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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 65)Yesterday was back to the drawing board after getting stopped out of my BTC:USD long. It didn’t take me long to find another position, however it was not into BTC (take a look at the c&h on ETH combined with potential TK crossover). This morning we find ourselves at another crucial area for the Bitcoin price. We were met with resistance from the 50 day SMA but were able to finally support above $9,000. We are coming off a dragonfly doji and it looks like we are going to re explore the previous shadow. If we can hold above $9,000 for the next 12-24 hours then we should be primed for a $10,000 retest. If we do dip below the low of the prior candle ($9,002) then I expect us to create a new low and head down to $8,400. We have been trading within a triangle for the past week. I am considering BTC in a no trade zone until that triangle breaks one way or the other. Until then I will be focusing on the alts, and sharing that TA on Twitter (same sn). Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 64)Yesterday I was long from $9,300 with a stop loss set at $8,924. We had strong support off the 50 day SMA, we also had confirmed with a higher high and higher low. The hammer dojis at support also gave me confidence that we would bounce. I set my orders, and went for my daily hot springs meditation session. The price dipped and triggered my stop loss before I returned home. That is certainly frustrating, but such is the life of a trader. I went over the position in my blog yesterday and have to say that I am feeling good about it. When reviewing a trade the only thing that matters is the process. There will be wins and there will be losses. If the process is sound then the results will follow. I had a plan, waited for confirmation and then I stuck to my guns. The market has been very choppy over the past few weeks. From reading social media it sounds like a lot of traders have been losing money or are still waiting on the sidelines. I am happy to report that I am up 25% for the month of April, even after this loss. Sometimes zooming out on the price chart as well as the trading results can help! After getting stopped out of a trade it is time to go back to the drawing board. I do still get the feeling that we will bounce from here and create a higher high. However, I am not recommending entering at this point. I was on the wrong side of the market with my last trade and that always leaves me feeling slightly befuddled. Time to regroup and come up with the next game plan! I will continue to sit on the sidelines until it becomes more clear which direction we are heading. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 63)Yesterday I started building a position at $9,300 and got fully entered before the end of the day. I wanted to see us confirm the higher low and push forward to a local high while I was sleeping. Instead we continued to pull back and retested the 50 day SMA. That test did not last long and the bulls quickly pushed the price back above $9,200. We now have multiple hammer dojis after a pull back. We are still trading at support and if you are not in a position then this could be a good time to enter. If the price gets over $9,400 then you missed it, don’t FOMO and buy resistance! Yesterday the stop loss was set at $8,595. After re evaluating that has been moved up to $8,924. As long as we support above $8,950 then I am feeling good about my leveraged long. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 62)Yesterday I was waiting further confirmation before looking for an entry. My ideal scenario was a $9,650 retest and then a higher low around $9,300 - $9,500. The price didn’t quite get to the $9,650 area but it did create a higher high. Now it appears to be forming a higher low. The last two candles have a bullish shadow and I like the hammer that just closed. I have started to build my position and am using $8,838 as my stop loss. It wouldn’t surprise me if we continued to pull back to $9,000 where horizontal and trend support will be waiting along with the 50 day SMA. I have only entered 50% of my position and would add the other half from $9,000 - $9,150. Happy trading and keep in mind that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 61)On April 26th I drew the dotted line down to $9,000 and explained that I need that area to prove itself as support before I would consider entering another long. Yesterday we saw the price dip down to $8,900 before quickly reversing. At that point I saw two options: Range for 3-5 days from $8,900 - $9,300 Create a higher high, and go for a $9,650 retest We are currently breaking through resistance and are on track for option B. That is great news and has put me on red alert for the next entry. Right now my gameplan is to wait and see how this rally plays out.I would like to see us break through $9,300 in a convincing manner and then create another higher low. I expect the current rally to take us back up to $9,650 - $9,750 where resistance will be waiting and then I expect a pullback. If that pullback finds support above prior resistance and creates a higher low then it will be time to build a long. If all goes according to plan then I will be entering from $9,300 to $9,500. With the price currently trading at $9,300 you may be wondering why not enter right now… My trading style is not concerned with getting the best price, all that matters to me is taking on the least amount of risk. More confirmations and patience almost always add up to less risk. Comment if you have something to say. Smash the like if this was helpful and definitely finger that follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 60)I have been waiting on the sidelines over the last 48 hours waiting for further confirmation before re entering. Last night I expected a small pullback from $9,300 - $9,000. I wanted to see the price hold above that level of support before looking to build a long position. Instead it gained support at $9,150 and formed a bull flag, which is currently uncompleted. Resistance came in at $9,375 and that pushed us down for a $9,150 retest. It was bearish that we couldn’t complete the flag, however the push back does not seem to have much steam at all. . The hammer doji that just closed should give the momentum back to the bulls. From here I expect the price to grind upwards for a $9,650 retest. It still feels too choppy to build a position. I will continue to sit on my hands and wait for a cleaner entry. If not currently in a position the I would recommend doing the same. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 59)I just returned from my trip and am feeling refreshed after seeing a concert and playing two rounds of golf! The golf was subpar but the music was awesome! I am also very happy to see Bitcoin bouncing after a strong pullback. Over the last couple days I was watching $9,000 - $9,200 as a potential area of support and expected the price to reverse from there. I mentioned that it could provide a good entry for a long and suggested a stop loss in the area of $8,750 - $8,850. I was long from $8,100 and had my trailing stop set at $8,750. That trade has been stopped out in the green and now it is back to the drawing board. In the meantime I am going to be staying on the sidelines awaiting further development. If not currently in a position I would recommend doing the same. I am very, very happy to see us trading above $9,000 and viewed it as a very bad sign for the bulls when we failed to support it. The quick reversal back to the upside has me leaning tentatively bullish. I need to see $9,000 backtested and turned into support before looking for another long entry. I expect the backtest to occur in the next 12-24 hours. If we can hold then it is time to get into a long! Although I expect a pullback in the next day, my overall position is neutral and I am not recommending a short! Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 58)Yesterday I updated my post to say that everything was still looking good for building a long from $9,000 - $9,200. If you followed that advice then your bags are likely already packed. Today I am really wanting to see us support above $9,000. That price provided significant resistance on the rebound and if we fall below for a significant amount of time it wouldn’t be good. Setting a stop loss from $8,750 - $8,850 makes a lot of sense and also provides a great risk:reward ratio. I am leaving town this morning for a concert and golf trip. I will do my best to make an update while I am out of town but may not be able to get to it. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 57)Yesterday I laid out a bullish and a bearish scenario after the price broke through the trend line. As it turns out that was only a bear trap and the price has quickly reversed to the upside! Way to go bulls! I drew the $9,475 horizontal line on the 22nd and expected that to be the next significant resistance after we broke through $9,000. That is based on the previous resistance/support that the $9,500 area has provided. From here I expect a healthy pullback to $9,000 - $9,200. If not currently in a position then wait for that before building one. Even though I am expecting a pullback I would not recommend shorting. The market has turned bullish and it is time to look for long entries. I am still long from $8,000 - $8,129 and haved moved the stop up to $8,549. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 56)As we consolidated over the past 48 hours I remained confident that we would trend toward $10,000. Today we have seen the price fall below the trend line and now I am less certain about an upcoming pump. The range has tightened to the point that we are going to see a significant move one way or the other very soon. If we breakdown then I expect us to retest the 0.382 FIB for support. The 50 day moving average should be waiting around that area as well. If support holds then that would be a good area to build a long position. On the other hand if we do manage to maintain support above $8,800 then we should be in position to continue the trend up to $10,000. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 55)Yesterday I expected the price to meander back towards the maroon trend line and mentioned that it could provide a good entry for a long. The last candle came within a hair of that trend line before the bulls quickly pushed the price back over $8,900. Support has continued to move up after supporting the large sell volume from the 20th. That is a very good sign and tells me that we are ready for the next pump. I expect to see $9,500 in the next 12 - 24 hours. If not in a position then entering a long in the $8,000’s could be a good option. If we breakout above $9,000 then it’s too late and I would not advise chasing. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 54)Yesterday I was very happy to see us break the the 0.382 FIB resistance as well as the log trend line! In daily update I also mentioned that $8,900 - $9,000 would be the next area of resistance and that's where we pulled back today. From here I expect it to be smooth sailing for the next week. This is when it is very easy to get complacent and/or greedy. Stay focused and stick to the plan. Manage stop losses and always stay on your toes! Talking to myself as much as anyone else. Keep an eye on the trend line we supported from the 17th - 20th. I expect us to retest that over the weekend. That could be a good area to build a position. These are 4 hour candles and there should be plenty of time to enter. I have drawn three dotted lines to show how I think the next 7 days will go. They are based on support & resistance levels as well the daily trend of the previous few days. This is how I was able to draw the trend line on the 17th after seeing the golden cross, well before the it had been established as support! I have a very hard time predicting the intra day moves and I rarely day trade. That is why those lines are dotted, I would only use them as a way to plan for entering a long and/or taking profit, not as individual trades themselves. We also supported big selling volume two candles ago without closing below $8,700. I view that as a good sign that this pull back will be short lived. We might blow right through my trend line and go for a FIB retest, but I wouldn't necessarily plan on it. If not in a position $8,400 - $8,700 should be a good place to build a long. There will be resistance waiting at $9,400 - $9,500 but I don’t think we will have a problem get to $10,000 and that is where my first profit target is set. Stop loss is at $8,119 and will be moved up each time we breakthrough resistance.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 53)Over the past 24 hours I have been watching closely for Bitcoin to break through the 0.382 FIB retracement level. I am very happy to see the slow grind upward continue to break through major resistance. It leaves us well positioned without being over extended, which is very important for a recovery. Support has continued to move up and that is crucial in order to keep the momentum going. As we keep receiving more, and more confirmation that this bear market is over we should continue to see significant amounts of fiat deployed from the sidelines. There is currently a bull flag forming that is pointing to $8,750. The next major area of resistance should be $8,900 - $9,000. I am still sticking with the $9,949 profit target. Stop losses have been moved up to $8,044 which is just a hair under break even from my initial buy recommendation. If you are not in a position then now could be a good time to enter long. $8,400 - $8,500 is the accumulation zone. If the price falls out of that area then it is time to re evaluate. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 51)About 8 hours ago we got the golden cross and that provided the final confirmation for entry. I stayed up late to make sure that I didn’t miss it. There was good volume behind the pump and I expected us to breakthrough $8,200 while I was sleeping. Unfortunately the price has pulled back for another $8,000 retest. The bulls mounted a good defense right before the last candle closed. Now we are looking at a bullish wick that should provide some momentum to the upside. If so then it will form a small cup & handle or inverse h&s. If looking to enter a long then this could be a good opportunity. Stop loss is set just under $7,750 and the profit targets are $9,950 and $12,450. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
2
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 49)Over the past few days we have been on red alert, awaiting final confirmation that the bear market is over. Step 1: Break through bear trend (red line) Step 2: Turn that trend line into support Step 3: Golden Cross on 50/200 day SMA We crossed off the first two steps over the past 3 days, and now the moving averages are threatening to cross in the next 12-24 hours. It is ideal to see the price pullback into the moving averages before getting the golden cross. Therefore this is a healthy pullback and could be teeing up the entry for a leveraged swing trade. I need to see the price support above $7,750, otherwise we will be back in no man’s land. If we bounce from here then that would create another higher low and it would bode very well for the bulls. As I continue to wait for final confirmation I am reminded of a quote from Revolutionary War General William Prescott: “Don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes” Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 48)Over the past few days we have been on red alert, awaiting final confirmation that this bear market is over. Step 1: Break through bear trend (red line) Step 2: Turn that trend line into support Step 3: Golden Cross on 50/200 day SMA In yesterday’s post I pointed out the dragonfly doji that was forming on top of the trend line and was watching for the price to bounce. This morning I was very happy to see that everything is still moving according to plan. If we can maintain support above $8,150 and develop a higher low over the next 24- 48 hours then I would consider Step #2 complete. The 50 day MA has begin to posture up and is rapidly approaching the 200 day MA. Once those cross then all three steps will be checked off and I will be ready to open a leveraged long. In the meantime I am waiting patiently on the sidelines and would advise the same for everyone else. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 47)Yesterday I made a neutral post and advised everyone to wait on the sidelines for further confirmation. Before entering a long I need to see the price find support above the bear trend (red line). As I am typing this a dragonfly doji is forming on top of the trend line. If that closes then it could provide an opportunity to enter a long. The stop loss would be set at $7,719 and that would be a favorable risk:reward ratio. However, I want to make sure that support holds over the weekend before looking to enter myself. Historically the price can have trouble finding support on weekends when the volume is lower. This is such a crucial spot for Bitcoin that it makes sense to wait on the sideline for a few more days. My trading style is not about getting the best possible price, or trying to pick the exact bottom. Instead I focus on finding trades with the lowest amount of risk. Entering a position right now is too risky for my appetite. However, if we can maintain support above the bear trend over the weekend then I will be ready to feast! Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 46)Over the past couple days we have been on red alert for breaking the cursed bear trend (red line). The first step was to support above $7,500 after the massive rally from yesterday. The second step was to bust through the trend line on large volume. The third step is to find support above the trend line. We did see good volume on the breakout, however the price pulled back soon afterwards. That is generally a sign of strong resistance and could be an indication of an upcoming retracement. This is also the fourth test of the bear trend and that is usually when it is the most dangerous for the bulls. So far we have found support above the 200 day SMA, but it remains to be seen how long that will last. If it falls through then we absolutely have to hold above $7,500. If that doesn’t happen then I would have to quickly change my bullish tune. On the other hand if the bulls are able to hold then it will be time to start looking to enter a leveraged long. Be patient. I repeat...be patient! If we do break the bear trend and enter another bull market then there will be dozens of entries teed up on a silver platter. On the other hand if you are anxious about getting entered ASAP then you will get rekt before the gravy train starts rolling. I realize that my analysis is more wishy-washy than normal, and that is because we are at such a critical spot. Longing this close to the upper end of the longer term bear trend is not worth the risk. On the other hand, we have seen enough bullish sentiment in the last couple days to make a short sale out of the question in my book. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 40)Yesterday I remained fully bearish and was watching for a new local at to be created below $6,500. Today I have drawn a massive triangle which illustrates the support level that we have been flirting with over the past couple days. If that breaks down below $6,500 I expect the volume to really pick up from the sellers. I have mentioned that I need to see capitulation before expecting this market to reverse and I am hoping to get it from $6,500 down to $5,000. If not in a position I would wait for support to break as final confirmation for entry. Sell between $6,300 - $6,450 and set the stop loss $6,775. The profit target remains at $5,000 where I expect a lot of support to be waiting.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 37)My short sell was stopped out at break even, now I am sitting on the sidelines and waiting to see what develops. I was very surprised to see $7,250 resistance break and do not have a confident prediction in either direction. So I have outlined my bullish and bearish scenarios arguments. Bullish Above 50 day SMA Back above green dotted bull trend line RSI above 50 (think of this like 50 yard line on football field) Bearish Potential new bear trend forming. Price is testing the red dotted line for a 3rd time. If it resists then it will like resist for a 4th time before reversing Horizontal resistance at $7,750 should be fairly strong I am leaning towards the bullish option, but the overall trend is way too bearish for me to open a long right now. If the price can break through $7,750 then I expect us to retest the longer term bear trend (red solid). If we can break through that then I will be going all in on a long. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 31)Yesterday I watched Bitcoin rally from $7,750 and break the 3 day bear channel. I drew an arrow from $8,000 to $8,400 and shortly afterwards watched the price pull back under $8,000. It continued to breakdown to under $7,750 and created a new local low (blue arrow). That is usually when the sell volume drastically increases. Traders wait to see if support can hold and create a double bottom. As soon as that price falls through the bears will pounce. That didn’t happen this time, and instead the price quickly reversed. That was a very good sign at such a crucial juncture. I made multiple tweets saying not to dump just yet as well as to reaffirm my position that we should rally to $8,400. Today I am going to be watching $8,200 - $8,400 for resistance. First we should see the third point of contact on the 22 day bear channel (red dotted). If we get past that then we will meet horizontal resistance at $8,400. If we can get through all of that then we would be on track to test the 3 ½ month bear trend around April 4th. If we can’t get through that resistance and break down below $7,500 again then I expect us capitulate to $5,000. Happy trading and feel free to follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 30)I have been out of town for the last 5 days and was unable to do the Daily Update post. During that time I was able to reflect on my progress and have decided to continue with the daily posts with one small change. Moving forward I will be using the 4 hour chart instead of the 1 hour. Other than that everything will remain the same. This morning I was happy to see Bitcoin break through the 3 day bear trend. Now I expect it to pump up to $8,426 where horizontal resistance will be waiting. If that resistance holds then it would also mark the third point of another bear trend (red dotted line). The good news for the bulls is the higher low that formed at $7,759. That kept us inside the longer term triangle that has been forming over the past 3+ months. If we break down below that trend then there is no stopping us before $5,000. On the other hand the longer we support above it the more likely it is we will see another massive bull run. I am going to remain on the sidelines until one of the two options becomes much more likely. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez