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Btcusdbuy

Current BTC Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsToday, U.S. markets are closed, leading to light trading activity and relatively limited overall market volatility. From a technical analysis perspective, the 4-hour K-line chart currently shows prices trading below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, exhibiting a classic range-bound consolidation pattern. Bulls and bears are locked in a tug-of-war between key support and resistance levels, with K-line formations alternating between bullish and bearish patterns. In terms of chart structure, the lower support zone has demonstrated strong buying conviction, while the upper resistance level has exerted clear restrictive force. Multiple failed upward breakouts have formed a short-term top. This box consolidation—characterized by resistance above and support below—is expected to sustain sideways trading through Friday. Against the backdrop of no major positive catalysts, bearish momentum may gradually dominate if no substantial bullish triggers emerge. Maintain a trading strategy of selling into strength. BTCUSD 105000-105500 tp:104000-103000 Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by EvanField
Evening BTC Market Analysis and Trading RecommendationsToday, U.S. markets are closed, leading to light trading activity and relatively limited overall market volatility. From a technical analysis perspective, the 4-hour K-line chart currently shows prices trading below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, exhibiting a classic range-bound consolidation pattern. Bulls and bears are locked in a tug-of-war between key support and resistance levels, with K-line formations alternating between bullish and bearish patterns. In terms of chart structure, the lower support zone has demonstrated strong buying conviction, while the upper resistance level has exerted clear restrictive force. Multiple failed upward breakouts have formed a short-term top. This box consolidation—characterized by resistance above and support below—is expected to sustain sideways trading through Friday. Against the backdrop of no major positive catalysts, bearish momentum may gradually dominate if no substantial bullish triggers emerge. Maintain a trading strategy of selling into strength. BTCUSDT 105000-105500 tp:104000-103000 Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
Short
by EvanField
BTC Consolidates 104000-105000: Bearish Breakdown Looming?BTC Technical Update: Bitcoin has been consolidating within the 104000-105000 range for an extended period, with the overall trend showing a downward bias. With the overall trend tilting bearish, traders should watch for a break below 103500 to confirm the next leg down. 📉 ⚡️⚡️⚡️ BTCUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️ 🚀 Sell@ 105000 - 104500 🚀 TP 102500 - 101500 Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sovereign_1
BTC-----Buy around 104900, target 106000 areaTechnical analysis of BTC contract on June 19: Today, the large-cycle daily level closed with a small positive line yesterday, the K-line pattern was a single positive line with continuous negative lines, the price was below the moving average, and the attached indicator was dead cross. The general trend of the decline was still relatively obvious, but in trading, we should pay more attention to the rhythm of the price range in the shock, so the operation should be decisive, not greedy, and do a good job of risk control; the short-cycle hourly chart yesterday's intraday support was corrected upward, the European session fell but did not continue to break down, the price support rebounded in the early morning, the current K-line pattern was a single positive line with continuous positive lines, and the attached indicator was golden cross, so it is highly likely to break through yesterday's high of 105500 area within the day. Today's BTC short-term contract trading strategy: Buy at the current price of 104900 area, stop loss at 104000 area, and target 106000 area;
Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 3H Technical Analysis – Bearish Outlook Unfold📉 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 3H Technical Analysis – Bearish Outlook Unfolding 🔍 📅 Date: June 19, 2025 🕒 Timeframe: 3-Hour (3H) 💰 Current Price: $105,042 📊 Indicators: EMA 50, EMA 200, RSI 14 🧱 Key Levels: 🔼 Resistance Zone: $105,570 – $106,865 (Confluence of 50 EMA, 200 EMA, and historical supply) 🟩 Support Zone: $100,900 – $101,300 (Previous demand zone and projected target) 🔍 Technical Observations: Double EMA Barrier 🚧 Price is consolidating below both the 50 EMA ($105,632) and 200 EMA ($105,570), indicating bearish pressure. These EMAs are acting as a strong dynamic resistance. Bearish Structure 📉 The market is forming lower highs and lower lows, maintaining a descending structure. The price attempted to break above resistance but faced rejection. Resistance Confirmation 🧱 The zone around $105,500 – $106,800 has been tested multiple times without a successful breakout, confirming it as a strong supply zone. Projected Bearish Move 📉🔜 The expected path suggests a retest of resistance, followed by a downward move toward the target at $101,213, which aligns with the support zone. RSI Bearish Divergence 📉📊 RSI at 47.75 is below 50 and trending downward, signaling weak bullish momentum and potential for further downside. 🎯 Summary: ⚠️ Bias: Bearish 📌 Entry Opportunity: On rejection near $105,500–$106,100 zone 🎯 Target: $101,213 ⛔ Invalidation Level: Break and close above $106,865 with volume 🧠 Pro Tip: Watch closely for price action near the resistance zone. If it fails to break through, a short position targeting the green support box could be favorable. 📉💥 "Trade the trend, not your bias." 💥📉 🔍 📅 Date: June 19, 2025 🕒 Timeframe: 3-Hour (3H) 💰 Current Price: $105,042 📊 Indicators: EMA 50, EMA 200, RSI 14 🧱 Key Levels: 🔼 Resistance Zone: $105,570 – $106,865 (Confluence of 50 EMA, 200 EMA, and historical supply) 🟩 Support Zone: $100,900 – $101,300 (Previous demand zone and projected target) 🔍 Technical Observations: Double EMA Barrier 🚧 Price is consolidating below both the 50 EMA ($105,632) and 200 EMA ($105,570), indicating bearish pressure. These EMAs are acting as a strong dynamic resistance. Bearish Structure 📉 The market is forming lower highs and lower lows, maintaining a descending structure. The price attempted to break above resistance but faced rejection. Resistance Confirmation 🧱 The zone around $105,500 – $106,800 has been tested multiple times without a successful breakout, confirming it as a strong supply zone. Projected Bearish Move 📉🔜 The expected path suggests a retest of resistance, followed by a downward move toward the target at $101,213, which aligns with the support zone. RSI Bearish Divergence 📉📊 RSI at 47.75 is below 50 and trending downward, signaling weak bullish momentum and potential for further downside. 🎯 Summary: ⚠️ Bias: Bearish 📌 Entry Opportunity: On rejection near $105,500–$106,100 zone 🎯 Target: $101,213 ⛔ Invalidation Level: Break and close above $106,865 with volume 🧠 Pro Tip: Watch closely for price action near the resistance zone. If it fails to break through, a short position targeting the green support box could be favorable. 📉💥 "Trade the trend, not your bias." 💥📉
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by ITC_SMC_Trading_Strategies
BTCUSD Analysis UpdateBTC/USD Analysis Update 📈 Bitcoin has rebounded successfully after touching the 103500 support level and is currently trading around 105500. However, the ongoing correction may continue to test the psychological support at the 100000 round number in the short term ⚠️. Key Points: Support Bounce 🎯: BTC found buying interest at 103500, in line with our previous strategic analysis. Immediate Resistance 📉: The current rebound faces direct resistance near 106000 (200-hour moving average). Downside Risk 📉: Failure to hold above 105000 could trigger another decline toward 100000. Risk Management: Long positions should set stop-loss below 103000 ⛔️. Short entries may consider the 106000–107000 range, targeting 102500 and 100000 ⚡️⚡️⚡️ BTCUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️ 🚀 Buy@ 102500 - 103500 🚀 TP 106000 - 106500 🚀 Sell@ 106000 - 106500 🚀 TP 103500 - 101500 Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sovereign_1
Current BTC Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsThe daily candlestick chart of BTC shows a three - day consecutive bearish retracement, having fallen back to the vicinity of the starting point of the previous pinbar rebound and currently remaining in a recent low - level sideways consolidation zone. However, the 4 - hour trend is pressured by the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, staying within a downward channel and forming a rebound - retracement wave pattern. For short - term strategies, anticipate a further retracement first. Long positions should be initiated only after the support level is confirmed valid. This retracement represents a necessary consolidation phase before the bullish trend continues, and the current adjustment range does not pose a substantial threat of trend reversal to the overall uptrend. With the core upward trend intact and the direction remaining clear, BTC is expected to resume its upward momentum after a brief consolidation. The operational approach remains to go long on retracements. BTCUSD buy@103500-104000 tp:105500-106500 Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by EvanField
Current BTC Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsThe daily candlestick chart of BTC shows a three - day consecutive bearish retracement, having fallen back to the vicinity of the starting point of the previous pinbar rebound and currently remaining in a recent low - level sideways consolidation zone. However, the 4 - hour trend is pressured by the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, staying within a downward channel and forming a rebound - retracement wave pattern. For short - term strategies, anticipate a further retracement first. Long positions should be initiated only after the support level is confirmed valid. This retracement represents a necessary consolidation phase before the bullish trend continues, and the current adjustment range does not pose a substantial threat of trend reversal to the overall uptrend. With the core upward trend intact and the direction remaining clear, BTC is expected to resume its upward momentum after a brief consolidation. The operational approach remains to go long on retracements. BTCUSD buy@103500-104000 tp:105500-106500 Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
Long
by EvanField
Btc seizes the opportunity to trade with the trendTechnical analysis of BTC contract on June 20: Today, the large-cycle daily level closed with a small negative line yesterday, and the K-line pattern was a single positive line with a continuous negative line. The price was below the moving average, and the attached indicator was dead cross and running downward, but we should note that the overall volatility this week was not large, and the fluctuation was in a small range. So we should pay attention to keeping short-term trading and closing profits in time. Don't hesitate, drag, and don't think about a big rise or fall. After a large drop on Tuesday this week, the short-term hourly chart has entered a small range of fluctuations. There is no continuation or breakout, so we should just follow the trend. We have sold at the high point of 105,500 as a defense, and bought at 103,000 as a defense, for short-term trading.
by NuggetsWarriors
BTC/USD Potential Bullish ReversalBTC/USD Potential Bullish Reversal 🟢📈 🔍 Technical Overview: The chart shows a potential bullish reversal pattern forming near a key support zone. Price action has consistently bounced from the support range between $100,000 – $103,700, marked by multiple higher lows (🟠 orange circles), suggesting strong buyer interest. 📌 Key Levels: Support Zone: $100,000 – $103,700 🛡️ Immediate Resistance: $110,384 🔼 Current Price: $105,202 💰 📊 Pattern Observed: The price structure shows a possible inverted head and shoulders pattern forming, with the right shoulder currently developing. If this structure completes and breaks the $106,000–$107,000 neckline region, we can expect a bullish breakout toward the resistance target of $110,384 or higher. 📈 Bullish Confirmation: Bullish rejection from support area ✅ Clean structure with repeated higher lows 📈 Potential breakout arrow suggests move toward the top resistance zone ⚠️ Watch For: Price must hold above $103,700 to maintain bullish bias Break below this level may invalidate bullish setup and retest the broader support zone near $100,000 📌 Conclusion: BTC/USD is setting up for a potential upside breakout if the neckline is broken. Traders should monitor for bullish confirmation before entering long positions. 🔔 Strategy Suggestion: Buy Zone: $103,700 – $104,500 (on bullish confirmation) 🛒 Target Zone: $110,000 – $111,000 🎯 Stop-Loss: Below $103,000 🛑
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MrStellanSight
BTCUSD Tests Support—Buy for ReboundBTCUSD opened high and trended lower today 📉, now approaching the support zone—time to buy directly and ride the rebound! 🚀 ⚡️⚡️⚡️ BTCUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️ 🚀 Buy@ 105000 - 105500 🚀 TP 106000 - 107500 Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sovereign_1
BTC/USDT Long Trade Setup – 1H Chart AnalysisBTC/USDT Long Trade Setup – 1H Chart Analysis BINANCE:BTCUSDT Hello traders! Sharing a recent long entry I took on Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) based on price action and liquidity concepts. This trade is taken on the 1-hour timeframe and aligns with my strategy of combining liquidity sweeps, support zones, and market structure shifts. --- 🔍 Trade Overview: Entry Price: 104,704 USDT Stop Loss: 103,660 USDT Take Profit (Target): 108,349 USDT Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR): Approximately 1:3 --- 🧠 Trade Idea Behind the Entry: As you can see on the chart, BTC had been in a downtrend and recently made a strong move into a key liquidity zone. This zone had previously seen multiple touches and rejections, making it an area of interest for both buyers and sellers. The price swept liquidity below the previous low (labelled as “Liquidity Sweep $$$”), grabbing stop losses of early buyers and triggering limit orders of smart money. This move into the liquidity zone was followed by a strong bullish reaction – a signal that buyers may be stepping in. Additionally, the "Break of Structure" (BOS) confirms a potential shift in market direction. The reaction from the liquidity zone indicates that this level is holding as new support. --- 🛠️ Why I Took the Trade: 1. Liquidity Sweep: The wick that pierced the liquidity zone signals stop-hunting and accumulation. These moves often precede a strong reversal. 2. Demand Zone Reaction: After the sweep, the candle closed bullish inside the demand box. This shows buyer strength. 3. Risk Management: The stop loss is set just below the liquidity zone to protect from deeper sweeps while keeping the RR healthy. 4. High Probability Target: The target is placed near the next resistance level around 108,349, which also aligns with a clean imbalance that price may want to fill. --- 📊 Technical Confidence: Confluence Factors: ✅ Liquidity sweep ✅ Demand zone reaction ✅ Market structure shift ✅ High RR ✅ No immediate resistance till target This type of setup reflects smart money behavior – first pushing price below structure to grab liquidity and then reversing sharply. The bullish momentum after the sweep gave extra confirmation. --- 🧭 What I’m Watching Now: I will continue monitoring how price reacts around the 105,500–106,000 range. If momentum continues with higher highs and higher lows, I may trail my stop loss to lock in profits. --- Let me know what you think of this setup! Have you taken a similar trade or are you waiting for confirmation? Drop your thoughts or charts below 👇 Stay disciplined, manage your risk, and trust the process. 🚀 #Bitcoin #BTCUSD #PriceAction #LiquiditySweep #SmartMoney #CryptoTrading #TradingSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #TradeJournal
Long
by Jamtara_Trader
BTC Trend Analysis and Trading Recommendations for TodayThe BTC market continues its sideways-down trend, with notably insufficient rebound momentum during the session. Although there were brief signs of stabilization in the early trading, bearish forces continued to exert pressure during the European session, and the index showed a staircase decline. From the 4-hour chart analysis, the price once fell to touch the middle Bollinger Band support during the Asian session, followed by a technical rebound. However, the rebound strength was obviously weak, encountering strong resistance near the middle band. The current candlestick pattern presents a typical Dark Cloud Cover, the MACD indicator continues to release volume below the zero axis, with fast and slow lines in bearish alignment. Technically, the price remains significantly pressured near the middle band, and the US session is likely to extend the existing downtrend. Investors are advised to maintain a bearish stance. If the price effectively breaks below the middle band support, the next target is targeted at the lower Bollinger Band. Strategically, fading rallies remains the preferred approach. BTCUSD sell@106500-106000 tp:105000-104000
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by EvanField
PNUTUSDT Forming Falling WedgePNUTUSDT is presenting a compelling falling wedge pattern, signaling a high-probability bullish reversal. This technical formation typically occurs after a sustained downtrend and is characterized by converging trendlines sloping downward. In the case of PNUTUSDT, the wedge is nearing its apex, indicating that a breakout is likely imminent. The setup is further supported by healthy volume levels, adding credibility to the expected move. Historically, falling wedges often lead to explosive upside moves, and this pair is currently projecting a potential gain of 90% to 100%+ if the breakout confirms. Market interest in PNUTUSDT is steadily growing, as indicated by rising trading activity and increased visibility across community forums and social platforms. This surge in attention aligns with the volume spike seen during recent trading sessions — a classic precursor to bullish breakouts. As more investors start to take positions in anticipation of a breakout, price momentum can accelerate rapidly, creating ideal conditions for short- to mid-term gains. From a technical standpoint, a confirmed breakout above the wedge’s upper resistance line could open the door to rapid price expansion, especially with limited overhead resistance. Traders should watch for confirmation signals such as strong bullish candlesticks, increasing volume, or a retest of the breakout level. PNUTUSDT is shaping up as an exciting opportunity for swing traders looking to capitalize on pattern-based moves in the altcoin space. With bullish sentiment, clear technical structure, and improving market participation, PNUTUSDT could be on the verge of a significant breakout. It’s a setup that combines strong technicals with growing investor interest — a powerful combination in crypto trading. ✅ Show your support by hitting the like button and ✅ Leaving a comment below! (What is You opinion about this Coin) Your feedback and engagement keep me inspired to share more insightful market analysis with you!
Long
by Alpha-GoldFX
Accumulate, BTC back above 110K💎 BTC PLAN UPDATE (June 16) NOTABLE BITCOIN (BTC) NEWS: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) are showing signs of stabilization around key support levels following last week’s correction. BTC is attempting to regain momentum after closing below a critical support zone, while ETH and XRP are hovering near technical thresholds that could determine their next directional move. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OUTLOOK: Bitcoin could decline further if it closes below the 50-day EMA Bitcoin closed below its daily support at $106,406 on Thursday, then bounced back after retesting the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $102,893 on Friday. BTC has since stabilized around the $105,000 level over the weekend. As of Monday, it continues to consolidate, trading near $105,788. If BTC fails to close above the $106,406 resistance level and heads lower, it may extend its decline toward the psychologically significant $100,000 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is hovering around the neutral 50 mark, signaling indecision among traders. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a bearish crossover on the daily chart, indicating selling pressure and a possible downtrend continuation. At this stage, whether you're new or experienced, it's wise to spend more time practicing, deepening your technical analysis knowledge, and exploring educational content shared on the channel. Strengthening your foundation will help you protect your capital in this volatile environment. ==> This analysis is for trend reference only. Wishing all investors successful trades!
Long
by Nova-Scalper
1
BTC/USD Potential Reversal & Bullish Breakout SetupBTC/USD Potential Reversal & Bullish Breakout Setup 🔄🚀 Technical Analysis Overview: 🔹 Pattern Formation: The chart displays a potential Triple Bottom pattern (🟠), a classic reversal signal forming at the $104,870–$100,000 support zone 🛡️. This structure suggests a strong base is being established for a potential upside move. 🔹 Support Zone: 📉 The price has consistently bounced off the major support area around $100,000–$104,870, indicating strong buying interest. 🔹 Resistance Zone: 📊 The key resistance level lies around the $114,000–$115,000 range 🔵, which has been tested multiple times in the past (🔴 arrows) and could act as a future profit target. 🔹 Price Action & Projection: Currently, price is trading near $107,025 and is showing signs of bullish continuation after forming a higher low. If the price consolidates above the $104,870 zone and holds support, we could see a potential breakout targeting the $114,000 resistance 📈. 📌 Key Takeaways: ✅ Triple Bottom formation signals trend reversal. 🔄 Bullish structure confirmed above $104,870. 🎯 Next target: $114,000 if breakout holds. ⚠️ Watch for potential consolidation before continuation.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MrStellanSight
Bitcoin Bounce & Breakout PlayChart Analysis: 🔹 Support Holding Strong: BTC is respecting a key support area (~$105,600), which previously acted as resistance (marked by recent ATH). 🔹 EMA 70 (Blue Line): Price is hovering above the EMA, adding bullish confirmation. 🔹 Bullish Projection Path: The chart shows a projected bullish move toward the sell zone near $113,200 – $113,300, representing a potential 4.4% gain from the breakout. 🔹 Key Zones: Support Zone: $105,600 Supply Zone: $100,500 Sell Zone (TP Zone): $113,200+ 📌 Outlook: If BTC breaks and holds above the resistance (~$107,000), a strong upward rally could follow. Entry near support or on breakout, with tight risk management, offers a favorable risk/reward. ✅ Entry Options: Breakout Entry: Trigger: Break and close above $107,200 Confirmation: Retest and hold above the breakout zone Entry: $107,300 – $107,500 Support Bounce Entry: Trigger: Pullback to support zone (~$105,600) with bullish reversal candle Entry: $105,600 – $105,800 🎯 Target Zones (TP): TP1: $110,400 (minor resistance) TP2: $113,200 – $113,300 (major sell zone) TP3 (aggressive): $114,000+ 🔻 Stop Loss (SL): For breakout entry: SL below $106,200 For bounce entry: SL below $105,200 or $104,800 (structure break) 📈 Risk–Reward Ratio: Approx. 1:2.5 to 1:3+ depending on entry and target 🧠 Trade Management: Move SL to breakeven after hitting TP1 Partial profit booking at TP1 Trail remaining with manual or dynamic SL (e.g., below EMA or recent low) ⚠️ Risk Notes: Avoid chasing price without breakout confirmation Watch for fakeouts and heavy selling near TP zones Adjust position size based on your risk tolerance
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by KingProTrader
BTC “Golden Cross” Looms, but Geopolitics Could Delay ItBitcoin’s “Golden Cross” Looms, but Geopolitical Shocks Could Delay the Breakout Deep dive into price action, derivatives, on-chain data, and the tug-of-war between Middle-East risk and crypto bull-run momentum ________________________________________ Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary 2. Scene-Setter: BTC at $105 K in a World on Edge 3. Technical Spark: What a Golden Cross Really Means 4. Price Action: From $103 K Dip to $106.8 K Hurdle 5. Options Market: A Sudden Lurch Toward Puts 6. Macro Overhang: Why Israel–Iran Turmoil Matters to Bitcoin 7. On-Chain Pulse: 656 % Cycle Gain, Yet Supply Is Tighter Than 2021 8. Mining Fundamentals: Difficulty Eases, Margins Improve 9. Corporate Treasuries: The Quiet, Sticky Bid 10. Targets & Scenarios: $97 K Downside vs. $229 K Upside 11. Strategy Playbook for Traders & Investors 12. Conclusion: Delayed, Not Derailed 13. Disclaimers ________________________________________ 1. Executive Summary • Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in a tight $103 K–$108 K band, unable to confirm a breakout as Middle-East tensions push investors into hedging mode. • A Golden Cross—the 50-day SMA crossing above the 200-day—could flash within 10 trading sessions, historically adding +37 % median upside over the subsequent 90 days. • Options flow has flipped decisively toward puts, with the 25-delta skew hitting –10 %, its most bearish since the FTX collapse, signaling short-term anxiety even as long-term bets remain bullish. • On-chain metrics (exchange balances at six-year lows, HODLer supply at all-time highs) reveal structural demand; Glassnode notes a 656 % cycle advance despite a trillion-dollar market cap. • Analysts’ upside targets range from $140 K (Q3) to $270 K (October) and even $229 K based on the Golden Cross fractal. Yet a clean break of $104 K support opens room to $97 K first. ________________________________________ 2. Scene-Setter: BTC at $105 K in a World on Edge Bitcoin entered 2025 with a blistering rally—spot ETFs hoovered nearly 200 K coins in four months, miners sold aggressively into strength, and macro tailwinds (Fed easing, USD weakness) fueled risk appetite. Then two macro curveballs hit: 1. Sticky U.S. core inflation revived “higher-for-longer” rate fears. 2. Israel–Iran hostilities spooked global markets, sending Brent crude to $76 and sparking a dash for USD liquidity. BTC, once heralded as “digital gold,” behaved like a high-beta tech stock: it slipped 7 % in 48 hours, tagging $103,200 before bargain hunters stepped in. As of this writing, price sits near $105,800—right on the 100-hour SMA. Whether we escape the range depends on which force proves stronger: geopolitical dread or the long-term structural bid. ________________________________________ 3. Technical Spark: What a Golden Cross Really Means A Golden Cross occurs when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA-50) crosses above the 200-day (SMA-200). In Bitcoin’s 14-year history, we have logged nine such events: Year Days to Cross 90-Day Return 180-Day Return 2013 51 +88 % +202 % 2015 73 +34 % +67 % 2019 46 +193 % +262 % 2020 38 +77 % +112 % 2023 59 +29 % +48 % Median 90-day gain: +37 % Median drawdown post-cross: –12 % We are ~$700 shy of triggering the cross (SMA-50 at $97.9 K, SMA-200 at $98.1 K and rising). Assuming volatility stays muted, the lines converge within two weeks, potentially firing a widely watched buy signal. But remember: the cross is lagging; smart traders anticipate, not react. ________________________________________ 4. Price Action: From $103 K Dip to $106.8 K Hurdle Key intraday levels (Kraken feed): • Support 1: $104,000 – prior weekly low + bullish order-block • Support 2: $101,200 – 0.786 Fib retrace of the Feb–Mar impulse • Bear Pivot: $97,000 – 200-day EMA + high-confluence volume node • Resistance 1: $106,800 – last week’s swing high; three failed probes • Resistance 2: $108,500 – May monthly open • Bull Pivot: $113,000 – neckline of the March distribution range Monday’s bounce broke a declining trend-line from $110 K, printing a higher low—constructive, yet bulls require a daily close >$106.8 K to invalidate the short-term bearish structure. ________________________________________ 5. Options Market: A Sudden Lurch Toward Puts Deribit data (largest BTC options venue): • Put/Call Ratio: 0.62 last Friday → 0.91 today • 25-Delta Skew (1-month): –10 %, lowest since Nov-2022 • Max-Pain for April 26 expiry: $104 K (huge open interest) Translation: traders rushed to buy protective puts as Iran war headlines crossed. Market-makers, short those puts, delta-hedged by shorting spot or perpetual futures, adding downward pressure—classic gamma feedback loop. Yet term structure remains contango; June and September IVs price higher topside. Institutions appear to sell near-dated panic, accumulate long-dated calls—a bullish medium-term stance. ________________________________________ 6. Macro Overhang: Why Israel–Iran Turmoil Matters to Bitcoin 1. Risk-Off Correlation: Despite “digital gold” narratives, BTC’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq-100 sits at 0.64; equities slide → crypto follows. 2. USD Liquidity Drain: War premium lifts oil, stoking inflation and forcing the Fed to delay cuts; higher real yields pressure non-yielding assets. 3. Regulatory Optics: Heightened national-security chatter emboldens lawmakers keen to scrutinize crypto, a perceived sanctions-evasion channel. 4. Regional Flows: The Middle-East hosts some of the largest sovereign-wealth pools; risk aversion could pause their crypto allocations. 5. Hence, every missile headline becomes a volatility catalyst. Still, flash-risk events fade quickly if energy supply stays intact, offering windows for BTC to re-assert its secular trend. ________________________________________ 7. On-Chain Pulse: 656 % Cycle Gain, Yet Supply Is Tighter Than 2021 Glassnode frames Bitcoin’s ongoing bull as “one of the most explosive relative to market cap gravity.” Highlights: • Cycle Return: 656 % from the $14 K November-2022 bottom—impressive given the asset is now >$2 T in free-float value, dwarfing 2017’s sub-$100 B base. • Exchange Balances: Just 2.02 M BTC on centralized venues—13-year low. • Realized Price (short-term holders): $92,500—suggests marginal buyers remain well in profit. • Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow: At 275 K BTC/day vs. 2021’s 550 K—implying HODLers are less willing to spend. Put simply: even after a seven-fold rally, supply scarcity persists. ________________________________________ 8. Mining Fundamentals: Difficulty Eases, Margins Improve The April 20 adjustment saw difficulty dip 1.2 %, the first contraction since January. Why it matters: • Post-Halving Breathing Room: Block subsidy fell to 1.5625 BTC; a difficulty rollback cushions miner profit margins, lowering forced selling risk. • Hashrate Plateau: Network hashrate hovers at 640 EH/s, only 3 % off the ATH—miners remain confident. • Transaction Fees: Average fee per block = 0.37 BTC, still elevated by historical standards thanks to BRC-20 activity. Miners thus appear cash-flow stable, reducing downside pressure on spot markets compared to previous post-halving eras. ________________________________________ 9. Corporate Treasuries: The Quiet, Sticky Bid Since MicroStrategy cracked the dam, 68 public companies now hold BTC on balance sheets, totaling 412,000 coins (~$43 B). Recent newcomers: Company Purchase Date BTC Added Avg Cost SemiconX Feb-2025 2,500 $94,800 Nordic Logistics Mar-2025 800 $98,200 Atlantech Energy Apr-2025 1,200 $101,500 Traits of corporate treasuries: • Long-Dated Liabilities: Align with Bitcoin’s four-year halving cadence. • Low Turnover: None of the 68 have sold core holdings despite 80 % drawdowns in 2022. • Regulatory Transparency: SEC filings broadcast purchases, inviting copycat demand. This sticky bid stabilizes spot markets during macro squalls. ________________________________________ 10. Targets & Scenarios: $97 K Downside vs. $229 K Upside Bearish Path (30 % probability) • Trigger: Israel–Iran broadens, Fed signals no cuts in 2025. • Price Action: Break $104 K, bulls capitulate at $97 K (200-day). • Depth: Could wick to $88–90 K (0.618 retrace) if macro gloom persists. Base Case (50 % probability) • Trigger: Skirmishes contained; oil cools, Fed cuts twice by December. • Price Action: Golden Cross confirms, BTC grinds to $128 K by September. • Highs: $140 K tap as ETF inflows resume. Bullish Path (20 % probability) • Trigger: Middle-East cease-fire + ETF FOMO round two + dovish Fed pivot. • Fractals: Prior Golden-Cross extensions averaged +120 % at extreme. • Price Action: $150 K by summer, $229 K (Fib 2.618 from 2022 low) by year-end. • Blow-Off: $270 K October spike before the next cyclical bear begins. ________________________________________ 11. Strategy Playbook for Traders & Investors Horizon Bias Instruments Risk Management Intraday (0–48 h) Range scalp $104–$107 K Perp futures (5× max), options gamma scalping Hard stop $103 K; position <1 % equity Swing (2–8 wks) Buy pullbacks ahead of Golden Cross Spot, dated futures roll, 1-month $110 K calls Stop $97 K daily close; size 5–10 % Position (3–6 mo) Accumulate for $140–150 K target Spot, June/Sept call spreads ($120/150) Hedge via 25 % put collar Long-Term (1–4 yr) Maintain core stash; ignore noise Cold storage, DCA Re-balance only when price doubles Optional hedge: Long Gold / Short BTC ratio spread as a geopolitical shock absorber; ratio 1.3 currently, mean-reverts to 1.1 post-crises. ________________________________________ 12. Conclusion: Delayed, Not Derailed Bitcoin stands at a crossroads: a textbook Golden Cross beckons, ETF inflows smolder, miners relax, and corporate treasuries drip-feed demand. Yet war headlines and a cautious options market act as sandbags on the balloon. History says macro shocks slow, not stop secular bull cycles. Unless Middle-East conflict strangles global liquidity or the Fed slams the brakes far harder than priced, BTC’s higher-time-frame structure remains bullish. Expect turbulence, embrace risk controls—but don’t mistake a weather delay for a busted engine. ________________________________________ 13. Disclaimers This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investing involves substantial risk; never invest more than you can afford to lose.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
THEUSDT Forming Falling Wedge BullishTHEUSDT is showcasing a strong technical breakout from a falling wedge pattern, a formation widely regarded as bullish in the world of crypto trading. This structure typically signals the end of a downtrend and the potential start of a strong upward movement. With price action now breaching the wedge’s upper resistance line and confirming bullish momentum, this breakout opens up the possibility for an explosive rally. Current projections point to a potential gain of 90% to 100%+, making it one of the more attractive setups among altcoins. The volume is also confirming the breakout, suggesting that traders and investors are actively entering positions. This increase in participation often fuels further upward movement, especially when combined with a technically significant chart pattern like this. THEUSDT is not only displaying strength on the technical side, but also showing promising signals from investor sentiment, with more eyes turning toward this project across social platforms. Price targets for this setup are derived from the height of the wedge and historical resistance zones. As seen in the chart, the upside potential could push THEUSDT toward the $0.50–$0.65 range, where previous liquidity zones may come into play. With altcoins heating up and capital rotating into high-upside plays, THEUSDT’s setup offers an excellent risk-to-reward profile at this stage. Traders should monitor volume continuation and possible retests of the breakout zone as confirmation. With the broader market recovering and interest returning to promising altcoins, THEUSDT stands out as a potential leader in the next bullish wave. ✅ Show your support by hitting the like button and ✅ Leaving a comment below! (What is You opinion about this Coin) Your feedback and engagement keep me inspired to share more insightful market analysis with you!
Long
by Alpha-GoldFX
Middle East Tensions Drive Capital Shift: BTC May Test 100K SupCurrently, we can clearly see that BTC is in a downward trend 🔻. Due to the tense situation in the Middle East 😰, a large amount of capital has flowed into gold and crude oil markets. BTCUSD is likely to continue its downward movement on Monday ⬇️. Let's focus on the support level at 100,000. If it breaks below 100,000, it may continue to decline ⚠️. ⚡️⚡️⚡️ BTCUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️ 🚀 Sell@ 106500 - 105500 🚀 TP 102000 - 101000 Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sovereign_1