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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 49)Over the past few days we have been on red alert, awaiting final confirmation that the bear market is over. Step 1: Break through bear trend (red line) Step 2: Turn that trend line into support Step 3: Golden Cross on 50/200 day SMA We crossed off the first two steps over the past 3 days, and now the moving averages are threatening to cross in the next 12-24 hours. It is ideal to see the price pullback into the moving averages before getting the golden cross. Therefore this is a healthy pullback and could be teeing up the entry for a leveraged swing trade. I need to see the price support above $7,750, otherwise we will be back in no man’s land. If we bounce from here then that would create another higher low and it would bode very well for the bulls. As I continue to wait for final confirmation I am reminded of a quote from Revolutionary War General William Prescott: “Don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes” Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 48)Over the past few days we have been on red alert, awaiting final confirmation that this bear market is over. Step 1: Break through bear trend (red line) Step 2: Turn that trend line into support Step 3: Golden Cross on 50/200 day SMA In yesterday’s post I pointed out the dragonfly doji that was forming on top of the trend line and was watching for the price to bounce. This morning I was very happy to see that everything is still moving according to plan. If we can maintain support above $8,150 and develop a higher low over the next 24- 48 hours then I would consider Step #2 complete. The 50 day MA has begin to posture up and is rapidly approaching the 200 day MA. Once those cross then all three steps will be checked off and I will be ready to open a leveraged long. In the meantime I am waiting patiently on the sidelines and would advise the same for everyone else. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 47)Yesterday I made a neutral post and advised everyone to wait on the sidelines for further confirmation. Before entering a long I need to see the price find support above the bear trend (red line). As I am typing this a dragonfly doji is forming on top of the trend line. If that closes then it could provide an opportunity to enter a long. The stop loss would be set at $7,719 and that would be a favorable risk:reward ratio. However, I want to make sure that support holds over the weekend before looking to enter myself. Historically the price can have trouble finding support on weekends when the volume is lower. This is such a crucial spot for Bitcoin that it makes sense to wait on the sideline for a few more days. My trading style is not about getting the best possible price, or trying to pick the exact bottom. Instead I focus on finding trades with the lowest amount of risk. Entering a position right now is too risky for my appetite. However, if we can maintain support above the bear trend over the weekend then I will be ready to feast! Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 46)Over the past couple days we have been on red alert for breaking the cursed bear trend (red line). The first step was to support above $7,500 after the massive rally from yesterday. The second step was to bust through the trend line on large volume. The third step is to find support above the trend line. We did see good volume on the breakout, however the price pulled back soon afterwards. That is generally a sign of strong resistance and could be an indication of an upcoming retracement. This is also the fourth test of the bear trend and that is usually when it is the most dangerous for the bulls. So far we have found support above the 200 day SMA, but it remains to be seen how long that will last. If it falls through then we absolutely have to hold above $7,500. If that doesn’t happen then I would have to quickly change my bullish tune. On the other hand if the bulls are able to hold then it will be time to start looking to enter a leveraged long. Be patient. I repeat...be patient! If we do break the bear trend and enter another bull market then there will be dozens of entries teed up on a silver platter. On the other hand if you are anxious about getting entered ASAP then you will get rekt before the gravy train starts rolling. I realize that my analysis is more wishy-washy than normal, and that is because we are at such a critical spot. Longing this close to the upper end of the longer term bear trend is not worth the risk. On the other hand, we have seen enough bullish sentiment in the last couple days to make a short sale out of the question in my book. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 40)Yesterday I remained fully bearish and was watching for a new local at to be created below $6,500. Today I have drawn a massive triangle which illustrates the support level that we have been flirting with over the past couple days. If that breaks down below $6,500 I expect the volume to really pick up from the sellers. I have mentioned that I need to see capitulation before expecting this market to reverse and I am hoping to get it from $6,500 down to $5,000. If not in a position I would wait for support to break as final confirmation for entry. Sell between $6,300 - $6,450 and set the stop loss $6,775. The profit target remains at $5,000 where I expect a lot of support to be waiting.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 37)My short sell was stopped out at break even, now I am sitting on the sidelines and waiting to see what develops. I was very surprised to see $7,250 resistance break and do not have a confident prediction in either direction. So I have outlined my bullish and bearish scenarios arguments. Bullish Above 50 day SMA Back above green dotted bull trend line RSI above 50 (think of this like 50 yard line on football field) Bearish Potential new bear trend forming. Price is testing the red dotted line for a 3rd time. If it resists then it will like resist for a 4th time before reversing Horizontal resistance at $7,750 should be fairly strong I am leaning towards the bullish option, but the overall trend is way too bearish for me to open a long right now. If the price can break through $7,750 then I expect us to retest the longer term bear trend (red solid). If we can break through that then I will be going all in on a long. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 31)Yesterday I watched Bitcoin rally from $7,750 and break the 3 day bear channel. I drew an arrow from $8,000 to $8,400 and shortly afterwards watched the price pull back under $8,000. It continued to breakdown to under $7,750 and created a new local low (blue arrow). That is usually when the sell volume drastically increases. Traders wait to see if support can hold and create a double bottom. As soon as that price falls through the bears will pounce. That didn’t happen this time, and instead the price quickly reversed. That was a very good sign at such a crucial juncture. I made multiple tweets saying not to dump just yet as well as to reaffirm my position that we should rally to $8,400. Today I am going to be watching $8,200 - $8,400 for resistance. First we should see the third point of contact on the 22 day bear channel (red dotted). If we get past that then we will meet horizontal resistance at $8,400. If we can get through all of that then we would be on track to test the 3 ½ month bear trend around April 4th. If we can’t get through that resistance and break down below $7,500 again then I expect us capitulate to $5,000. Happy trading and feel free to follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 30)I have been out of town for the last 5 days and was unable to do the Daily Update post. During that time I was able to reflect on my progress and have decided to continue with the daily posts with one small change. Moving forward I will be using the 4 hour chart instead of the 1 hour. Other than that everything will remain the same. This morning I was happy to see Bitcoin break through the 3 day bear trend. Now I expect it to pump up to $8,426 where horizontal resistance will be waiting. If that resistance holds then it would also mark the third point of another bear trend (red dotted line). The good news for the bulls is the higher low that formed at $7,759. That kept us inside the longer term triangle that has been forming over the past 3+ months. If we break down below that trend then there is no stopping us before $5,000. On the other hand the longer we support above it the more likely it is we will see another massive bull run. I am going to remain on the sidelines until one of the two options becomes much more likely. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTCUSD Daily analysis - Short bear. Long bull.A daily and 4hr chart analysis. Daily - Bearish day after a bullish rally. Huge historical resistance hit. Possible retrace to 9-10k. Major support at 10k but a retest of 150 EMA, 9500-9700, likely. 4hr - If the Moving averages cross (Red and Green) expect trend reversal confirmation from 90% of analysts, including myself. My only concern at this point is the upper trendline. - The last time the moving averages crossed (Golden Cross) was October 2017 and a 400% price rise. Opening short to 9700 If we see a 9500-9700 bounce, opening long.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by jackdavidpiney
BTC/USD OPPORTUNITY for BUYHi Seildev here, We have seen bitcoins prices pulling back from highs of 16642 usd to currently 13749 usd. This is a very healthy pullback as we have seen a parabolic movement upwards in the early part of Dececember. Few things that we have learnt, that when RSI hits around 86~88, we can expect a pullback. I have spotted 3 circles in green pointing to areas where we can pick up next time when markets are rising parabolically to close out positions above 82 RSI. Another thing, that tomorrow we have the future market opening. There are really two sides of the story with this. One is that we are going to see a bear market as the future contracts for short will be open for BTC. What we have to realise is that this is a futures market which doesn't have an impact on the purchase/value of the coin itself. However we have to note the volumn of trades that may be less as investors may look into futures market which are triple fold more secure than what our current exchanges offers. Understanding that bitcoin can be put into hardware wallet, we still have many amongst us that don't even know coins can be held in an offline wallet. Given the investors in the banking sectors that wanted to get invovled with bitcoins however couldn't reason to do so now have an opportunity through the futures market. Which makes us question, 'if' the old school minders who are more traditional in the fx market or futures market see more value in securities and their funds being safer then why woudln't they invest into the futures market? Money as to come from somewhere and if they aren't investing in purchasing directly through crypto exchanges then this money will be taken out from our market cap thus leading to less volume, thus leading to potential de-value of BTC. Now I'm currently a holder of coins and am a strong believer that crypto will be the future primary currency however I cannot guarantee or tell you 100% that Bitcoins or 'now' is the time where crypto/blockchain technology will shine. I also find a lot of quotes coming through charts posted on tradingview regarding 'sell when everyone is euphoric and greedy, buy when everyone is fearful'. There's always two sides of the story and the most tricky part in analysis is ones interpretation. We could take that quote and apply to where BTC chart is currently at and say 'We are in a bear market and people are fearful' so should we then buy? Or do we classify this as an upward trend still and look into selling? I'm currently looking at holding few coins (BTC one of them) for long term purposes. As I'm not indulging myself in the futures market, any dips/pullbacks for me are opportunities to increase my portfolio with BTC. I have bought around 3500, 7000, 11150 and 15500. Do I regret purchasing around 15500 on the 7th/Dec? No. Why? Because I've learnt an extra indicator that when RSI is above 86, there is more than 80% chance that there will be a pullback. I myself didn't pay attention to it, more so coudln't control the emotions behind the parabolic increase from 11794 to 16614 in a matter of 36 hours and bought BTC but have learnt next time to not do this again. I also think having futures market and more exchanges around the world accepting BTC as part of their exchange is a positive news overall. I also believe some major brands will adopt BTC like Amazon, Ebay, fast food chains in the next 12 ~ 18 months which will bring more value (non speculative but an actual 'value') to BTC. There is a strong confluence around 12068 ~ 12484 where we can see the following: - 70 day EMA - 61.8 % fib from swing high of 16642 and swing low of 9261.88 - 38.2% fib from swing high of 16642 and wing low of 5873.32 I suspect that the trend line since Nov 30th will be broken however recovered quite quickly once we hit another lower lows to 12068 area and will see a bounce to 14330, down to 12484 area and then for xmas period look at next target between 18538 ~ 19579. As always, trade with
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by seildev
BTCUSD failed to break major support, look to sell on strengthSell below 17463. Stop loss at 18212. Take profit at 15965. Reason for the trading strategy (technically): Bitcoin failed to break below our major support and is starting to rebound, making a bullish exit of a recent triangle formation. This leads us to expect price to rise to at least 17463 which is our major selling area (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) before dropping down once again to 15965 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support). Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally): The South Korean government plans on holding an emergency meeting to evaluate the state of the local cryptocurrency market and trading of digital currencies today. There are plans to introduce various regulatory measures on Friday, December 15. This is largely due to many cryptocurrency-related Ponzi schemes in the local market and many scams going around. So expect slower movements on Bitcoin today.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by MEX_Exchange
3
BTCUSD / First and Last Test Run.Strange Huh. Me posting an idea on BTC. Let me be clear with one thing this is first - the only - and last chart I am posting on BTC for Testing Purposes. I just like to research things, and test different stuff! As well I will not trade this myself and I never will trade Cryptos. Gold is the only real money and has been for 5k+ years, and when the real Fear comes to the world this is definitely not a chart that will be UP in most green, that one will be Gold. That is just my subjective opinion. As for anything that I trade, I looked for Frequency base level. For Gold, it is not a secret it is - 28. I have mentioned a lot of things in my - Dynamic hint - idea about it. Turns out it was not hard to find it for BTC. So I gave that Base number to my great friends over at Xino Corp Software we spent 3 weeks on the development and made a quick BTC frequency trading tool with good old High,Low,Close inputs. prnt.sc As of now, I don't even consider making better design or improving this piece of calculator because this is just a test run, so I can see should I really invest more effort in it. For example, For Gold, I have made stable and serious tools during years. One example Intraday trading tool / prnt.sc So to start off with BTC I just want to see how the FRQ trading works, because that is the simplest thing to start/test for everything out there. Those following me on Gold know that I produce target's based on Breakouts, intraday breakouts and big breakouts. Big Breakout mostly ends up with a turnaround and is not a false breakout but a Target that will be reached later. So based on Frequency trading what we have two roots giving a target of 2067$ In theory, a quadratic function such as f(x)=x^2 which only touches the x-axis at one point, that root is said to have a multiplicity of two. This is more obvious when you write the function as f(x)= (x)(x). Either x can be replaced by zero to make this function work, so technically there are still two roots. Any time the graph of a function curves toward the x -axis, touches it, and then moves away without crossing over the axis, this situation occurs. For example, a 4th-degree function where the graph touched the x-axis at x=2, bounced off and then curved back and touched again at x=4, and then veered off again, you would have four roots: X=2 with multiplicity 2, and x=4 with multiplicity 2. Basically "touches" are double roots. So one touch at 3524$ then the second one at 3533$ gives a target of 2067$ because that is considered to be a breakout. So next, In terms of the fundamental theorem, equal (repeating) roots are counted individually, even when you graph them they appear to be a single root. You have to consider the factors: x^3(ax^2 + bx + c) If x^3 = 0, this is the same thing as x * x * x = 0, or x = 0, x = 0, x = 0. Even though they are equal and repeating, they are still 3 factors of x in the original polynomial. That being said there should be a continuation. Target 2067$ is given and I will be keen to see can BTC achieve it.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by TheZabisyu
9