maker as short-term fractals have to abide to the long-term indicators and the 1D Golden Cross is such. If not, expect the (j) leg to find Support around $38000.
What's your view on that fractal? Do you think it will complete the (j) leg or a potential Golden Cross will invalidate it and break above $53000? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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DOGE Price AnalysisThe daily chart shows the Dogecoin price continues to grind broadly sideways in a narrowing pennant formation.
Forming the lower edge of the formations a trend line at $0.2090. It was this uptrend that provided the catalyst for yesterday’s bounce. Just above the trend line, the 200 EMA at $0.2275 lends its weight to the support. If the price fails to hold above the 200 EMA and the trend line, it will signal an end to the 2021 bull market and likely lead to significant long liquidation.
However, for now, the trend is intact. And as long as that stays the case, DOGE has a chance to recover. The first obstacle is the 100 EMA at $0.2632, followed by the 50-day at $0.2729. Successful clearance of the two moving averages should lead to another attempt at trend resistance, now seen at $0.3183. And above $0.3183, the outlook turns incredibly bullish. However, the early signs are that the downside will prevail. Although, DOGE has a habit of surprising.
BTC Fibonacci IdeaHi guys,
I just want to briefly go over my Fibonacci 0.618 idea. When you pull the Fibonacci extension from the previous bull runs ATH to the low we can see that as the market went for another push it was rejected from the 0.618 quite harshly which was followed by a multi year bear cycle.
Now the real question is will this come to fruition? or will we see this completely invalidated and we continue the super cycle.
History doesn't always repeat but It's an interesting thought.
Thanks for reading
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