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$BTC supply crash: fairy tale, the untold story."Bitcoin price is set to skyrocket in the near future, claims an analyst on X. The analyst pointed out that the supply of BTC on exchanges has crashed." There is this common misconception that because the number of Bitcoins held on exchanges is getting lower every passing day, this will create a supply crash and push Bitcoin to the moon! Actually, if you scratch the surface, the opposite is likely to happen. Historically, after the halving, the division by two of the number of Bitcoins mined has done exactly that. After a period of time, the demand exceeds the supply, creating a massive bull run. But this cycle in 2024, everything is different. Most people only see the superficial aspect: yes, there are fewer Bitcoins available for trading. But what they forget to mention is that in this cycle, a lot of the supply is held by governments and agencies, outside of the market. Let's summarize the situation. As I am writing, there are 2.8M Bitcoins on the exchanges. However, outside the market: - 210,000 CRYPTOCAP:BTC are held by the US government. - 200,000 CRYPTOCAP:BTC are held by Mt. Gox litigators. - 136,295 CRYPTOCAP:BTC are held by an unknown wallet. - 285,105 CRYPTOCAP:BTC are held by GBTC, and many anonymous addresses who can sell at any time. That means at least 700,000 BTC are held by institutions and government agencies and are about to be sold. The big difference with this 2024 cycle is that: - The ones who own these BTC do not care about the price. They are not traders but rather employees with obligations to sell when required. - About 40% of the available supply is not in the market and therefore will have to be sold. Today, CRYPTOCAP:BTC dropped 2%, with about 2,000 CRYPTOCAP:BTC sold on Binance. Imagine if one of these entities sold 10,000 CRYPTOCAP:BTC at once? My point is that the normal CRYPTOCAP:BTC cycle is totally invalidated by this supply of $BTC. Their sale will affect the price of CRYPTOCAP:BTC negatively, at least until the demand catches up. The sale of these BTC might create a panic sell from the ETF issuers, which would wreck the whole crypto space for a while. Conclusion: the supply crunch will not happen. Instead, these institutions will increase the supply by selling their holdings on the market, negatively affecting the price of Bitcoin. It is even possible that the bull market could be canceled if too many of these CRYPTOCAP:BTC are sold, nullifying the halving effect and creating a never-before-seen early bear market.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by CryptoNikkoid
3
BTCUSD - Short Term RSI Divergences and Key Price MovmentHello, Despite the recent bearish trend, the bullish RSI divergence suggests a potential rebound. This divergence often signals a weakening of the bearish monentum and a possible upward price movement. My Bias Bearish in the short term due to the series of lower highs and lower lows. However the bullish RSI divergence suggest a potencial rebound or at least a temporary halt to the downtrend. My Entry/Exit Strategy: Entry Point: Considering the bullish divergence, entering a long position around the current price level of $60,900 could be a strategic move Stop Loss: To manage risk, set a stop loss slightly below the recent low at around $56,000. Take Profit: Potential profit targets could be set around the $64,000 resistance level an d if bullish momentum continues towards the $72,000 peak Future Prospects Watch for a break below the $56,000 support level to confirm continued bearish momentum break above $64,000 signal the end of downtrend and a resumption of bullish activity. For Traders: Given the bullish RSI divergence, consider entering a long position while monitoring key support and resistance levels. Ensure proper risk management with stop losses in place. Regards
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by kashifone1
BTC Swing Short Liquidity Zones: Sellside Liquidity: Two key levels are identified: - Near-term sellside liquidity around the support zone (approximately $53,423.59). - Mid-level sellside liquidity marked above the current price. Gap Analysis: - CME Gap: Indicated within the blue shaded area, suggesting a potential drop to fill the gap left by CME futures. Current Setup: - The chart shows a potential bearish scenario where the price might drop to fill the CME gap and tap into the identified sellside liquidity areas.
Short
by SerenityEquity
3
BTC is going to do something interesting...CRYPTOCAP:BTC update As I mentioned, the $63.8k level is very important, and we are currently at this point. We should either bounce from here or stay around this level for a few days before rallying to $72k. The high of July 1st ($63.8k) is crucial to hold. If we trade below it for several days, we may see a deeper pullback, which I am not expecting. A prolonged dip below $63.8k could be the first sign that we are heading towards a new macro low (below $53k), potentially leading to a bear market for the rest of the year. In that case, the next significant opportunity might not come until 2025. For now, I am holding everything tightly. This is a consolidation phase, not a bear market, although altcoins might take a hit due to BTC dominance being very bullish. Only strong coins are likely to move with BTC.
by GoldenTrades_