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Btcusdlong

BTC Swing Long After 85% Bear MarketBTC Bear Markets typically will take us down -85% before the start of the next cycle. We aren't quite there yet, but we would be if we reached the macro GP pulled from the previous bear market low to our current ATH. It also coincides with the last down candle/order block that broke bearish structure and caused the last macro impulsive move/bull run. This idea has us dropping into the depths for a real capitulation, shaking out all of the weak hands and making everyone lose hope before finally putting in a bottom right before the BTC halving. We should see a real bottom in December of 2023 if this is the case.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by DigiLex_LLC
Bitcoin on the rise. Where to sell?Hi everyone. Last 3 weeks we've seen incredible strength from bulls. There are no doubts that bulls are in control. There were not any signeficent pullbacks during this pump. Many traders stayed on the sideline waiting for 10k. However, it looks like everyone already forgot that BTC printed for the first time ever a Yearly bearish engulfing candle. On crypto twitter you can see many analysts saying that Bitcoin has started a new Bull Market and it will go over 100k . We believe that in the next few days Bitcoin will not give a chance to jump on the train for those that didn't buy at lower prices, but as we had a Yearly Bearish engulfing candle for the first time ever, it's doubtful that it will be left without any impact on the market. It's probable that reaching new ATH will take way longer than everyone thinks. There's a strong resistance around 28600$ - 30000$. Moreover, the SuperGuppy indicator most likely will curve to the upside in the next few weeks and the upper lines of the SuperGuppy will be around 29k-30k which corrresponds with the price resistance therefore this is where we see a potential exit point for bulls and entry for bears. What do you think? Do you agree? Feel free to share your opinion in the comment section.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by vf_investment
22
Retesting Major Support, Potential Upswing to 40KBitcoin (BTC) seems to be presenting an interesting scenario. It's hovering near a key support zone and could provide a lucrative trading opportunity if certain conditions play out. However, this idea requires thorough analysis and is not to be taken as financial advice. Remember, every investment carries inherent risks. Idea: Bitcoin is currently trying to touch the significant support area between 25200 - 24400. This area is not only a substantial horizontal support level but also coincides with the dip of the upward trend that began from the 16K level. This combination of horizontal support and trendline support adds a layer of confluence to this zone and makes it a crucial area to watch. Should Bitcoin hold this support zone, we can expect the bullish momentum to pick up. It is likely that BTC could then begin a new upward move, potentially targeting the 35K - 40K area. This would represent a significant price increase and would restore much of the value lost during the recent correction. However, a break below the support area could invalidate this scenario, which is why it's essential to have a risk management strategy in place. Traders should keep a close eye on how BTC interacts with this support zone. A strong bounce could serve as a potential entry signal for a long position, while a break below could suggest further downside. This post is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Please do your own research before making any investment decisions. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk and may result in a loss of your capital.
Long
by sahbil
BTC/USD - LONG SCENARIOS - ANALYSIS - DThe "BTC/USD" is in a downtrend since Nov – 2021, and it is obvious that we can expect a trend reversal if necessary. -> The coupling of traditional markets to BTC is very high because of institutional investors (example: S&P500 falls = BTC falls). -> I will analyze in more detail in today's post at which key areas we can expect resistance at a LONG. -> For this, we will look at the "BTC/USD" from the daily view and integrate elements of the daily, weekly and monthly charts. TABLE OF CONTENTS - 1st part = EXPLANATION - used indicators + levels - 2nd part = SCENARIOS - Pro + Con breakdown - 3rd part = CONCLUSION FIRST PART 1. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT | For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the move, which started in - Sep/2022 - and ended in - Sep/2022 -. -> 0.618 FIB = 21,013.91 USD | Pending processing -> 0.65 FIB = 21,163.44 USD | Pending processing -> 0.75 FIB = 21,630.75 USD | Pending processing -> 0.786 FIB = 21,798.97 USD | Pending processing -> 0.88 FIB = 22,238.24 USD | Pending processing -> 1.618 FIB = 25,686.93 USD | Pending processing > As "dotted" lines - drawn in the chart. 2. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT | For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement, which started in - Aug/2022 - and ended in - Sep/2022 -. -> 0.618 FIB = 22,504.72 USD | Pending processing -> 0.65 FIB = 22,731.45 USD | Pending processing -> 0.75 FIB = 23,439.99 USD | Pending processing -> 0.786 FIB = 23,695.06 USD | Pending processing -> 0.88 FIB = 24,361.08 USD | Pending processing -> 1.618 FIB = 29,590.06 USD | Pending processing > As "dashed" lines - drawn in the chart. 3. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT | For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement, which started in - May/2022 - and ended in - June/2022 -. -> 0.328 FIB = 22,468.86 USD | Pending processing -> 0.618 FIB = 26,754.19 USD | Pending processing -> 0.65 FIB = 27,227.05 USD | Pending processing -> 0.75 FIB = 28,704.75 USD | Pending processing -> 0.786 FIB = 29,326.72 USD | Pending processing -> 0.88 FIB = 30,625.76 USD | Pending processing > As "solid" lines - drawn in the chart. 4. | DEMAND ZONES The demand zones formed at the beginning of the upward movement, thus they were created and in - June-Oct/2020. -> WEEK ZONE | 1 | = 29,282.36 – 32,399.00 USD | Pending processing -> DAYS ZONE | 1 | = 21,538.51 – 22,799.00 USD | Pending processing -> TAGES ZONE | 2 | = 23,671.22 – 25,211.32 USD | Pending processing -> DAY ZONE | 3 | = 29,944.10 - 32,399.00USD | Pending processing -> 4 HOURS ZONE | 1 | = 22,182.93- 22,794.61USD | Pending processing -> 4 HOURS ZONE | 2 | = 23,111,.04- 23,600.00USD | Pending processing > As "GREY" areas - drawn in the chart. 5. | POINT OF INTEREST | The points of psychological interest, were created the first time Nov - 2017 - and showed some reactions since then. -> POI | 1 | = 22,600 USD | Pending processing -> POI | 1 | = 28,000 USD | Pending processing -> POI | 2 | = 30,000 USD | Pending processing | POI should be used as support in the upcoming situation. | POI is used as ZONE -> no point exact support. > As "Orange" line - drawn in the chart. 6. | SIDEWAYS CHANNEL | The sideways channel formed at the last sell-off, in - May/2022. -> Range = 22.800,00 USD - 18.626,00 | Pending settlement SECOND PART As soon as the price reaches the broken down levels, we can expect a reaction from the market, which depends on the "weighting" of each level. 1. | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 23,600-24,400 USD (momentum-dependent) What would speak for it: - "BREAK OF THE SIDEWARDS-TREND CHANNEL" + confirmation - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) = completely worked off - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (2) = 0.786 - "SUPPLY ZONES | D1 (1) + 4H (1+2) = Drop-Base-Rally = WEAK + this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500! = DXY falls + S&P500 rises What is the argument against it: - "BREAK OF THE SIDE DOWNTREND CHANNEL" + without confirmation. - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (2) | 0.618+ 0.65 FIB" - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (3) | 0.328 FIB" - "POINT OF INTEREST (1) - "SUPPLY ZONE | D (2) = rally base drop = STRONG - Entire AREA - marked with "RED ZONE" = very strong resistance - need enough momentum to break it and stay above it. All levels plotted on this screenshot: 2. | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 27,500 – 30,000 USD (momentum dependent) What would speak for it: - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | Worked down to the 1.618s - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (3) | 0.328s = Pending - "SUPPLY ZONES | Worked down to the W (1) + D (3) = Outstanding - Liquidity Pools - Uptrend line serves as resistance - Test from last market structure break + this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500! = DXY falls + S&P500 rises What is the argument against it: - All AREAS - marked with "RED ZONE" = are very strong resistances - we need enough momentum to break this and stay above. All levels drawn in on this screenshot: CONCLUSION What the exact scenario for "BTC/USD" will look like is impossible to say at the moment. The correlation relevant for us to make decisions is as follows: - DXY (USD) is currently like a kind of indicator of fear in the market, with which it controls the S&P500. - The S&P500 is currently at a very relevant level (3,600 points), if this breaks sustainably (with confirmation), we will see a strong sell-off in all markets - market crash! (for this please look at my SHORT SCENARIOS version to get the relevant levels). - If this market crash does not happen, then all markets will go into a "recovery rally". The traditional market will also pull the crypto market up with it. - If this market crash does occur, then it will also have a significant impact on BTC. (Liquidation cascades of stop loss orders and fear from retail market participants.) -> The marked levels should all realize a reaction, which are dependent on momentum. -> Once it is apparent that we have formed the BOTTOM, I will upload a detailed LONG execution. -> Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I would be "burning" to hear your take on it all. If this idea and explanation added any value to you, I would be very happy to see a review of it. Thank you and happy trading!
Long
by ZielIstDieAutarkie