$BTC short term bearish outlookWhen BTC surged to touch 49K in the prior move we saw a shooting star candle form with a proceeding downward move. We see the same thing happen on the daily candle close once it hit $53k. We also see bearish divergence on the RSI indicator on the 4hr timeframe.
If history is our teacher then a move down should be forecasted in the near term. As you can see from the chart i have support at roughly 49K, if you want to be on the safe side then waiting for this next candle to print red or break support then take an entry. We should see price then retrace close to the box below where it consolidated at around $43K.
Let me know your thoughts!
Btcusdshort
When will the growth of Bitcoin end?Now the issue of time is more important than the price, we have less than 2 months from the halving and the price of Bitcoin is 60 thousand dollars. This strange bull run that eats all the resistances one after another looks like a bull trap before hawing.
Now we are witnessing a strong FOMO wave (in the 4-hour time frame, the important resistance of 53,000 to 54,000 is broken and the chart does not pull back, then Bitcoin grows by 11%), this is a sign of the swallowing of newcomers to the market.
The most important thing to think about is this
Is 60,000 bitcoins suitable for buying by big capitalists (other than micro strategy)? How about 50 thousand?
If your answer is yes, then you don't respect the risk to reward, as a result, this market loves your excitement and will drown you soon.
For some time now, the intense greed of the buyers has paid off (thank God). I am not talking about taking a short position in Bolran, saving profit and enjoying the correction of the market.
In terms of time analysis, we are witnessing the last bullish day of bitcoin and we are approaching the correction phase on the general bullish wave.
In addition, TOTAL3 (the value of altcoins without Ethereum) has also reached a critical level, we probably have 1 blood month.
btcusd shortBitcoin (BTC) is recognised as the world’s first truly digitalised digital currency (also known as a cryptocurrency). The Bitcoin price is prone to volatile swings; making it historically popular for traders to speculate on. Follow the live Bitcoin price using the real-time chart, and read the latest Bitcoin newBitcoin (BTC/USD) Hits $57k, Ethereum (ETH/USD) Touches $3,275 as Buyers Dominate the Markets and forecasts to plan your trades using fundamental and technical analysis.Bitcoin price has formed a potential top signal that forecasts a sell-off. The weekly chart also points to a bearish divergence, which adds credence to the bearish outlook. Investors can expect BTC to consolidate between the $52,062 to $45,160 levels. confirm chat
Bitcoin factor indicator accuracy is 83%
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
The Bitcoin is entirely speculation? Fundamentals support the price of it?
The Bitcoin is not entirely speculation, it is the price of the fundamentals.
The Bitcoin factor indicator is calculated by Bitcoin fundamental factor, it can reflect how much of the Bitcoin price is supported by the fundamentals.
The green line is the Bitcoin factor in the chart, the trend of it are in conformity with the price, the orange line is the yearly correlation coefficient between the Bitcoin price and the Bitcoin factor, most of the time in the vicinity of 0.8, shows that the Bitcoin prices are mostly by the Bitcoin factor influence.
Yellow line is Bitcoin forecast price, the Bitcoin factor, and the linear regression method are used to calculate. You can see, the prices fluctuating around the predicted price, it is in line with the principle of price fluctuates around value.
The purple line is determination coefficients (R2) of 10 years logarithmic Bitcoin predicted price, which represents the prediction accuracy, the value of 83% in November 2, 2021.
The blue line is warning index, which swings between -1 to 2, red background when early warning index greater than 1.4, the price in the peak, said green background when early warning index is less than -0.4, the price in the trough.
On November 2, 2021, the early warning index of 1.73, in the red background area, shows that the Bitcoin price at peak, please pay attention to risk.
7 yearly total return 101, max drawdown 35%BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Can't you invest Bitcoin for it's price fluctuations too big ?
I backtest the Bitcoin long-term strategy using historical data in 7 years, total return is 101, maximum drawdown is 35%, annualized sharpe ratio is 1.99.
In the chart above, the yellow line is the net value of account, $10000 in the January 1, 2015, to 1.02 million dollars in November 3, 2021. I backtest from 2015 because before 2015 the Bitcoin price fluctuations is much more than it after 2015, the Bitcoin price fluctuations decrease year by year, it is unlikely to have so big fluctuations in the future.
The red line is the total return, its value in November 3, 2021 is 101 .
The green line is the sharpe ratio, its value in November 3, 2021 is 1.97.
Blue line is the factor indicator, I start to buy when it is less than -0.33, and open positions for 10 days. I start to sell when it is greater than 0.4 , and close positions for 10 days. My last article "Accuracy of the Bitcoin factor indicator for 10 years is 83%" was introduced in detail. In the November 3, 2021 it has a value of 1.76, it is the maximum during the period of the backtest. Please pay attention to the risk.
Olive green line is annual return, its value in November 3, 2021 is 97%.
Yellow line is the proportion of positions, a maximum of 1, minimum value is 0, this strategy doesn't use leverage.
Purple line is the ratio of the maximum drawdown, the background is red when maximum drawdown ratio is greater than 30%, in the July 16, 2017 it's value is 35%.
In strategy tester overview, the number of transactions is 62, winning percentage is 100%, the average rate of return for trading is 163%, the average holding time was 426 days.
This strategy is suitable for ordinary investors, is a weapon to realize the freedom of wealth.
Are you a registered TradingView user? If you are not, please register .You and me all get up to $30 each after you upgrade to a paid plan.
New Bitcoin factor indicator accuracy is 92%BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
How much the Bitcoin fundamentals can explain the price of the Bitcoin ? My latest research shows that the new Bitcoin factor can explain 92% of the the logarithm of Bitcoin price.
The Bitcoin factor indicator is calculated by Bitcoin fundamental factor, it can reflect how much of the Bitcoin price is supported by the fundamentals.
The green line is the Bitcoin factor in the chart, the trend of it are in conformity with the price, the orange line is the correlation coefficient between the Bitcoin price and the Bitcoin factor in the 10 years, its value in November 5, 2021 is 0.95, shows that the Bitcoin prices are mostly by the Bitcoin factor influence.
Yellow line is Bitcoin forecast price, the Bitcoin factor, and the linear regression method are used to calculate. You can see, the prices fluctuating around the predicted price, it is in line with the principle of price fluctuates around value.
The purple line is determination coefficients (R2) of 10 years logarithmic Bitcoin predicted price, which represents the prediction accuracy, the value of 92% on November 5, 2021.
The blue line is factor indicator, which swings between -1 to 2, red background when early warning index greater than 1, the price in the peak, said green background when factor indicator is less than -0.6, the price in the trough.
On November 5, 2021, the factor indicator of 0.82, is near of 1, shows that the Bitcoin price is near of the peak, please pay attention to risk.
Are you a registered TradingView user? If you are not, please register
.You and me all get up to $30 each after you upgrade to a paid plan.
10 years total return 23K, max drawdown 41%BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Can't you invest Bitcoin for it's price fluctuations too big ?
I backtest the Bitcoin long-term strategy using historical data in 10 years and new Bitcoin factor indicator, total return is 23K, maximum drawdown is 41%, annualized sharpe ratio is 3.27.
In the chart above, the yellow line is the net value of account, $10000 on October 1, 2011, to 230 million dollars on November 8, 2021.
The red line is the total return, its value on November 8, 2021 is 23269.
The green line is the sharpe ratio, its value on November 8, 2021 is 3.27.
Blue line is the factor indicator, I start to buy when it is less than -0.8, and open positions for 5 days. I start to sell when it is greater than 1 , and close positions for 5 days. My last article "Accuracy of the new Bitcoin factor indicator for 10 years is 92%" was introduced in detail. On November 8, 2021 it has a value of 0.84, it is near to 1.Please pay attention to the risk.
Olive green line is annual return, its value on November 8, 2021 is 1.7.
Yellow line is the proportion of positions, a maximum of 1, minimum value is 0, this strategy doesn't use leverage.
Purple line is the ratio of the maximum drawdown, the background is red when maximum drawdown ratio is greater than 40%, on Febrebry 18, 2012 it's value is 41%. The maximum drawdown ratio is decreasing year by year, it' max value in 2021 is 25% on January 27, 2021.
In strategy tester overview, the number of transactions is 31, winning percentage is 100%, the average rate of return for trading is 750, the average holding time was 599 days.
This strategy is suitable for ordinary investors, is a weapon to realize the freedom of wealth.
Adequate no BS BTCUSD analysis, no random pullbacks to 10k :)Now almost every second or third analysis will show you a huge red arrow pointing to random areas to the downside.
Let's see what other options we have for BTCUSD.
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Are you ready to Short Bitcoin Yet? {11/02/2024}Educational Analysis says BITCOIN BTCUSD may go short selling for some time according to my technical.
Broker - Bitstamp
This is not an entry signal. I have no concerns with your profit and loss from this analysis.
Because from past week bitcoin has just pumping up to collect Sell Stop hunt from retail traders.
I think it's high time for bitcoin to go short!.
Let's see what this pair brings to the table in the future for us.
Please check the Comment section on how it turned out for this trade.
I HAVE NO CONCERNS WITH YOUR PROFIT OR LOSS,
Happy Trading, Fx Dollars.
BTCUSD (D) Which option do you prefer?BINANCE:BTCUSD BTCUSD (D) Which option do you prefer?
Presently, Bitcoin (BTC) exhibits two potential price trajectories:
A continued descent towards the support zone around 38.xxx.
The formation of an inverted head and shoulders pattern in the price.
Which option do you prefer?