BITCOIN repeating the November 2023 Channel and targets $140kBitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up in the past three weeks, basically for the majority of the month of November, following the U.S. elections. It may been struggling currently to break above the $100000 psychological barrier but historical patterns are in favor of a break-out as the very same Channel Up was formed exactly 1 year ago and paved the way for the March 14 2024 High.
** August 2023 vs August 2024 **
As you can see basically, BTC's whole sequence since the August 05 2024 Low is very similar to the one that started again a year before that in August 2023. The similarities are uncanny. Both fractals started with an August decline below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), bottoming inside a Cup pattern that initiated an Accumulation Process. At the same time, the 1D RSI was waving a Bullish Divergence as it has been rising on Higher Lows.
** Golden Cross to November Channel Up **
A 1D Golden Cross was formed right when the November Channel Up patterns emerged. By that time, the price was already on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension of the August decline. At the moment we are on the stage past a 1D MACD Death Cross, which led to a December bullish break-out to a new High.
** Next step = $140k **
A mere test of the 3.0 Fibonacci extension, would translate to a $140k price tag on Bitcoin. Based on the striking similarities and extremely high degree of symmetry with the pattern a year ago, it may become a reality as early as February 2025.
But what do you think? Is symmetry with last year about to kick in and force a bullish break-out to 140k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Btcusdsignals
BTCUSD up Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a 7% correction earlier in the week, dropping to $90,791 on Tuesday before recovering to $97,000 by Friday. On-chain data suggests a modest rebound in institutional demand, with holders buying the dip. A recent report indicates BTC remains undervalued, projecting a potential rally toward $146K. Additional optimism stems from Morocco’s legalization of cryptocurrencies and major players like MicroStrategy and Marathon Digital increasing their BTC holdings.Bitcoin failed to reach the $100K milestone last week and started this week with a decline. It experienced a 7% pullback to a low of $90,791 on Tuesday before recovering slightly to close above $95,500 on Wednesday and hovering around $97,000 at the time of writing on Friday.This week, institutional demand offers a clear perspective on Bitcoin’s pullback and recovery. According to Coinglass Bitcoin Spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) data, the week started with two consecutive days of outflows, totaling $558.1 million by Tuesday, followed by a modest recovery in demand through Thursday. If this inflow trend continues or accelerates, it could bolster the ongoing Bitcoin price recovery.
BITCOIN $150k doesn't seem so unrealistic now, does it?Almost 4 months ago (August 14, see chart below), we made a bold prediction of a Bitcoin (BTCUSD) target at $150000 by early 2025, while the price was still at $60k:
This was received with a lot of skepticism at the time but with the price now almost on the $100k psychological barrier, the idea looks more and more realistic. It is time to revisit this chart and made some slight modifications based on the price action that was followed.
The price is now off the 0.786 - 1.0 Fibonacci range where it consolidated from March 2024 until October 2024. The enormous rise/ break-out is attributed of course to a large extent on the U.S. elections and the euphoria that followed. We are only 1 month outside this range and the price is already much higher.
Last month's candle is very similar to November 2020 and May 2017. In comparison, that was when the most aggressive (parabolic) rallies of those Bull Cycles started. In 2017 from May to December, it was on a 71.5° angle. On the next Cycle from November 2020 to April 2021, it was on a 68.5° angle, i.e. 3° lower. If that's a progression by any means, then we can assume that the 2024 - 2025 parabolic rally could be on a 65.5° angle (-3° from the previous Cycle). That gives a potential target of $300k as early as May 2025, assuming we could have a Double Top Cycle as in 2021.
In any case, it will be interesting to see if the current Cycle also makes a blow-off top (like the last two) outside/ above the Channel Up that started back on the December 2013 High. Unrealistic as it may seem now, the $150k Target is very plausible technically as it is just below the top of that multi-year Channel Up. If the $300k blow-off top (red Arcs) comes, then all the better, but a long-term investor may consider to start taking profits while the price is inside the Channel Up and starts being cautious once we break above it in the red Arcs.
So what do you think? Do you view $150k as technically realistic as this pattern indicates? And if so, can Bitcoin even make a blow-off top near $300k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin tends to falter the day after ThanksgivingThe 124k target remains in play overall, but for now I suspect the shakeout from its 100k milestone has more to offer bears. And while bitcoin prices are showing a nice breakout from a flag pattern on the 1-hour chart, bulls should take note that today (the day after Thanksgiving) tends to be a bearish day on average. And that could make any moves towards 100k tempting for bears to fade into over the near term.
MS
BTCUSD down Bitcoin (BTC) reached a new all-time high of $99,419, just inches away from the $100K milestone and has rallied over 9% so far this week. This bullish momentum was supported by the rising Bitcoin spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETF), which accounted for over $2.8 billion inflow until Thursday. BlackRock and Grayscale’s recent launch of the Bitcoin ETF options also fueled the rally this week. Moreover, the Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered told FXStreet that he expects Bitcoin to reach $125K by the end of this year and $200K by the end of 2025.
BITCOIN (BTCUSD): The First Buying Opportunity
Following our yesterday's support and resistance analysis for BTC,
the market is currently approaching a key daily horizontal support.
After its test, I see a clear intraday sign of strength of the buyers
with a formation of an ascending triangle pattern on an hourly time frame.
I expect a bullish movement at least to 94400
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BITCOIN rejected on the 1st real Resistance of the Bull Cycle.Yesterday's brutal Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rejection caught the majority of the market off guard. There are a few fundamental reasons, there is the exhaustion of the post-election euphoria, there is the psychological weight of the $100000 barrier. However there is one major technical reason that has gone under the radar and we'll explain it to you below.
** The Fibonacci Channel and the 0.236 Fib **
As you can see on this chart, the underlying pattern has been a Fibonacci Channel going through the last 3 Cycles (including the current one). The pattern started with a strong rebound on its bottom (green circle) that formed the December 2013 Top. That Cycle Top was on the 0.236 Fibonacci level of the Cycle and that is a level that rejected rallies during Bull Cycles on June 24 2019 and May 11 2024.
** The '1st Real Resistance of the Bull Cycle' **
That is the Fib trend-line that (more recently) rejected the uptrend on November 22. We can call this the '1st Real Resistance of the Bull Cycle' as this is the first major rejection level that a Bull Cycle faces before the eventual Top. That high during the last 2 Cycles has been on the 0.0 Fibonacci level, technically the top of the Channel (red circles). The red spot on the current Cycle in late 2025 doesn't represent a projection but is an illustration for comparison purposes.
** Top timing and the 1W MA50 **
On a side-note, it is interesting to observe that the duration of each of the past Bull Cycles has been roughly 150 weeks (1050 days) so a repeat of this pattern would give us a High towards the end of September/ early October. It is much better to try to time the High and sell that put an actual price tag on it. Equally interesting is the fact that even though BTC is on a technical rejection, the current rally started on the August 05 2024 Low, exactly on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Technically, as long as this trend-line holds, the cyclical bullish wave should stay intact.
But what do you think? Do you think the 0.236 Fib i.e. the '1st Real Resistance of the Bull Cycle' will extend the correction? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD signalsInterested in weekly BTC/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the bitcoin-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of $93,265 in the first half of the week, followed by a slight decline in the latter half. Reports highlight that Bitcoin’s current level is still not overvalued and could target levels above $100,000 in the coming weeks.
BITCOIN rally cant get caught anymore and SPXRUT ratio shows whyIt's beyond doubt now that Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has started the new Parabolic Rally (PR), technically the most aggressive phase of the Bull Cycle. We've made numerous analyses in the past explaining on time why we expected this break-out to take place after 7 months of accumulation.
What we bring to you today is the SPX/RUT ratio, the correlation of the S&P500 (SPX) and Russell 2000 (RUT) indices against BTC and how it confirms that this rally will now accelerate to a pace that it won't be easy to get caught (i.e. bought).
The SPX/RUT ratio is displayed by the blue trend-line. The ratio is particularly helpful during Bitcoin's Parabolic Rally phase as their correlation is mostly a negative one, meaning when the ratio falls, Bitcoin rises. On this chart, this correlation is present on a cyclical basis. This means that during every Cycle, it displays a behavioral pattern that is common.
The key characteristic here is the Lower Highs pattern that the ratio forms every Cycle around the Halving time. As you can see, when SPX/RUT peaks (red circle) and starts forming Lower Highs, Bitcoin stars its Parabolic Rally (green arc). On the 1st Lower High, BTC's rally is already underway and has entered the stage where due to the sheer buying pressure and aggression, getting an entry is difficult. The Lower Highs on SPX/RUT also signify a shift from big capitalization stocks to low, i.e. an increasing appetite for riskier assets and that transcends to the Bitcoin market as well.
So what do you think? Does the SPX/RUT ratio indicate that we've started the part of BTC's rally that is hard to catch? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Pi Cycle Theory aiming at $120k at least!Following Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) new All Time High in the aftermath of the U.S. elections, we've established on previous posts that we've entered the final year (12 months) of this Bull Cycle. This is clearly visible by the use of the Sine Waves as shown on this 1W chart.
** Pi Cycle **
The new aspect we're bringing to you today is the Pi Cycle indicator, which has proven to be as consistent as any other at projecting the long-term price action of Bitcoin. As you can see every Cycle Top has been considerably above the Top Pi Band (red trend-line) and we're currently trading $30k below where this level is now. This means that it is only a matter of time for BTC to 'attack' $120k and break it.
** 1W RSI kickstarting the aggression **
We are at a point where the new rally phase that started after the price tested, held and rebounded on the 1W MA50 back in early August, will start getting more and more aggressive. The final bullish signal was given last week after the 1W RSI closed above 70.00 (vertical orange dashed line). As you can see, during the previous two Cycles, every time Bitcoin closed the 1W RSI above 70.00, the Cycle peaked 54 weeks later (roughly 365 days). There is no reason to expect otherwise this time also, as this projected date (week of November 24 2025) falls exactly on the Sine Wave's Top.
Notice also that during the most aggressive part of the Parabolic Rally, the 1D MA100 (blue trend-line) tends to Support. And before that, when that crosses above the Bottom Pi band (green trend-line), the indicator gives a confirmed buy signal for the whole Cycle.
** Timing the market is everything **
The question now is how high can the price get? Well according to those estimates, a peak above the Top Pi Band can be anywhere within the $150k - $200k range, and that could be a conservative estimate. But lucky enough, with technical tools like the one we present to you today, we can time the market (thus our exits/ sells) almost perfectly and get out as high as possible, without having an absolute Target in mind.
But what do you think? Are you also expecting the rally to start getting even more aggressive and break above $120k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD SELL NOWBitcoin prices have continued their impressive run today breaching the 90000 mark for the first time. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is now up around 30% since election day and a 121% YTD as the new generations ‘digital gold’ continues its ascent.
The greed around crypto markets is evident at present, can you blame the hodlers? There does seem to be somewhat of a generational shift when it comes to investment flows and this has been reflected in recent data. BlackRocks Bitcoin ETF has now surpassed the holdings of its Gold ETF (NYSE:GLD) and this switch could in part explain the struggles of the precious metal as the new digital Gold grows in popularity. It would be unwise to dismiss this as we have seen in 2024 that the world’s largest cryptocurrency appears to be less volatile than in the past. The reason for this has been touted as institutional adoption which could be part of it.
BTCUSD sell 89400
TP 1 89300
TP 2 89200
TP 3 89100
TP 4 87400
SL @ 91400
NO FINANCIAL ADVICE
BITCOIN Riding the 1DMA50 wave is the best strategy you can haveBitcoin (BTCUSD) has had an enormous bullish break-out to new All Time Highs (ATH) following last week's U.S. elections. The past 2 days have seen this massive rally turn sideways and as always a certain part of market participants have started calling for big corrections or even bear markets. Once again we will let simple charting show why this sideways price action is nothing but a short-term and mostly necessary consolidation.
** November 2020 vs November 2024 **
This analysis is a comparison of BTC's October 2020 - April 2021 rally with October 2024 - today. We've made idea regarding those time periods in the past but this time we bring a more aggressive picture on the 1D time-frame.
As you can see, on both fractals the 1D RSI started with a Channel Up while the price was still trading sideways/ consolidating within the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and the Resistance level. That was the first sign of the upcoming Parabolic Rally, which was confirmed after the price broke above the Resistance.
BTC formed a Channel Up itself and right now we are on the November Bullish Leg and its consolidation phase (circle) that has been evident on both fractals. The 2020 - 2021 rally lasted for 164 days after November 01 and rose by +395%.
** The key role of the 1D MA50 **
Even if these time and price lengths aren't replicated, the key here for traders and investors alike is this: From October 09 2020 up until April 18 2021, BTC neve closed a 1D candle below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). It was the 1D MA50 that fully supported this 6-month rally, giving excellent buy entries for those seeking dip buying opportunities or those who simply wanted to hold onto their BTCs for as high as possible.
** Just ride the wave **
As a result, a viable and confirmed strategy at this stage of the Cycle (if you don't want to trade the volatility and buy low/ sell why) could be to just sell when finally a 1D candle closes below the 1D MA50. This is what we effectively call 'riding the 1D MA50 wave'.
So what do you think? Are you prepared to hold until the 1D MA50 breaks, are you willing to buy every time the price gets close to it, or simply have a different strategy at this starge? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN buying pressure indeed stronger than any Cycle before!Three months ago (August 12, see chart below) we published our view on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) claiming that on the current levels and compared to the relative stages it was in previous Cycles, the bullish trend was stronger than ever before:
At the time the price was 'just' at GETTEX:59K and yesterday it touched the $90000 level. This shouldn't surprise you as the pattern has been 'playing out' in a similar way to both the 2019 - 2021 and 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycles.
In fact it is so strong that we now need to readjust the green parabolic channel of the current (2023 - 2025) Bull Cycle to a more aggressive pattern in order to fit the enormous rally that started in September.
As you can see this comparison with the previous Cycles suggests that BTC can reach at least the -0.618 Fibonacci extension, which is a little over $170000, like the other two did. It also highlights how the current Cycle has been more aggressive than the previous as the price reached the All Time High faster (March 2024) than the previous two but also the amazing symmetry among them as the current (final) parabolic rally that started on the August 05 2024 bottom took place 90 weeks (630 days) after the November 2022 bottom. As you see both in 2020 and 2016 the final parabolic rally also started 90 weeks after their respective Cycle bottoms.
So do you agree that the current rally shows the current buying pressure is more aggressive than in previous Cycles at this stage? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD: Looking for Shorting OpportunitiesBTCUSD has recently experienced a significant rise. Just like gold, after a large increase, a correction is inevitable. Today, I captured some profits from the pullback. Going forward, during the market fluctuations, pay attention to the previous highs or the resistance zone after breaking the highs. If your account allows, you can consider shorting, but be sure to manage the risk carefully.
BTC AND TRUMP+ SUPPLY A HISTORICAL NEW ATH coming HELLO TRADERS
As i can see it time to join the trend BTC Volume is boosting in markets and nailed everywhere we can see technically fib retracement give us a clear view on chart the last dip was already taken and market continues its bull run as it was not like previous halving after dips but for bears it was a nice retracement of near 25000 points If we see geopolitical around the world and current BTC demand vs Supply and Governments and some big companies are accumulating BTC day by day US election will create a spike move in BTC to the given targets if TRUMP get elected Elon Musk is supporting TRUMP Campain with 400+ MILLION $ and watching graphically charts for voting showing a Trump winning rate is growing BTC attracting many other new investors in markets BTC Dominance growing if this happens technically its now breaking down trend line to the up side and holding support above the 60K which is a good sign also for continuations of bull run so don't miss the train we are still early make a proper search before taking any trade it's just a trade idea with good R:R Stay tuned for more updates
BITCOIN Can it repeat last year and reach $140000?It was less than a month (October 14, see chart below) when we updated our old Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Channel Up idea of June 07, calling for the confirmed start of the new Bullish Leg of the Channel Up and setting a medium-term Target of $94500:
New evidence following the U.S. elections suggest that the aggressive nature of the past weekly rally can see BTC target even higher, more specifically the top of the Channel Up by Q2 2025.
As you can see, the price is currently between the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci Channel range, which is technically a neutral zone. However it is considerably below the 0.618 horizontal Fib level applied on a potential +198.10% rise (same as the Sep 2023 - March 2024 rally). This showcases the enormous upside potential that exists within this 2-year Channel Up.
The RSI is about to enter the Overbought Zone (>70.00), which when the previous two Bullish Legs started was also while the price was below the 0.618 Fib (especially in the case of the October 20 2023 candle).
As a result, even though our 94500 medium-term Target stands, for the long-term we are targeting 140000, which is almost at the top of the 2-year Channel Up and marginally below a potential +198.11% rise. Notice that the two lengthy corrections (green Rectangles) within the pattern started only when the RSI formed a Lower High below the overbought level (<70.00).
So what do you think? Is Bitcoin still so undervalued at the moment, despite last week's surge, that it can even hit $140k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSDT: Small Correction Possible Before UptrendBTCUSDT(Day Chart) Technical analysis update
BTC's price has been trading within a broadening wedge pattern for the last 160 days. Recently, it bounced off the wedge's support and is now trading at the GETTEX:59K level. We can expect a small correction before the next upward move, with the price possibly touching the $55K level before resuming a bullish trend.
Regards
Hexa
BITCOIN made new ATH and the rally has only just begun!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is marching towards our 88k short-term Target as we called on October 16 (see chart below):
As the U.S. elections have now been concluded with Trump's victory, we can now once more focus on the long-term horizon, particularly looking 1 year ahead.
Basically, the last time we looked at this pattern was back in August 14 2023 (see chart below), where we used the KSI indicator on the 3W time-frame, which has just made a Bullish Cross, to call the upcoming parabolic rally correctly:
This time we bring to you the last bullish signal of the upcoming multi-month Parabolic Rally, which is the 2W LMACD that is about to form a Bullish Cross. As you can see such a Cross was formed exactly on the November 08 2016 U.S. elections (Trump's 1st win), and a few months before the November 03 2020 elections. What followed was the most aggressive rally (green Rectangle area) of the Bull Phase (green parabolic channel) that started when the price broke above the 2W MA50 (blue trend-line).
As a result, we expect BTC to rise aggressively from here, entering the post-U.S. elections bullish phase that may very well exceed the $100k psychological barrier, as we've shown in previous analyses.
But what do you think? Will the new ATH today spark a full year of Bull for Bitcoin? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Cycle Repeat? 1 Year Bull Run Above ATH Ahead!In the chart above, we’re comparing Bitcoin’s current cycle with its previous cycle.
Bear Run (1 Year): The previous cycle started with a significant bear market that lasted exactly 1 year, characterized by a sharp drop in price from the peak.
Recovery Phase (2 Years): Following the bear run, Bitcoin spent 2 years in a recovery and consolidation phase, gradually building a support base and regaining momentum.
Bull Run Above ATH (1 Year): After consolidation, Bitcoin entered a 1-year bull run that pushed it above the previous all-time high (ATH), setting new records.
Current Bitcoin Cycle: The current cycle appears to be mirroring the previous one closely:
We’ve had a 1-year bear run, which aligns with the pattern seen in the previous cycle.
This was followed by 2 years of recovery, with the price consolidating and gradually strengthening.
If the pattern continues, we could be entering 1 year of a bull run above the previous ATH, starting now or very soon.
Based on this repeating cycle pattern, the current setup suggests that we might have 1 year of a strong bull market ahead, potentially pushing Bitcoin above its previous all-time high by late 2025.
Regards
Hexa
BTCUSDT Bullish Wedge Pattern!BINANCE:BTCUSDT has formed a falling wedge pattern on the 1-hour chart, with strong support at the bottom of the wedge around $67,000. The price has already broken out of the pattern and is now retesting the wedge resistance. Additionally, BTC has crossed above the 100 EMA on the 1-hour chart, indicating potential bullish momentum. We can expect a strong upward move from the current level.
Regards
hexa
When to Book Profits in Bitcoin?Bitcoin technical analysis update
Historically, when Bitcoin's monthly RSI reaches overbought levels, the price tends to drop. In 2013, the RSI peaked at 97, in 2017 it reached 95, and in 2021, it topped at 92.5, forming a higher low divergence on the monthly chart. This time, if the RSI reaches the 90 level, it could signal another peak for Bitcoin. When the RSI reaches the 89-90 range on the monthly chart, it’s typically a good time to start booking profits. Currently, the RSI is at 63, suggesting there is still room for a price increase in the coming months.
Regards
Hexa
BITCOIN fully supported targeting $170k after the ATH breaks.Exactly 3 months ago (August 05, see chart below) when the price was on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), having hit it for the first time since the week of March 12 2003, we claimed that this was the last stand for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) if the market wanted to maintain the Bull Cycle, as based on the previous 3 Cycles, it was the absolute supporting trend-line:
The 1W MA50 eventually held not once but twice and that gave way to a rally that last week tested the 73800 All Time High (ATH). That is incredibly bullish, especially only two days before the U.S. elections, as from the historic patterns we've shown you before, a Parabolic Rally has started after each election.
So according to our August comparison chart, if history is repeated, BTC is looking towards at least the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the ATH, which is roughly a little over $170k.
But what do you think? Are you expecting the ATH test to start a massive rally similar to all previous Cycles? And if so, is $170000 a realistic Target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Closed 2 straight green 1M candles after 7 months!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is closing today the monthly (1M) candle and unless it drops by 7000 in a few hours, it will close the month of October in green. That will be the 2nd straight green 1M candle since March!
This 7 month consolidation period is no stranger to BTC as such patterns, where there are no straight green 1M candles, are standard Accumulation Phases that we see during Bull Cycles. So far on the current one we've had three (including March 2024) and once the market closed 2 straight green 1M candles, it rallied.
The 2019 - 2021 Bull Cycle had three such straight green candle occasions and a very clear Accumulation Phase, while the 2015 - 2018 Cycle had numerous. One thing is clear based on this multi-year chart. When the market closes two straight green 1M candles, it is always a good signal to buy.
But what do you think? Do you find this indicator reliable? Are you buying based on this? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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