Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Breakdown – Rising Wedge Signals Further Drop!1. Chart Overview
This 4-hour BTC/USD chart from BITSTAMP presents a well-defined Rising Wedge pattern, which is a bearish reversal structure typically signaling an upcoming price decline. After a strong upward movement, Bitcoin formed a wedge pattern with higher highs and higher lows converging. This indicates weakening bullish momentum, leading to a confirmed breakdown.
2. Key Technical Elements & Market Structure
A. Rising Wedge Formation (Bearish Pattern)
A rising wedge is a bearish reversal pattern that appears after an uptrend, showing gradually weakening buying pressure.
The chart shows that price action was following an upward sloping support and resistance trendline.
The higher highs and higher lows formed within the wedge indicate a loss of bullish momentum.
Eventually, the price broke below the lower trendline, confirming a bearish breakdown.
B. Breakdown Confirmation
A decisive bearish candle broke below the wedge's lower trendline, confirming the downward move.
After breaking down, the price attempted a small retest of the wedge’s support, which has now turned into resistance.
This successful rejection from the previous support adds to the bearish confirmation.
C. Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance Level ($88,547):
This zone acted as a strong supply area, where previous bullish moves were rejected.
If BTC/USD attempts to recover, this area may provide selling opportunities.
Support Level ($79,193):
This is the next downside target, aligned with previous price consolidation zones.
A break below this support could trigger further selling pressure.
3. Trading Setup & Strategy
A. Short Trade Setup
Entry Point: After BTC/USD confirmed the breakdown of the rising wedge.
Stop Loss: Placed slightly above the $88,547 resistance level to limit risk.
Target Price: A decline towards $79,193, which aligns with the previous major support zone.
B. Bearish Market Sentiment
BTC/USD is currently trading below the wedge, reinforcing bearish bias.
A successful retest of the broken wedge support would validate further downside continuation.
If price remains below the $85,000 level, sellers are likely to maintain control.
4. Market Outlook & Next Price Action
Bearish Scenario
If BTC fails to reclaim the wedge breakdown level, further downside is expected.
A breakdown below $80,000 psychological level could increase selling momentum toward $75,000-$77,000 levels.
Volume analysis suggests that selling pressure is increasing.
Bullish Scenario (Invalidation)
If BTC/USD reclaims the $88,547 resistance and closes above it, the bearish bias could weaken.
Bulls need to break above the rising wedge resistance trendline for a reversal.
5. Conclusion & Trading Plan
The Rising Wedge pattern breakdown confirms a bearish outlook for BTC/USD.
The risk-reward ratio for a short trade is favorable, targeting a move down to $79,193.
Traders should watch for volume confirmation and trend continuation signals before entering.
Key Takeaways
✅ Bearish Bias confirmed after the Rising Wedge breakdown.
✅ Short Position setup with entry, stop loss, and target defined.
✅ Resistance at $88,547 - Failure to break above it strengthens the bearish case.
✅ Target at $79,193 - A strong support area where buyers may step in.
6. Tags for TradingView Post
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #TradingSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoTrading #BearishPattern #RisingWedge #Breakdown #ShortTrade #PriceAction #SupportResistance #MarketAnalysis
Would you like any further refinements or additional insights? 🚀
Btcusdshort
Why We Are Expecting a Short Position in BTCUSD: Detailed Analys1. Breakout from Consolidation Phase
BTCUSD has recently broken out of a prolonged consolidation phase, which is a strong indicator of a potential shift in market sentiment. Consolidation typically occurs when price moves within a narrow range, as buyers and sellers remain in equilibrium. This phase often acts as a buildup for a significant breakout in either direction.
Recent Price Action:
BTCUSD was trading in a tight range, forming a horizontal consolidation zone with well-defined support and resistance levels. This range was consistently tested, but no decisive movement occurred until the recent downside breakout.
Significance of Breakout:
The breakout below the consolidation zone signals that the sellers have gained control, leading to an increase in bearish momentum. A decisive breakout from consolidation often results in strong directional movement, favoring the breakout direction.
2. Break of Previous Low – Confirmation of Bearish Trend
One of the most compelling reasons to initiate a short position is that BTCUSD has broken below a significant previous low.
Previous Low as Support:
The prior low acted as a critical support level that was tested multiple times during the consolidation period. When price decisively breaks below this level, it suggests that the support has failed, indicating increased selling pressure.
Breakout Confirmation:
A confirmed breakout below the previous low typically attracts more sellers and triggers stop-loss orders placed by buyers, leading to a further downward push. This kind of price action is a strong confirmation that the bearish trend is likely to continue.
3. Retest and Better Entry Opportunity
Ideal Short Entry:
After the initial breakout, BTCUSD may retest the broken support (now acting as resistance), providing an ideal opportunity to enter a short position.
Retests often occur when price temporarily pulls back toward the breakout zone, giving latecomers a chance to enter at a better risk-reward ratio.
If the retest is rejected near the previous support level (now resistance), it reinforces the validity of the breakout and provides a high-probability short entry.
Low Risk, High Reward Setup:
Entering after a retest allows placing a stop-loss slightly above the previous support-turned-resistance zone while targeting the next key support level, enhancing the risk-reward ratio.
4. Increased Bearish Momentum and Volume Confirmation
Volume Spike on Breakout:
A breakout accompanied by high volume further validates the move. Volume often acts as a confirmation that the breakout is genuine and not a false move. The increase in selling volume confirms that more market participants are aligned with the bearish outlook.
Momentum Indicators:
Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD are showing bearish divergence or have moved below key levels, suggesting that downward momentum is increasing. A break below the consolidation zone with rising bearish momentum adds further conviction to the short trade.
5. Macro and Sentiment Analysis Supporting Bearish Outlook
Macroeconomic Factors:
Broader market factors, such as increased risk aversion in global markets, regulatory concerns, or bearish sentiment surrounding cryptocurrencies, further strengthen the bearish case.
Sentiment Shift:
A shift from bullish optimism to bearish sentiment among traders often accelerates the downtrend, as fear takes over and more sell orders flood the market.
🎯 Target and Risk Management
Primary Target:
Initial target would be the next major support level, which can be identified through historical price levels or Fibonacci extensions.
Stop-Loss Placement:
Stop-loss should be placed slightly above the retested resistance level to minimize risk in case of a false breakout.
✅ Summary:
We are expecting a short position in BTCUSD primarily because:
A strong breakout occurred after a prolonged consolidation.
Price broke below a key previous low, confirming a bearish trend.
A potential retest provides a better entry point with low risk and high reward.
Volume and momentum indicators support the continuation of the downtrend.
This setup presents an excellent opportunity to capitalize on the bearish momentum in BTCUSD. 🚀
Bear cycle begins if this happens. Not the time of buy the dipI have been thinking this Bitcoin cycle has already peaked.
I am using a weekly chart here because I can fit in three BTC cycles on the screen, but it is more clear if you look at it in the Daily chart.
I am analysing the chart by using VWAP - Volume weighted moving average.
When you place VWAP (orange line) at the peak of each cycle you can see the pattern as below:
1) The price goes down steadily from the suspected peak price but eventually breaks above the descending trendline. (please check it in daily chart).
2) The price moves and closes above the descending trendine but the upside move is limited and price gets trapped and consolidate in the sideway for a few months (blue rectangular box).
3) VWAP acts as resistance line and eventually resumes the downside move.
4) By then, all momentum indicators are deep in the bear zone, and the bear cycle begins.
When I look at weekly and daily chart, I can see the same scenario is unfolding now.
I don't think the price will go straight down from here. There are good small swing trade opportunities in lower time frame for the next few months. However, if the price struggles to move above VWAP, the end of cycle scenario becomes more and more convincing.
It is just my humble opinion based on one style of analysis.
Final note:
Bitcoin price action has been very similar to NASDAQ100 and US500, and these charts are looking very dire. If US indices go down in the the next few months, Bitcoin will go with them.
Is Bitcoin going to start rising?The latest U.S. economic data has brought significant impacts. The core PCE inflation witnessed a 0.4% month - on - month increase, hitting the highest growth in a year, with a year - on - year rise of 2.8%, exceeding market anticipations. Meanwhile, the long - term inflation expectation from the University of Michigan has soared to a 32 - year high, intensifying market concerns about inflation's resurgence. Currently, the market remains enveloped in macro - risks, pending a softening of market sentiment.
Turning to the Bitcoin market, as depicted in today's price trend (the current BTCUSDT price is $82,338.01, dropping by $2,086.37, a 2.47% decline), the K - line chart analysis indicates a downward trend. The Williams indicator signals an oversold condition. Additionally, trading volume has contracted recently, with both price and volume decreasing, suggesting a sluggish and inactive market.
Nevertheless, if Bitcoin can stabilize above $82,000 and there are signs of capital reflux, gradual position - building may be considered, with a target price set above $90,000. Investors must recognize that the Bitcoin market brims with uncertainties. Variables such as forthcoming U.S. economic data, regulatory policies, and geopolitical scenarios will all sway Bitcoin prices. In this volatile financial landscape, meticulous analysis and judicious decision - making are of utmost importance for investors navigating the Bitcoin market.
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U.S. Econ Shocks: Bitcoin & Profit SignalsThe latest U.S. economic data has brought significant impacts. The core PCE inflation witnessed a 0.4% month - on - month increase, hitting the highest growth in a year, with a year - on - year rise of 2.8%, exceeding market anticipations. Meanwhile, the long - term inflation expectation from the University of Michigan has soared to a 32 - year high, intensifying market concerns about inflation's resurgence. Currently, the market remains enveloped in macro - risks, pending a softening of market sentiment.
Turning to the Bitcoin market, as depicted in today's price trend (the current BTCUSDT price is $82,338.01, dropping by $2,086.37, a 2.47% decline), the K - line chart analysis indicates a downward trend. The Williams indicator signals an oversold condition. Additionally, trading volume has contracted recently, with both price and volume decreasing, suggesting a sluggish and inactive market.
Nevertheless, if Bitcoin can stabilize above $82,000 and there are signs of capital reflux, gradual position - building may be considered, with a target price set above $90,000. Investors must recognize that the Bitcoin market brims with uncertainties. Variables such as forthcoming U.S. economic data, regulatory policies, and geopolitical scenarios will all sway Bitcoin prices. In this volatile financial landscape, meticulous analysis and judicious decision - making are of utmost importance for investors navigating the Bitcoin market.
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Observing BTC to down for a whileBTC/USD Forming an Inverted Flag and Pole Pattern – Potential Bearish Signal
Current Market Structure:
BTC/USD is currently displaying a classic Inverted Flag and Pole pattern, which is a bearish continuation formation indicating that the market may be preparing for a downside move. This pattern typically forms after a strong downward price movement (the pole), followed by a period of consolidation or a slight upward retracement that forms the inverted flag.
1. Formation Breakdown:
Pole Formation:
The pole was formed after BTC/USD experienced a sharp decline from recent highs, characterized by strong bearish momentum and high volume.
This steep price drop signifies increased selling pressure, often triggered by a combination of profit-taking, liquidation of leveraged positions, and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Flag Formation:
Following the pole, BTC/USD has entered a consolidation phase, creating a slight upward or sideways retracement. This phase forms a channel or wedge-like pattern that slopes slightly upward or horizontally.
The flag reflects a temporary pause where buyers attempt to regain control, but the low volume and weak bullish pressure indicate a lack of conviction in sustaining the upward movement.
2. Key Characteristics to Note:
Volume Behavior:
During the pole formation, volume was significantly high, confirming strong selling interest.
In the flag phase, volume has tapered off, suggesting that the upward movement lacks the strength to reverse the previous bearish trend.
Resistance and Support Levels:
BTC is currently testing the upper boundary of the flag, near the $ resistance.
If this level holds and BTC fails to break out, a reversal towards the lower end of the flag is likely, followed by a potential breakdown.
Support to watch lies around the $ zone, which aligns with the pole’s base and a potential target for the next bearish leg.
3. Expected Market Behavior:
Bearish Continuation Likely:
If BTC breaks below the lower boundary of the flag, it is likely to resume its prior bearish trend. The next downside target is typically measured by projecting the length of the pole downward from the breakdown point, potentially bringing BTC to levels around $ .
A breakdown with strong volume confirmation would further validate this bearish move.
Invalidation Scenario:
If BTC breaks above the flag’s resistance zone with convincing volume, the bearish pattern may be invalidated, potentially leading to a retest of higher resistance levels around $ .
4. Market Sentiment and External Factors:
Macro Influences: Ongoing concerns regarding regulatory changes, interest rate hikes, and broader economic uncertainty may further weigh on BTC’s price.
Trader Behavior: Institutional selling and retail panic could accelerate the downward momentum once the pattern confirms the breakdown.
Conclusion:
BTC/USD’s current pattern suggests that a period of downside correction is likely. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels closely, along with volume confirmation to assess the next leg of price action. A confirmed breakdown from the flag structure may signal a continuation of the bearish trend, while a breakout above resistance would invalidate the bearish setup.
BTC Today's strategyYesterday, BTC has broken through the previous support level of 85,000. Currently, it is fluctuating between 83,000 and 85,000. Within this range, every decline could potentially be a signal for us to make a profit.
Trading is not gambling. Every single one of our trades must be based on strong data support.
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sell:84500-85000
SL:82000
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Sat 29th Mar 2025 BTC/USD Daily Forex Chart Sell SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a BTC/USD Sell. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast | Rising Wedge Breakdown & Bearish MoveIntroduction
This Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 1-Day Chart Analysis highlights a critical market development: the breakdown of a Rising Wedge pattern, signaling a potential bearish trend. After reaching a new all-time high (ATH) resistance, BTC has shown weakness, confirming a possible reversal. This analysis covers key levels, trend structure, trading setups, and market psychology for traders looking to capitalize on this move.
1️⃣ Understanding the Chart Structure
Rising Wedge Pattern – A Classic Bearish Reversal
A Rising Wedge is a bearish technical formation that develops when prices rise within a narrowing range. It typically features:
✅ Higher Highs & Higher Lows: Suggesting bullish momentum, but the price action becomes weaker over time.
✅ Converging Trendlines: Showing a loss of buyer strength as each rally fails to make significant new highs.
✅ Volume Decline: As the wedge matures, volume decreases, confirming reduced buying interest.
✅ Breakdown Confirmation: A sharp drop below the lower trendline validates the bearish move.
In this case, BTC followed all the classic wedge characteristics, and its breakdown has initiated a potential major correction.
2️⃣ Key Levels & Market Dynamics
🔵 Resistance Level + All-Time High (ATH) (~$110K-$115K)
BTC reached its ATH resistance zone but failed to hold above it.
The red arrow indicates the rejection at the top, where strong selling pressure emerged.
Bulls attempted multiple breakouts but failed, leading to a reversal.
🟢 Support Zone (~$78K-$80K) – Weak Retest Before Breakdown
The price initially bounced off this support but struggled to hold gains.
The blue support level highlights a key zone where BTC found temporary stability.
A weak rally followed, but the price got rejected again, confirming the bearish trend.
🔻 Major Bearish Target (~$48,920)
Using the measured move theory, the projected drop extends to $48,920, a strong historical support.
The black arrow points to the expected downward trajectory.
3️⃣ Trading Setup & Risk Management
🔽 Bearish Trade Setup (Short Position Strategy)
For traders looking to short BTC based on this pattern, here’s an optimal trade setup:
🔸 Entry Point: Around $85K-$90K (post-retest of breakdown)
🔸 Stop Loss: Above $100K (invalidation of the bearish setup)
🔸 Take Profit Targets:
TP1: $75K (minor support)
TP2: $60K (psychological level)
TP3: $48,920 (final bearish target)
Alternative Scenario – Bullish Recovery?
If BTC reclaims $100K+ with high volume, the bearish thesis is invalidated, signaling a continuation of the uptrend.
A break above ATH ($115K) would confirm new bullish strength.
4️⃣ Market Sentiment & Psychological Factors
📉 Bearish Sentiment Strengthens:
Rising Wedges often cause a bull trap, where buyers expect new highs but get caught in a reversal.
Current price action suggests sellers are gaining control.
⚠️ Key Risks for Traders:
False breakdowns can occur if BTC sees unexpected bullish news.
Keeping an eye on fundamental developments (ETF approvals, macroeconomic conditions, etc.) is essential.
Conclusion – BTC Heading for a Deeper Correction?
Bitcoin’s Rising Wedge breakdown strongly suggests a continued bearish trend.
Short opportunities are ideal below $90K, with downside targets near GETTEX:48K -$50K.
If BTC regains $100K+, bearish outlook is invalid.
📊 Trading Recommendation: Monitor price action closely and adjust risk management accordingly!
Would you like me to tweak any part of this analysis? 😊
BTC Today's strategyLast week, we marked the upward channel of BTC and also made a profit from it. Currently, BTC has broken below the support level of 85,000 US dollars, but it is still within the range we marked. We can try to buy at around 84,500 US dollars and sell at around 86,500 US dollars.
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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Trading Analysis – Rectangle Pattern Breakdown1. Market Overview
The BTC/USD chart (1-hour timeframe) illustrates a trendline-supported uptrend that eventually transitioned into a rectangle consolidation pattern before breaking downward. The market displayed signs of buyer exhaustion near the resistance level, leading to a rectangle pattern breakdown, confirming a bearish shift.
This analysis will break down the chart structure, key technical levels, potential trade setups, and risk management strategies for traders looking to capitalize on this move.
2. Breakdown of the Chart Structure
A. Trendline Breakout & Shift in Market Sentiment
The chart initially exhibits an ascending trendline, acting as dynamic support for Bitcoin’s price.
As long as BTC/USD remained above this trendline, the uptrend was intact.
However, once the price broke below the trendline with strong bearish momentum, it signaled a significant shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish.
The breakdown of the trendline also coincided with the rectangle’s lower boundary breakdown, confirming bearish strength.
B. Rectangle Pattern Formation (Consolidation Phase)
The price oscillated between resistance at $88,500 and support at $86,000, forming a rectangle consolidation pattern.
This pattern reflects a period of market indecision where buyers and sellers are in equilibrium.
Multiple failed breakout attempts at resistance signaled strong seller dominance, leading to eventual support failure.
The rectangle breakdown suggests that bears have gained control and a downward move is likely.
C. Breakdown Confirmation & Target Projection
The price broke below the lower support of the rectangle ($86,000) with increased selling pressure.
The bearish breakout was confirmed by strong red candles with high volume, reinforcing the downside move.
The height of the rectangle pattern provides a measured move target of around $83,797, aligning with previous support.
The momentum remains bearish, and price is likely to test this level before any reversal attempt.
3. Trade Setup & Risk Management
A. Ideal Trade Entry
Entry Point: After the price retested the broken rectangle support at $86,000, which now acts as resistance.
Confirmation: The rejection from this resistance with a bearish engulfing candle confirmed further downside.
Bearish momentum indicators, such as RSI and MACD crossovers, further validated the setup.
B. Stop-Loss Placement (Risk Management Strategy)
Stop Loss: Placed above the previous resistance zone at $88,969 to protect against false breakouts.
Rationale: If price moves back into the rectangle and surpasses resistance, the bearish setup becomes invalid.
C. Take-Profit Target & Risk-to-Reward Ratio
Target: $83,797, based on the rectangle pattern height projection and key support levels.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: The setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, ensuring that potential gains outweigh potential losses.
4. Market Sentiment & Future Outlook
A. Bearish Continuation Outlook
The trendline failure, rectangle breakdown, and bearish candlestick patterns all suggest a continuation of the downtrend.
If price fails to reclaim support-turned-resistance ($86,000), further downside is expected.
Increased selling volume confirms bearish control.
B. Possible Bullish Reversal Scenarios
If BTC/USD bounces strongly from the $83,797 target zone, it could indicate buyer accumulation and lead to a bullish recovery.
A move back above $86,000 would invalidate the bearish outlook.
5. Conclusion
This BTC/USD analysis highlights a bearish rectangle pattern breakdown, reinforced by a trendline break and strong resistance rejections at $88,500. The breakout target is $83,797, where traders should monitor price action for further bearish continuation or potential reversal signs.
Traders should approach with caution, set appropriate stop-loss levels, and follow volume trends for confirmation of further price movements.
Bitcoin Nears Breakout: Can Bulls Push Past $89K?Currently, the key support level for the price of Bitcoin is around $86,000. This level has played a supporting role several times in the recent price fluctuations. If the price can hold this position, it will provide strong support for subsequent upward movements. The key resistance level above is at $89,000. If the price of Bitcoin can break through and firmly stand above this resistance level, it is highly likely to initiate a new round of upward market; if it fails to break through, the price may continue to experience small - scale oscillatory rebounds within the current range.
From a technical indicator perspective, the moving average indicates that Bitcoin has a short - term upward trend. The price has broken through the area where the signal line is located, indicating that the pressure from "digital gold" buyers is relatively high, and the asset value is likely to continue the upward momentum from the current level. However, the MACD indicator experienced a bearish crossover at the beginning of this week. Although the signal line is currently downward, the MACD line has started to move upward. Nevertheless, a trend reversal is unlikely to occur in the short term. In terms of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), this indicator has moved out of the oversold area and is currently in the neutral zone, indicating that the seller's market may have ended. The price of Bitcoin is expected to maintain its current position and may further rise within the next 5 - 7 days.
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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Potential Correction Ahead?hello guys
The Bitcoin/USDT chart shows an ascending channel with recent price action forming a divergence at the top, indicating potential weakening momentum. A bearish breakout from a smaller triangle suggests a short-term correction. The price may test the ascending trendline around $85,400, where a key support zone exists. If this level fails, a deeper correction toward the major support area around $76,800 could follow. However, if Bitcoin holds above the trendline, the uptrend could resume.
Traders should watch price action around the $85,400 level for confirmation of further downside or a potential bounce.
Bitcoin’s Next Move: Falling to $79K?This detailed technical analysis of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe highlights a Rising Wedge pattern, key support and resistance levels, a trade setup, and projected price movements. The chart suggests a bearish breakdown, and traders can use this analysis to make informed decisions.
1. Understanding the Chart Pattern – Rising Wedge Formation
A Rising Wedge is a bearish reversal pattern that occurs when the price moves upwards within two converging trendlines. The slope of the lower trendline is steeper than the upper trendline, indicating weaker bullish momentum and an increasing probability of a downside breakdown.
📌 Key Observations:
The black solid trendlines outline the wedge pattern.
The price action remained inside this wedge from March 11 to March 26, 2025.
A breakdown has now occurred, confirming bearish momentum.
🔺 Why is this Bearish?
Rising Wedges are considered distribution patterns, meaning buyers are losing strength, and sellers are gradually taking control.
The price fails to make aggressive new highs and instead grinds upward weakly.
Once support is broken, a strong sell-off usually follows.
2. Key Chart Levels – Support & Resistance Zones
🔵 Resistance Level (Upper Bound of Wedge & Supply Zone)
The red arrow marks a strong rejection at $88,500 - $89,000, which acted as a major resistance level.
This zone has seen multiple failed breakout attempts, signaling that sellers dominate this area.
Stop-losses for short trades should be placed above this resistance zone.
🟢 Support Level (Lower Bound of Wedge & Demand Zone)
The wedge's lower boundary previously acted as strong support until it was breached.
The blue highlighted box represents a demand zone around $81,000, where buyers previously stepped in.
Losing this level could trigger a much stronger bearish move.
3. Breakdown Confirmation & Trading Setup
With the wedge broken to the downside, we now look for a confirmed bearish setup to enter a trade.
📉 Bearish Confirmation:
✅ The price broke below the wedge’s lower boundary, signaling a reversal.
✅ A retest of the broken wedge trendline confirms the breakdown.
✅ The price is now showing lower highs and lower lows, indicating a new bearish trend.
🎯 Trade Setup – How to Play This Move?
🔴 Entry for Short Position:
Enter short between $86,900 - $87,200 after confirming a rejection at the broken trendline.
🔵 Stop Loss:
Place a stop-loss above $89,282 to protect against a fakeout.
If BTC closes back inside the wedge, the short setup is invalidated.
🟢 Target 1: $81,000 – This is a key demand zone, and price might temporarily bounce here.
🟢 Target 2: $79,031 – This is the next strong support level, making it a final bearish target.
⚠ Risk Management Note:
Adjust position size based on risk tolerance.
Be mindful of short squeezes (where price temporarily spikes before continuing lower).
4. Expected Price Movement – Bearish Projection
🔮 The dashed black lines on the chart indicate a likely price pathway:
1️⃣ A breakdown below the wedge, followed by a minor retest of the broken trendline.
2️⃣ A continuation toward $81,000 (support level).
3️⃣ A small bounce before further decline.
4️⃣ The price reaching the final target of $79,031, where buyers may start accumulating again.
📌 If Bitcoin breaks below $81,000 with high volume, the bearish trend will likely accelerate.
5. Market Psychology & Trading Strategy
📌 Why This Setup Makes Sense?
The market exhibited exhaustion at the top of the wedge.
The break-and-retest confirms seller dominance.
The lower highs & lower lows show bearish momentum.
🚀 Alternative Bullish Scenario?
If BTC reclaims the wedge and breaks above $89,000, then the bearish setup is invalid.
A close above $89,500 would signal strong buying pressure and potential bullish continuation.
6. Conclusion – What to Watch Next?
🔎 Key Points to Monitor:
✔ Retest & rejection at $87,000 – $88,000 (confirming bearish momentum).
✔ Break of $81,000 to signal continuation toward the target.
✔ Stop-loss protection above $89,000 to manage risk.
📊 Final Thoughts:
The Rising Wedge breakdown suggests a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment.
This is a high-probability short trade with well-defined entry, stop-loss, and targets.
Traders should wait for price action confirmation before entering trades.
Would you like any refinements, or do you need further trade ideas? 🚀📉
BTC Today's strategyBTC is still fluctuating within the range of 86.5K to 88.5K. We must find the right opportunity. Please be patient. When it approaches 86.5K, you can buy it for the short term.
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tp:88.5K-89K
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BTCUSD: Sell or buy? You can tell at a glance.BTCUSD combined with the four-hour trend, the bulls still have momentum. Formed two big supports for bottoming out. After 87,000 stabilizes. It will also hit above 88,000 in the short term. Because the opportunity to go long still exists. Short-term trading continues to buy near the current price of 87,000, TP88,000, SL86,000
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BTC's Bull Run: Profit Realized, Resistance AheadCurrently, BTC is hovering around $88,000. We had already achieved our profit target yesterday. Ever since BTC broke through the $85,000 mark, it has been rising continuously. The market is in a bullish - dominated trend, with strong buying power driving the price up steadily. Although it's in an uptrend, there's uncertainty about its future movement as it hasn't broken through the $89,000 - $90,000 resistance range. If it fails to break through this resistance zone effectively, the price may decline again eventually.
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BTC Today's strategyIn the short term, it will continue to adjust around 88,000. Once it builds up momentum, it’s likely to break through 90,000.
Each downward movement could present an opportunity for us.
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tp:88.5K-89K
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BTC/USD Rising Wedge – Bearish Breakdown Ahead?Introduction: Understanding the Market Structure
This Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 4-hour chart presents a technical setup with a mix of bullish and bearish formations. The analysis focuses on key support and resistance zones, trendlines, and chart patterns to determine the next possible move.
🔍 The key takeaway? BTC has formed a Rising Wedge, a bearish reversal pattern, signaling potential downside unless a breakout invalidates the setup.
1. Market Structure & Current Trend Analysis
📌 Market in Curve Formation – The Accumulation Phase
Before the recent rally, Bitcoin was in a downtrend, making lower lows and lower highs, suggesting a period of price weakness.
However, price found strong support at around $77,600 - $80,000, forming a curved bottom structure—an early signal of an accumulation phase.
This bottoming pattern transitioned into a bullish uptrend, leading to the formation of a rising wedge.
🔹 Key Observations:
✔ Accumulation near $77,600 created a base for buyers.
✔ The gradual recovery curve suggests a shift from bearish to bullish momentum.
✔ Bitcoin later formed higher lows, confirming a temporary uptrend.
⚠ Shift in Momentum – The Rising Wedge Appears
The price rallied from the support zone but started forming a Rising Wedge pattern, which is typically a bearish signal.
A rising wedge indicates that although buyers are pushing prices up, they are losing momentum.
The narrowing price range suggests that sellers are entering at higher levels, weakening bullish strength.
2. Key Technical Levels to Watch
🔵 Resistance Zone ($92,000 - $94,957)
The shaded area near $92,000 - $94,957 is a major resistance level, where BTC previously failed to sustain a breakout.
This supply zone has been tested multiple times, reinforcing its strength.
The Stop Loss for short positions is placed above $94,957—any breakout above this level would invalidate the bearish setup.
🟠 Support Zone ($77,600 - $80,000)
The strong demand zone between $77,600 - $80,000 aligns with previous support levels.
If the rising wedge breaks down, this is the first major price target where BTC could find support.
A strong breakdown below $77,600 could lead to further declines toward $75,000 or lower.
3. The Rising Wedge Pattern – Bearish Warning!
🔍 What is a Rising Wedge?
A Rising Wedge is a bearish reversal pattern that forms during an uptrend when price moves within two converging trendlines.
It indicates that buyers are losing strength, and sellers are preparing to take control.
Once the lower trendline breaks, it confirms bearish momentum, leading to a price drop.
📝 Current BTC/USD Rising Wedge Analysis:
BTC has formed higher highs and higher lows, but the price range is narrowing.
The lower trendline is critical—a breakdown below this level could trigger a sharp decline.
The bearish target aligns with the support zone near $77,600.
4. Trading Plan – Possible Scenarios
📉 Bearish Breakdown Scenario (High Probability)
✅ Entry: Short BTC if the price breaks below the rising wedge (~$86,000 - $85,500).
✅ Stop Loss: Above $94,957 to protect against invalidation.
✅ Take Profit Target: $77,600 - $80,000 (first support level).
✅ Extended Target: If BTC drops below $77,600, watch for $75,000 - $72,000.
✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: Ideally 1:3 or higher for optimal trade management.
📈 Bullish Breakout Scenario (Low Probability but Possible!)
If BTC breaks and closes above $94,957, the bearish setup becomes invalid.
A confirmed breakout above resistance could push BTC towards $98,000 - $100,000.
Traders should wait for volume confirmation before entering long positions.
5. Risk Management & Final Thoughts
⚠ Risk Factors to Consider:
If BTC breaks the wedge with low volume, the move might be a false breakdown.
Macroeconomic events, such as interest rate decisions, can influence price behavior.
Watch for bullish divergences in indicators like RSI or MACD before shorting aggressively.
🔎 Conclusion:
The Rising Wedge pattern suggests a bearish reversal—a breakdown could send BTC toward $77,600.
Traders should wait for confirmation before entering trades.
If BTC breaks above $94,957, a bullish continuation could push it toward $100,000.
🔥 Bearish Bias Until Breakdown Confirmation!
Would you like an indicator-based analysis (e.g., RSI, MACD, or Moving Averages)? 🚀
BTC/USDT:Pay attention to the resistance zone.BTC fluctuated within the forecast and reached the profit point. However, the 88K-89K resistance area needs to be watched, and if it cannot be effectively broken this week, then it will fall
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BTCUSDT: Today's SignalsToday, Bitcoin is fluctuating within the range of 86,000 and 88,000. It's attempting to touch the resistance level of 89,000. The upward trend is weakening, and eventually, the price will drop.
BTCUSDT sell@88500-89000
TP 1:86000
TP 2:83000
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