BTC 2week trading strategy May 27- June 10No-need to hurry to enter the market until current futures contract expiration date on the 30th of May (vertical orange line). Also summer is usually not the best period for breakouts due to holiday season.
Best-case:
BTC price breaks through 69650 intraday resistance level confirming continuation of a short-term trend which started on the 1st of may (short violet dotted line). This trend will continue going upwards to break ATH or at least it will be transformed into a range between 66450 and 70500 before breaking ATH.
Base-case:
There will be a deeper pull-back to 64500, as a consolidation before ATH break. Overall the decline will be temporary and not too deep to break the medium-term trend which started on the 11th of Sep 2023 (long violet dotted line).
Worst-case:
Deeper pull-back to the current key supoprt zone (green rectangle) which will confirm that short-term and medium-term trends are over and the longer consolidation will be needed to break ATH (similiar to summer 2023).
Trading strategy:
Stop-limit at 69650 for the best-case scenario.
however entering the market with 1/3 of max risk per trade
limiting exposure to the worst-case of price locking in medium-term range (56500-72500)
preserving flexibility to make another entry for base-case in case of a deeper pull-back to 64800, or after ATH break-out at a higher price.
in case of the worst-case confirmed, reconsider whether it's still reasonable to hold the trade
stop-loss below 50000 for a black-swan event to protect deposit from margin call. It is highly unlikely that this stop-loss will be trigerred accidently for the coming two weeks.
Btcusd4h
Bitcoin short squeeze: $85M in BTC shorts liquidated in 24 hoursBitcoin (BTC) experienced a dramatic market shift as its total liquidations surged to $97.06 million, driven by $10.98 million in long positions and a staggering $85.08 million in short positions being wiped out.
The sudden price increase caused over $260 million in market-wide short liquidations on May 20, the largest since February 28th. Ethereum (ETH) shorts lost over $115 million, followed by Bitcoin shorts at just over $97 million, according to data from Coinglass.
This upheaval occurred as Bitcoin’s price surged around 5% in the past 24 hours, reaching $71,078.15. The cryptocurrency’s 24-hour trading volume also skyrocketed by 138%, valued at $54.065 billion, with a market capitalization of $1.40 trillion.
#BTC/USDT lONG
#BTC
took a breather last night, but don't sweat it! This pullback is just a bump in the road, and the trend is still pointing upwards.
The price is chilling below $43,700 for now,
but I'm expecting a rocket launch soon. Buckle up,
next stop $45,300, and if that goes smoothly,
$47,500 is calling our name!
Bitcoins tumultuous path to 130kAs we entered the bull cycle after exiting the red bubble, the clock started. We have measured each bull market gains since the beginning of bitcoin, and the factor is 1.618. Formula is as follows;
To find the next number in the pattern, let's examine the relationships between the given numbers:
297 ÷ 183 = 1.626
51.8 ÷ 30.8 = 1.678
10 ÷ 6 = 1.667
1.4 ÷ 0.8 = 1.75
The pattern appears to involve dividing each number by a decreasing, but relatively close value. The differences between these division results are not consistent. However, there seems to be a general trend of division with values around 1.6 to 1.7.
Let's continue this pattern and divide 1.4 by a value close to 1.6 to 1.7:
1.4 ÷ 1.65 ≈ 0.848
So, the next number in the pattern could be approximately 0.848.
848% is the next gain percentage of next bull cycle.
Thats the easy part; the factor we cannot relate to is TIME. We are left to charting fractals and Trying to find ratios between previous cycles and bull markets. My calculations say Nov '24. Election time.
I titled this tumultuous because though we have the ability to go straight up and God candle, I think that is unlikely as 70k resistance is strong. I think the faster we go up and touch that resistance (40k in 2wks) the quicker and deeper the downturn would be, we see our purple line stretching diagonally to november, its not straight up and down like the previous bull markets. Leaving us to infer we could have a deep ABC wave depending how quick we touch 70k from here (35k)
BTC Bullish FlagOn the 4H chart we can see that the BTC is moving in a bullish flag pattern, so soon we can see the break-out, but be careful because we also can see that the volumes are descending, so this can be a manipulative movement and very fast!
IMPORTANT! Always follow the RM strategy while trading!
Free fall or patienceBitcoin has reached its weekly resistance, on the other hand, it is in a static resistance, and there is also a negative divergence in this currency.
Caution is the best option. If you enter a capital management position, don't forget the important support and resistance ranges.
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BTCUSDT.4HBased on the provided market data for Bitcoin (BTC) against Tether (USDT), the current price of BTC is $42,635.
On a 4-hour timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 41.78, which indicates that the market is neither overbought nor oversold. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at -159.0, suggesting a bearish signal. The Bollinger Bands (BB) are at 43432.0, indicating a potential resistance level. The support and resistance levels are between $41,000 and $44,380 respectively.
On a daily timeframe, the RSI is at 54.25, which is a neutral reading. The MACD is at 771.0, indicating a bullish signal. The BB is at 44700.0, suggesting a higher potential resistance level. The support and resistance levels are between $39,032 and $45,700 respectively.
On a 7-day timeframe, the RSI is at 80.27, indicating an overbought market condition, which may suggest a potential price correction. The MACD is at 4029.0, which is a bullish signal. The BB is at 46311.0, indicating a higher potential resistance level. The support and resistance levels are between $31,769 and $47,150 respectively.
Based on these indicators, the market seems to show mixed signals. The short-term (4h) and mid-term (1d) indicators suggest a bearish sentiment, while the long-term (7d) indicators suggest a bullish sentiment. However, the overbought condition in the 7-day RSI might suggest a potential price correction.
Investors should consider these mixed signals and their risk tolerance before making investment decisions. It might be wise to wait for more bullish confirmations on shorter timeframes or for the overbought condition on the 7-day timeframe to cool off.
Please note that this is just a technical analysis and it doesn't take into account any fundamental factors which could also impact the price. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
A boom for bitcoin but let's not forget the brakeThe possibility of growth is stronger for Bitcoin, but there is a possibility of a correction up to the blue range, i.e. the price of 41,112.
The resistance range is located almost 4% higher at 42,755.
We have to wait for the reaction in the support range, because if this range is broken, there is a possibility of falling to the support price of 39.417.
Friends who are risk takers can now enter a long position and set the loss limit below the blue support zone.
Bitcoin is in an upward trend in the hourly time frameBitcoin is in an upward trend in the hourly time frame, and the possibility of a correction to the bottom of this trend is not far from expected, and this digital currency is likely to see growth again after a correction.
But as we mentioned in the analysis, according to the news, there is a possibility of breaking the bottom of the channel for this digital currency, Bitcoin.
Market Symmetry show BTC dipping before pumping to 34kNOTE: Following is interesting stuff but don't take this seriously as this is just for fun.
I love market symmetry and use it to make models that predict what certain assets may do next, it works as long as model and symmetry remains intact.
Chart is self-explanatory, but still there is a lot going on so let me break it down.
This story began on 12th September as you can see on the left most part of the chart. That is when the current uptrend began and BTC started moving symmetrically on several parameters which are described below.
1. Time spent at the lows before making move that breaks Market structure:
From 12th September lows to the present lows at 26500 the time BTC
consolidated at the lows kept on increasing but in a symmetrical fashion.
As you can see in the chart on the 12th September lows it spent 7 bars , on the
24th September lows it spent 16 bars and on the 11th October Lows it spent 23
bars. So, we can deduce a pattern here. 7, 16 , 23 , the next number in the
series should be 29. Each number in this series is derived by adding a number
from another series 9,7,5,3 ....
2. Time taken from the previous lows to the next highs is constant, that is approx.
30 bars.
3. Percentage move between each low and the next high is also increasing in
symmetrical fashion:
First move was 6% highlighted in yellow vertical bars, second move was 10%, 3rd
Move was 16% , so logically the next number in the series is 24. Each number in this
series is derived by adding a number from another series 4,6,8,10 ....
Notice the curve shown in cyan color which I have fitted as close as possible to the highs and the lows.
So based on this data, we should get out next low on or around 25th Oct and we should spend around 4days consolidating there, then btc should give us an explosive PUMP to 33500 area which is 24% from the anticipated low at 27K on 25th Oct.
We can also make following conclusion based on information presented by above parameters:
Volatility on BTC has been expanding gradually over time, which is giving us bigger pumps, but we also notice that the time between each high and low remains constant while time spent at the lows increases every time, this tells us that each time the time it will take to pump to new highs will reduce hence giving us increasingly explosive pumps.
The target 33500 is also in confluence with the Cyan Curve in the main chart. It is also the measured move of the following large Diamond BTC has been trading in for a long time.
Bitcoin and the possibility of falling more to a conditionToday's news is very important, this news can cause more growth of Bitcoin, so if the news is positive, this analysis will be invalidated.
But according to the technical analysis, there is a possibility of more return and fall for Bitcoin.
This return may happen in the 4-hour time frame, but there is still hope for a return in the daily time frame because the downtrend has broken and the 200-day moving has not been established yet.
In general, if we want to ignore the news, we can have more possibility of fall for Bitcoin
BTC 4HR Analysis - Short Opportunity Right Around the CornerBTC has failed three times in its attempt to ascend to the top of the bull channel with three-pin bar bear candles closing on or near their lows. It's been a slow bleed to the downside ever since last Friday. We are nearing the 200EMA on the 4HR and should expect some support here. A good short entry may be at the end of the next bull bar or two if you're not already in a short.
We should be looking for a breakout of the channel bottom with a bear bar closing on or near its low, followed by a retest of the channel resistance, and a confirmation bar to the downside. Such price action calls for a short back down to the bottom of this trading range we've been in since March of this year, which sets a target price of $25,000.
Trade wisely and let us know what you think in the comment section below!
🟢BTC - Falling Wedge in Rising Channel"As you can see, Bitcoin is in a rising channel on the 4-hour timeframe, and now we can observe a Falling Wedge pattern. As you know, the Falling Wedge pattern is one of the bullish classic patterns that can push the price higher towards the top of the channel. However, don't forget that eventually, the rising pattern must break from the bottom of the channel, and the falling channel must break from the top. So, please pay attention to risk management.
Examining the two positions of Bitcoin. The probability of falliBitcoin broke its resistance, but it has not been stabilized yet, and there is still a possibility of price reversal, because the negative divergence is visible in this digital currency, so entry is risky for long.
Considering that we still don't have stabilization of the drop, entering the short position is also risky.
In both cases, we checked the entry to this currency.
And we know more probability with falling.
We don't talk randomly and also we don't say buts and ifs.
Because an analyst must give his final opinion and admit his mistakes
And we all know that no one is always right.
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Ready for an attack or escape from a resistance?Bitcoin is in a downward channel, but at the ceiling of this channel...
Considering that Bitcoin had a little drop after touching this downward channel, but it maintained itself near the channel and strengthened the possibility of this channel's failure.
But as we know, any action taken early will lead to loss
Bitcoin's Remarkably Tight Range Bound Since July 24
As a trader, you are likely aware that Bitcoin's price fluctuations have historically been a source of great excitement and profit potential. However, the current market conditions have led to a lack of significant movement, which may leave some traders uncertain or even frustrated. While it is essential to acknowledge and adapt to the prevailing market dynamics, exploring potential future scenarios and their implications for your trading strategies is equally important.
Considering the tight range bound, it would be interesting to hear your perspective on Bitcoin's future trajectory. Do you believe this stagnant phase will persist, or are you anticipating a breakout shortly? Sharing your insights and discussing with fellow traders can provide valuable perspectives and help navigate the market more effectively.
I encourage you to take a moment to reflect on your trading approach during this period of limited volatility. Are there alternative investment opportunities you are exploring or strategies you are considering to adapt to the current market conditions? Sharing your thoughts and experiences can contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the situation and potentially uncover new possibilities.
Feel free to respond to comments and contact fellow community traders to exchange ideas and opinions. Together, we can navigate the market's twists and turns while adapting our strategies to optimize our trading outcomes.