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$BTC supply crash: fairy tale, the untold story."Bitcoin price is set to skyrocket in the near future, claims an analyst on X. The analyst pointed out that the supply of BTC on exchanges has crashed." There is this common misconception that because the number of Bitcoins held on exchanges is getting lower every passing day, this will create a supply crash and push Bitcoin to the moon! Actually, if you scratch the surface, the opposite is likely to happen. Historically, after the halving, the division by two of the number of Bitcoins mined has done exactly that. After a period of time, the demand exceeds the supply, creating a massive bull run. But this cycle in 2024, everything is different. Most people only see the superficial aspect: yes, there are fewer Bitcoins available for trading. But what they forget to mention is that in this cycle, a lot of the supply is held by governments and agencies, outside of the market. Let's summarize the situation. As I am writing, there are 2.8M Bitcoins on the exchanges. However, outside the market: - 210,000 CRYPTOCAP:BTC are held by the US government. - 200,000 CRYPTOCAP:BTC are held by Mt. Gox litigators. - 136,295 CRYPTOCAP:BTC are held by an unknown wallet. - 285,105 CRYPTOCAP:BTC are held by GBTC, and many anonymous addresses who can sell at any time. That means at least 700,000 BTC are held by institutions and government agencies and are about to be sold. The big difference with this 2024 cycle is that: - The ones who own these BTC do not care about the price. They are not traders but rather employees with obligations to sell when required. - About 40% of the available supply is not in the market and therefore will have to be sold. Today, CRYPTOCAP:BTC dropped 2%, with about 2,000 CRYPTOCAP:BTC sold on Binance. Imagine if one of these entities sold 10,000 CRYPTOCAP:BTC at once? My point is that the normal CRYPTOCAP:BTC cycle is totally invalidated by this supply of $BTC. Their sale will affect the price of CRYPTOCAP:BTC negatively, at least until the demand catches up. The sale of these BTC might create a panic sell from the ETF issuers, which would wreck the whole crypto space for a while. Conclusion: the supply crunch will not happen. Instead, these institutions will increase the supply by selling their holdings on the market, negatively affecting the price of Bitcoin. It is even possible that the bull market could be canceled if too many of these CRYPTOCAP:BTC are sold, nullifying the halving effect and creating a never-before-seen early bear market.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by CryptoNikkoid
3
Mercury in Retrograde VS Bitcoin Btc price for 10 years🪐 The Mercury in Retrograde cycle has begun today and will last until 28/08/2024 What astrologers "recommend" to do during this period, and what not, as well as to believe in it or not, is an individual matter) But the coincidence of the night market drain with the beginning of this period is very conspiratorial!) Another interesting "coincidence": 🔴 4 cycles of Mercury Retrograde - correction continues 🟢 9 cycles of Mercury Retrograde - the growth trend continues The 5th cycle has started today. Well, here's a chart with OKX:BTCUSDT price and all the Mercury in Retrograde cycles 🪐 that have been and will be. Look for coincidences and write your thoughts in the comments
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by P_S_trade
10
Is Bitcoin ($BTC) heading toward a -50% correction Armageddon?Is Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) heading toward a -50% correction Armageddon? That is what the weekly chart seems to suggest. I hate to be the pessimistic guy, but you don't need to be a trading and charting expert to see the similarities between 2021 and 2024. What could trigger this massive correction is the incredible pump that the ETF has created. Imagine, for the first time in its history, Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high BEFORE the halving! That proves how much excitement and overheating the market experienced. Unfortunately, the stronger the pump is, the harder the correction will be. We can compare the 2021 chart on a weekly basis, and there are too many similarities for them to be coincidences. Because of the huge ETF pump, the MACD has gone ballistic, and now Bitcoin is way overbought. The main concern is that it is on the weekly chart, so resetting this indicator will take about 2-3 months, which gives a lot of time for the price to move down and up until we finally reach a reversal, likely after an estimated 50% dump. In this scenario, the bull run would have a double peak, like the one in 2021, with another bullish phase once the correction is finished, reaching the final goal of this bull run approximately at the end of 2024. The RSI and volume are also confirming this scenario. The EMAs are positioned at the same distance from the action price. This scenario is scary. We could see a -80% correction in altcoins. I hope to read your comments invalidating this idea, because if this happen, I am definitively going back to work at McDonald!
Short
by CryptoNikkoid
8
#BTC/USDT#BTC The price is moving within a bullish channel pattern on a 30-minute frame, and the price is now at the lower border of the channel Which supports the bullish assumption because the price is based on an upward trend and is moving within it We have a higher stability moving average of 100 We have an upward trend on the RSI indicator that supports the rise and gives greater momentum, and the price is based on it to rise after it was broken upward. Entry price is 67,000 $ With a target at the upper border of the ascending channel 68600 $
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
4
BTC is going to do something interesting...CRYPTOCAP:BTC update As I mentioned, the $63.8k level is very important, and we are currently at this point. We should either bounce from here or stay around this level for a few days before rallying to $72k. The high of July 1st ($63.8k) is crucial to hold. If we trade below it for several days, we may see a deeper pullback, which I am not expecting. A prolonged dip below $63.8k could be the first sign that we are heading towards a new macro low (below $53k), potentially leading to a bear market for the rest of the year. In that case, the next significant opportunity might not come until 2025. For now, I am holding everything tightly. This is a consolidation phase, not a bear market, although altcoins might take a hit due to BTC dominance being very bullish. Only strong coins are likely to move with BTC.
by GoldenTrades_
#BTCUSD/H4. What opportunities are there for BTCUSD and Bitcoin?BTCUSD long-term analysis: After establishing a new peak at 70000; BTCUSD has dropped sharply to the previous support area of 63500, where a correction towards 64800-65000 is occurring before continuing the downward trend. There is a high possibility that BTCUSD will form a bottom around 61000-61500 and move back up. Recommended orders: Plan 1: SELL BTCUSD zone 64800-65000 SL 65300 TP 63300-62300-61000. Plan 2: BUY BTCUSD zone 60900-61100 SL 60600 TP 62000-65000-69000.
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by wetdyerap
BTC =>PO3 possibilityOverview of the Chart Timeframe: 1-hour (1h) candles Exchange: BINANCE Pair: BTC/USDT Current Price: Approximately 65,960 USDT Volume: 444.1 Key Chart Elements Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance Levels: Around 67,128 USDT Around 67,534 USDT Around 68,542 USDT Around 70,000 USDT (psychological level) Support Levels: 65,698 USDT 64,748 USDT 64,513 USDT 63,485 USDT Indicators: Relative Strength Index (RSI): Current RSI value around 50.24, indicating neutral momentum. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Indicates bearish crossover, suggesting downward momentum. Volume Profile: Volume seems to have increased recently, indicating higher trading activity. Candlestick Patterns: Recent candles show a bearish trend, with a notable drop in the price to the current level. Observations and Potential Scenarios Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks below the current support at 65,698 USDT, the next potential support is at 64,748 USDT. The Ichimoku cloud and the stochastic oscillator indicate further downside potential. Bullish Scenario: If the price can hold above the support and move back above the 66,363 USDT resistance (purple moving average), it might aim for the next resistance at 67,128 USDT. RSI near neutral suggests there is room for an upward move if momentum shifts. Neutral/Balanced Scenario: Price might consolidate between 65,698 USDT and 66,363 USDT in the short term before deciding the next major move. Conclusion The chart suggests Bitcoin is currently in a critical zone, with a balance of bearish and bullish indicators. Close attention should be paid to the support at 65,698 USDT and resistance at 66,363 USDT. A break below or above these levels could indicate the next significant price movement. It's important to use this analysis in conjunction with other information and market conditions to make informed trading decisions.
Short
by alemicihan