Btcusdsignals
BITCOIN 1W MACD Bearish Cross formed. Is it alarming?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is on the 3rd straight bearish week (1W) following the 49000 High, which technically was a Higher High on the 1-year Channel Up. This is the 2nd Higher High structure within this pattern (first was on April 10 2023) and technically we are currently on the new Bearish Leg that seeks the formation of a new Higher Low at the bottom of the Channel Up.
** 1W MACD Bearish Cross **
This week's big development though is the completion of a Bearish Cross on the 1W MACD, the first one since July 24 2023 and before that May 29 2023. Both of those came after the peak formations but delivered at least another 3 weeks of downtrend.
** The 3-year Cyclical Demand/ Supply Zone **
Interestingly enough those peaks were priced on the 3-year Cyclical Demand/ Supply Zone, which we have analyzed extensively in previous publications (has been Support during the Bull Cycle and Resistance during the Bear Cycle). This time BTC is above that Zone and the current Bearish Leg has high probabilities of testing it as a Support (Demand) for the first time since May 2022.
** Where to buy? **
The medium-term supporting trend-line is the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), which is already near the middle of that Zone and long-term the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is about to enter it. What long-term investors and Dollar-Cost-Average traders should be looking for is buy positions on those key levels. If the Cyclical Zone holds (i.e. keeps closing 1W candles above it), then it will be confirmed as a Supply level for the remainder of the Bull Cycle and most likely will propel the price to the new Parabolic Rally Phase after April's Halving.
** Next Target? **
Every Bullish Leg within the 1-year Channel Up has been around +100%, so as long as the pattern holds, we should be technically expecting a rebound of similar magnitude. Assuming the bottom (Higher Low) is priced as low as possible (on the 1W MA50), a new +100% rise will provide a Higher High around 65000, just below Resistance 2 (69150), which is essentially the All Time High (ATH). Historic patterns have shown that a buy just before the 1W MACD forms a Bullish Cross, is perhaps the most optimal entry in preparation for this rally.
But what do you think? Is Bitcoin about to test the Supply Zone and perhaps the 1D MA200 and 1W MA50? Are you waiting for a long-term buy there? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN MACD bottom pattern shows when to Buy and when to Sell !Over the years we have discovered many historic patterns applicable to Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles. With a relative degree of volatility every time, since each Cycle has it's own distinct characteristics and fundamental events that shape it, those patterns can help traders/ investors construct strategies for buying and selling on a long-term scale.
This time we have come across a very unique pattern on the 1M time-frame, which can identify where to Buy and where to Sell, near the Tops and Bottoms respectively, on a Cyclical scale.
Starting from the November 2011 bottom onwards, each Cycle is measured at either 3.58 or 3.83 years to the point where the 1M MACD bottoms. The last MACD bottom and start of reversal was on February 2023, while BTC was trading around 23k on average. Still not as appealing as the November 2022 16000 but low enough to provide an excellent (and confirmed) long-term dip buy entry compared to the previous $69000 All Time High.
At the moment the price is on the 0.236 Fibonacci level of the current Cycle and as you can see on the chart, this is the level where BTC makes a 1-2 month pull-back. The Tops are priced either on the 0.5 or 0.618 Fibonacci levels. This means that long-term investors could take their profits either on January 2025 or July 2025, if the current Cycle lasts again 3.58 years. And as for the next bottom based on the model, it is expected on December 2026, where we can take a (relatively) confirmed buy position again for the long-term.
But what do you think about that MACD bottom model? Are you also expecting a new Cycle Top within January - July 2025? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD 17/01Pair : BTCUSD ( Bitcoin / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Impulse Correction " ab " Completed. Consolidation Phase as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame and Long Time Frame and Rejection from Upper Trend Line. Bullish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Long Time Frame with the Breakout of the Lower Trend Line
Bitcoin Price in Need of a Boost: Key Levels to WatchThe current state of Bitcoin's value requires a push from investors, as the cryptocurrency finds itself hovering around the $43,000 mark at the time of writing. Following a 7.7% dip over the past weekend, BTC has fallen below the upward trendline, which previously acted as a crucial support level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also, for the first time in three months, dropped below the neutral 50.0 level, indicating a mild downward trend at present. Despite Bitcoin's attempts to break free from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $42,069, there is potential for recovery as long as the $44,000 barrier is breached.
The market sentiment surrounding Bitcoin hinges on the successful overcoming of the $44,000 resistance, offering a chance for the cryptocurrency to regain its footing. Investors will be closely monitoring this critical level, as a decisive breakthrough could pave the way for a renewed upward trajectory. As Bitcoin navigates these key levels, the coming days will likely unfold with significant implications for its short-term price action.
BTCUSD M30 / LONG TRADE ACTIVE ON BITCOIN💲🚀Hello Traders!
As you can see, the chart has tested multiple times the resistance level, and now I expect a STRONG BULLISH MOVE.
In the previous idea, I expected an increase after testing the resistance level.
Now the long trade is ACTIVE.
Follow, like, and comment to see my content:
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BITCOIN Will it respect the 3-year Pivot Zone?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) had a strong rejection last week shortly after breaking Resistance 1 (48400), which was the high of the March 28 2022 1W candle. That is technically strong enough to initiate a medium-term pull-back on its own. The correction bias get even stronger though if we consider the 3-year Pivot Zone which has been relevant since January 11 2021, initially as a Support (held numerous times, see green circles) and later as a Resistance (red circles).
A potential test of even the top of the Zone would bring the BTC as close as possible to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which would be a healthy medium-term correction before the next parabolic rally starts. The next Resistance is the 68900 All Time High (ATH) and obviously our next long-term Target.
But what do you think? Will Bitcoin give us this pull-back buy opportunity? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD H1 / EXPECTING A BULLISH MOVE IN THE COMING WEEK 📈Hello Traders!
This is my idea related to BTCUSD H1. I see equal lows on the chart, a good sign for bullish sentiment. Before going bullish it set equal lows to collect some SL of the retails and now I will look only for long entries.
An objective, I have 2 TPs. The first one is above the FVG where we have an OB and the next TP is the second OB (you can see 30M chart).
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
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BTCUSDT: Will it hit $48000? Still remain uncertainBTCUSDT remain uncertain since last two weeks price have continuosly failed to breakthrough 44k region remain sellers strong hold. Still expecting price to bounce back and create a HH. There is high possibility that price even can drop 35k area if we see no strong bullish momentum in coming days.
Comment Down your views on btcusdt?
BITCOIN The path to All Time Highs is scripted.It has been 14 months (November 14 2022) since we published our first (and to this date most important) Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Cycle comparison between 2022/ 2023 and 2014/ 2015:
www.tradingview.com
As you can see the main driver behind this comparison was the FTX crash in November 2022 and the Bitfinex crash in August 2015, which both acted as catalysts for the bottom. Following the FTX crash/ bottom, the price action has so far followed quite closely the 2015/ 2016 recovery.
On today's analysis, also on the 1W time-frame, we focus on the Rising Wedge that funneled the price action from the Cycle bottom to the bullish recovery. The similarities between the two Cycles are remarkable:
1. Bounce on the Lower Highs and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) break-out, which basically confirmed the transition into the Bull Cycle.
2. Immediate Channel Down after the 1W MA50 break-out on the Rising Wedge's first Higher High.
3. 1W MA50 supporting since the break-out.
Right now we are in the stage where the price has broken above the Rising Wedge. In June 2016 this caused a short-term correction back inside the Wedge towards the 1W MA50, which as mentioned held. If BTC continues to replicate that Cycle, does it mean that such a technical correction is due? The 1W MA50 is currently above 30000 and rising aggressively.
But what do you think? Are you expecting a 1 - 1.5 month pull-back from here and then a new All Time High after April's Halving? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC/USD Dynamics and Concerns over Attraction ForcesReaching the $48,000.00 mark earlier this week, some speculators may view this value as an upcoming attraction point for Bitcoin. However, traders in the BTC/USD market must maintain a realistic perspective, acknowledging the potential for Bitcoin prices to decline, and a one-way upward trend could pose a risky gamble, given the likelihood of lower reversals.
Risk management remains crucial for BTC/USD, and short-term volatility is expected to increase in the near future. Attraction forces persist for BTC/USD, and its value may decrease if Bitcoin holders decide to withdraw profits as financial institutions begin to engage in Bitcoin ETFs. The upcoming trading days in the BTC/USD market will garner attention, urging traders to exercise caution.
Short-term prospects for Bitcoin:
Current Resistance Level: $46,375.00
Current Support Level: $46,150.00
High Target: $47,200.00
Low Target: $45,540.00
This analysis underscores the importance of a balanced approach in the BTC/USD market, recognizing both attraction forces and potential risks. It provides a forward-looking perspective for traders, emphasizing the need for careful consideration in the face of evolving market dynamics.
BITCOIN ETF APPROVED!! Aggressive rally to $120k possible?Exactly a year ago (January 18 2023) we posted our last Fibonacci MAs study and called for a calculated rally while the rice was still at 20k:
It is now time to expand on our original idea and update it using the Mayer Multiple Bands. Basically, as you can see on the chart below, the Mayer MA helped us on June 17 2022 identify the Bottom Phase on the 1W MA300:
On the current analysis the 1W MA300 is portrayed by the blue trend-line but our focus has shifted to the black trend-line (Mayer Multiple Mean), which just broke emphatically this week. As you can see, when BTC has broken above this level since November 2015 (green circles), it starts aggressive rallies (lowest of those 3 has been the April - June 2019 of +180%).
The dashed curve represents the Bull Cycle Rally phases and if the +180% mininum black trend-line rise is repeated, expect at least $120000 as the current Cycle High. It might be less aggressive than the previous ones (Theory of Diminishing Returns and Cycle lengthening) but it should hit at least the orange trend-line (2nd upper SD) as it has always done in the past.
But what do you think? Are we going to see such a strong rally now that the Mayer Multiple Mean has been broken? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Trades Sideways After SEC Greenlights Spot Bitcoin ETFBitcoin was hovering around an elevated flatline on late Wednesday after the Securities and Exchange Commission gave the go-ahead for the first spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) to be traded in the U.S., as expected.
According to Coin Metrics, the cryptocurrency pared earlier losses and was most recently trading around $46,671. Meanwhile, the price of ether shot up as much as 15.5% to $2,606, the highest since May 2022. Most recently it was up 14.5% at $2,586.54.
The ETF approval is a milestone for the crypto industry, which first sought to launch a bitcoin ETF more than 10 years ago. Optimism has been building since Grayscale's major legal victory over the SEC in August regarding the regulator's refusal to allow them to convert their popular Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF. The price of the leading cryptocurrency has risen 80% since then.
Bitcoin's Jubilee Upgrade ImpactBitcoin is preparing for a significant "Jubilee Upgrade" at block height 824,544. This upgrade briefly suspends deposit and withdrawal services for certain BRC20 tokens on January 5, 2024. The update aims to address inconsistencies in engravings on BTC denominations within the BRC-20 network. UniSat will monitor functionality, and a scheduled network update from January 5 to 6 will temporarily close the BRC20 market while other services continue uninterrupted.
Bitcoin Eyes $50,000 amid ETF SpeculationBitcoin's price continues to oscillate around the weekly supply zone midpoint of $43,860, poised for an early breakout as imminent ETF launches draw closer. The flagship cryptocurrency finds robust support from the 25-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $43,130 and $41,391, respectively. The upward slope of these EMAs indicates minimal resistance ahead. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also trends north, signaling upward momentum. Increased buying pressure at current levels might drive Bitcoin to decisively breach the pivotal $43,860 level, paving the way for the next crucial range expansion toward $48,000.
Once surpassing the $48,000 threshold, Bitcoin could swiftly surge towards the psychological level of $50,000 before profit-taking ensues. Traders exercising profit control might set the pace for BTC to achieve the ambitious target of $60,000.
Conversely, premature profit-taking prompted by SEC rejections or delayed decisions could trigger a downturn. Such action might break below the 25-day and 50-day EMAs before testing the convergence between the 100-day EMA and horizontal support near $37,800.
However, to nullify the current bullish outlook, Bitcoin would need to close below the psychological level of $30,000.
BITCOIN Formed the first 1W Golden Cross in history!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) completed with last week's candle a Golden Cross on the 1W time-frame, its first ever in history! That alone is a monumental development, as the Golden Cross pattern is a powerful technical formation, especially on stable long-term time-frames such as the 1W.
Apart from the technicalities, this pattern becomes even more important considering the fact that it was formed only three days before the all important decision of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission regarding the approval of a Bitcoin ETF.
On the current analysis we decide it would be productive to maintain a long-term perspective on BTC and interpret the Golden Cross and the potential ETF approval on a macro Cyclical scale. As you can see, we are on that certain level during each Cycle when the Parabolic Rally is about to take off. Principally, there is nothing that can hold BTC back, especially after Halving 4 this April and every pull-back on the dotted trend-line is technically a long-term buy entry.
But what do you think? Is this first ever 1W Golden Cross along with a potential ETF approval really what Bitcoin needs to take off and approach the All Time High? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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"Bitcoin's 67% Value Surge Despite Regulatory Challenges"Even amidst regulatory crackdowns on cryptocurrency exchanges over the past year, Bitcoin has exhibited consistent growth throughout much of 2023, currently hovering around $43,610 - an increase of nearly $18,000 in value since September.
Reaching its peak at around $68,000 in November 2021, Bitcoin faced a significant setback by November 2022, losing over 75% of that value following the collapse of FTX, a major crypto exchange at the time. Yet, it seems poised for a resurgence once again.
This resilience underscores Bitcoin's ability to weather regulatory challenges and market upheavals, emphasizing its enduring appeal and potential for recovery amidst a rapidly evolving financial landscape.
BTC/USD Analysis Bitcoin surged past the $44,700 resistance on January 2, yet this breakthrough turned out to be a price trap as it plunged on January 3. Buyers stepped in as prices dipped to the 50-day simple moving average ($40,938), showcasing robust bullish defense around the $40,000 mark. The exponential 20-day moving average traded sideways at ($42,855), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovered around neutral, indicating restrained price action ahead. The range boundaries could be $40,000 and $45,879.
A significant drop below the $40,000 support would signal short-term bullish capitulation. This scenario might drive the BTC/USDT pair towards the next major support at $37,980.
Buyers regain control upon pushing the price beyond $45,879. Subsequently, the pair could rally towards $50,000.
The recent price movement indicates a delicate balance between bulls and bears, with $40,000 as a critical level to watch. Breaking below could see further downside, while surging past $45,879 could reignite bullish momentum towards the $50,000 mark.
BITCOIN Is a potential ETF approval already priced in?It has been almost 3 months since Cointelegraph's fake ETF approval tweet (October 16 2023), which was basically the start of a medium-term mid-Cycle parabolic rally for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) that saw it grow by +69.10% this week. Yesterday we got the first serious signs of exhaustion as the 1D candle made contact with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since October 12 2023. That was also at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up pattern. Both (1D MA50 and Channel Up) held, which keeps the trend bullish for now.
** Is the ETF priced in ahead of SEC? **
Only days before the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) deadline regarding its decision, the real question is, has a potential Bitcoin ETF approval already priced in on this enormous mid-Cycle rally?
** Buy the rumor, sell the news? **
Indeed that was a significant move, especially considering the fact that it took place months before the next Halving (number 4, expected this April), which is the fundamentals event that provides a supply shock in the market. Nobody knows for sure how the market will react to a potential ETF approval next week but we have seen the old 'Buy the rumor, sell the news' approach one too many times happening in situations like this.
** Next Halving is the benchmark **
It wouldn't be surprising to see a correction towards April's Halving and then accumulation towards the Bull Cycle's 1 year rally. Purely from a technical point of view, which is the only hard data we have at hand to work with, a 1D MA50/ Channel Down break downwards can start a technical correction towards the lower Fibonacci retracement levels and the long-term Moving Averages.
** Fibonacci targets and the 1W MA50 **
The first level to test would be the 0.382 Fibonacci around 37500 and then the 0.5 Fib around 35350. If the correction takes place gradually in a controlled manner and not aggressively, we can see a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) contact by then. A more aggressive possibility can see BTC test the 0.618 Fib and the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) a little lower, which is the natural long-term Support during Bull Cycles and is currently intact (the 1W MA50) since March 13 2023.
** Bearish Divergence **
In addition to the above technical realities, we shouldn't ignore the 1D RSI, which has been on Lower Highs since October 25 2023, i.e. peaked 9 days after Cointelegraph's fake ETF tweet, trading within a Falling Wedge pattern, which with regards to the price's Channel Up, is a Bearish Divergence.
But what do you think? Is a potential ETF approval already priced in, and if yes how low do you expect the price to fall? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Price Analysis Bitcoin surged above the $44,700 resistance on January 2, but this breakthrough turned out to be a price trap as it sharply declined on January 3. Buyers stepped in as prices dipped to the 50-day simple moving average ($40,938), indicating strong bullish defense around the $40,000 mark. The exponential 20-day moving average traded sideways ($42,855), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near neutral suggested restrained price action ahead, within a potential range between $40,000 and $45,879.
A sharp drop below the $40,000 support might signal short-term bearish surrender, possibly pushing the BTC/USDT pair towards the next major support at $37,980.
Buyers could regain control by pushing the price above $45,879. Subsequently, the pair could aim for $50,000.
The recent price fluctuations indicate a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, emphasizing critical support and resistance levels that will dictate the next market move. Breaking through resistance or succumbing to lower support thresholds will be pivotal in determining short-term market sentiment.