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Btctechnicalanalysis

BTC Must Be CAREFUL!!Taking a look at our BTC 4HR chart we have been talking about this for quite some time now but we are once again struggling with the 0.786 FIB level where a fall could most definitely be triggered. The pivot points show very clearly what i am taking about, after our 4HR recently the main pivot level has moved to right below where we currently sit, if tomorrow we see another bearish close and underneath the pivot we could trigger a decent selloff, my likely target for this would be around 35K as the first one, a slip below there would have to be for a future TA. Now the bollinger bands are beginning to squeeze down on price action, the longer we see this go on for the much more explosive the move will be, the bands don't give an idea of which direction but my next point ties together with the pivot points. If we did see a bearish close for example tomorrow, if it was below the pivot point or a little above that would leave price action directly ontop of the bottom band, now this aswell can trigger a fast move to the downside. Now the RSI has bounced off support at 41.87 since falling back below the midline, we are on our way back down for a likely retest and will have to see how this support holds up going into tomorrow. We will definitely have some work to do before regaining the very important midline, getting back and above has to be the goal especially on the daily RSI, this represents confirmed downtrend (below) and confirmed uptrend (above) a lot also hangs in the hands of the economy and geopolitical conflict so it will be very unpredictable. Not financial advice just my opinion!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by JacobR905
BTC Possible Downside on the Horizon!!?Taking a look at our BTC daily chart we have fallen hard out of the bullish triangle pattern and now are pushing some crucial levels, the most important level as of right now is the 0.786 FIB level at 37.7K aprx, if we do see a daily close below this level it could trigger a bit of a slip to the downside. One critical level that we have fallen through is the pivot point right around 39.8K this is an important level because depending on the direction we fall through or break above it can trigger a run in that direction, so in this case we have seen a breakthrough to the downside! Now we will look at the moving FIB bands, as you guys can see our bottom grey FIB level lines up perfectly with the 0.786 FIB, if we fall below here and close below i would expect some downside to come, now we could fall into the next red fib band level or the next pink support at 35K exactly. Now the squeeze momentum indicator is just coming out of a big bullish squeeze where we saw some nice upside, now we are currently on our first red bar we have seen in a little while, if we continue to see these red bars day after day and with them increasing in size day after day we will be looking at a confirmed bearish squeeze. Now we have 2 parts to this indicator, the black crosses represent the squeeze portion and the white crosses represent the squeeze release, which we are actually currently seeing, the release is the mist explosive part to this indicator and can bring some big swings in price action in this case the downside direction. Not financial advice just my opinion!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by JacobR905
BTC 45K Break Coming Soon!!?Looking at our BTCUSD on the daily chart we notice that from last time we spoke on this we were looking for a potential breakthrough of the 0.6 FIB level and/or the 45K level, we got rejected after 4 strong wicks up and above here but this could have been expected too, we saw a big run up from our most recent bottom and a little cooloff couldve been expected for PA. Now with that being said it looks like we have seen that full cooloff and we are looking to run back up to 45K. I personally think if we do see a strong push coming from today going forward we have a very good chance of smashing through this level once we get there. Now looking at our bollinger bands we came off the top band after having a significant run up and we are coming back down towards the midline which is support, definitely looking to hold the midline if we do come down to it. Now for other support levels we have tons, we have 40.7K aprx and also double support along the midline of the BB's and if we do by chance break those we have strong support at the 0.7 FIB level. For the Mean Reversion Channel we are still 12% off our mean line (yellow) looking previously we bounced strongly off the orange oversold zone. Now keep in mind one rule with this indicator is that at some point price action comes back up or down to the mean level, now the whole goal here is to make our way above this level so we can start making some higher highs! Now the RSI is looking fantastic we are up and above the very important midline, staying above here returns us back into a confirmed uptrend so holding this zone is very important! We also have strong support coming from the yellow SMA (Simple Moving Average) as an added layer of support other than the midline! Not financial advice just my opinion!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by JacobR905
Will BTC Break 45K!!?BTC is looking great here we are currently sitting underneath the 0.6 FIB level at 44447$ and we are looking for a potential break to the upside. The good news is that we broke out of the bullish triangle and aswell as the descending channel. A break above 45K is going to be massive achievement in the short term for us and will add some big bullish momentum, aswell as take out a massive resistance level! Now something that is very bullish is the bollinger bands, we had yet another daily close ontop of the top band which can trigger some big momentum and shoot us up, Continuing to close ontop of the top band will increase our chances of seeing that big bull momentum so this is definitely something to watch! Now lets look at the squeeze momentum indicator, we are seeing another increase in our daily green bars and we are currently in the squeeze release portion of this indicator the most explosive part (shown by the black crosses turning white) the thing we are looking for here is the continued increase in green bars each day, if we begin to see these decrease we could be looking at a little downside to come! Not massive downside i should point out, a possible few days, but we will have to see, we must watch aswell for the green bars entering into the red zone below the midline, if we see a bearish squeeze this could lead to more of a significant downside. Now the ADX is looking very positive here, we are coming down off a long downside but we are starting to see a very gradual but healthy reversal it seems like, what we want to see confirm is this downside to keep rounding off into the start of an upside! Will continue to update as we move forward! Not financial advice just my opinion!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by JacobR905
BTC Bullish Triangle Breakout!Doing a little update from yesterdays TA and ill keep this one a little shorter! We have successfully broken out of the bullish triangle we talked about, keep in mind there is always the chance that we reenter this pattern before the real breakout happens, but either way we are looking strong, we have been steady rising for over a week now and we have taken out some important levels on the way like the 0.7 FIB and the top of this triangle, now we are looking at holding above here and our next goal is going to be reclaiming our midline on the bollinger bands, we need to get into the upper half as the midline will then be support and we have the opportunity to make a run for that top band! After the midline on the BB's we are looking at an absolute key level that is.. the pivot point sitting around 39.8K, reclaiming this level will definitely add a ton of bullish momentum, not only is just the current pivot point but is just below 40K and as we all know that is a must reclaim zone at some point sooner than later. The Wavetrend is looking good aswell we are rising still and not showing virtually any signs of slowing up just yet, we had a strong rebound coming out of the buy zone and we are about halfway to that midline, of course a run above this midline would be very ideal but in this wave i don't know if thats going to be the case, none the less if we do see a little drawdown it wouldn't be unhealthy to do so, we will likely catch some support on the way down before hopefully making our way back up and going for that midline and beyond! Not financial advice just my opinion!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by JacobR905
2
BTC Breakout!!When we last talked about BTC we were looking at a couple key areas we needed to breakthrough in order for us to continue moving to the upside, those levels were the 0.7 FIB, the top of the descending channel and the top of the bullish triangle, we are looking solid here we have taken out the 0.7 FIB and the top of the falling channel, all thats left in our current spot is the top of the bullish triangle! Keep in mind guys we need all of these to confirm after our daily close tonight at 7PM EST. A breakthrough of all of these levels or even the current 2 is going to be significant and the chances of us seeing some big bullish momentum significantly rises. The level we would be looking at after these 3 is the midline on the bollinger bands, which currently acts as resistance as of right now, flipping this level not only gives us a cushion of support but opens the door for a run at that top band. Historically closing ontop of the top band leads to explosive price action to the upside, not always but a majority of the time we see this happen, same thing applies to the downside. Looking at our MACD we look good here, we are beginning to see nice separation between the MA's which is always a good thing, this makes it more difficult for the bears to trigger a bear cross. Not only that but on our histogram we notice that our green bars are rising day by day showing an increase in bullish momentum, we want to see this continue moving forward and keep in mind if we start to flatten out or decrease the bullish MACD cycle is likely coming to an end in the short term. Now the RSI looks good aswell, we are still stuck in the bottom half below the midline which means a confirmed downtrend, but the good news is we have flipped the SMA to support and we are on our way up, the main goal here is simply getting above the midline and holding above, this puts us back into a confirmed uptrend and relieves a lot of bearish pressure! Not financial advice just my opinion!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by JacobR905
BTC Finding Support!BTCUSD on the daily timeframe has found some strong support right around 35K (USD) and it seems we are showing some strength moving forward, however we can't be too confident as of yet due too how the market is moving on a daily basis. Either way i am looking for a reversal at some point soon, in previous cycles we saw many corrections ranging from 30-50% even sometimes there has been larger downside flushes, in a lot of cases following the correction prices saw massive growth and an impulse to the upside. Looking at our resistances that are coming up very soon are the 0.7 FIB level at 37867$, we have resistance from 39K-40K and finally we have resistance coming from the midline on the bollinger bands. Now lets look at that, a good sign right off the bat is that we are steadily seeing closes off of the bottom band, as you guys can see closing our daily on that bottom band triggers a big run to the downside (in most cases), so its very positive that we are showing strength by coming out of that and off the bottom band. The longer term goal for us on the bollinger bands has to be breaking through that orange midline, being above here opens the door for us to make a run for that top band, where with same as the downside, if we close ontop of the top band we could see a fast sharp move up! Now the MACD, we are slowly but surely coming out of a bearish cycle, our red bars are decreasing each day and we are heading for the midline where we can then flip to bullish. We want to see the blue MA break above the orange and have some vertical shape to it, moving up steadily and keeping separation from the orange, the reason being is because having good space in between makes it more difficult to trigger a bearish cross, also this allows price action to have a cool off day or two without trigger that bear cross. The final thing we want to see on the MACD is a strong push above the midline on the histogram, we need to see increasing green bars each day showing an increase in bullish momentum. Now lets look at the wavetrend, we are bottomed out it seems, we are reversing out of the buy zone at the very bottom and we are looking for a continued smooth transition to the upside, if you look at the daily wavetrend you will see that these transitions are smooth and rarely have jagged moves, so we can expect a decent bullish wave coming up soon, we haven't seen a wave above the midline in quite some time so hopefully we can see something close to this soon. Overall i am looking at many different buying opportunity's around the board, of course dollar cost averaging in! Not financial advice just my opinion!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by JacobR905
BTC Reversal Anyday Now!!?BTC is still pushing down with big bearish pressure, we are currently sitting at 33.5K and i personally believe a reversal is in sight anyday now for Bitcoin! I am looking at our current area all the way down to the 30K mark where a reversal could be likely, 30K is a strong and established level that is also held up by the underlying 1 FIB at 28.6K. We have current downtrend support which was resistance coming from our ATH so we got a stronger level here aswell, we don't want to see a break below here and especially not below 30k, personally i think the 28.6k 1 FIB level will be the final level before reversal if we did see a push that far. Checking out the RSI we are very oversold and we have been for a little bit now, this usually gives hope of a reversal coming soon. We will definitely have levels of resistance to break along the way back to the upside but the most important thing is regaining that midline, if we do we can confirm a new uptrend and if we don't well you guys know, confirmed downtrend until we do. Now looking at the mean reversion channel, first thing that we notice is the yellow and red bands, this represents very oversold, just like we see with the RSI, now if you go back in time and check out the dips we had into this oversold band you will notice that we rebounded very strongly out of this area, now this could be a matter of time of course, sometimes we spend multiple days in this zone and other times we just spend a couple days in here but overall at some point we have to reverse. Ultimately we should be looking at a comeback to the mean, which is the yellow line in the middle around 52.6K, at some point price tends to revert back to its mean over a gradual timeframe. Like i said before i believe we are in the final stages of this massive flush, we either have a short period left of downside or we are going to reverse very soon, both ways this provides very nice entries and buying opportunities that i am taking advantage of! Not financial advice just my opinion!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JacobR905
BTC DOUBLE BOTTOM!!Taking a look at Bitcoin on a daily timeframe i noticed something very bullish that ive somehow missed. a clear to the point double bottom has formed recently with price action showing some strength coming off of it, this overall if actually plays out is a big positive for the overall market in general! We are currently sitting inbetween the double bottom and the 0.6 FIB level, with heavy supports and resistances clearly above and below us! Keep in mind a push down below the 39616$ level invalidates the whole idea. Potentially some great buying and entry spots here for dollar cost averaging into different strong projects, Mid 39K seems like a very fair and reasonable bottom i personally would say. Looking at the bollinger bands we are currently trading in the bottom half but our first goal here to put us in a nice spot is getting back and above the midline which is currently acting as resistance, being in the top zone allows us the chance at climbing up to that top band, where as you all know by know can trigger quite the run to the upside, not only that but getting above the midline opens the door for us to reclaim the 0.6 FIB level which is a crucial spot at 44K. The Squeeze momentum indicator looks pretty good, we are coming out of a big short squeeze where soon enough we will be coming back to the midline (fingers crossed) This enables us to push into a bullish squeeze above the midline, due to us not getting a true bullish squeeze in quite some time throughout October to be exact, i think it is highly realistic that we could be seeing a massive bull squeeze soon enough, we need to see a strong push past the midline and into green territory, we need our green bars to increase day by day getting stronger and showing the rise in bullish momentum. Now the Wavetrend gives me good hope that we are going to be starting a decent leg up here soon, we recently bottom out in the buy zone and have since recovered, we currently are seeing what looks like to be a reversal happening, the wave came down slightly but is currently beginning to tick to the upside. Keep in mind that this moves slow and has relatively smooth transitions between waves, this means very minimal jagged movements and sharp turns, so what im saying in a nutshell is when we start to see a reversal play out we are not 100% but almost guaranteed to see price action respond to wherever the wave is headed, i should also point out here just like the SQZMOM we haven't seen a very strong bullish wave in quite some time, we had a decent wave but we only pushed upto the midline, what im looking for and expecting sooner than later is a strong bull wave pushing past the midline and topping out somewhere inbetween that and the sell zone! Not financial advice just my opinion!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JacobR905
As a death cross approachesAs the 200/50/20 SMA approach a cross the most likely scenario is to see a larger decline over the course of the next month. The cross should happen as BTC approaches/crosses the $45,500 mark. This will show oversold on the 4 hour and begin the downward trend. It can be expected there will be significant resistance at $39,900, while being broken and heading to the next mark at $37,400. BTC will further breakdown to $29,400. At this level BTC will be significantly oversold and growth can resume. This resetting will provide overall health to the trends as it puts the power back in the hands of bullish investors. The benefit of the breakdown to the $29,400 level will be providing ample support for new ATH. The breakdown should take about 1 month to complete from the time of the death cross, if the model is correct.
by HoldenTC
2
BTC Update!!Bitcoins really been struggling as of late and we are in some dangerous territory for price action, we are hanging out right above the 41K support level and the chances of us falling underneath here are rising everyday, realistically on this 4HR chart we don't want to see a close of course below 41K but also we dont want to see a close below our previous closes, i have marked out a box where we ideally would prefer to close in or above and we are a bit off this level but still have aprx 1 hour 20minutes until our next close. Closing below our previous closes gives some momentum to the bears and could ultimately bring us down even more, if we can't hold onto our 41K zone we are looking at 40K as our next stop. We did get our bullish cross on the MACD but its not looking so great, our MA's are pressed together and our blue MA is actually trailing into our orange now giving the bears an easy shot for a bear cross. Our histograms not looking ideal either, we are seeing a decreased green bar for this current 4HRs and thats not a great sign, its showing us that the bullish momentum is not really here and is fading out already, ideally we want to see the blue MA bounce off the orange one giving us that separation we need. The RSI however could be looking up soon enough, we are about to enter the oversold zone which is a good sign and this could give us that boost up that we need, we want to see a break up and above the yellow SMA as our first target but the main goal is getting back up and above that midline, being stuck below keeps us in a confirmed downtrend which of course isn't great. Getting back up and above this midline gives us the chance to reclaim a confirmed uptrend which is exactly what we want but keep in mind we have a ton of work before we make that happen. Not financial advice just my opinion!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by JacobR905
BTC Update!Checking out our Bitcoin daily chart i mentioned we were trading inside of a bullish pennant and yesterday we had a false breakout and a close outside of this pennant, since then we have recovered quite nicely and are moving our way back into this bullish pattern! we do have a ton of work to do though, we are facing resistance at the midline of the bollinger bands, 49K, 50K, 51K and 52K, personally i think a great first step is making our way back and above the 51K mark, this gives us a great base of support and the ideal spot for us to start making some upside rallies, think breaking 50K is very bullish aswell but personally would like to see a break of 51 and 52K before we really jump the gun! A must break for us short term is the midline on the bollinger bands, we gotta get up and above here to gain that bull momentum, doing so effectively opens the door for a climb up the top band and an explosive upside move that is much needed right now. The RSI is coming up steadily and we aren't very far off of the midline, however we are facing resistance coming from the SMA (yellow), this is definitely a must break aswell before we can make that midline push. The reason our midline is very important here is due to the fact that being below it keeps us in a confirmed downtrend or sideways price action, getting up and above while holding this midline puts us back into a confirmed uptrend and relieves some of that downside pressure. now the Stoch RSI which goes hand and hand with the RSI and is also a faster mover, we notice we are on quite the fall to the downside but what interests me are the very possible reversal spots where we could see that upside bounce in turn bringing the RSI and price action along for the ride, we have a couple obvious spots where we could expect to see a bounce, uptrend support leading to the bottom of our zone and aswell as regular support slightly above that! Think the uptrend support is more likely due to it being in the oversold zone and its a bit aways away from the stoch rather than our horizontal support being just below the Stoch RSI! NFA Just my opinion!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by JacobR905
BTC Weekly Update! Bullish Close!Checking out our weekly Bitcoin chart we are still trailing to the downside but we actually had a bullish close on sunday, we managed to climb up and above the 49K mark where we had our weekly close, we have since fallen down below this level but thats not very crucial, we have another whole week to make progress moving back to the upside We just missed out on closing above the 51K level, both last weeks candle and this weeks have wicked up and above the 51K which is a good sign and i wouldn't be surprised to see us make a push for closing above here next sunday! Another good sign that i noticed is we are trading inside of a bullish pennant which historically leads to breakouts to the upside. We are pretty close to the apex point and could see a breakout soon but i would say the longest period before we get that true breakout would be a few weeks, thats the maximum time period before we would be forced to breakout, now we could see some crazy momentum this week which brings us to a breakout point this week but we must confirm with a weekly close above the pennant. We have wicked multiple times above the pennant and even had a false breakout awhile ago so we are effectively weakening the resistance every time we do so, if we were to breakout this week we would be looking at an incredibly bullish close due to the top of the pennant lining up directly above the 51K resistance! Now the EMA ribbons, this indicator even on the daily is a very slow mover but powerful indicator, it shows the bullish or bearish momentum we have over a longer stretch of time. On the Weekly this indicator is very powerful and is still pointing to heavy bull momentum shown by the green ribbons ontop, when things get bearish we see these ribbons squeeze really tight before then flipping to red ontop, and i personally would say we are a far ways away from that happening, what we want to see is the ribbons start to point upwards and begin to spread out even further carrying price action with tons of bull momentum! Now the Wavetrend, keep in mind this is slow but powerful due to us being on the weekly timeframe, we are approaching the midline on this downwards wave but things are starting to look really good, we seem to be flattening out along the midline which is getting me thinking we are getting ready for a reversal and a push into a next bullish wave, the red crosses are getting closer and closer to our actual wave which is what we wanna see in this scenario, and eventually we gotta see that wave cross overtop of the red crosses and that is when we can confidently say we are in the midst of a reversal! Overall looking bullish on the BTC weekly and could be seeing a strong breakout any day/week now with a maximum of 3 weeks before we see a true breakout! Not financial advice just my opinion!!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by JacobR905
BTC Ready To Move Up!Bitcoin has been moving pretty nicely the past few days, we are pushing up and above the midline on the bollinger bands and its looking like we are gonna get a for sure close above here which is a bullish sign and we are approaching the 51K level, if we can get a push up and above here and get a daily close at some point we are going to be really looking good! Another great thing if we closed up and above the 51K is that we would end up directly ontop of that top band on the bollinger bands, this i personally think will spark a massive run to the upside and bring us some much needed momentum. on the MACD we just recently had a bullish cross and we are looking great, seeing growing separation which is perfect, it lessens the chance of us having a near term bearish cross and also gives us some breathing room, what i mean by that is we can afford to have a down day or two without triggering a bearish cross. the wavetrend has seemed to bottom out in the buy zone and we are now starting the push back upwards, due to us being way down in the buy zone for quite awhile i think its pretty likely we are going to see very bullish wave going forward, likely an extended bullish wave before resetting with a small dip, on everything we got a ton of room to move to the upside and i think we are getting set for our next leg up in this bullrun! Not financial advice just my opinion!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by JacobR905
Bitcoin Update!Looking at BTC we have been stuck in this downtrend for a few weeks now and a couple bottoms could be in sight, the Fed tapering news could be playing into this for sure and aswell as the evergrande defult, seems like everytime we start making some progress some form of news pops up lol. personally i think we are seeing big time accumulation phase going on in the background, remember the market gets very greedy quickly and usually results in a correction/fear. Its very hard to point out a direction just because how volatile the market currently is, we have a couple different scenarios to go over. First of all know one knows exactly, but in my eyes this would be a perfect bear trap, reason being is because we just saw a 9 day phase where we we're bouncing inbetween 51.2K - 46.9K also shown by the significant level (blue turned orange rectangle ) Bear traps are meant to fakeout the bears with a "significant" breakout just to rebound to the upside stopping many traders out. The second scenario would be a continued fall to the 0.3FIB as our first level of major support where a bounce is possible, next we have 42.7K level which isn't as strong and then our next significant support in the 40K range. Lets look at the RSI, we are in a little uptrend but more of a bounce and travelling up our support line there are clear areas of resistance above us and its going to take a good push to get back over that key level that is, the midline, we want to see a strong push up and above here and hold to get back in a confirmed uptrend. Lastly the Stoch RSI, in a pair with the regular RSI the Stoch is indicating a possible bearish cross here which could pull things down along with it, wouldn't be super bad we still have a ways to go before the 0.3 FIB level where it does give us that chance for a bounce, not financial advice just my opinion!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by JacobR905
Bitcoin Bullish Divergence!!taking a look at our BTC/USD daily chart here ive realized that we have formed a bullish divergence! This pattern signals a bullish reversal from our current trend and can be identified from seeing lower highs on price action shown by the yellow trend line and then higher lows on the oscillator and i prefer to use the Stochastic RSI to identify these patterns. Now what this means is that at some point coming up soon we should see an explosive breakout from Bitcoin towards the upside (reversal from our current downtrend) in turn the market overall should get a significant move from this and we can expect everything to start running hot if this plays out! We do have some big hurdles to clear if this is true, we have the yellow downtrend resistance, resistance at a heavy level of 58.8K and then aswell as the bollinger bands midline which is currently resistance and finally very heavy resistance at the aprx 60K level. Now breaking through these is definitely possible its just a matter of how long and when, with some major momentum we could easily smash through a couple of these before possibly getting rejected, now even getting rejected isn't a bad thing it is normal and some of these levels will take more than one attempt to breakthrough. The MACD looks ready to boom in my opinion, we have seen multiple flat red cycles recently with not a ton of movement but we are now approaching the point of a bullish cross. We want to see on the histogram is a strong push into green territory with our bars making increases day after day showing that rise in bullish momentum! With the MA's we want to see separation with the blue on top pushing away from the orange making it more difficult to get a bearish cross. Not financial advice just my opinion!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by JacobR905