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Btcusdsignals

BITCOIN Limited by the weekly candle body Resistance.Many have been focusing in the past days at the inability of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) to close above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Surely that is essential for maintaining the pace of the January - February rally and as we've analyzed recently, it draws comparisons with the past Cycles where they were testing their own 1W MA50. ** Resistance/ Support levels based on the 1W candle closing ** Another, overlooked for sure, aspect on the 1W time-frame the Resistance/ Support levels enforced by the 1W (weekly) candle closings. As you see on this chart, BTC not only failed to close (despite breaking it) above the 1W MA50 in the previous 2 weeks but also failed to close those candles above the 24360 Resistance which has been formed since the weekly candle of July 18 2022. As you see no candle closed above that Resistance level in July - August and the recent failures certainly show its importance. The same can be said about the 1W candle body Support at 18750, which held all weekly closings above it from June until the FTX crash. ** The Vortex Indicator ** As a result, a weekly close above 24360 will achieve a double bullish break-out as not only will it close above the 1W MA50 for the first time since April 25 2022 but also above the most important horizontal Resistance on the 1W time-frame. In order to keep things into a long-term perspective, we have added on this analysis the Vortex Indicator (VI), widely used in previous years, that has been on a Bullish Cross since mid-January. This shows that the new Bull Cycle has started and is still in its early stages. ** Projection ** It appears that even though they are not absolute, the Fibonacci retracement levels will play some part as Resistance levels in this new rally. Once BTC makes this double bullish break-out, we have the 1W M100 (green trend-line) as the next pressure level, hence potential Target and if the second part of the rally is as strong as January, it can make contact with the 1W MA100 around the 0.5 Fibonacci level, which is roughly at $32650. So what do think? Is this 1W candle body Resistance the level to break? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
7
BTC/USD market commentary on 3/3/2023On the daily chart below, we can see that the buyers failed to break the 25K level with conviction and gave way to the sellers. The top came exactly at the previous August 2022 high and the divergence with the MACD signals that the price is likely to fall back to 21500 level which is the first target for the sellers. There was some uncertainty in the market given the talk of seasonal factors skewing the economic data based on the month of January, but since the S&P Global US PMIs are based on the recent month of February and they came out strong, the market got that extra confirmation that things are really turning for the worse. On the 4 hour chart below, we can see that the price has pulled back a bit into the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and it’s now eyeing a breakout to the downside of the counter-trendline. The breakout will be the signal for the sellers to start piling in with the target at 21500. Yesterday, the market got some bad news again from the ISM Manufacturing PMI which showed a notable bounce back into expansion of the “priced paid” sub-index, used as a proxy for inflation. The market is increasingly worrying of another wave of inflation and a more hawkish Fed. These are bearish developments for the crypto market. On the 1 hour chart below, we have a more closer look at the near-term price action. For the sellers the breakout of the counter-trendline is the one to watch, while for the buyers, the breakout above the 24000 level would give some hope for another test of the 25000 top. Tomorrow, we have the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI which is another key economic report. Strong readings will push the prices even lower, while weak data may give the buyers some relief. Recommendations for trading BTCUSD: SELL BTCUSD ( 24.200 - 24.000 ) Stoploss : 24.600 Takeprofit 1 : 22.700 Takeprofit 2 : 21.500 Takeprofit 3 : 21.000 BUY BTCUSD ( 20.800 - 21.000 ) Stoploss : 20.500 Takeprofit 1 : 21.700 Takeprofit 2 : 22.300 Takeprofit 3 : 23.500 Note: Always install TP and SL in all cases
BINANCEUS:BTCUSD
by DNAchampions
BITCOIN 1 year left until the next Halving! Start to DCA!As we left February behind, few realize that there is only 1 year left for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) before the next Halving (no4) as it will experience this supply shock event in March 2024! This 1W time-frame, is a simple illustration of why it is still a good idea to start Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA). ** Similarities with past Cycles. 1W MA50 test ** We see a lot of similarities with past cyclical positioning on this date, particularly with the previous two Cycles. As you see 371 days (53 weeks) before their Halving events, both Cycle 3 on April 29 2019 and Cycle 2 on June 29 2015 were already on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) attempting to break it, but at the time failing to. This is exactly where BTC is at right now. This symmetry is uncanny. Needless to say that it doesn't hold on Cycle 1, which was much more aggressive, hence shorter. ** The 0.618 Fibonacci at the time of the Halving ** It is equally interesting to see that at the time of each Halving, the price was on or marginally above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the Cycle's bottom. In November 12 2012 it was at $12 (marginally above Fib 0.618), in July 04 2016 it was at $690 (little above Fib 0.618) while in May 04 2020 it was at $10000 (exactly on Fib 0.618). This model suggest that if Bitcoin is trading again at least on its 0.618 Fib at the time of Halving 4 (March 2024), then it will be around $40000. Whether it breaks this level earlier and then retreats back to it, this projection doesn't associate with, it simply suggests where it could be at the time of Halving 4. Do you think we will be at $40k then by March 2024? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this analysis!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
4
$BTCUSD BitcoinBitcoin (BTC) price has increased today. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is $23,693.95 today with a 24-hour trading volume of $29,607,630,597. This represents a 1.30% price increase in the last 24 hours and a -3.00% price decline in the past 7 days. With a circulating supply of 19 Million BTC, Bitcoin is valued at a market cap of $457,812,511,932. What is Bitcoin? Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency launched in January 2009 with the first genesis block mined on 9th January 2009. It is a decentralized digital currency that is based on cryptography. As such, it can operate without the need of a central authority like a central bank or a company. It is unlike government-issued or fiat currencies such as US Dollars or Euro in which they are controlled by the country’s central bank. The decentralized nature allows it to operate on a peer-to-peer network whereby users are able to send funds to each other without going through intermediaries. For more information on Bitcoin, do read CoinGecko's How to Bitcoin book. Who created Bitcoin? The creator is an unknown individual or group that goes by the name Satoshi Nakamoto with the idea of an electronic peer-to-peer cash system as it is written in a whitepaper. Until today, the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto has not been verified though there has been speculation and rumor as to who Satoshi might be. How does Bitcoin work? While the general public perceives Bitcoin as some kind of physical looking coin, it is actually far from that. Under the hood, it is actually a distributed accounting ledger that is stored in a form of a chain of blocks, hence the name blockchain. In a centralized system like the ones operated by a commercial bank, given a situation where Alice wants to transact with Bob, the bank is the only entity that holds the ledger that describes how much balance Alice and Bob has. As the bank maintains the ledger, they will do the verification as to whether Alice has enough funds to send to Bob. Finally when the transaction successfully takes place, the Bank will deduct Alice’s account and credit Bob’s account with the latest amount. Bitcoin conversely works in a decentralized manner. Since there is no central figure like a bank to verify the transactions and maintain the ledger, a copy of the ledger is distributed across Bitcoin nodes. A node is a piece of software that anybody can download and run to participate in the network. With that, everybody has a copy of how much balance Alice and Bob has, and there will be no dispute of fund balance. Now, if Alice were to transact with Bob using bitcoin. Alice will have to broadcast her transaction to the network that she intends to send $1 to Bob in equivalent amount of bitcoin. How would the system be able to determine that she has enough bitcoin to execute the transaction and also to ensure she does not double spend that same amount. Here is where mining takes place. A Bitcoin miner will use his or her computer rigs to validate Alice’s transaction to be added into the ledger. In order to stop a miner from adding any arbitrary transactions, they will need to solve a complex puzzle. Only if the miner is able to solve the puzzle (called the Proof of Work), which happens at random, then he or she is able to add the transactions into the ledger and the record is final. Since running these computer rigs cost money due to capital expenditure for buying the rigs and the cost of electricity, miners are rewarded with new supply of bitcoins that is part of its monetary system and some amount of fees paid by the person who wishes to transact (in this case it is Alice). This makes the Bitcoin ledger resilient against fraud in a trustless manner. While it is resilient, there are still some risks associated with the system such as the 51% attack where by miners control more than 51% of the total computation power and also there can be security risks outside of the control of the Bitcoin protocol.
Long
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
1
BITCOIN Breakthrough Fibonacci Grid mapping the new Cycle!This is a unique analysis of Bitcoin displayed on a grid pattern made of the Fibonacci retracement levels (black trend-lines) applied from the top of the previous Bull Cycle to the bottom of the Bear Cycle and the Fibonacci extension levels (blue trend-lines) applied on the Lower Lows and Lower Highs of the Bear Cycle. Using the Symmetrical Pivots as the new Resistance levels/ gaps to be filled, we have mapped a potential course using those as targets on Bitcoin's way to reach its $69000 All Time High by Halving 4 (March 2024). Can that be useful in identifying potential volatility zones and mapping a course on this Bull Cycle that has just started? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
5
BITCOIN The Fear & Greed Index prompts to an immediate rally!On this chart, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is shown on the 1W time-frame using the Fear & Greed Indicator (F&GI). A month ago it broke above 50, which is the neutral level between Fear and Greed. Since then it has stabilized sideways around 55 as the market is split with some being greedy for further rise while others waiting for a good pull-back to enter. Historically however, every time the F&GI broke above 50, the Cycle bottom was in and BTC was at the beginning of an aggressive rally. In both of the previous 2 Cycles, the immediate target before a mid-Cycle pull-back was the 0.786 Fibonacci (green flag). This level on the current Cycle is at $50000! Do you think this will be next? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
7
BITCOIN Three Ph-Model started a new mega Cycle. $280k possible?This is a very radical approach to Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycle Theory as it expands on the notion that BTC has so far had only two (mega) Cycles instead of the traditional view of four (smaller ones), which is an idea we have analyzed quite a few times in the past. Radical but as the analysis shows not unrealistic, since each Cycle shares common parameters with the other one that haven't been broken. ** The Pivot line and the Three Phases ** As this 1W chart shows, each Cycle has a Pivot trend-line, which is the essence of the model as it is the piece that is holding together the three different Phases. Those (mega) Cycles start with the Take-off phase (blue Triangle), a rally which is the most aggressive part of the Cycle. The Pivot line is the Support during the Take-off Phase. Then with the 1W RSI curving, it transitions to the Expansion phase (green Arc), which is also rally but less aggressive that eventually forms the top of the Cycle. The Pivot line is the Resistance during the Expansion phase. The third and final phase starts after the Cycle top, the Correction phase (red Channel Down), which is the pull-back of those tow rally phases that finds Support on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. Towards the end of Correction phase, the 1W RSI almost flattens as it turns sideways at the lowest level of this three-phase Cycle. This is the Accumulation period where investors start buying Bitcoin again on those low prices. ** Fibonacci levels ** Apart from the horizontal Fibonacci levels, the most important of which is the 0.236 Fib that offers Support on the Correction phase, we have incorporated the Time Fibs that assist at providing a better perspective as to which part of the Cycle we could approximately be at. As you see, between Fib 0.5 - 0.618, the Expansion phase's first rally starts and after Fib 0.786 the final rally of the Expansion phase takes place. Based on this model, Bitcoin is on Level Zero (circle) which is the starting point of the Take-off phase, meaning that we are starting the Third ever Mega Cycle. As for what the top of this new Take-off phase might be? The December 2017 top of that Take-off phase was marginally above the -0.236 Fibonacci extension of the Cycle before it. The new -0.236 Fib is around $280000. Do you agree? What are your thoughts on that? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
23
BTCUSD ( High Probability BUY Setup SOON )* Here we can see clearly from our analysis if BTCUSD don't break our support trend line, we're going to be looking for BUY Setups in coming days & weeks, * If we see a down trend & it breaks our support trend line, we believe it's going to be forming Inverse Head & Shoulder Reversal Pattern ( VvV ) before the big BULL run for BTCUSD this Summer, * As for us we won't be looking to SELL BTCUSD this coming days or weeks, instead we'll be waiting for the BULL run on our favourite Crypto Currency to trade, * We're using H4 time frame for a clearer view of our analysis, hence we can't predict the duration of our analysis to occur on the charts, * Keep a close eye on Crypto Currency King, * Happy pip hunting traders, * FX KILLA.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FX-PIPHUNTER
4
BTCUSD 5mins scalping long entryHello traders, This is my second post today. Now we will look at COINBASE:BTCUSD . After waiting for a long time today, I finally missed the 5mins shorting opportunity as I was away from the system. But it met my profit target as I expected. But even if that opportunity is gone, now there is another opportunity to take a long entry from 24079.50 to 24291.00 . If this entry is suitable for you then analyze and get down to the long trade. Trade according to your qualifications Thanks & Regards, Alpha Trading Station Disclaimer: This view is for educational purpose only & any stock mentioned here should not be taken as a trading/investing advice. We may or may not have position in the stocks mentioned here. Please consult your financial advisor before investing. Because Price is the "King of Market".
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by AlphaTradingStation
BITCOIN Amazing Channel and Time Fibonacci reveals the next Top!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is again attracting a lot of interest as it recovered the recent pull-back and even made a new weekly high. Those who follow us over the years know that through fractal and Cycle comparisons we have managed to identify key runs before they happen. ** Hitting the 1W 50 for the first time in 11 months ** Now, as BTC just hit its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and is attempting a closing above it for the first time since late March 2022, the new Bull Cycle is starting on a V-shaped recovery. Using the Fibonacci Channel levels and the Fibonacci Time extensions, we have identified a unique Cycle combination that can show where this Cycle's Top could be and it has never failed in Bitcoin's history. ** Fibonacci Channel ** By applying the Fibonacci Channel from the bottom of the 2011 (November) Bear Cycle to the tops of the 2013 (December) and 2017 (December) Bull Cycles, we see that the bottom of the 2014 Bear Cycle was on the 0.618 Fibonacci (green circle). The bottom of the next 2018 Bear Cycle was on the 0.5 Fibonacci (blue circle). We get the exact same results if we apply the Fibonacci Channel on the bottom of the 2015 (August) Bear Cycle to the tops of the 2017 (December) and 2021 (November) Bull Cycles. 2020 bottom near the 0.618 Fibonacci (green circle) and bottom of the next 2022 Bear Cycle near the 0.5 Fibonacci (blue circle). ** The Time Fibonacci extensions and Halvings ** If we apply the Time Fibonacci approach on the first two Halvings (1 & 2) we wee that the December Top of the 2017 Bull Cycle was on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. We get the exact same result if we apply this metric on Halvings 2 & 3. The November 2021 Bull Cycle Top was on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. Both Tops formed within 510 - 530 days from their last Halving. ** Where can the new Top be? ** If we apply the same methodology on the February 2019 bottom and November 2021 top, we see that consistent with the previous Fibonacci Cycles, the November 2021 bottom took place on the 0.618 Fibonacci Channel retracement level. If the pattern is completed the same way as the previous two, then the Top of the Bull Cycle that has just started should be at the top of the Channel (Fib 0.0) around the 1.382 Time Fibonacci extension from the Halvings. This gives a rough estimate of $120000 byAugust 2025! Do you agree with the results that this approach that has never failed in history, gives? If not what is your expected top for this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
16
BITCOIN The Gaussian Channel, last barrier before the new rallyBitcoin (BTCUSD) has been pulling back since the start of the month as it came close to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) but as it failed to break it, it got rejected. This is putting a pause to the January rally and on the 1W time-frame a very interesting pattern is emerging. Based on the Gaussian Channel, this is a recurring pattern, a formation which combined with the Fibonacci retracement levels, has been seen as the start of both previous Bull Cycles (2015 and 2019). ** Triangle into Cup recovery and the importance of the 0.382 Fibonacci ** First of all, as you see, all Bear Cycles have started with a Triangle pattern and after the Support of the first Bear Low broke, they collapsed aggressively. As the Bear Cycle bottomed, the collapse started to reverse within a Cup pattern (U-shaped recovery). A break and 1W candle closing above the 1W MA50, confirmed the extension of the initial bottom rally into the new rally of the Bull Cycle. Notice how the 0.382 Fibonacci level was the 'Support of the first Bear Low' we talked above and once it broke caused a strong spike and later served as a Support itself. ** The Gaussian Channel and the LMACD ** This time the Gaussian Channel's bottom is exactly on the 1W MA50 with the 0.382 Fib not that far above them. As a result a break into the Gaussian Channel this time will result into all major Resistances breaking almost at once. Also it is very interesting to look at the 1W LMACD and how every time BTC tested the 1W MA50, it was on the 0.00 level. Every time it closed above the 1W MA50, the LMACD broke above the 0.00 as well. ** Where to buy now? ** It is worth noting that after the July 2015 1W MA50 rejection, the price fully filled the gap of the January 2015 Bear Bottom. But that was entirely due to the Bitfinex hack on August 17 2015. Had it not been for this, the pull-back would have been contained on the 0.236 Fib or at the very worst, the 0.118 Fib (green level). In April 2019 for example, during that 1W MA50 rejection, the price was supported by the 0.236 Fib. For comparison purposes, the current 0.118 Fib is at $18800. See the chart below, we have made the comparison of the FTX and Bitfinex crashes back in November 14 when the market was at its highest Fear level and nobody expected a rebound. So far it has been playing out very accurately: It is easy to understand that we are near a critical Resistance cluster, which if broken will start the next rally phase and Bitcoin won't look back. Are you waiting for max pain at $18.8k to get in or you have bought already? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
12
BITCOIN The Pitchfork approach that reveals the Bull Run!Why don't we see the Pitchfork tool applied to Bitcoin (BTCUSD)? We show on today's analysis that this often very overlooked technical tool has been particularly spot on at identifying BTC's Bull Runs. It is a simple application and we will keep the commentary that way. As you see on this 1W time-frame, we have applied the Pitchfork from Bitcoin's first Low to the 2014/15 Bear Cycle. As you see the Fibs drawn, provide an excellent framework for the majority of the Bull Cycle's trajectory: * The 2015-2017 Bull Run was almost entirely within the 0.5 (dashed blue trend-line) and 1.0 (solid blue) Fibs, until it broke in the final month of the Bull Cycle to peak on the FibMA Multiple 7. * The 2019-2021 Bull Run started off more aggressively as it was initially hyped by the Libra news but later corrected within the 1.5 (dashed black) and 2.0 (solid black) Fibs. * The new Bull Run has started after the November (FTX crash) bottom and is now within the 2.5 (dashed orange) and 3.0 (solid orange) Fibs. This should technically by the new Channel Up for the new Bull Run. It appears that each Bull Run is a whole 1.0 Fib level lower than the previous one. This is consistent with Bitcoin's Theory of Diminishing returns over time. Also all bottoms hit or came extremely close to the 1W MA350 (bold green line). We can estimate in addition a rough 121 week (847 day) time range from the bottom of the Cycle to the Top of the top of the next one. This gives us a projection for the next Cycle Peak on March 2025. As for what price the actual Top can hit? Moderate scenario the Multiple 5 (orange) and aggressive scenario the Multiple 7 (red). Do you agree with the conclusions of this Pitchfork approach? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
31
BITCOIN Death Cross targeting the 1D MA50 based on the DXYBitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to form a Death Cross pattern on the 4H time-frame, which is when the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) thus making short-term selling pressure stronger than buying. The pattern as you see is a Channel Down ever since the February 02 High and the Support Zone is 20700 - 20420. This is where the 1D MA50 (green trend-line) is headed to, which is Bitcoin's long-term Support during uptrends. At the moment as you see the 4H MA200 is acting as the Resistance. But it is the developments on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), the chart on the right, that is spearheading this move on BTC. It just formed a 4H Golden Cross (the opposite of the Death Cross = bullish) and as shown, the price is breaking above the Channel Down that has been trading in since the November 21 High. A break above the 103.980 Resistance (1), most likely targets Resistance 2 (105.650). The 1D RSI being on Higher Highs while the price was on Lower Highs (i.e. a Bullish Divergence) is evidence that a break-out is about to take place. In conclusion, a direct hit of BTC within the 20700 - 20420 Support Zone and more importantly on the 1D MA50, would be the most optimal medium-term buy entry, especially if this is coupled with the 1D RSI turning oversold (30.000 level). Would that be a good enough level for you to buy for the next wave upwards? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
12
BITCOIN Alignment of Cycles is the Ultimate Cheatsheet!We have done similar studies before, aligning past Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Cycles to get a projection of the current one. We have used Halvings, Peaks, Bottoms etc but this is the first time that we don't just use everything into one mega analysis, but also incorporate the Fibonacci retracement and extension levels that show not only the Buy Zones put also the peak projection, making this study the Ultimate Cheatsheet! ** Cycles Tops and Bottoms ** The chart is pretty much self-explanatory. The time-frame on the 1W (weekly) and the starting point of all Cycles (we use the past 3, the first one is too aggressive to be relative for conclusion on this study), is their respective Tops/ Peaks. We didn't distort any Cycle, all are just they way given by the Bars Pattern on their log scale. The orange trend-line represents Cycle 2022/23 (the current one), the black trend-line represents Cycle 2018/21 and the blue trend-line represents Cycle 2014/17. ** Cycle Convergence - Divergence and the Buy Zones ** As you see, their alignment during their Bear Phase of their Cycles is remarkably tight, as the don't diverge by as much as one would expect. With the use of the Fibonacci levels, taking as Fib 0.0 the bottom of the 2018/21 Cycle (Black), we can designate two Buy Zones: The first one within Fib 0.382 - 0.236 and the Ultimate within Fib 0.236 - 0.0. As you see the current Cycle made a bottom and bounced just over the Ultimate Buy Zone. What's really interesting, is that the 2014/17 (Blue) and 2018/21 (Black) Cycles always converged after a divergence, which simply indicates the standard nature of the course of each Bull Cycle. We have to mention at this stage that the big divergencies of the 2018/21 Cycle was first on the April - June 2019 rally due to Facebook's Libra enthusiasm/ speculation and second September - March 2020 due to the massive money printing and rescue packages to stimulate the economy from the COVID lockdowns. ** The amazing Halving Symmetry ** We have also incorporated the Halvings and as you see the symmetry is astonishing as all there are within a 2 month range. Halving 4, which is the next one is in the middle (May 2024), Halving 3 is on the left (May 2020) while Halving 2 is on the right (July 2016). This is just another demonstration of Cycle stability. Keep in mind that the Halving events are major cyclical events for Bitcoin as they cause a Supply Shock, thus stimulating the Demand. It is no coincidence that the Phase of the Parabolic Rallies has always started after the Halving. ** Where will this Cycle Peak? ** As for the projected peak, since every Cycle offers diminishing returns, the Peak is (or should be) lower each time. The 2014/17 Cycle (Blue) peaked on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension and the 2018/21 (Black) peaked on the 1.618 Fib. The next range in line is the 1.382 - 1.236 Fib Zone, which is approximately within $100k - $132k. A projected path (orange dotted line) to this Target Zone doesn't again diverge much from the other Cycles. We have to also account for outside fundamentals/ news, moving the projected trend higher if news like those in 2019 (Libra) or 2020 (stimulus) inject a new wave of enthusiasm into the market. For that reason, we have added a projected path to an extremely positive scenario (see chart below) than trends in the middle of the Black and Blue Cycles and shows a Peak above Fib 1.618, roughly above $250k. Unrealistic or not, it is a projection taken from this specific model. Do you think this is the Ultimate Cheatsheet for Bitcoin or not? Feel free to let us know why in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
7