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Inverted H+ Shoulder on BTCWe've all seen this pattern being pushed out - However there seems to be a lot of talk saying that it has invalidated. It has not, and is still very much in play - The left shoulder has a "W" within it, and as such I expect the same to be played out with the right shoulder, as marked in white. To get a potential breakout target, I worked out the difference between the neckline and the peak of the head, and then marked that distance out from the top of the neckline, which is where the breakout should happen.
Long
by Nightranger_
2
Old chart revisited and shows some surprises On first glance, the Run from 2017 to the 2021 ATH and the current path from 2021 to the Next ATH, could be seen to be very different in so many ways. And They are, I pointed out the First and most prominent difference recently when I showed how PA was level with previous ATH level at the Time of Halving for the First time Ever. However, as this old chart shows, now that we have a few more Months of data on it, there are still some Very strong Similarities...and this is a Very BULLISH thing Lets have a look ( please note, this is a weekly chart-days count is subject to 7 day variation) 2017 ATH to Next Low ( A) 217 days 2021 Nov ATH to next Low ( C) 217 days Dec 2018 Low point A to Halving 518 days Nov 2022 Low point C to Halving 518 days Given the similarities above, is it safe to assume this continuity may continue ? The Simple answer is NO but let us have a look at some projections using this data because, it Does have confluence with many other charts May 2020 Halving to Next ATH - 336 days April 2024 Halving. If we use the 336 days then we end up with a projected next ATH in March 2025. This is a widely used expected date date May 2020 Halving date to continued push up to New ATH ( green box on left ) = 119 days April 2024 Halving. If we use the same day count, we come to August as the time when we should see a continued push higher. I do have other charts that point more towards July but August could be considered to be within a range of Tolerance... Other things to note here are - 1) PS this time is Much more "controlled". e are rising slowly and carefully. The 2017 to 2021 was a Volatile and Choppy rise as can be seen by the Massive Ups and downs of PA. We are being a Lot more controlled, to try and avoid these sudden and painful Dips; 2) The RSI ( Top indicator below the Volume bars ) is currently a lot higher than on previous Halvings. ( orange vertical lines ) This is due to the continued and steady Rise of PA over the last 19 months - Previously, RSI rose post Halving, We are currently Dropping.. Fast...and I expect we will be where we need to be by the July / August date mentioned above. 3) The ATR ( bottom indicator that measure Market Volatility ) is way up high now where as, on the 202 Halving, ATR was Down low. However, as we saw in the 2021 year, ATR can range high for extended Periods of Time. All in all, for me, some interesting similarities and possibilities here. Even though efforts are being made to control the market and rise smoothly, we are still working with in the same time periods as previous Runs... These are all Just IDEAS...untill it happens, nothing os certain..But it can lead to other ideas and options.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
3
#BTC/USDT Bullish and BEARISH $57k before $100k??In this post, we will assess both bearish and bullish scenarios with detailed reasoning to help you make informed decisions, whether you're trading or investing. BTC/USDT is currently trading at $67,087.98, just above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and $65,551.00, a critical support level. The price has already broken below a key pattern, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. If BTC breaks below the 50 SMA+ 65.5k support, it could trigger a move towards $60.3k, with a further downside target around $57k, where high liquidity and the 192-day trendline intersect, offering strong support. Conversely, if BTC holds above the 50 SMA, it may avoid the bearish breakdown and instead aim for higher resistance levels at $71,452.01 and $73,777.00. This positions BTC at a decisive point, where the next move will likely determine the short to mid-term direction. Traders should closely watch the interaction with the 50 SMA to gauge potential price movements. FUNDAMENTALS :- The fundamentals do not align with the technicals. Here are some important points to consider: HTF: - ETF Approved ✅ - Halving ✅ - Petro dollar expiry with no renewal ✅ - US presidential candidate endorses crypto ✅ - Daily bullish divergence holds for BTC ✅ LTF: - Liquidity taken below ✅ - CPI fell and rates reduced ✅ - PPI fell and rates reduced ✅ Reason for Further Down HTF: $100k charts everywhere but without any pullback! There is a significant amount of liquidity between $50-59k, which is very attractive to big investors and institutions with BTC targets between $130k-$350k. Even if we dip slightly above $51k, the higher low will remain intact, keeping the HTF trend bullish. The current HTF fib retracement is thin compared to traditional optimal entries. Historically, before a new ATH, there's usually a major shakeout causing fear and cheap liquidity for institutions. This hasn't happened yet, making now an ideal time for a retracement amid high bullish sentiment and greed. A typical scenario involves a massive, unexpected dump causing widespread fear, lasting from 10 days to 3 weeks. This provides institutions and big investors with cheap liquidity, setting the stage for a bull run once their positions are filled. So, even with positive indicators, remain cautious. Avoid FOMO for your own sake. It's better to keep cash (At least 40% in USDT to buy Alts at cheap). This is the kind of decisions we didn't see in previous bull runs! Remember that? I hope this post helps you. If it did, please hit the like button and share your views in the comment section. Thank you #PEACE
Short
by Cryptorphic
3
BTC Rejects $70K: Recovery Fails Following Fed AnnouncementBitcoin witnessed a strong rise above the $68,500 resistance area. It tested the $70,000 level, but after the Fed announced the interest rate hold at 5.5%, a strong bearish reaction was observed. Bitcoin started a new decline from the $70,000 resistance zone, and the price is now trading below $68,550 and the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA). Uptrend Line and Support: There is an uptrend line forming with support at $67,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The price is facing resistance near the $68,250 level. This means there is sufficient buying pressure to prevent the price from dropping further. This level is considered a strong support based on previous price movements. Resistance Levels: The price is struggling to rise above the $68,250 level. This level acts as a barrier to upward price movement. Therefore, the first major resistance can be at $68,550, as this level is a key resistance point where the price is expected to face more difficulty in breaking through. Fibonacci Level: The 50% Fibonacci retracement level is used to identify potential support and resistance levels after a significant price move. In this case, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $69,969 high to the $67,148 low indicates that the $68,550 level represents half of the downward move between the high and the low, making it an important resistance level. Next Important Resistance: The next key resistance could be at $69,200, a level where the price might face strong selling pressure, making it harder for the price to rise. This level is an important resistance point to watch. A clear move above this resistance could push the price towards $70,000, a significant psychological level where investors might expect increased selling pressure. Further gains could drive Bitcoin towards the $71,200 resistance, which could act as a temporary stop or barrier to upward price movement. If this resistance is broken, it indicates that the market has sufficient strength to continue rising. Trading Recommendations: Buying Opportunity: If Bitcoin succeeds in rising above the $68,550 level, buying positions can be opened with targets at $69,200 and $70,000. As mentioned, the $70,000 level is a major psychological barrier and strong resistance in the market. It is crucial to place stop-loss orders below $68,000 to manage risk. Selling Opportunity: If the price fails to stay above the $67,200 support level and drops below it, this indicates weak buying pressure and increased selling pressure. In this case, the price could drop to $67,000, a nearby support level that might see some temporary stability. If the downtrend continues, the next target would be $66,000, a major support level that could offer a buying opportunity or other trading decisions. Investors should always keep an eye on global economic events and any statements from the Federal Reserve, as they significantly influence price movements. Relying on both technical and fundamental analysis is essential for making wise investment decisions in the volatile cryptocurrency market.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by bbitar
btcPlan 1 From this first resistance, we play a little and the blue movement is done Plan 2 We have Time News today and Green Plan Important note We have three important areas where I don't do a lot of shopping We are in a short-term downtrend If the important resistance areas are not broken, the yellow lines are in sight We have news It is a personal opinionPlan 1 From this first resistance, we play a little and the blue movement is done Plan 2 We have Time News today and Green Plan Important note We have three important areas where I don't do a lot of shopping We are in a short-term downtrend If the important resistance areas are not broken, the yellow lines are in sight We have news It is a personal opinion
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by hosseinghaffari67
Investment and Hedging Strategies in the Bitcoin MarketRecently, Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility, sharply declining after the flash crash on June 6. Prices fell from the $72,000 level to below $70,000, leading to substantial selling pressure. However, positive trends can be seen in the market as U.S. ETF issuers are buying a lot of Bitcoin, which boosts confidence in the long-term outlook of the cryptocurrency. Key Points: Strong Support at $66,000: Breaking this level may indicate a shift in the downward direction. Resistance at $74,000: Surpassing this level could drive prices to new highs. ETF Purchase Volume: Adding 25,729 bitcoins in the first week of June enhances confidence in the long-term upward trend. Recommendation: For Short-Term Investors: Due to high volatility and current selling pressure, it is advisable to wait and see if the support at $66,000 holds. If the support level is broken, it may be wise to avoid entering the market until prices stabilize. For Long-Term Investors: Price corrections can be used as opportunities to add more Bitcoin to investment portfolios. It is smart to invest gradually and take advantage of price drops to make purchases. Hedging Strategies: Diversification: Diversification is a hedging strategy aimed at reducing risk by spreading investments across various assets. Instead of relying solely on Bitcoin, investors can diversify their investments into other digital assets like Ethereum, Litecoin, or even traditional assets like stocks and bonds. This diversification can reduce the negative impact of Bitcoin’s volatility on the overall portfolio. Futures Hedging: Futures hedging involves buying or selling Bitcoin futures contracts to protect the portfolio from price fluctuations. If an investor owns Bitcoin and wants to protect against price drops, they can sell Bitcoin futures. On the other hand, if they expect prices to rise but do not own Bitcoin, they can buy futures to benefit from the expected increase. Risks Associated with Hedging Strategies: High Costs: Hedging with futures involves paying fees and spreads, increasing overall costs. Systemic Risks: Futures contracts can be affected by economic and political events, leading to unexpected losses. Technical Knowledge: Hedging with futures requires a deep understanding of the markets and how futures contracts work. Hedging strategies provide protection against market volatility but must be used carefully and with a clear understanding of the potential risks. Diversification and futures hedging can be effective tools for risk reduction, but it is essential to understand the costs and risks associated with these strategies before implementation.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by bbitar
Bitcoin's Stalled Breakout: A Test of Bullish Resolve Bitcoin (BTC) ended last week with a whimper, failing to decisively break out of a bullish technical pattern and overcome key resistance levels. This has left many investors questioning the short-term trajectory of the world's leading cryptocurrency. After a price drop on Friday and a lackluster weekend, what can we expect from Bitcoin in the coming days and weeks? The Failed Breakout and Bullish Doubts The recent price action centered around a prominent technical pattern known as a bull flag. This pattern typically precedes a bullish continuation, with a price consolidation period following an uptrend. However, Bitcoin's attempt to break above the flag's resistance level at the end of the week proved unsuccessful. This failed breakout has cast doubt on the immediate bullish momentum and raised concerns about a potential reversal. Technical Indicators: A Mixed Bag Adding to the uncertainty are technical indicators that paint a conflicting picture. Some, like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), are hovering around neutral territory, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. This could be interpreted as a sign of potential buying pressure waiting to be unleashed. However, other indicators like the "death cross" – formed when the 50-day moving average dips below the 200-day moving average – have emerged, historically hinting at a possible short-term price decline. The ETF Inflow vs. Hedge Fund Shorting Tug-of-War Beyond technicals, a fascinating dynamic is playing out between two opposing forces in the market: inflows into Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and short positions taken by hedge funds. On the bullish side, significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have been observed. This suggests institutional interest in the cryptocurrency remains strong, potentially providing a buying force that could propel the price upwards. However, this optimism is countered by reports of hedge funds taking large short positions on Bitcoin. These bets essentially profit if the price falls. This shorting activity could act as a headwind, potentially hindering any significant price gains. Short-Term Bounce vs. Long-Term Trend While a short-term bounce from current levels seems likely, predicting the long-term direction of Bitcoin remains a challenge. The failed breakout and bearish technical indicators raise concerns about a potential downward correction. However, the underlying fundamentals, including strong institutional interest and Bitcoin's limited supply, suggest long-term bullish potential. The Bottom Line: Patience and a Multifaceted Approach For investors, the current situation necessitates a patient and multifaceted approach. Monitoring both technical indicators and on-chain data to gauge investor sentiment can provide valuable insights. Additionally, staying informed about regulatory developments and broader market trends is crucial, as these external factors can significantly influence Bitcoin's price. Ultimately, while the immediate future of Bitcoin is uncertain, one thing remains clear: the battle between bulls and bears is far from over. The coming weeks will be telling, revealing whether Bitcoin can gather enough strength to overcome the recent setbacks and continue its upward trajectory.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln