BTC SHORT TERM FOLLOW UP BE SURE TO BUY AT 89-91k"Last alert for the dip — this is a follow-up to my initial analysis on the short-term period."
BTCUSDC
"Bitcoin Analysis" (Update)Here's what I can gather from the chart right now:
The Minor Resistance zone has been strongly broken to the upside; we haven't seen good pullbacks to this level yet.
On the other hand, below the broken zone, there's a price gap toward the FVG, as indicated by the arrow.
Also, the pullback to the breakout level at 0.382 has not been completed, and no patterns have formed in that area!
So? When we analyze all the breakout factors, we see a very high chance of a correction.
Now, this correction could start from the confirmation level at 96,364, or with an overextension, it could happen from the 98k zone.
Stay Awesome , CobraVanguard
New Bitcoin ATH Incoming? Key Bullish Signals & Decoupling AnalyBitcoin at the Precipice: Analyzing the Confluence of Bullish Signals, Decoupling Dynamics, and the Looming Question of a New All-Time High
The cryptocurrency market, and Bitcoin in particular, exists in a perpetual state of flux, analysis, and fervent speculation. In recent weeks and months, a compelling narrative has begun to coalesce, woven from disparate threads of technical indicators, on-chain data, market dynamics, and historical parallels. Bitcoin, after a period of consolidation and correction, appears to be sending signals that have historically preceded significant upward movements. Analysts are pointing to specific indicators flashing green, a potential local bottom seems confirmed, and intriguing shifts are occurring in mining difficulty and Bitcoin's relationship with the wider altcoin market. All this culminates in the tantalizing question echoing across trading desks and social media: Is a new Bitcoin All-Time High (ATH) incoming, perhaps even within the next year?
This article delves deep into the multifaceted factors fueling this speculation. We will dissect the analyst flags suggesting a major rally, examine the evidence for a confirmed local bottom, explore the significant decoupling of Bitcoin from altcoins, analyze the implications of the shifting mining difficulty, evaluate the compelling comparison to Gold's historical breakout, and assess the technical picture presented by indicators like the Stochastic RSI and Taker Buy/Sell ratio. By synthesizing these elements, we aim to provide a comprehensive overview of the forces currently shaping Bitcoin's trajectory and the arguments underpinning the bullish outlook for a potential new ATH, possibly targeting Q2 2025.
Part 1: Reading the Tea Leaves – Indicators Flagging a Potential Rally
Experienced market analysts often rely on a combination of technical and on-chain indicators to gauge market sentiment and predict future price movements. Recently, several reports have highlighted specific indicators whose current state mirrors conditions observed just before previous major Bitcoin bull runs. While the exact proprietary indicators used by every analyst vary, common themes emerge:
• On-Chain Metrics: These look at the activity happening directly on the Bitcoin blockchain. Key metrics often cited include:
o Supply Dynamics: Tracking the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term holders versus short-term speculators. An increase in long-term holding often suggests accumulation and reduced selling pressure. Metrics like "Supply Last Active 1+ Years Ago" reaching high levels can indicate strong conviction among holders.
o Network Activity: While not always a direct price predictor, sustained growth in active addresses or transaction counts can signal underlying adoption and utility growth.
o Profit/Loss Indicators: Metrics like Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) or Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) help gauge whether the market is overheated or potentially finding a bottom. A shift from capitulation (heavy losses) towards profitability can be a bullish sign.
• Technical Indicators: These are derived from price and volume data.
o Moving Averages: Crossovers of key moving averages (e.g., the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average, known as a "Golden Cross") are classic bullish signals for many traders. The positioning of price relative to these averages is also crucial.
o Momentum Oscillators: Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) measure the speed and change of price movements. Emerging from oversold conditions or showing bullish divergences can signal strengthening momentum.
• Market Sentiment Indicators: While harder to quantify, tools analyzing social media sentiment, futures market positioning (funding rates, open interest), and options market data (put/call ratios) can provide clues about the prevailing mood among traders.
The core argument presented by analysts is that a confluence of these diverse indicators, many of which have strong historical track records in predicting Bitcoin rallies, are simultaneously aligning in a bullish formation. It's not just one signal, but a pattern across multiple datasets suggesting that the groundwork for a significant upward move is being laid. This historical resonance provides a powerful argument for those anticipating a break towards previous highs.
Part 2: The Confirmed Local Bottom – Building a Foundation for Growth?
Complementing the forward-looking indicators is the assertion that Bitcoin has successfully established a "local bottom." This implies that a recent period of price decline has concluded, and a new support level has been found from which price can potentially rebound. Confirmation of a bottom is often a multi-step process:
1. Price Action: A clear cessation of the downtrend, often marked by a specific low point that holds despite retests. This might involve candlestick patterns indicating reversal (like hammers or engulfing patterns) or the formation of a sideways consolidation range after a fall.
2. Volume: Capitulation volume (a spike in selling volume near the low) followed by declining volume during consolidation, and then potentially increasing volume on upward moves, can support the idea of a bottom.
3. Indicator Confirmation: Technical indicators like the RSI moving out of oversold territory (<30) or MACD showing a bullish crossover below the zero line often accompany bottom formations.
4. Holding Key Support: The price successfully defending a significant historical support level or a key Fibonacci retracement level adds weight to the bottoming argument.
The claim that "all indicators flash bullish" in conjunction with a confirmed local bottom suggests a powerful technical setup. It implies that the selling pressure that drove the price down has exhausted itself, buyers are stepping back in at these levels, and multiple technical measures are signaling renewed upward momentum. Establishing a firm bottom is crucial; without it, any rally attempt could be short-lived. This confirmed base provides psychological reassurance to bulls and a defined level for risk management (placing stop-losses below the confirmed low). The question then shifts from "Will it stop falling?" to "Where is the price headed next?"
Part 3: The Great Crypto Decoupling – Bitcoin Forges Its Own Path
One of the most significant market structure shifts observed over the past year is the growing divergence between Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market. Historically, Bitcoin often acted as the tide lifting all crypto boats; when Bitcoin rallied, altcoins typically followed, often with even greater percentage gains (and vice-versa). However, recent data points to a stark change:
• Record Market Cap Gap: The difference in total market capitalization between Bitcoin and the entire altcoin sector has reportedly reached its largest point ever. This signifies that capital inflows are disproportionately favoring Bitcoin.
• Performance Divergence: While Bitcoin has made significant strides, reclaiming substantial portions of its previous losses and challenging key resistance levels, many altcoins have lagged considerably. Some have even continued to trend downwards relative to both the US Dollar and Bitcoin itself.
• Shift from Tandem Movement: The lockstep correlation that characterized previous cycles appears broken, or at least significantly weakened. Bitcoin is charting a course influenced more by its own specific drivers than by the general sentiment across the entire crypto asset class.
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Several factors likely contribute to this decoupling:
• Institutional Adoption & ETFs: The launch and success of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US (and similar products elsewhere) have provided a regulated, accessible channel for institutional capital to flow directly into Bitcoin. This capital is often focused solely on Bitcoin as a digital store of value or portfolio diversifier, largely ignoring the more speculative altcoin market.
• Narrative Strength: Bitcoin's core narrative as "digital gold" – a decentralized, scarce, censorship-resistant store of value – has gained traction, particularly in environments of macroeconomic uncertainty or inflation concerns. This narrative is unique to Bitcoin and doesn't necessarily extend to most altcoins, which often have different value propositions (utility tokens, DeFi platforms, etc.).
• Regulatory Clarity (Relative): While regulatory landscapes are still evolving globally, Bitcoin generally enjoys a greater degree of regulatory clarity (often classified as a commodity in key jurisdictions like the US) compared to many altcoins, which face ongoing scrutiny regarding their potential classification as securities. This perceived lower regulatory risk can make Bitcoin more attractive to cautious investors.
• Flight to Quality: During periods of market uncertainty or following negative events within the broader crypto space (like exchange collapses or protocol exploits), investors may rotate capital from riskier altcoins into the perceived safety and established network effect of Bitcoin.
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This decoupling has profound implications. For investors, it means diversification within the crypto space is becoming more complex; owning altcoins is no longer a guaranteed way to amplify Bitcoin's gains. For Bitcoin, it suggests a maturation of its asset class status, attracting capital based on its unique properties rather than just general crypto market sentiment. This potentially makes Bitcoin's price action more robust and less susceptible to negative developments in obscure corners of the altcoin market.
Part 4: Mining Difficulty Adjustment – A Breather for the Network's Backbone
The Bitcoin network's health and security rely on miners who dedicate vast computational power to validating transactions and adding new blocks to the blockchain. The "Difficulty" is a crucial network parameter that automatically adjusts roughly every two weeks (every 2016 blocks) to ensure that new blocks are found, on average, every 10 minutes, regardless of how much total mining power (hash rate) is connected to the network.
• How it Works: If blocks are being found too quickly (more hash rate online), the difficulty increases, making it harder to find the next block. If blocks are being found too slowly (hash rate has dropped), the difficulty decreases, making it easier.
• Recent Trend: The report notes that difficulty had increased in the four previous adjustments, indicating a sustained rise in the total hash rate competing on the network.
• Expected Drop: Now, on-chain data forecasts an almost 5% drop in difficulty for the upcoming adjustment. This implies that a noticeable amount of hash rate has recently come offline.
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Why might hash rate decrease, leading to a difficulty drop?
• Profitability Squeeze: Mining profitability is determined by the price of Bitcoin, the miner's electricity costs, the efficiency of their mining hardware (ASICs), and the current network difficulty. If Bitcoin's price stagnates or drops while difficulty remains high (or energy costs rise), less efficient miners or those with higher operating costs may become unprofitable and shut down their rigs.
• Hardware Cycles: Older generation ASICs become obsolete as newer, more efficient models are released. A difficulty drop might reflect a temporary lull before newer hardware is fully deployed or older hardware being permanently retired.
• External Factors: Regional energy price fluctuations, regulatory changes affecting mining operations in certain areas, or even extreme weather events impacting large mining facilities can temporarily reduce the global hash rate.
What are the implications of a difficulty drop?
• A Break for Miners: For the remaining miners, a lower difficulty means they have a slightly higher chance of finding the next block with the same amount of hash power. This can improve their profitability, potentially reducing the need for them to sell mined Bitcoin immediately to cover operational expenses. Reduced selling pressure from miners is generally considered a positive market factor.
• Network Self-Regulation: It demonstrates the robustness of Bitcoin's design – the network automatically adjusts to maintain its target block time, ensuring consistent transaction processing regardless of fluctuations in mining participation.
• Not Necessarily Bearish: While a significant drop could signal miner capitulation in a deep bear market, a moderate drop after a period of sustained increases might simply be a healthy cooldown or consolidation phase in hash rate growth, allowing the ecosystem to adjust.
This expected difficulty drop, therefore, provides a welcome respite for miners, potentially easing selling pressure and showcasing the network's adaptive capabilities.
Part 5: Technical Signals and Historical Echoes – Stochastic RSI, Taker Ratio, and the Gold Fractal
Beyond the broader indicators and market dynamics, specific technical signals and historical chart patterns are adding fuel to the bullish fire:
• Bitcoin Stochastic RSI: The Stochastic RSI is a momentum indicator that uses RSI values (rather than price) within a stochastic oscillator formula. It ranges between 0 and 100 and is used to identify overbought and oversold conditions, but often more effectively in identifying strengthening momentum. A signal suggesting "brewing bullish momentum" likely means the Stochastic RSI is rising from oversold levels or showing a bullish crossover, indicating that underlying momentum (as measured by RSI) is accelerating upwards. Such signals often precede periods of strong price appreciation.
• Taker Buy/Sell Ratio (Binance): This ratio measures the aggression of buyers versus sellers executing market orders (takers) on a specific exchange (in this case, Binance, a major hub for crypto trading). A "sharp increase" in the Taker Buy Ratio (or Buy/Sell Ratio) signifies that buyers are aggressively hitting the ask price to acquire Bitcoin, willing to pay the market price rather than waiting for their limit orders to be filled. This indicates strong immediate demand and buying pressure, often interpreted as a bullish signal suggesting conviction among buyers.
• Bitcoin Mirroring Gold's Breakout Structure: This is a fascinating observation based on fractal analysis – the idea that chart patterns can repeat themselves across different time scales and different assets. The claim is that Bitcoin's current price structure (consolidation patterns, corrections, subsequent recovery) closely resembles the structure Gold exhibited before one of its major historical breakouts. If this fractal pattern holds true, it suggests Bitcoin might be in the final stages of consolidation before a significant upward move, mirroring Gold's past trajectory. This analysis leads to the specific, albeit highly speculative, prediction of a potential new ATH occurring in Q2 2025. While historical parallels are not guarantees, they provide a compelling narrative and roadmap for traders looking for historical context.
• Sandwiched Between Support & Resistance: This describes the immediate technical battleground. Bitcoin's price is currently caught in a range defined by a significant support level below (a price floor where buying interest has previously emerged) and a major resistance level above (a price ceiling where selling pressure has previously intensified). The outcome of this battle is critical. Can the bulls, bolstered by the positive indicators and dynamics discussed, muster enough strength to break decisively above resistance? Or will the bears successfully defend that level, potentially leading to another rejection or further consolidation? This price zone represents the current line in the sand.
Part 6: Synthesis and Outlook – Weighing the Evidence for a New ATH
Synthesizing these diverse factors paints a complex but potentially bullish picture for Bitcoin:
• The Bullish Case: Multiple historically reliable indicators are signaling conditions that preceded past rallies. A local bottom appears confirmed, providing a stable base. Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from the riskier altcoin market, potentially attracting more focused institutional capital via ETFs. A looming drop in mining difficulty could ease selling pressure from miners. Specific technical indicators like the Stochastic RSI and Taker Buy/Sell Ratio point towards growing buying momentum and aggression. Furthermore, a compelling (though speculative) historical parallel with Gold's breakout structure offers a potential roadmap towards a new ATH, perhaps by Q2 2025.
• The Hurdles and Risks: Despite the bullish signals, significant resistance levels lie ahead, representing areas where sellers have previously overwhelmed buyers. Macroeconomic uncertainty (inflation, interest rates, geopolitical events) can always impact risk assets like Bitcoin. Regulatory developments, while potentially clarifying for Bitcoin, remain a source of potential volatility. The crypto market is inherently volatile, and unforeseen events ("black swans") can rapidly alter market sentiment. The Gold fractal is a historical observation, not a guarantee.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin currently stands at a fascinating juncture. The confluence of bullish indicators flagged by analysts, the apparent confirmation of a local bottom, the significant decoupling from altcoins driven partly by institutional flows, the potential easing of pressure on miners via a difficulty drop, and specific technical signals like the Stochastic RSI and Taker Buy Ratio collectively build a strong case for optimism. The comparison to Gold's historical breakout adds another layer of intrigue, offering a specific (though speculative) timeline for a potential new All-Time High.
However, optimism must be tempered with caution. Major resistance levels loom large, representing the immediate challenge for bulls. The broader macroeconomic and regulatory environments remain key variables. While the indicators suggest brewing momentum and historical patterns offer encouraging parallels, breaking through established resistance and embarking on a sustained rally towards a new ATH is never a certainty in the volatile world of cryptocurrency.
The coming weeks and months will be crucial in determining whether the bullish signals translate into decisive price action. Can the bulls overcome the resistance that currently sandwiches the price? Will the decoupling trend continue to funnel capital into Bitcoin? Will the mining landscape stabilize favorably? The answers to these questions will likely determine if the whispers of an incoming ATH, potentially mirroring Gold's path towards Q2 2025, become a roar or fade back into the market noise. The stage seems set, the indicators are aligning, but the final act is yet to be written.
Do you think I'm joking ???I might be wrong and this might never happen, but it might come true From a technical perspective!!!
Give me some energy !!
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⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Is Bitcoin Overextended? Here's My Trade Plan If BTC Retraces!Bitcoin Daily Chart Analysis 📝
🚀 Current Market Structure:
The daily BTC/USDT chart clearly shows a strong bullish trend, with price action recently making a significant upward move. The current candles are consolidating near the highs, suggesting a potential overextension after a parabolic rally. This often precedes a corrective phase, as buyers may take profits and new participants wait for a more favorable entry.
🔍 Wyckoff Perspective:
Your approach aligns with the Wyckoff Method, specifically looking for a retracement to the 50% level of the current swing. This would place the ideal entry zone around the $93,071 area, as marked on your chart. According to Wyckoff, after such a retrace, we should watch for an accumulation range—a period of sideways movement where smart money absorbs supply. The key signal to watch for is a "spring" (a false breakdown below the range), followed by a strong bullish breakout, confirming demand dominance.
🌐 Fundamental Backdrop:
Fundamentally, Bitcoin remains supported by several macro factors:
Institutional adoption continues, with ETFs and large funds increasing exposure.
The recent halving event has reduced new supply, historically a bullish catalyst.
Regulatory clarity in major markets (e.g., US, EU) is improving, reducing uncertainty. However, risks remain from potential regulatory crackdowns, macroeconomic headwinds (such as interest rate hikes), and geopolitical tensions.
💬 Sentiment & Analyst Consensus:
Market sentiment is currently optimistic, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hovering in the "Greed" zone. Many analysts are calling for a healthy correction before the next leg up, echoing your expectation of a retrace. Some prominent voices suggest that a pullback to the $92,000–$94,000 range would be constructive, allowing for reaccumulation and a more sustainable rally.
📈 Technical Triggers to Watch:
Retrace to 50% Level: Monitor for price action around $93,071–$94,593.
Accumulation Range: Look for a period of low volatility and tight range after the retrace.
Spring & Breakout: A false breakdown below the range, quickly reclaimed, followed by a strong bullish candle, would be the classic Wyckoff entry trigger.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making investment decisions.
Bitcoin's Crossroads: Golden Cross Signals, Capital Floods In
The Bitcoin narrative is rarely static. It oscillates between fervent optimism and deep skepticism, driven by a complex interplay of technical patterns, on-chain data, macroeconomic shifts, and evolving investor perceptions. Recently, several compelling signals have converged, painting a picture of a market potentially at a significant juncture. A rare "Golden Cross" technical pattern has formed, an event often associated with the start of major bull cycles. Simultaneously, on-chain data reveals a surge in "hot supply," indicating a significant influx of new capital and heightened market activity. Adding another layer, Bitcoin demonstrated surprising resilience and relative strength against traditional assets like gold and tech stocks during recent market turbulence, exhibiting an unusually low beta that hints at potential maturation.
This confluence of technical momentum, fresh capital inflow, and changing market behavior warrants a deep dive. What exactly is the Golden Cross, and what does its appearance portend for Bitcoin? How should we interpret the nearly $40 billion in "hot supply," and what risks and opportunities does this influx of potentially newer, less experienced capital present? And critically, does Bitcoin's recent outperformance and low correlation signal a fundamental shift in its role within the broader financial landscape? This article will dissect these interconnected developments, exploring their historical context, potential implications, and the inherent uncertainties that always accompany the world's leading cryptocurrency.
Decoding the Golden Cross: A Technical Harbinger?
Technical analysis (TA) is a cornerstone of trading in many markets, including cryptocurrency. It involves studying past price action and volume data to identify patterns and trends that might predict future movements. One of the most widely recognized and discussed bullish signals in TA is the "Golden Cross."
• What is a Golden Cross? A Golden Cross occurs when a shorter-term moving average (MA) of an asset's price crosses above a longer-term moving average. The most commonly watched Golden Cross involves the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing above the 200-day SMA.
o The 50-day SMA reflects the average closing price over the last 50 trading days, representing recent momentum.
o The 200-day SMA reflects the average closing price over the last 200 trading days, representing the longer-term underlying trend.
• Traditional Interpretation: When the faster-moving 50-day MA overtakes the slower 200-day MA, it suggests that recent price momentum is strengthening significantly relative to the long-term trend. Technicians interpret this as a potential confirmation that a bottom may be in, and a new, sustained uptrend could be starting. It's often seen as a lagging indicator (confirming a trend already underway) but one that can signal the potential for significant further upside. Conversely, the opposite pattern, where the 50-day MA crosses below the 200-day MA, is known as a "Death Cross" and is considered a bearish signal.
• The "Once Per Cycle" Phenomenon: The claim that this specific Golden Cross (50-day crossing 200-day) happens "once every cycle" for Bitcoin generally refers to its appearance after major bear market bottoms and preceding significant bull runs in Bitcoin's roughly four-year halving cycles. Historically, looking back at Bitcoin's chart, these crosses have indeed often preceded periods of substantial price appreciation. For example, Golden Crosses occurred in 2012, 2015, 2019, and 2020, each preceding major bull markets, albeit with varying time lags and magnitudes.
• Historical Performance and Caveats: While historically bullish for Bitcoin, the Golden Cross is not an infallible predictor.
o Lagging Nature: By the time the cross occurs, a significant portion of the initial rally off the bottom may have already happened.
o False Signals: Markets can experience "whipsaws," where a Golden Cross forms briefly only to reverse into a Death Cross shortly after, trapping overly eager bulls. This was seen briefly in some shorter timeframes or even on the daily chart during choppy periods in Bitcoin's history.
o Context Matters: The broader market environment, macroeconomic factors, and fundamental developments play crucial roles. A Golden Cross during a period of intense regulatory crackdown or global recession might not have the same impact as one occurring during quantitative easing and growing institutional interest.
o Confirmation Needed: Traders often look for confirmation signals after a Golden Cross, such as sustained price action above the moving averages, increasing volume, or bullish follow-through patterns.
What to Expect from the Golden Cross?
The formation of a Golden Cross on Bitcoin's daily chart is undeniably a positive technical development that captures market attention. It suggests underlying strength and improving medium-term momentum. Historically, it has often marked the transition from a bear market recovery phase to a more sustained uptrend.
However, expectations should be tempered with caution. It's a signal, not a guarantee. It indicates potential but requires confirmation through continued price strength and favorable market conditions. Relying solely on this pattern for investment decisions is risky. It should be considered alongside other factors – on-chain data, fundamental developments, and macroeconomic context – to form a more complete picture. The most reasonable expectation is that the Golden Cross increases the probability of further upside but doesn't eliminate the possibility of consolidation, pullbacks, or even failure of the nascent uptrend.
The Heat is On: Understanding the Surge in 'Hot Supply'
While technical analysis looks at price charts, on-chain analysis delves into the activity happening directly on the Bitcoin blockchain, providing insights into investor behavior and capital flows. A key metric highlighted recently is the rise of "Bitcoin hot supply."
• What is 'Hot Supply'? "Hot Supply" typically refers to Bitcoin that has been moved on the blockchain relatively recently, often within the last few months (definitions can vary slightly between analytics platforms, e.g., coins moved within the last 1-3 months or sometimes up to 6 months). These coins are considered "hot" because they are more likely to be involved in active trading or spending, as opposed to "cold" supply held in long-term storage (often associated with HODlers). It represents the portion of the Bitcoin supply that is more liquid and actively circulating.
• Nearing $40 Billion: The fact that this hot supply is nearing a value of $40 billion is significant. It indicates a substantial amount of Bitcoin changing hands and reflects a "surge in capital turnover," as described in the analysis. This suggests heightened market activity, increased liquidity, and, crucially, the entry of new participants or the reactivation of dormant capital.
• New Investors Flooding In (at High Prices?): The analysis explicitly links this surge to new investors and speculators taking an interest, likely attracted by Bitcoin's recent price recovery and multi-month highs. The mention of "$95K" (even if potentially a typo or hypothetical peak target in the source analysis) symbolizes the risk that many of these new entrants might have acquired Bitcoin at relatively elevated prices compared to the cycle lows. This creates a cohort of investors with a higher cost basis.
• Implications of High Hot Supply:
o Increased Liquidity: More coins moving means more potential buyers and sellers, which can facilitate smoother price discovery and larger trades.
o Fuel for Rallies: An influx of new capital provides buying pressure that can sustain upward price momentum. Speculative interest often feeds on itself in bull markets.
o Increased Volatility: Coins held by newer entrants or short-term speculators are often considered "weaker hands." These holders may be more susceptible to panic selling during price dips or quick profit-taking during rallies, potentially leading to sharper price swings in both directions.
o Potential Overhead Supply: If the price stalls or reverses, the large volume of coins acquired at recent highs ( SGX:40B worth moved recently) represents potential selling pressure as these holders seek to break even or cut losses.
Interpreting the Influx:
The surge in hot supply is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it confirms growing interest and provides the necessary capital flow to potentially validate the bullish signal from the Golden Cross. New demand is essential for sustained price increases. On the other hand, it introduces a layer of fragility. The market's ability to absorb potential selling from these newer, higher-cost-basis holders during inevitable corrections will be a key test of the underlying strength of the current trend. Monitoring whether this "hot supply" gradually cools down (moves into longer-term holding) or remains elevated will be crucial in the coming months.
Bitcoin's Relative Strength: Outshining Gold and Tech Amid Turmoil
Beyond technicals and on-chain flows, Bitcoin's performance relative to traditional assets, especially during periods of market stress, offers valuable insights into its evolving perception. The observation that Bitcoin outperformed both gold (a traditional safe-haven) and tech stocks (risk-on assets) in April, particularly amidst "tariff turmoil" or other geopolitical/economic uncertainties, is noteworthy.
• Challenging Correlations: Historically, Bitcoin often traded with a high correlation to risk assets like tech stocks, particularly during market downturns. Investors tended to sell Bitcoin alongside equities during risk-off periods. Gold, conversely, often acts as a safe haven, rallying during uncertainty. Bitcoin outperforming both simultaneously suggests a potential breakdown in these typical correlations, at least temporarily.
• Why the Outperformance? Several factors could contribute:
o Unique Drivers: Bitcoin's price is influenced by factors unique to its ecosystem, such as halving cycles, adoption news, regulatory developments, and flows into new instruments like spot ETFs. These can sometimes override broader market trends.
o Inflation Hedge Narrative: Persistent inflation concerns may lead some investors to seek alternatives to fiat currency, benefiting both gold and Bitcoin, but perhaps Bitcoin more so due to its perceived higher growth potential.
o Safe-Haven Experimentation: While gold remains the established safe haven, some investors might be tentatively allocating a small portion to Bitcoin as a potential alternative store of value or hedge against systemic risk, especially if they perceive traditional systems as vulnerable.
o Decoupling Narrative: Some proponents argue that Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from traditional markets as it matures and establishes itself as a distinct asset class. The recent performance could be seen as evidence supporting this view.
o Coincidence/Timing: It's also possible that the timing was coincidental, with Bitcoin-specific catalysts driving its price higher while unrelated factors weighed on gold and tech stocks during that specific period.
Significance of Relative Strength:
Demonstrating strength during periods when traditional assets are struggling enhances Bitcoin's appeal. It challenges the simplistic "risk-on only" label and suggests it might offer diversification benefits. If this pattern persists over longer periods and across different market stressors, it could significantly bolster the case for Bitcoin's inclusion in traditional investment portfolios.
Maturation Signal? The Low Beta Phenomenon
Closely related to relative strength is the concept of beta. Beta measures the volatility or systematic risk of an asset compared to the overall market (often represented by an index like the S&P 500).
• Beta Explained:
o A beta of 1 indicates the asset's price tends to move with the market.
o A beta greater than 1 indicates the asset is more volatile than the market.
o A beta less than 1 indicates the asset is less volatile than the market.
o A beta of 0 suggests no correlation.
• Bitcoin's Historically High Beta: Traditionally, Bitcoin has exhibited a high beta, especially relative to equity markets. It was often seen as a high-volatility asset that amplified broader market moves, particularly to the downside during risk-off events.
• Recent Low Beta Observation: The finding that Bitcoin displayed an "unusually low beta during recent market stress" is significant. It implies that its price movements were less correlated with, and potentially less volatile than, the broader market during that period of turbulence.
• Implications of Low Beta:
o Maturation Narrative: A lower, less correlated beta is often characteristic of more mature assets or distinct asset classes. It suggests investors might be viewing Bitcoin with a longer-term perspective, less prone to knee-jerk selling based on short-term fluctuations in other markets.
o Diversification Potential: Assets with low correlation to traditional portfolios (like stocks and bonds) are valuable for diversification, as they can potentially reduce overall portfolio volatility. A sustained low beta would strengthen Bitcoin's diversification credentials.
o Shift in Holder Base?: It could indicate a shift towards more institutional and long-term holders who are less reactive to daily market noise compared to purely retail speculators.
o Store of Value Aspirations: While still highly volatile compared to traditional stores of value like gold, a decreasing beta could be interpreted as a tentative step towards fulfilling some store-of-value properties, particularly if it holds value better than risk assets during downturns.
Is it Sustainable?
While the recent low beta is an encouraging sign for Bitcoin bulls and proponents of its maturation narrative, it's crucial to question its sustainability. Was it a temporary anomaly driven by specific market conditions in April, or does it represent a durable shift? Bitcoin's correlation and beta have fluctuated throughout its history. Renewed market panic, significant regulatory shocks, or major shifts in macroeconomic policy could potentially cause correlations to snap back. Continued observation across different market environments is needed to determine if this low beta is a new regime or a fleeting characteristic.
Synthesizing the Signals: A Complex Tapestry
Bringing these threads together – the Golden Cross, the surge in hot supply, relative outperformance, and low beta – reveals a complex and somewhat contradictory picture:
1. Technical Momentum Meets New Money: The Golden Cross provides a technically bullish backdrop, potentially encouraging more participants. The SGX:40B in hot supply confirms that new capital is entering, providing the fuel that could validate the technical signal.
2. Speculation vs. Maturation: The influx of hot supply points towards increased speculation and potentially "weaker hands." Yet, the low beta and relative outperformance during stress hint at underlying strength and potential maturation, suggesting a core base of holders is becoming less reactive. This highlights the heterogeneous nature of the Bitcoin market, with different investor cohorts exhibiting different behaviors simultaneously.
3. Opportunity and Risk: The convergence creates both opportunity and risk. The opportunity lies in the potential for the Golden Cross and new capital to ignite a sustained rally, further bolstered if Bitcoin continues to act as a diversifier (low beta). The risk lies in the potential fragility introduced by the high volume of recent entrants (hot supply) who might capitulate during dips, potentially invalidating the Golden Cross and reversing the low beta trend.
The current environment suggests Bitcoin is navigating a transition. The technicals point upwards, fresh capital is flowing in, and its behavior relative to traditional markets is showing intriguing signs of change. However, the presence of significant "hot" money serves as a reminder that volatility and sharp corrections remain distinct possibilities.
Overarching Risks and Necessary Caveats
Despite the positive signals, numerous risks persist:
• Technical Analysis is Not Predictive: The Golden Cross is a historical pattern, not a crystal ball. It can fail.
• 'Hot Supply' Risk: A large cohort of investors with a high cost basis can become a source of significant selling pressure if sentiment shifts.
• Macroeconomic Headwinds: Persistent inflation, rising interest rates (globally), geopolitical conflicts, or a global recession could dampen appetite for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
• Regulatory Uncertainty: While spot ETFs marked progress, the global regulatory landscape for crypto remains fragmented and uncertain. Unexpected crackdowns remain a threat.
• Correlation Risk: The low beta and decoupling narrative could prove temporary. Bitcoin could easily recouple with risk assets during a broader market panic.
Conclusion: Bitcoin at an Inflection Point?
Bitcoin currently stands at a fascinating crossroads, illuminated by a confluence of compelling, albeit sometimes conflicting, signals. The rare Golden Cross offers a technically bullish omen, suggesting underlying momentum is shifting favorably for a potential long-term uptrend, echoing patterns seen in previous cycles. This technical optimism is fueled by tangible evidence of renewed interest, with nearly $40 billion in "hot supply" indicating a significant surge in capital turnover and the arrival of fresh speculative and investment capital.
Simultaneously, Bitcoin's recent behavior exhibits intriguing signs of potential maturation. Its ability to outperform traditional safe havens like gold and risk assets like tech stocks during periods of market stress, coupled with an unusually low beta, challenges its historical "risk-on only" profile. This suggests a growing base of investors may be viewing it through a longer-term lens, potentially as a unique store of value or a portfolio diversifier, less swayed by short-term market noise.
However, this complex picture demands caution. The very influx of capital that fuels optimism also introduces fragility, as newer entrants with higher cost bases may be quicker to sell during downturns. The Golden Cross, while historically significant, remains a lagging indicator with no guarantee of future success. And the low beta, while encouraging, could prove ephemeral in the face of severe macroeconomic shocks or shifts in market sentiment.
Ultimately, Bitcoin's trajectory towards 2030 and beyond will depend on its ability to navigate these dynamics. Can it convert the current technical momentum and capital influx into a sustainable trend? Will its utility and adoption grow sufficiently to solidify its role beyond pure speculation? Will it continue to carve out a unique space in the financial ecosystem, proving its resilience and diversification benefits across various market conditions? The current signals suggest the potential is there, but the path forward remains intrinsically linked to broader economic forces, regulatory evolution, and the ever-unpredictable psychology of the market. Bitcoin is flashing signs of both renewed vigor and evolving character, making the coming months and years critical in defining its future role.
Bitcoin's 215-Day Pattern: Another Breakout Loading?The Bitcoin chart shows a repeating pattern of consolidation lasting 215 days before each major upward breakout. This cycle has occurred multiple times over the past two years, with each accumulation zone followed by a strong bullish rally.
Currently, Bitcoin is once again emerging from a similar 215-day consolidation phase, suggesting the potential for another significant move to the upside if the pattern holds. If history repeats, we could see a target around $150K.
BINANCE:BTCUSDT CRYPTOCAP:BTC
BTC Correction Likely Before ATHBTCUSDT technical analysis update
BTC price could drop to the GETTEX:89K –$91K range before moving higher. There's a CME futures gap at $90.7K, which may act like a magnet. BTC has strong support around $90K and may see a small pullback before reaching a new all-time high.
Bitcoin and altcoins are entering a correctionWe expect Bitcoin to reach around 80-83k.
Closer to the time, we’ll monitor and look for entry points in altcoins 🤔.
During this rapid rise, Bitcoin was actively sold on the Bitfinex exchange, +1 for a correction:
BTCUSDT: Bounce Incoming?BTCUSDT Technical analysis update
-March 2024 resistance is now expected to act as a strong support level.
-The price has touched the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a potential reversal from this zone.
-The 200 EMA on the 2-day chart is positioned as a strong dynamic support, reinforcing the bullish case.
We can expect a bounce from the $72-75k level.
BITCOIN Ready for PUMP or what ?Currently, COINBASE:BTCUSD is forming an ascending triangle, indicating a potential price increase. It is anticipated that the price could rise, aligning with the projected price movement (AB=CD).
However, it is crucial to wait for the triangle to break before taking any action.
Give me some energy !!
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✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Bitcoin correction. Waiting for 70k-76kBitcoin correction. Waiting for 70k-76k
The previous idea suggested Bitcoin would reach $95,000-$100,000 before entering a 1-2 year bear phase alongside the U.S. stock market decline.
Bitfinex:
However, based on Coinbase orders in the $70,000-$76,000 range and recent BTC sell-offs on Bitfinex over the past three days, it looks like this correction is being dragged out to trigger more liquidations.
This crypto correction might also align with an SP500 drop. Waiting for lower levels to find good entry points.
Coinbase orders:
BTC/USDC Liquidation Heatmap
BTC Retrace or Rally? Bitcoin’s Liquidity Hunt & Next Move.Bitcoin BTC Analysis & Trade Idea
🚦 Market Context & Price Action
Bitcoin has experienced a sharp rally, pushing into previous weekly and daily highs. This area is a classic liquidity pool, where buy stops from breakout traders and late longs are likely accumulating. The current price action is overextended, suggesting that the market may be primed for a retracement as smart money seeks to capture liquidity before the next directional move.
💧 Liquidity Pools & Wyckoff Concepts
According to Wyckoff methodology, this phase resembles a "Buying Climax" (BC) where price surges into resistance, often followed by an "Automatic Reaction" (AR) and a potential "Secondary Test" (ST). The current rally into old highs is likely triggering buy stops, providing institutional players with ample liquidity to offload positions or engineer a shakeout.
🟢 Wyckoff Schematic:
Buying Climax (BC) at current highs
Anticipated Automatic Reaction (AR) as price retraces
Look for a range to develop (potential Accumulation phase) near the 50% Fibonacci retracement
📉 Fibonacci Retracement & Trade Setup
You’re eyeing the 50% retracement of the previous price range as a key level. This aligns with both technical and Wyckoff logic, as it’s a common area for price to find support after a liquidity grab.
🟢 Trade Plan:
Wait for a retrace to the 50% Fibonacci level
Observe for a range or consolidation (signs of absorption/accumulation)
Look for a bullish break of market structure (BOS) as confirmation
Enter long on confirmation, with stops below the range low
🌐 Fundamentals & Market Sentiment
Currently, Bitcoin sentiment is mixed but leaning bullish due to recent ETF inflows, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic uncertainty (e.g., inflation, rate cut expectations). However, funding rates are elevated, and open interest is high, indicating potential for a shakeout as overleveraged longs are vulnerable.
🟢 Key Fundamentals:
ETF inflows and institutional interest remain strong
Macro uncertainty (Fed policy, inflation) supports long-term bullishness
Short-term: Overheated sentiment and high leverage could trigger a corrective move
🧠 Sentiment & Risk Management
Social media and crypto news outlets are buzzing with bullish narratives, but this euphoria often precedes a correction. Be patient and disciplined—wait for the retrace and confirmation before entering.
🟢 Risk Management:
Only enter after clear accumulation and bullish BOS
Use tight stops below the range
Consider scaling in if the range develops with clear absorption
📈 Trade Idea Summary
Wait for a retrace to the 50% Fibonacci level of the recent rally
Look for Wyckoff-style accumulation and a bullish break of structure
Enter long on confirmation, targeting new highs or the top of the previous range
Manage risk with stops below the accumulation range
Not financial advice!
BTC is trading within the equilibrium zone and..Bitcoin is now trading within my equilibrium zone. This will be one to watch for clues about the broader market, as it's currently leading the way.
Good luck, and always use a stop-loss!
Bitcoin Pullback or Opportunity📊 Bitcoin Analysis – Pullback or Opportunity?
CRYPTOCAP:BTC hit strong resistance at 94,000 $ failed to push higher, entering a correction phase 📉. Key support zones now lie at 91,200 $ 87,500 $ , both of which have shown solid reactions in the past 🛡️. If price holds one of these levels, the next target could be around 98,500 $based on the previous move’s momentum 🚀.
📌 Price is still holding above the 200 MA, suggesting bullish momentum is alive but needs further confirmation ✅.
👇 What’s your take on the next move?
🔁 Save this if you're watching the next targets
📩 Share with a friend who's trading BTC right now
Bitcoin (BTC) $95K Target? ETF Inflows & Supply Shock Key Signal
Bitcoin Flashes Bullish Signals: Record ETF Flows and Supply Shock Fuel $95K Target Hopes
Bitcoin, the original cryptocurrency, is demonstrating renewed vigor, capturing investor attention with a confluence of bullish indicators. After a period of consolidation and sideways movement following its all-time high earlier this year, recent data suggests underlying strength is building. Significant inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, a tightening supply on exchanges, strong relative performance against traditional markets, and key technical levels being tested are painting a picture that has analysts eyeing the next major psychological and technical hurdle: $95,000.
ETF Demand Roars Back: A Sign of Renewed Institutional Appetite
One of the most significant developments fueling recent optimism is the resurgence of demand for U.S.-based spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Launched in January 2024, these products marked a watershed moment, providing traditional investors with regulated and accessible exposure to Bitcoin. After an initial explosive launch, inflows moderated. However, recent weeks have seen a dramatic turnaround.
Reports indicate that these ETFs recently experienced their largest single-day net inflows since their early days in January, signaling a powerful return of institutional and potentially broader retail interest. This influx of capital into regulated vehicles is crucial. It represents sticky, long-term demand rather than just short-term speculative trading. Each dollar flowing into these ETFs effectively removes Bitcoin from the readily available market supply, contributing to a potential supply squeeze.
This sustained demand has also propelled Bitcoin's overall market capitalization significantly. While direct comparisons fluctuate daily and depend on methodology (e.g., including gold, different equity classes), Bitcoin's market cap has grown to rival that of major global corporations and even some traditional asset classes. Its ascent up the ranks of the world's largest assets underscores its growing acceptance and integration into the broader financial landscape. While claiming a specific rank like "5th largest" can be debated based on what's included, there's no denying Bitcoin is now a multi-trillion dollar asset class demanding attention.
The Supply Squeeze: Coins Vanish from Exchanges
Complementing the demand surge is a notable trend on the supply side: Bitcoin reserves held on cryptocurrency exchanges are dwindling rapidly. Data reveals that the amount of BTC available for immediate sale on major trading platforms has plummeted to levels not seen since November 2018. This marks a multi-year low, indicating a strong preference among holders to move their coins into self-custody or long-term storage solutions, rather than keeping them poised for sale.
What's driving this exodus from exchanges? Analysts point to several factors, including the aforementioned ETF accumulation, where authorized participants acquire Bitcoin on the open market to meet ETF share creation demand. Furthermore, there's growing anecdotal and on-chain evidence suggesting accumulation by long-term holders ("HODLers") and potentially public companies adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. While large-scale corporate buying sprees like MicroStrategy's haven't been widely replicated across the board, the cumulative effect of sustained institutional buying (via ETFs) and dedicated HODLers consistently pulling supply off exchanges creates a powerful dynamic.
Lower exchange reserves typically correlate with reduced selling pressure. When less Bitcoin is readily available to be sold, even moderate increases in demand can have an outsized impact on price. This scarcity factor is a core tenet of Bitcoin's value proposition, underpinned by its fixed supply cap of 21 million coins, and the current trend highlights this dynamic in action.
Relative Strength: The "Cleanest Shirt in the Dirty Laundry"
Bitcoin's recent performance also stands out when compared to traditional financial markets. Over the past 30 days (as per the provided context), Bitcoin has posted significant gains (e.g., +7.68%), while major equity indices like the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq have experienced notable pullbacks (e.g., -6.79% and -8.14%, respectively).
This divergence has led some commentators to describe Bitcoin as the "cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry pile." In times of macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical tension, or wavering confidence in traditional financial systems, Bitcoin can attract capital seeking alternatives or hedges. While its correlation with risk assets like tech stocks has often been high, periods of decoupling, like the one observed recently, suggest investors may increasingly view Bitcoin through a different lens – perhaps as a non-sovereign store of value or a bet on future technological disruption, rather than just another high-beta risk asset. This relative outperformance can attract momentum traders and further bolster positive sentiment.
Technical Hurdles: The Road to $95K
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin's price action is generating significant discussion. One key metric analysts watch is the "realized price," particularly for short-term holders (investors who acquired BTC relatively recently). When the market price surpasses the average acquisition cost of these recent buyers, it can signal a shift in market psychology. Those who bought recently are now in profit, potentially reducing sell pressure and encouraging further buying. Bitcoin recently surpassed this level, leading to speculation about whether this marks the beginning of a sustained rally or potentially sets up a "double top" scenario – a bearish pattern where an asset fails twice to break above a certain resistance level.
Analysts are closely watching specific price levels. There appears to be a consensus around a key resistance zone that, if decisively reclaimed and held, could signal that "all bets are off" for the bears, potentially opening the door for a significant upward move. Conversely, failure to break through these levels, or a strong rejection from them, could lead to a pullback, validating the warnings from more cautious analysts.
The $95,000 mark looms large as the next major psychological and potential technical resistance area should the current momentum continue and key lower resistance levels be overcome. Reaching this target would likely require a confluence of the factors already discussed: continued strong ETF inflows, further depletion of exchange supply, supportive macroeconomic conditions (or continued relative strength despite macro headwinds), and a decisive break through established technical resistance zones.
What Triggers the Breakout?
Achieving a breakout towards $95,000 isn't guaranteed and likely requires several catalysts:
1. Sustained ETF Demand: Continued, consistent net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are paramount to absorb supply and signal ongoing institutional conviction.
2. Supply Shock Intensification: If exchange reserves continue to fall sharply, the scarcity narrative strengthens, potentially triggering FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) buying.
3. Macroeconomic Shifts: A dovish pivot from central banks, renewed inflation fears driving demand for hard assets, or further instability in traditional markets could push more capital towards Bitcoin.
4. Technical Confirmation: A convincing break and hold above currently watched resistance levels would give technical traders confidence and potentially trigger algorithmic buying.
5. Positive Regulatory Developments: While the ETFs were a major step, further regulatory clarity or positive developments globally could reduce perceived risk.
Conclusion: Optimism Tempered with Caution
The current Bitcoin landscape presents a compelling bullish case. Resurgent ETF demand, dwindling exchange supply creating a scarcity effect, and strong relative performance against traditional assets paint an optimistic picture. Technical indicators, such as surpassing the realized price of recent buyers, add fuel to the fire, bringing targets like $95,000 into the conversation.
However, caution remains warranted. Bitcoin is notoriously volatile, and technical resistance levels often prove formidable. The risk of a "double top" or rejection at key levels is real, and regulatory headwinds or negative macroeconomic shifts could quickly alter sentiment. While the confluence of positive factors is undeniable and the path towards $95,000 seems plausible given the current dynamics, investors will be keenly watching whether ETF flows remain strong, supply continues to tighten, and crucial technical levels can be decisively overcome. The interplay between institutional adoption, HODLer conviction, and market technicals will ultimately determine if Bitcoin can conquer its next major milestone.
BTC-----Sell around 92600 area, target 91800-91500 areaTechnical analysis of BTC contract on April 24: Today, the large-cycle daily level closed with a small positive line yesterday, the K-line pattern continued to rise, the price was at a high level, and the attached indicator was running in a golden cross. The general trend is still rising, but after yesterday's price surged, it did not continue this morning but began to retreat under pressure. This is a correction. The four-hour chart K-line continued to be negative, and the price was near the moving average pressure level. In this way, the decline should be seen first during the day. The short-cycle hourly chart started from yesterday's European session. The price continued to fluctuate at a high level. The price began to retreat under pressure in Asian time. The current K-line pattern is a single positive line with a continuous negative line, and the attached indicator is running in a dead cross, and the strength of the four-hour chart has not yet come out.
Today's BTC short-term contract trading strategy: sell directly at the current price of 92600, stop loss in the 93100 area, and target the 91800-91500 area;
WARNING: Something feels off...🚨 Something feels off... While CRYPTOCAP:BTC looks bullish on the surface, this pump shows signs of heavy manipulation:
🔸 Michael Saylor just bought $500M in Bitcoin.
🔸 The purchase was made during Easter weekend, when institutions were closed.
🔸 Today is still a holiday in the UK, and yet the pump occurred during Asian hours — highly unusual.
🔸 Meanwhile, the SPX500 is plunging, while CRYPTOCAP:BTC is rising — a rare decoupling.
🔸 Over SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:2B in leveraged longs are sitting between GETTEX:82K –$85K, vulnerable to liquidation.
📉 This could be a classic FOMO trap — pushing price high on low volume to lure in retail before a long squeeze.
Yes, CRYPTOCAP:BTC may be gearing for another leg up…
But an all-time high this week? Highly unlikely.
⚠️ Stay cautious. The confidence is getting excessive.
DYOR – Do your own research.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoWarning #LongSqueeze #MarketManipulation #CryptoNews #MichaelSaylor #Altcoins #DYOR
Do you think I'm joking ???Chart is speaking itself...
Give me some energy !!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
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✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Bitcoin bull run ends in 6 months?The above chart presents a macro view of Bitcoin’s monthly price action, showcasing the historical pattern of bull and bear market cycles. Each green box highlights a bull run lasting approximately 35 months (or 1,066 days), a consistent duration seen in the previous two cycles from 2015–2018 and 2019–2022. The current cycle, which began in late 2022 or early 2023, is now entering its final phase, suggesting that if the pattern holds, the BTC bull run may have around 5–6 months remaining before a potential peak.
The price action continues to mirror previous cycles, indicating that history may once again be repeating itself. If this cyclical behavior continues, traders and investors should consider the possibility of a cycle top approaching and plan accordingly,.
$BTC: We Are in a Bear Market Until Proven Otherwise🚨 CRYPTOCAP:BTC : We Are in a Bear Market Until Proven Otherwise 🚨
📌 Follow-up to my December 2024 post:
🔗
Despite record-breaking bullish news, Bitcoin is not at an all-time high. Why? Because we’re still in a bear market—until the charts say otherwise.
✅ Bullish Factors:
Michael Saylor continues buying billions
President Trump & family pushing crypto/meme coins
Rumors: Fed buying CRYPTOCAP:BTC with gold?
Trump pinned the Bitcoin white paper at the White House
U.S. banks fully onboard with crypto
ETFs accumulating CRYPTOCAP:BTC
National crypto reserve announced
❌ Bearish Signals:
Fear & Greed Index in "extreme fear" for 30+ days
Price is below the EMA50 on weekly
Monthly MACD nearing bearish crossover
Trading volume decreasing
Crypto search interest at multi-year lows
Retails not buying — this is all institutions
Powell confirmed we're in a recession
Desperate whales calling for $5M–$9M BTC to bait retail
🧭 Monthly chart check the MACD:
🔗
⚠️ Key Insight:
Every cycle, people confuse a relief rally for a new bull run. This isn't new.
A relief rally = short-term price recovery in a bear market.
(AKA a dead cat bounce or sucker rally)
📊 Past relief rallies (check the chart):
+45% (Feb 2022)
+32% (June 2022)
Current one: only +16% — still within bear territory.
📉 Price could hit $91k and still drop lower while staying in an ongoing bear Market..
🧨 Bear Market Target: GETTEX:25K – FWB:27K
📈 Invalidation? Only if we close above $101K
Don’t trade your emotions. Trade the charts. They never lie.
#Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #BTC #BearMarket #CryptoAnalysis #SPX500 #CryptoTrading #Recession2025 #BTCPrice #CryptoCrash #CryptoNews #MichaelSaylor #TrumpCrypto #BTCBearMarket
Just In: Bitcoin ($BTC) Reclaims $90,000 The world's renown digital asset Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) surged nearly 4% today to reclaim the $90k resistant zone, amidst breaking out of a bullish symmetrical triangle pattern enroute to $100k.
Bitcoin for almost 1 month now has been swinging within the $80k price range, since losing it's $100k resistant in the month of February, 2025 but with increasing momentum a move to the $100k resistant doesn't seem far fetch because CRYPTOCAP:BTC has already broken the ceiling of the symmetrical triangle.
With the 4-hours RSI at 79, we may experience a respite before the major leap to $100k price point. Notable firms like Micro strategy and Michael Saylor the CEO were integral in this price movement.
The company purchased 6,556 CRYPTOCAP:BTC for ~$555.8 million at ~$84,785 per bitcoin and has achieved CRYPTOCAP:BTC Yield of 12.1% YTD 2025. As of 4/20/2025, Micro strategy holds 538,200 CRYPTOCAP:BTC acquired for ~$36.47 billion at ~$67,766 per bitcoin.
Notably, financial bodies like Standard Chartered Bank says Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) could reach a new all-time high due to concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence.
As of the time of writing, CRYPTOCAP:BTC is up 3.70% currently trading at $90,715 per CRYPTOCAP:BTC setting the coast for $100k resistant.
However, on bearish tone, should CRYPTOCAP:BTC fail to pull up that stunt, a price correction might send CRYPTOCAP:BTC back to FWB:83K support.
$BTC: Last 2 months pump before the bear market starts.On the chart, you can clearly see the similarities between the last cycle and the current one.
First, this cycle is already longer, so I don’t expect another top in 2026, as some are suggesting.
Based on my analysis, we are currently in the equivalent stage of the last cycle where two strong monthly candles appeared before the market dropped into a bear phase.
Why is this happening?
We are resetting the weekly MACD — it's at the bottom and needs to push into overbought territory before it can turn down alongside the monthly MACD.
As shown in the chart, the monthly MACD is close to turning bearish. If the weekly MACD also flips bearish, that could mark the end of the bull market.
Additionally, volume is dropping, and the RSI supports this scenario. It looks like we’re setting up for one last pump, just like last time — likely followed by a rejection in 2 months.
📊 Check the chart — I’ve laid it out as clearly as possible.
💬 If you agree or disagree, let’s discuss in the comments!
🧠 DYOR — Do Your Own Research!
#Bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis #MACD #RSI #CryptoCycle #BullMarket #BearMarket #BTC #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #DYOR #Altcoins #MarketUpdate #CryptoCommunity #Cryptocurrency
