Btcusdanalysis
BTC/USD: What is Going On?Several themes are at play right now, which contributed to a selloff across risk assets last week. Influenced by political shenanigans (tariffs) and the Bybit exchange breach, this sent Bitcoin (BTC) 17.5% lower versus the US dollar (USD) by the close of trading on Friday.
Monthly Chart: Room to Explore Deeper Waters
There is not much to talk about on the monthly chart except to remind ourselves that last year wrapped up rejecting the underside of a 100% projection ratio at US$106,610. Despite January's gain (9.0%), February concluded considerably lower and, as far as I can see, demonstrates scope to continue exploring south until support from US$68,926.
Daily Chart: Dragonfly Doji Ahead of 200-Day SMA
On the daily timeframe, the latest reveals that with the aid of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) delivering resistance at US$97,092, price ruptured the lower edge of a range that has been in play since December 2024 between US$91,591 and US$108,396. This breakout led BTC/USD to within touching distance of the 200-day SMA at US$76,811 on Friday, finishing the week in the shape of a dragonfly doji (a bullish candlestick signal similar to a hammer pattern). While this candle pattern/SMA combination (and neighbouring daily support from US$73,575) could trigger a recovery (profit taking) on the daily timeframe, the room to discover deeper waters on the monthly timeframe toward support at US$68,926 places bulls in a questionable position at current levels and may see daily flow push southbound. Consequently, should the major crypto pair retest the underside of the daily range (see red arrows) before hitting the noted daily supports (and monthly support), this may be viewed as a sell-on-rally scenario.
Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
Bitcoin's Next Move: Decoding Market Signals Amid Volatility📅 Date: March 2, 2025
📈 Asset: Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
I. Market Overview: The Current Landscape
BINANCE:BTCUSD has been experiencing significant volatility in recent weeks. With prices currently hovering around $85,948, the market has seen sharp corrections followed by minor recoveries. This price action suggests a tug-of-war between bulls and bears as BTC approaches key resistance and support levels.
Macro factors such as inflation data, regulatory developments, and institutional adoption continue to influence Bitcoin’s trajectory. The global economic landscape remains uncertain, with interest rate policies from the Federal Reserve playing a pivotal role in shaping risk appetite across markets.
II. Technical Analysis: Decoding the Charts
1. Daily Chart (D1) - Identifying the Macro Trend
Trend Analysis: Bitcoin has recently experienced a pullback from the $95,000 level, correcting down to the $80,000-$85,000 range before showing signs of stabilization.
Support Levels: The nearest major support stands around $82,000, with a more substantial floor at $78,500 if selling pressure increases.
Resistance Levels: The immediate resistance is around $88,500-$90,000. A break above this zone could trigger a fresh rally toward the $100,000 psychological mark.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 31.13, indicating that Bitcoin is approaching oversold territory, which could signal a potential rebound.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is showing negative momentum, but a bullish crossover could occur if buying pressure increases.
Volume Analysis: There was a significant surge in volume during the recent dip, suggesting that buyers may be accumulating at lower levels.
2. 4-Hour Chart (H4) - Medium-Term Insights
Short-Term Trend: BTC is attempting to recover from recent losses, forming a higher low pattern around $84,000.
RSI: At 49.42, Bitcoin is neither overbought nor oversold, suggesting a neutral stance.
MACD: Showing early signs of bullish momentum, indicating a possible continuation of the recent rebound.
Key Level to Watch: If BTC can break and hold above $87,000, we may see further bullish action toward $90,000.
3. 1-Hour Chart (H1) - Intraday Trading Perspective
Short-Term Trend: Bitcoin is consolidating in a tight range between $85,000-$86,500.
RSI: Slightly over 60.70, suggesting mild bullish momentum but not yet in the overbought zone.
MACD: Bullish crossover confirmed, but price action needs to hold above $86,000 to validate a continued move higher.
Volume Analysis: Low volume indicates a lack of strong conviction from either buyers or sellers at this stage.
III. Fundamental Analysis: Key Drivers Behind Bitcoin’s Movement
🔹 Macroeconomic Factors:
U.S. Federal Reserve Policy: Recent statements from the Fed suggest a potential pause or slowdown in interest rate hikes, which could benefit BTC as a hedge against inflation.
Institutional Demand: Large financial firms continue to accumulate Bitcoin, with ETF inflows showing positive sentiment.
Regulatory News: Any clarity on cryptocurrency regulation will play a significant role in determining BTC’s next major move.
🔹 On-Chain Metrics:
Exchange Reserves: Bitcoin exchange reserves have decreased, suggesting that holders prefer to keep their BTC in private wallets—a bullish indicator.
Whale Activity: Large transactions (above $10M) have surged, indicating potential institutional accumulation.
IV. Market Sentiment Analysis: What Are Traders Thinking?
Fear & Greed Index:
Currently at 45 (Neutral to Slight Fear), indicating that the market is cautious but not yet in extreme fear territory.
Social Media & News Sentiment:
Increasing discussions around Bitcoin ETFs and potential bullish cycles suggest that the broader community still holds a positive outlook.
However, concerns over potential market manipulation and regulatory scrutiny remain a key risk.
V. Trading Strategy & Key Levels to Watch
1. Swing Trading Strategy
Entry (Buy) Zone: $84,500 - $85,500 (Accumulation area)
Take Profit (TP) Levels:
First TP: $88,500
Second TP: $92,000
Stop Loss (SL): $82,000 (Below strong support)
2. Scalping Strategy (Short-Term)
Entry: Buy BTC if price holds above $86,000
Target: $87,500 - $88,000
Stop Loss: $85,000
3. Bearish Scenario (If BTC Breaks Below $82,000)
Next Support Levels: $78,500 and $75,000
Potential Shorting Opportunity Below: $82,000 with TP at $79,000 and SL at $85,000
VI. Conclusion & Final Thoughts
Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture, with price action indicating potential for both a rebound and further downside risk. The coming days will be crucial, with traders needing to watch key levels such as $86,000 (short-term resistance) and $82,000 (major support).
If Bitcoin can hold above $85,000, we may see another attempt to reclaim $90,000. However, failure to maintain support levels could trigger a drop toward $78,500.
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BITCOIN on Daily ChartThis analysis suggests that Bitcoin completed a major cycle in November 2022 and subsequently began an upward trend, characterized by an extended Wave (3) of the Intermediate degree, following Elliott Wave Theory principles. A recent breakdown below the Minor Wave 4 indicates a potential retracement. The analysis identifies a key retracement zone at approximately 61.8% of the previous upward move, potentially representing the Wave ((2)) of the Primary degree. This level is crucial for observing potential support and a trend reversal.
Disclaimer :
Not Financial Advice : This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any cryptocurrency.
Market Volatility : The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and subject to rapid and unpredictable price swings.
Risk of Loss : Trading and investing in cryptocurrencies involve substantial risk of loss. You could lose some or all of your invested capital.
Independent Research : You should conduct your own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
UniversOfSignals | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #20Let's dive into the Bitcoin analysis and key crypto indices, where I will, as usual, review the futures triggers for today's New York session. The market had an upward and corrective movement yesterday, rising from the support at 78,940. Today, I aim to examine the market conditions for you.
⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe
In the 1-hour timeframe, as you can see, the price has risen from the support at 78,940 and managed to exceed the area of 83,779. A V pattern has formed and has been activated, moving the price upward. It appears that the break of 83,779 so far was a fake break.
🔼 If 83,779 is broken again, you can enter a short position targeting 78,940, but keep in mind that since the price has already faked a break, there might be an upward momentum entering the market. If 82,770 breaks, you could consider taking the risk of opening a long position.
⚡️ Personally, I prefer to open a long position with the minimum risk allowed by my strategy, but if 83,779 breaks, I will open a short position with usual risk. As you can see, the price has also hit the SMA 99 and seems to be getting rejected from it.
📉 This could be another suitable confirmation for a short position, and if the price cannot stabilize above this SMA and gets rejected from this area, breaking 83,779, we could even expect the next bearish leg towards lower lows, although the first target for us would be 78,940.
✅ The RSI oscillator has also moved out of the oversell zone and above the 50 area. A break of the 50 zone could reintroduce bearish momentum into the market.
📊 Keep in mind that today is Saturday, considered a holiday, and the market volume is very low. I generally prefer the market to range on such days and then start moving afterward.
👑 BTC.D Analysis
Let's move on to analyzing Bitcoin dominance to see how Bitcoin's dominance over the market has changed compared to yesterday. As you can see, after being supported at 60.48 and breaking the 60.91 area, it's moving upwards again.
💫 As I mentioned, a range box has formed between 60.48 and 62.19, and I told you yesterday that if the dominance stabilizes above 60.91, it could start moving towards the box's ceiling.
🎲 As you can see, this movement has started, and so far, the dominance has reached 61.21. We need to see how the dominance reacts to this area. If this area breaks, the next resistance levels for dominance will be 61.49 and 62.19.
🧲 I have nothing more to say about Bitcoin dominance. It seems to be forming an upward structure, and if this upward structure coincides with the next bearish leg of Bitcoin, altcoins could provide very good short positions and experience sharp declines.
📅 Total2 Analysis
Let's move on to analyze Total2 to see what the triggers for altcoins will be. As you can see, Total2 was supported from 1.01 and has moved upward to 1.09, where it is currently being rejected.
🔍 As you observe, the SMA 99 in Total2 has reached the price and the price has reacted to it. We have a very risky trigger for a short position on Total2, which is the break of 1.06; this position is very risky and can be opened as a scalp in lower timeframes.
🚀 The highest target I can consider for this position will be the area of 1.01.
📅 USDT.D Analysis
Let's move on to the analysis of Tether dominance. As you see, Tether's dominance was rejected from 5.50 and has moved downward, reaching back to 5.21. This index, like Bitcoin and Total2, has reached the SMA 99 and been supported from this area, and could perform its next bullish leg after breaking 5.21.
💥 In this case, you could confirm the bullish turn of Tether's dominance and validate this dominance for the next bearish leg of the price.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
$USDT DOMINANCE ANALYSIS USDT.D is approaching a major downtrend resistance.
A rejection from this level could trigger a pullback, forming a lower high structure before targeting the key support zone at 3.80%.
Bearish Outlook:
Rejection at resistance 5.30% zone, Lower highs formation
Potential drop to strong support
What This Means for Crypto?
A decline in USDT dominance usually signals bullish momentum for #Altcoins & #BTC!
Keep an eye on the reaction at resistance.
Bitcoin Timeframe 1h Clear Bullish Broadening Wedge Target 89kI see the BTC Pattern in the 1h timeframe where there is the potential to form a descending broadening wedge pattern where the main target for the increase if the breakout is valid is at a price of $ 89k. Of course we need to see another correction as confirmation if BTC does form this descending broadening wedge pattern. For the closest confirmation as the bitcoin retest area is at a price of $ 82k. Then if bitcoin can bounce off that price and can breakout above the trendline broadening wedge make bullish trend will continue to $ 96k. But if bitcoin dumps so that it makes a New Lower Low I think the red line $ 77k. is very likely to be visited because it is the lowest line area of the descending broadening wedge pattern.
BTC Rebalance in Play? Key Retrace Setup Unfolding!Bitcoin has tapped into a bullish imbalance on the weekly timeframe—a natural move as the market seeks to rebalance. 🔄 We often see reactions around the midpoint of these levels.
If price starts ranging sideways and breaks structure to the upside, we could consider a counter-trend trade on the retrace, then look for another sell opportunity as it pulls back. 📊
I’ll aim to follow up with a video over the weekend. Stay tuned! 🎥
Not financial advice. ⚠️
Bitcoin Finds Strong Support – Is a Reversal on the Horizon?hello guys
Bitcoin recently completed a crown pattern, a bearish reversal formation that signaled a downward move. As expected, BTC followed the pattern structure and reached its target.
Currently, the price has touched two critical technical levels:
✔ The balance line – A key horizontal support zone
✔ The ascending trendline – Acting as dynamic support from previous lows
This confluence of support suggests that BTC might be at a potential reversal zone. However, while the conditions seem favorable for an upward movement, we need additional confirmation. Possible bullish signals to watch for include:
A strong bullish candlestick pattern (e.g., engulfing, pin bar)
Increased buying volume
A break above the nearest resistance level
If BTC maintains this support, we could see a recovery towards $90K+ levels in the short term. Otherwise, a breakdown below the trendline may trigger further downside.
CHECK BTCUSD ANALYSIS SIGNAL UPDATE > GO AND READ THE CAPTAINBaddy dears friends 👋🏼
(BTCUSD) trading signals technical analysis satup👇🏼
I think now (BTCUSD) ready for( SEEL )trade ( BTCUSD) SEEL zone
( TRADE SATUP) 👇🏼
ENTRY POINT (79400) to (79600) 📊
FIRST TP (78700)📊
2ND TARGET (78000)📊
LAST TARGET (76900) 📊
STOP LOOS (80800)❌
Tachincal analysis satup
Fallow risk management
When will BTC kiss $80K again?When Will BTC Reclaim $80K?
Bitcoin’s price action over the past year has been nothing short of remarkable, delivering substantial gains for long-term investors. However, BTC has been facing strong resistance at its previous all-time high (ATH) recorded on December 17, 2024.
While Bitcoin briefly surpassed this level on January 20, 2025, the breakout was short-lived, leading to the formation of a potential double-top (M-pattern)—a classic reversal pattern in technical analysis. If this pattern plays out, Bitcoin could face a corrective move, potentially testing lower support levels before attempting another breakout.
From a strategic standpoint, the $80K region could present a strong buying opportunity, depending on broader market sentiment, macroeconomic factors, and liquidity inflows. Traders and investors should monitor key support zones, volume trends, and confirmation signals before positioning for Bitcoin’s next move.
Would you like a more detailed analysis, including key support and resistance levels?
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BTC retrace of 30% beginning of 2025? Historical Data suggest that #BTC could retrace by about -30% down to the 75K mark before continuing its rally throughout 2025. I am keeping an eye out for the repetition of this pattern.
Crab Pattern Based on the provided chart, there is a possibility for the Crab Pattern to complete. In this pattern, point D typically forms at higher Fibonacci levels, specifically around 2.618 of the BC leg.
In this chart, the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) is identified as a key area for the pattern’s completion. This zone can act as a potential point for a price reversal. The Crab Pattern often emerges at extreme price levels, and if the price reaches this zone, a reaction or reversal might occur.
To confirm the completion of this pattern, analyzing price behavior near the PRZ is crucial. Using additional technical indicators such as trading volume, momentum indicators, and candlestick patterns can provide more precise insights. Overall, the pattern has the potential to complete, but traders should wait for further confirmation from the market.
BTCUSDT WAVE ANALYSIS"Below is an Elliott Wave analysis of $BINANCE:BTCUSD. Based on the analysis, I believe that a bullish 5-wave pattern was completed in January 2025, and Bitcoin is now experiencing a bearish movement.
P.S.:
Red zones indicate resistance areas.
Green zones represent support areas.
Orange zones correspond to Fibonacci targets at 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%."
BTC FUTUREi think the btc will going as like this
btc will down betwin 72000$ to 68000$
then will pumped start at 80000$ to 150or200000$
Bitcoin Reversal Setup – Potential Upside Within the ChannelBTC/USD is currently trading within a descending channel on the 1H timeframe. The price has recently bounced from the lower trendline support, indicating a possible reversal.
Key Levels & Observations:
• Support Zone: ~ $78,000 (recent low & trendline support)
• Resistance Levels:
• $95,000 (major resistance level within the channel)
• $96,000 (potential breakout level)
Trading Idea:
A bullish move is anticipated if BTC holds above the lower trendline. A potential target is the mid-channel resistance ($93,000), with an extended move toward the upper boundary ($94,600). A break above this level could signal a broader trend reversal.
BTC Explanationexplanation of previous BTC analysis.
our perspective is based on ichimoku and you see all we said about BTC is completely done!
BTC ——> LONG This is a normal correction , don’t panic too much, in the long term we will hit a new ATH
BITCOIN Strong Bearish Breakout!
HI,Traders !
BITCOIN is trading in a
Downtrend and
Broke the key horizontal
Level of 92425.6 and the
Breakout is confirmed
Which reinforces our
Bearish bias and makes
Us expect a further
Bearish continuation !
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
BTC Ready To Going $200K!I am Sharing Currentn Analysis Of BTC where You Can Take Idia From This Analysis And Help In To Your Trading Journey Market Coming In Their Nearest Buying Zone This is very Important Zone For BTC Here Is BTC Will Try To Fly To Upside And Test To Resistance Side.
Remember! Without Risk Management Trading is Gambling 📊.
Short-Term Bitcoin Balances at 2024 Lows: A Cooldown SignalThis chart tracks the total Bitcoin balance held by short-term holders, a key barometer for speculative interest.
Recently, these balances have declined to their lowest levels since October 2024 and remain on a downward trajectory. This drop mirrors the broader pullback in Bitcoin’s price, and this combination historically signaled cooldown phases in the market, as shown in the red box.
While such phases often involve short-term weakness, they also help reset market conditions and can pave the way for healthier, more sustainable price growth.
