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After the collapse of SVB Silicon Valley Bank... The sequence of events leading up to the collapse of SVB Silicon Valley Bank is as follows: SVB Silicon Valley Bank was one of the top 20 banks in the United States, with over 40 years of operation and total assets of $211.8 billion as of the end of 2022. As its name suggests, the bank primarily served technology startups and employees of large companies in Silicon Valley, and was the bank with the most deposits in the area. On Thursday, March 9th, SVB Silicon Valley Bank announced a liquidity crisis. The stock price of its parent company, SVB Financial Group, plummeted by 60%, causing a sell-off in bank stocks and a simultaneous decline in the three major U.S. stock indices. As news of the crisis spread, more and more institutional and high-net-worth clients rushed to withdraw their funds, causing a bank run that fueled panic and accelerated the bank's bankruptcy process. In short, the bank's collapse was due to a combination of factors: taking in deposits at low interest rates, investing heavily in mortgage-backed securities (MBS), facing short-term liquidity constraints, selling MBS at a loss to stop the bleeding, and triggering a panic. The SVB Silicon Valley Bank incident is directly related to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and bank liquidity management. In response to the global pandemic in 2020, the Fed implemented unlimited quantitative easing (QE) and lowered interest rates to near 0%. Over the next two years, U.S. tech companies initiated a wave of share buybacks, and businesses took advantage of the low interest rates to raise large amounts of capital, which SVB absorbed in the form of deposits. The bank used a significant portion of these deposits to engage in relative value trades, primarily in various types of U.S. bonds. More than 65% of SVB's deposits were invested in MBS, which was normally a safe practice as long as the securities were held until maturity. However, the problem arose when SVB over-invested in MBS and the Fed began to shift towards raising interest rates. The Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes drastically changed the macroeconomic environment, pushing rates higher. Startups in Silicon Valley were no longer able to spend as lavishly, and there were more layoffs and closures. As interest rates rose, the interest paid to depositors also increased, putting pressure on the bank's short-term liquidity. SVB had to sell its MBS holdings to raise cash, but by this time, market rates had risen from 0% to nearly 5% for two-year yields, causing the value of assets to plummet. SVB sold $21 billion worth of assets at a loss of $1.8 billion. While SVB could have absorbed the loss of $1.8 billion, the bank still held more than $1 trillion in MBS, and a run on these securities could result in a loss of $15 billion, making SVB insolvent. Investors panicked in anticipation of this scenario. Event impact 1.SVB announces bankruptcy without warning. After panic spread, Silicon Valley Bank experienced a run on withdrawals of $420, causing an immediate liquidity crisis. The stock price of SVB Financial Group plummeted by 60% in a single day, crushing the management team's plan to sell stocks to save the company. The management team lost confidence and declared bankruptcy. Its stock price fell from $700 to $100 in just one year. 2.Chain reaction in stock and cryptocurrency markets. Investors fear that other banks may also be suffering from the negative impact of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes and high rates, similar to the SVB Silicon Valley Bank incident. The negative sentiment has spread to the US banking industry, which is a core asset of the US stock market. The sell-off of bank stocks is a drag on the US stock market as a whole. At the same time, concerns about financing and liquidity for large tech companies have surfaced. This event also affected the cryptocurrency market. It is difficult to say that there is no relationship between SVB Silicon Valley Bank and the cryptocurrency industry. Circle, the issuer of the stablecoin USDC, has announced that $3.3 billion in cash is deposited in Silicon Valley Bank, which accounts for approximately 8% of the USDC's $40 billion scale. For cryptocurrency companies that have not yet made an announcement, when will they collapse? Market reaction Currently, the SVB Silicon Valley Bank incident has mainly affected the US stock and cryptocurrency markets, with negative market sentiment. The general decline in US bank stocks dragged down the three major US stock indices, with particular attention paid to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow Jones has been in a four-month consolidation phase in the 32,500-34,500 range, with a possible "double top" formation. This event has become the most critical factor in the Dow Jones' downward breakthrough. "The longer the accumulation, the faster the release." Going forward, attention should be paid to the Dow Jones' oscillating downward trend, with a target pointing towards the key level of 30,000. Bitcoin prices fell below support at 22,000, but have since returned to above 20,000. In the short term, it is still necessary to closely monitor this support level. If the support is confirmed to be effective, the target will be 22,000. If the 20,000 support line is breached, it will return to a weak consolidation below 20,000, marking the end of the token's rebound. There is a possibility of further breaking through the new low of 18,000. As the largest bankruptcy case in the US financial industry since the 2008 financial crisis, this event is not yet sufficient to cause systemic risk in the US financial industry, but local risk developments need to be monitored. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDTPERP TVC:DJI
Short
by Ice_and_Fire1
1
Bitcoin: Short first, then long. Despite the fact that the Bitcoin (BTC) price trend should have been boosted last week from the perspective of the US dollar and risk appetite, unfortunately, the cryptocurrency market experienced negative news. According to reports, cryptocurrency bank Silvergate announced that it will postpone the submission of its annual 10-K report for the 2022 fiscal year, stating that "the company is currently analyzing certain regulatory inquiries and investigations related to the company." Shortly after, many cryptocurrency companies and trading platforms, including Coinbase, Circle, and Tether, urgently announced the termination of their business dealings with Silvergate. The news caused panic in the cryptocurrency market and put pressure on Bitcoin prices. This week's risk events are also relatively frequent, and I think the likelihood of short-term Bitcoin prices rising above 25000 is small. From the 4-hour chart, we can see that the starting point of the last rebound has been breached, so the support level is expected to move down to around 21460. Therefore, the short-term trading range is around 22040-21460. In terms of operation strategy, investors can trade within this range of 22040-21460. Liking, commenting, and subscribing are your greatest encouragement to me. Follow me to make trading easier! You are also welcome to read other ideas below. BINANCE:BTCUSDT COINBASE:BTCUSD
Short
by Ice_and_Fire1
2
Bitcoin trend falls and meets support, there is a chance to star Talented people do not necessarily have good opportunities; being underappreciated requires less lamentation and more reflection. There is no need to be impetuous in life; the more others look down on you; you have to calm down and examine your own objective conditions before you may find a way that suits your talents. If a person wants to achieve success in his own business, he will be unable to achieve anything if he has the shortcomings of frivolity and impatience; he needs a serious and down-to-earth style to do anything This wave of Bitcoin's decline is fully in line with expectations. The current price has reached the lower neckline support range. In the short term, pay attention to the 21400 support situation. After the support consolidation, you can enter the market in a short time. Bitcoin operation recommends buying at 21400, stop loss at 20900, target 22800-23500. Bitcoin bearishness is based on the following: 1. Although Bitcoin has fallen from a high level to near the previous platform, the general trend is still dominated by short positions. 2. According to my personal analysis, the five-wave rise of wave A has all ended, and the current fall of wave B a is close to the key point. If it stabilizes here, there may be a rebound of wave B b. 3. The upper pressure is 22800~23500, and the lower support is 21400~20900. Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write in the comments. I will be happy 👩‍💻
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by Crazylambboy
Bitcoin is likely to usher in a short-term rebound Talented people do not necessarily have good opportunities; being underappreciated requires less lamentation and more reflection. There is no need to be impetuous in life; the more others look down on you; you have to calm down and examine your own objective conditions before you may find a way that suits your talents. If a person wants to achieve success in his own business, he will be unable to achieve anything if he has the shortcomings of frivolity and impatience; he needs a serious and down-to-earth style to do anything Bitcoin pierced the bottom of the previous session yesterday and hit a new low. So far, the first phase of the decline has been completed, but it is still 400 points away from the key support of 21500, which is a flaw. At present, the probability of a rebound here is gradually increasing. Since the trend is still short, it is mainly to sell on rallies. Bitcoin operation recommends selling at 23600, risk control at 24200, target 21500~21400. Or drop to 21400 to buy, stop loss at 20900, target 23600. Bitcoin bearishness is based on the following: 1. Although Bitcoin has fallen from a high level to near the previous platform, the general trend is still dominated by short positions. 2. According to my personal analysis, the five-wave rise of wave A has all ended, and the current fall of wave B a is close to the key point. If it stabilizes here, there may be a rebound of wave B b. 3. The upper pressure is 23500~24000, and the lower support is 21500~21400. Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write in the comments. I will be happy 👩‍💻
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Crazylambboy
1
Important Event Today - Bitcoin Ready To Move On Both sidesBitcoin/4H In a bear flag pattern with low volume With the pattern and volume bitcoin is doing tells us that a BIG move is comin which potentially we could touch the origin of the dump which is around 23.6 consolidate and build more longs , then K-Boom goes down around 20500 ( top of the CME gap) A less potential move is because of more shorts we could legdown a little bit first ~ 22k or 21.7 then it goes all the way back up to 23.6 which in this case the upside should be very intense due to the liquidity to the upside Reminder: As a Trader We should always have levels on both side so we dont miss any moves
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PShort
by pcmonk
1
BTC Update ✔Hello Traders. Hope you are doing well. Last time BTC formed a QM pattern which is a reversal pattern that I published in my analyses. Now it has formed a triangle as well as you can see on the chart. On the daily you can see a huge divergence on RSI too which suggests that BTC is going into the correction. The trigger that shows us that BTC is certainly going to go down is if price breaks the triangle to the downwards. What do you think guys? Comment your thoughts on what is going to happen. ❤
by Existansilon
Bitcoin Under Pressure As Expected, Shorts Take Profits Bitcoin has been short at 23,900 for many consecutive days, and it has already been traded for profit. The market outlook will maintain the original idea, continue to be bearish on Bitcoin, and those who have not entered the market can wait for a rebound in the evening. After the rebound, rely on the pressure of 23,800 to sell empty orders Can be re-entered. The operation suggests selling at 23800, risk control at 24400, and target at 22300-21500. Bitcoin bearishness is based on the following: 1. Although Bitcoin has reversed and adjusted midway, the overall trend is still seen as a gradual decline after the top is built. 2. The upper pressure is 23800~24700, and the lower support is 22300~21500. I hope that friends can ask questions and discuss together BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Long
by Crazylambboy
Bitcoin under pressure, waiting for the bears to enter Bitcoin has reached the lower edge of the pressure area yesterday. If it is under pressure, there will be a wave of retracement in the later period. Today, it still maintains a high-altitude thinking. It is not ruled out that there will be high points in the short term, but it will remain high before the pressure area train of thought. Bitcoin operation recommends selling at 23900, risk control at 24500, target 22300~21500. Bitcoin bearishness is based on the following: 1. Although Bitcoin has reversed and adjusted midway, the overall trend is still seen as a gradual decline after the top is built. 2. The upper pressure is 23900~24700, and the lower support is 22300~21500. Friends are welcome to discuss together, I will give analysis every day for your reference CME:BTC1!
CME:BTC1!Long
by Crazylambboy
Bitcoin Bullas wants to push it higher on Monthly Close!BTC/1H `at the bottom of rising broadening wedge Forming another pennant ` After Pumping into 23.9 yesterday btc gets rejected at a local support and starts to bleed and touches the bottom of the rising broadening wedge The Rejection was heavier than the pump and price endedup consolidating near the bottom of the wedge indicating we might exit it again Also today is **Monthly Close** if btc loses 23K and close below, depending on the momentum of the move we could consider it very bearish Some liquidity Cluster to be taken at 24.6 which can cause bitcoin to legup again if it breaks above 24.7 Please Boost,Follow,Comment if you find it informative Thanks for watching
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PShort
by pcmonk
BTC/USD - BITCOIN - Great Buy OpportunityBitcoin hit strong resistance at $25,000 but with all the good news from Hong Kong, China it will break the resistance: --> On June 1st, 2023, Hong Kong will officially make crypto purchase & sell, trading, fully legal for all of its citizens. Entry: $24,650 - $24,700 Take Profit 1: $27,000 Take Profit 2: $29,000 Stop Loss: $23,000 Enjoy our Free Analysis and Setups. Leave us a like and comment. For more scripts & analysis, follow us. Success trading!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by uNickTrading