Btcusdsignals
Bitcoin next huge volatility is comingBYBIT:BTCUSDT.P
4hr time frame
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Bitcoin is consolidating as a symmetrical triangle and approaching to the end.
It will make continuation no matter break upside or downside.
I personally tend to see it break below this triangle, and do not miss the good opportunity.
BITCOIN Inverse Head & Shoulders gives historic bull runs!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is in the process of completing a peculiar Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern on a bullish slope. This has historically been extremely bullish for BTC. For reference, we post the most recent such formation (June - August 2021) and the whole 2017 Parabolic Rise which contained 5 similar patterns. The technical target is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, currently a little over $38000.
Do you think that's BTC's immediate target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin BTC Next MovePair : Bitcoin BTC
Description :
Consolidation Phase in LTF if Breaks the Upper Trend Line then BUY and If Reject then SELL
Divergence
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Wave and " ABC " Corrective Wave
Break of Structure
Falling Wedge as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame as an Correction in Short Time Frame with the Breakout of the UTL
BITCOIN So much for Resistances...Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke yet another Resistance level, this time the Lower Lows Pivot trend-line that started from the Lower Lows of the Bear Cycle. When this happened during the previous Cycle in early May 2019, BTC skyrocketed to the next Pivot trend-line (upper dashed) and consolidated there before the next one (dotted). Of course the fundamentals aren't the same, and Bitcoin doesn't have the Libra euphoria to ride but still this technical symmetry is an indication.
Notice also now correlated the LMACD sequences are. Both bottomed around the same (2D tf) level at -0.18 to -0.16 and faced Resistance above the 0.00 mark on the previous Highs. Do you expect Bitcoin to continue rising and hit the next Pivot trend-line around $39000? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN What happens if 30k breaks?A lot of market participants are calling for a firm end to Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) rally around the 30k mark. Who can blame them? Bitcoin has been on a very aggressive rally since the start of the year with its price in the low 16000s at the time. As we pointed out at an earlier analysis however, the breaking and closing of a 1W candle above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), set in motion the 2nd phase of this rally towards $30000.
** Former Support Zone turned into Resistance **
This is the level that most are afraid of and rightly so as the broader range of 29500 - 32500 is the former Support Zone (now Resistance) of the Bear Cycle, the Zone that initially supported the first sell-off and closed all candles above it for many months. When it finally gave in in May 2022, BTC entered the 2nd, most aggressive but final phase of the Bear Cycle. In fact, such Zones were present in BTC's previous Cycles. The Resistance Zone in 2019 was within 5800 - 6200 while in 2015 with 350 - 410.
** The 0.5 Fibonacci **
What's perhaps more important than this Zone itself, is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level since the Cycle's top. On the current Cycle that's at $32800. In these past two Cycles, when Bitcoin closed a 1W candle above the 0.5 Fib, the price rallied and hit the 0.786 Fib in 6 and 8 weeks respectively! The 0.786 Fib on the current Cycle is at $50000.
But why do we give more weight to the 0.5 Fib instead of the Resistance Zone around the 30k mark? Because even though in the previous Cycle on the week May 06 2019, BTC broke above it and aggressively extended the rally, in the Cycle before on the week of November 02 2015, it broke (even above the 0.5 Fib) but got sold massively only to close the 1W candle back below it. As a result, a closing above the 0.5 Fib would be a more accurate signal.
Notice also that by the time the post 0.5 Fib rally reached the 0.786 level and peaked, the 1W RSI was at or slightly above 80.00 (obviously massively overbought). A strong medium-term sell/ take profit signal.
But what do you think will happen if 30k breaks? Will it rally to 50k and the 0.786 Fibonacci or pull-back and and consolidate for a multi-week period until it does so? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN closed below the 4H MA50 and can drop lowerBitcoin (BTCUSD) broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) with both the 4H RSI and MACD under their neutral limit. This indicates short-term weakness and as with the February 05 and February 22 4H MA50 break-outs, we may see a re-test of the 4H MA50 as a Resistance where a new rejection may cause a bigger pull-back.
The previous two break-outs made a Lower Low within the 1.618 - 1.786 Fibonacci extensions. Of course the March 10 low on the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) took place in the aftermath of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, a fundamental event outside of the technical sphere. Better us the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as the targeted Support, by early next week it should be within the 1.618 - 1.786 Fib Zone.
The 4H RSI also has a clear Support Zone. Technically a Low within 25300 - 25000 seems a fair technical value with a Higher High at 30000, representing a solid short-term target. Do you also think such a pull-back would be healthy at this stage? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC, Laught now, Cry laterBTC last correction is ending, next is heading to negative value
As we can see, comparing to oil chart during the covid crash, when in extreme market conditions, too much "dumb money" on same side, sharks take use of that to make big money while all the dumb money bets on the same side.
100k+ calls are a good example of the dumb money here in this market conditions when DXY is preparing a next leg to the upside.
I expect same conditions as it happened on oil during 2020, more the price falls, more longs will be added to the market, market will get irrational and drop as much as it needs to get all longs out, bellow 0 is a good number to get everyone out of longs
A good trade now, a short at any price, SL placed above 30k
And TP bellow 10k
Check previous charts as I predicted euro crash before it happened as well during 2021
BITCOIN Cycle comparison and how China bonds initiate new Bull!This is not the first time we incorporate the Chinese bond yields element (CN02Y/CN20Y) to Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analysis, but it is the first time we do so in such an illustrative way by displaying all Cycles from a common starting point. We have made a case in the past how strong of a correlation the Chinese bond market has with Bitcoin and how efficiently that can predict its Cycles.
As you see on the chart, each Cycle portrays a certain period: Red = Cycle 1 -2 (2010 - 2014), Blue = Cycle 2 - 3 (2015 - 2018) and Orange = Cycle 3 - 4 (2019 - now). The CN02Y/CN20Y ratio is displayed in Grey. A key characteristic is that all Cycles have a common start, the bottom of the previous one. We see the effect of diminishing returns as each Cycle is less aggressive (naturally) from the previous one.
We also see the strong connection with CN02Y/CN20Y, as when the ratio starts declining, BTC enters a Bear Cycle, and once the ratio starts rising, BTC initiates a Bull Cycle. Right now it appears that we are at the point where the CN02Y/CN20Y ratio typically peaks and consolidates, which for BTC is translated to the time it breaks above its 1W MA50 and practically starts a new aggressive rally, the first of the new Bull Cycle.
Based on this model, Bitcoin should extend the rally it started this year. Do you agree? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD- Upcoming Big Reversal on Bitcoin!!! hey everyone, BITCOIN spiked up due to collapsed of SVB BANK alongside gold, this is due to the uncertainty that market created. As we are looking for upcoming moves we are expecting prices to be bullish until 28k after we have where we believe that price will reject.
GOOD LUCK AND HAPPY TRADING.
BITCOIN is repeating late January. Small rise and consolidation Bitcoin (BTCUSD) in terms of RSI and MACD on the 4H time-frame, is replicating the formations of late January. We have applied the Pitchfork tool since January's Low and is shows a highly accurate pattern whose Fibonacci levels form Resistance/ Support lines.
The 4H MACD is about to make a Bullish Cross and on January 20 that was the start of a mini price jump before a 3-week consolidation. This is portrayed by the green Rectangle. As long as the 4H MA50 holds (blue trend-line), it is not unlikely to see another mini pump. The Support is located within the 0.236 - 0.382 Fibs, assuming it follows January's sequence.
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Higher Low RSI Set Up on BTCHigher Low RSI Set Up on BTC .
We have to visit an area that we climbed too fast. I believe it will occur at RSI when we will visit.
Rsi going lower when price going higher is a bullish set-up.
Price can move up without putting any lower low when this happens.
I believe 27.500 then 29000 will come.
BITCOIN $50000 is a realistic target by November!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) satisfied those that kept comparing the 2022/23 Cycle to the 2014/15 one as after the a clear rejection on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), it rebounded on the Cyclical Lower Highs trend-line and since last week it closed above it as well as the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
This symmetry is remarkable and it doesn't stop here. Right now we are 101 weeks after the Cycle's true technical top on the week of April 12 2021. Notice that the 2nd week following the first 1W candle closing above the 1W MA50 in 2015 was on the October 26 2015 candle. That was 100 weeks after the Cycle Top!
If this amazing symmetry continues to hold, then we can expect BTC to reach the 0.786 Fibonacci level in 33 weeks from now, i.e. on the 1W candle of November 06 2023. That gives an exact target of $50000.
Do you think this pattern will hold until then? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Knocking on the massive 2-year Liquidity Zone's door.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed last week the first 1W candle above the 1W MA50 since March 2022, ending a full year of intense selling pressure. This closing opens up enormous long-term bullish possibilities as the new Bull Cycle has just started and the first challenge is the massive Cycle Liquidity Zone (green range) that goes back to January 2021!
As you see this zone, which sits around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and within the 0.382 - 0.618 Fib range, has provided long-term Support three times but when 2 straight 1W candles closed below Fib 0.5, it turned into Supply and opened the way for the May-June 2022 collapse.
It is easy to understand therefore the importance of this Cyclical Zone. BTC is about to enter it and most likely will test Fib 0.5 (32750) and provide us with the direction. A double candle closing above it, could be what fuels Bitcoin to even higher Highs. Don't neglect also the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), which most likely will be on the 0.5 Fib by the time of a potential test.
It is worth noting that all the time the Liquidity Zone was tested, were with the Supertrend indicator in red. This time the indicator is in green, showing that Bitcoin has indeed started a new Bull Cycle.
So what do you think this Liquidity Zone test has in store for Bitcoin? Will it be bullish or bearish? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN The party has started and has another 33 months left!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) gives us a very clear picture with regards to its long-term Cycles on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. As you see, once the 1M RSI hit the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of its 10 year Channel Down, BTC bottomed and the new Bull Cycle started.
This Bull Cycle should last for approximately 35 months (1065 days) as this was roughly the duration of the previous two Cycles. Even the Bear Cycles are on almost perfect symmetry as the last three lasted for around 13 months (396 days).
We have also plotted the patterns of the last two Bull Cycles on the current one in order to give an average projection. If the top hit somewhere within Multiple 6 and 7 (Fib MAs), then we can see $150k.
So what do you think about this Cycle symmetry? Has the Bull party just started and has another 33 months to it? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN The S&P/GOLD ratio is leading the way!This is a unique study showing the correlation of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) with the S&P500/Gold ratio (SPX/XAUUSD) displayed by the orange trend-line.
On this 1W time-frame, Bitcoin has broken above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and will attempt to make the first closing above it, in order to confirm the new Bull Cycle beyond any doubt. In the previous Cycle this took place on the week of April 29 2019.
As you can see, the patterns between the two Cycles are identical. Bitcoin tends to peak earlier when the S&P500/Gold ratio makes its last Higher High before it eventually tops after BTC is well within its Bear Cycle. The S&P500/Gold ratio then forms a series of Lower Highs, the second of which is when BTC bottoms (excluding the FTX crash, that would have been the bottom). At the moment we are expecting a Lower Low on the S&P500/Gold ratio in order to price the first High of the first rally of the new Bull Cycle.
Do you think the S&P500/Gold ratio is leading the way for Bitcoin? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Can we finally end the comparisons with August 2015?As everyone is aware, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) made an incredible rebound on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) 5 days ago shortly after forming a Bullish Cross with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). As many analysts have been comparing the current Cycle Bottom to that of 2015, it is perhaps time to call it a day on expectations for a 15.5k Double Bottom as it happened on August 2015.
As we have clearly explained to you and published on our January 21 analysis, expecting a drop like August 2015 wasn't an optimal strategy as it was caused by the Bitfinex flash crash:
As you see, that analysis has quite accurately grasped BTC's movement these past 2 months, projecting also February pull-back. Its first target before another consolidation/ pull-back was around the 0.5 Fibonacci (33k). On the current analysis we will take it a step further, showing another angle by comparing it with the 2015 fractal, excluding of course (as we also told you 2 months ago) the August 2015 Bitfinex crash, which was an unexpected event that distorted the sound technical trend up to that point.
** Similarities between 2023 - 2015 **
First of all, observe how similar the 1D RSI sequences traded. The new rebound started once the 1D RSI broke into the 30.00 oversold barrier. If we also exclude the November 08/09 2022 FTX crash, we can see that on both fractals the range from the prior Low to the Resistance is around +40%. Assuming the Bitfinex crash in August 2015 never happened, and we calculate the impulse rise from the 1D MA200, we get an exact +100% rise on the November 04 2015 High. If this gets repeated today, it gives a $39000 target.
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