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Btcusdsignals

BITCOIN Bottom completed. Bull Flag about to start the 30k rallyBitcoin (BTCUSD) is having a red week so far (1W time-frame) following last week's rebound. The worse than expected CPI is leading this pull-back fundamentally. Technically though, the price remains both above the Support provided by the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) and the Channel Down that started after the mid-August High. As long as no further Low is made, this Channel can be technically considered a Bull Flag, and is consistent with both prior Cycle bottom sequences. ** Past Cycles bottom formation ** As you see on this chart, the pattern that emerged after each prior Cycle bottom, was this Bull Flag. The price basically started to break above the Flag when a 1W MA50/ 1W MA100 Bearish Cross (1W MA50 in the blue trend-line crossing below the 1W MA100 in the green trend-line). Once the 1W MA50 break, the price never looked back and the parabolic rally of the new Bull Cycle took off. The 1D MA200 (black trend-line) is the first level of Resistance on the medium-term and is currently around 29800. The importance of this is high because on those past Cycles, every time the 1D MA200 crossed below the 1W MA100 to form a Bearish Cross, the Cycle's Bottom was priced. ** The Fibonacci levels as Targets ** Back to the 1W MA50, once it broke, the price reached the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which was just above the 1W MA100, very quickly in fact in a matter of 3 weeks. The next Target on the medium-term (and Resistance) for both prior Cycles, was the 0.786 Fibonacci. In 2016 it was hit in 32 weeks after the 0.5 while in 2019 in just 6 (but that was a rapid growth based on, among others, the Libra fundamentals). ** What's next? ** All the above suggest that if the same cyclical pattern continues to play out, Bitcoin should complete the Bull Flag now and start rising as the 1W MA50/100 Bearish Cross has been formed. A realistic technically target towards the end of the year would be the 0.5 Fib at $33900, where by that time it can make contact with the 1W MA50 potentially. We can then expect a 0.786 Fib test at just above $49000 by Q2 2023. All this calculated as the average projection of the past 2 Cycles. Do you agree that this Bull Flag, following the MA50/100 Cross is about to start a rally to test the August High and then $33900 before the year is over? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
32
BITCOIN The 3D cheat-sheet approaching a major Bull break-out!This is an analysis of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the alternative but highly informative 3D time-frame where we can claim that its cyclical behavior is most accurately displayed. As always, the MA50 is shown with the blue trend-line, while the MA200 with the orange trend-line). ** Bear Cycles & the Death Cross ** First let's start with the Bear Cycles. As you see, when the 3D MA50 crosses below the 3D MA200 and forms the popular Death Cross pattern, the market tends to give the last warning of a huge sell-off. On all Cycles, that was the last drop before the Cycle forms its market bottom. ** Accumulation and MA50 break-out ** Then on a Higher Lows trend-line as Support and the MA50 as Resistance, the market enters its Accumulation Phase (blue Triangle pattern), until the MA50 breaks and it officially starts rising on the new Bull Cycle. At the moment, with the MA50 at 25500 and declining rapidly, BTC is at the closest it has been to it since May 04. On top of that, the 3D RSI just broke above its Bear Cycle Lower Highs trend-line, just like it did on January 04 2019. ** Parabolic Rally above the MA200 ** So what now? Well if the price breaks above the MA50, chances are that Bitcoin will start rising (not necessarily as aggressively as in April - June 2019, which was based on outside factors as well), assuming that the macro-economic conditions don't get worse. Then, a new break above the 3D MA200 will most likely place BTC on the infamous Parabolic Rally course of the Bull Cycle. Notice how in the previous two Cycles, when the price broke above the MA200 and the Golden Cross was formed (MA50 crossing over MA200), the price used the MA200 as the Support of the Parabolic Rally (excluding of course the COVID crash in March 2020, which is a once in a life-time event). So what do you think about those 3D patterns and conditions? Does it offer a comprehensive road-map of this new Cycle and if yes, are you expecting a strong rally when the MA50 breaks? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
55
BITCOIN Testing the most important long-term Resistance levels!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is currently on a strong +17% four day rally, the strongest since July 29. By doing so, it is about to test the important short-term Resistance of 22000, formed off the August 24 High. There is however a trend-line and cluster of critical Resistance levels on the long-term as well that the price is about to hit, and outweigh by far the short-term technicals. ** The ATH trend-line and Bullish - Bearish extremes ** That is the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the November 10 2021 All Time High (ATH). Basically this is the Lower Highs trend-line of the Channel Down pattern (log scale) that has been dominating the price action for most of the past 10 months. As you see on this 1D chart, the price has broken outside of this Channel Down twice these past 10 months. Once on March 22 where it made a Bullish Extreme but still was contained below the 1.382 Fibonacci extension and once on June 18 where it made a Bearish extreme but still was contained above the -0.382 Fibonacci extension. ** The 1D MA100 ** The last time BTC attempted a break above the ATH trend-line was on the August 15 High where it wasn't just rejected on the top of the Channel Down but also on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). Excluding the Bullish Extreme, the price has been trading below the 1D MA100 since December 03 2021 with three clear rejections on it. At the moment, the 1D MA100 is trading exactly on the ATH trend-line and has been doing so since the August 15 rejection. It is obvious that at the moment, this is the most important Resistance Zone that BTC is facing. A break and close above it though doesn't 'guarantee' the end of the long-term Bearish Trend as that took place when it broke on March 22 but was still rejected on the 1.382 Fib ext. As you realize, only a break above the 1.382 Fib turns the odd in favor of a long-term Bullish reversal and can sustain a rally invalidating bearish bias of March 29 - April 05. On a different occasion, the 10 month Channel Down will continue to dictate the trend. But what do you think is going to happen? Will a close above the ATH line and the 1D MA100 accumulate enough buyers to finally push above the 1.382 tolerance level and into a new Bull rally or we will get again rejected and stay within the long-term Channel Down? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
4
BITCOIN The Double Bottom effect on Cycles. Huge rally starting?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) made a Low two days ago and today we are seeing a strong rebound on the biggest 1D candle (so far) since July 27. Based on the Cyclical Double-Bottom Effect, we can argue that this low is a hit on the Double Bottom zone of the June 18 market Bottom. What is that effect? Well it appears to be not just a Theory but a pragmatic phenomenon that has been seen on every Cycle bottom on Bitcoin's past three Cycles. On this 1D chart, you can see the current Cycle on top of the previous ones for a more effective illustration of the Double-Bottom effect. The range of the Double-Bottom is the green zone. Cycle 1 is displayed with the black trend-line making the 2011 Double Bottom, Cycle 2 with the blue trend-line making the 2015 Double Bottom and Cycle 3 in the orange trend-line making the 2019 Double Bottom. As it is shown, the Double Bottoms are fairly structured in the same way on each of the past Cycles and straight after each one was formed, a strong rally followed. The past cycles have been adapted in order to fit the Green Range, which is formulated by the current Cycle. Still, the bullish trend following each Double Bottom is obvious. This study isn't designed to show the time-length, but rather the bullish move that follows. You can view each Double Bottom plotted on top of each other, with the current Cycle being the green trend-line, in the chart below: So what do you think? Has the market double bottomed and if so, based on the above, are we about to witness a strong multi-month rally as the new Bull Cycle is starting? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
27
BITCOIN extends its bearish trend. Our options on the short-termBitcoin (BTCUSD) had yet another strong 4H red candle, consistent to the past two hard selling sequences since the August 15 High. Today's post is an extension to the short-term analysis we made a few days back. ** The selling patterns ** As mentioned, the time-frame here is the 4H (4hours). As you see, since the price broke above the former Triangle, it failed to stay above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and eventually yesterday made that strong 4H sell-off. The common characteristic with the previous two selling patterns that were within the Triangle, is that it did so when the price broke above the Higher Lows trend-line (bold dotted lines) that was supporting until then. ** Fibonacci targets ** The target yesterday was once again the 1.618 Fibonacci extension as with the previous two sequences. If a new Higher Lows trend-line emerges, then in line with the previous sequences, we should be expecting an upwards consolidation that could reach the 1.236 Fib. ** The former Lower Highs trend-line supporting ** What's really interesting is that since BTC broke above the former Triangle, its Lower Highs trend-line has been tested twice (including yesterday) and held. Can that turn into a Support and provide a new trend? Well this is the short-term and we have to keep looking into it and the every-day changes on indicators continuously. If that former Lower Highs line breaks, expect another flash crash, this time to test the ultimate Support level of the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line). ** Neutral zone, Break-out Buy and a very consistent RSI ** We consider the range within the 4H MA50 and the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) as neutral space, thus a 'no-trade zone'. On the other hand, consider buying if the price closes above the MA100 and target the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Among the fuss, just check how well-structured the 4H RSI has been, with a clear Higher Lows line providing a solid buy entry and a Resistance providing a sell. So do you think Bitcoin is up for yet another Higher Lows consolidation until it breaks downwards again or an MA100 break will save the day? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
5
BITCOIN Bullish Cross on MACD similar to the 2018/19 bottomBitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to form a Bullish Cross on the MACD (1D time-frame) as it trades below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The last time it did a similar formation on those levels while Bitcoin was recovering from a market low was on February 07 2019, during the December 2018 - March 2019 Cycle Bottom formation. What followed was an instant price rebound which around 10 days it broke above both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA100 and a little after 2 weeks it tested the Bottom Fractal's Resistance. Once BTC broke above that Resistance it instantly broke above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) also and the Q2 2019 rally, the first of the previous Bull Cycle was already well underway. At the moment it appears that we are exactly on that kick-start point, supported on the 12° angle Higher Lows trend-line, with the Supertrend indicator flashing red. Do you think that this emerging MACD Bullish Cross, can repeat the post February 2019 sequence? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
29
BITCOIN Short-term outlook doesn't look promising. Unless...This analysis is on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 4H time-frame where we're looking on its short-term perspective. As you see since the August 15 High and the rejection on the 1D MA100 (red trend-line), the trend has been bearish and using the Fibonacci Channel with its extensions, better grasps the movement. The price has been closing below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) since August 16 and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) since August 18. Every major drop (black arrows) was preceded by a Channel Up/ Bear Flag pattern, where sellers accumulated. It appears that we are in such a Flag currently that is about to break downwards. On top of that, BTC failed to break above the Lower Highs trend-line tha started on the August 15 High and last time that happened (August 26), the new drop happened. We are though very close to the Channel's Bottom (Lower Lows trend-line), which broke momentarily on Aug 28, so a new drop may target the -0.5 Fibonacci extension. On the bull side, the 4H RSI has been on Higher Lows since August 19, also printing an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. A candle close above the 4H MA50 should be enough to accumulate buyers into targeting the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). On the longer-term, only a weekly closing above the 1D MA100 seems capable to restore the bullish trend. Also, consider this Higher Lows zone since June 30, illustrated by the dashed lines on the chart below (I didn't include this on the main chart to make it less messy): Which direction do you think Bitcoin will follow? Break above the 1D MA50 or new drop? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
5
BITCOIN Recovering the 1D MA100 is key for $30000 as in 2019The trading set-up on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) since the June 18 low looks a lot like the price action that followed the December 15 2018 Bottom of that Bear Cycle. There is no need to overanalyze this as a simple comparison of the two charts of 2022 and 2019 would suffice. As you see in 2019 when the price broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it entered the final stage of Accumulation inside a Channel Down before the first rally of the new Bull Cycle. The pull-back was contained above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Once the price broke above the 1D MA50 but more clearly above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), there was considerable buying accumulation that in just over one month broke also above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) to reach the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. This Fib is on today's set-up around 32700. The 1D MACD patterns so far are fairly similar. One more Bullish Cross on the MACD may confirm the bias to break above the 1D MA50 initially. Do you think that as long as the 0.786 Fib holds and the 1D MA100 breaks, BTC can reach 32700? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
9
BITCOIN Will the pivot line hold again?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has completed nine days below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as it failed to capitalize on last week's slow rise and got rejected on Friday just before breaking it following Powell's comments on the Fed's outlook. This downtrend has started on August 15, after the price got rejected exactly on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The last time we saw a similar rejection was on March 02. BTC also suffered a short-term pull-back, before rebounding again to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and eventually starting the new selling sequence. A key during the Nov 2021 - March 2022 phase was the Pivot trend-line (1) which at first was a perfect Resistance but then on the shorter-term turned into a Support, which gave the critical bounce to the 1D MA100 and the 1D MA200. We have an identical trend-line (2) since March that has been acting as a Resistance since July 20 and after breaking, has held so far twice, with the first bounce giving the 1D MA100 test. If it holds, there are high chances of starting a new rebound towards the 1D MA200. If not, the fractal model is invalidated and should put the 1W MA300 to test. Notice also that the Ichimoku Cloud is now on green territory. When that happened on March 25, Bitcoin had already started the rebound to the 1D MA200. So do you think the Pivot trend-line will hold? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
11
BITCOIN Cyclical 1D MA200 model shows bottom & bullish break-outBitcoin (BTCUSD) tends to have a constant cyclical behavior, repeating certain aspects over and over again during each Cycle. The model that I will quickly analyze on today's post is no different and it involves the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). ** Similar dips and break-out durations ** On this 1W time-frame, you can see that during the past two Cycles, the price dipped -65% (Jan 12 2015) and -63% (December 10 2018) after the last rejection on the 1D MA200, before making the Bottom of the Bear Cycle. Also, the times from the rejections until the price broke again above the 1D MA200 are comparable, as it respectively took 33 weeks (231 days) to break above it on June 29 2015 and 36 weeks (252 days) on the April 01 2019 1W candle. As you see, those are roughly identical numbers and continue to hold during the current Cycle as well, as the drop from the last 1D MA200 rejection (March 28 2022 candle) to the June 13 2022 Low, has also been -63%, making it a bottom according to the model. If this process is fulfilled, then the price will break above the 1D MA200 again by the week of December 05 2022 the latest. ** Williams Alligator showing the Bottom is in ** An additional indicator that brings value to this model, is the Williams Alligator used on a 3W time-frame here. As shown during the past two Cycles, the market Bottom was made right when the green trend-line (lips) crossed below the blue trend-line (jaw). Similarly when the green trend-line crossed back above the blue, BTC had already started rising into the new Bull Cycle and that was an indication that the first rally of the Cycle made its top. So do you think that this model will be repeated once more, meaning that the market has already bottomed and Bitcoin will break above the 1D MA200 by the week of December 05 2022 the latest? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! P.S. Because the chart has the added element of the Williams Alligator plotted and pinned to scale Z, it is not constant and may appear distorted based on your screen's/ browser dimensions. The original looks like this below, so if yours doesn't, adjust the vertical/ horizontal axis in order to make it look like this and better understand what is illustrated: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
20
BITCOIN 1W MA50/100 Cross! No better time to buy than now!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) saw a strong pull-back last week after it failed to break above its 1D MA100 and got rejected. We've already addressed that but what we do need to update you on is the fact that the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is crossing below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). This is technically a Bearish Cross but as the chart shows, during the previous two Bear Cycles, it has always been a signal that the price has formed its Cycle low and that BTC was inside the Accumulation Zone leading to the new Bull Cycle. It is evident that the current price action is very similar to those of February 2019 and April 2015 where BTC made its 1W MA50/100 Bearish Cross following a pull-back. With the 1W MA300 supporting, we may be closer to a 2015 type price action than 2019. In any case, there is another important set of indicators showing that the bottom is in. First the 1W LMACD making a Bullish Cross. Every time it made this formation after touching the -0.20 level, BTC was well inside the Accumulation Zone of the new Bull Cycle. Secondly, the RSI on the 1M time-frame hit and is rebounding on the historic Lower Lows trend-line (Support). Every time this happened the Cycle bottom was in and when the RSI broke above its MA (yellow trend-line), a new rally (first of the Bull Cycle) started above the 1W MA50. Do you agree that this indicator combo is enough evidence that the time to buy is now? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
25
BTCUSD Miner Capitulation ended! Best Buy but eyes on the USD.Two days ago the Hash Ribbon on the well-known indicator flashed a buy signal, technically ending the Miner Capitulation! What does this mean for Bitcoin (BTCUSD)? Well historically, Miner Capitulation periods have occurred on absolute market bottoms (or lows during uptrends), providing the most attractive buy entries. The 'blue' buy signal on this indicator practically marks the end of this period, which gives the most optimal entry for a long-term investor. With the price being within the Buy Zone that comes all the way from the previous Bear Cycle bottom, still on Higher Lows, continuing to imitate the December - March 2019 bottom formation process, we may be in a spot similar to Jan 12 2019, when the price broke below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) after having marginally broken above it previously, stayed below for 2-3 weeks but when it recovered it again, it didn't break it for months, starting the first rally into the new Bull Cycle. BTC is again currently below the 1D MA50 after trading above it for the majority of August. A break above it again, could be the last we see for months, initiating the new rally. The only objection we have against this pattern getting repeated, is the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) displayed by the green trend-line, which has been rising aggressively since mid August and is something that isn't consistent with Bitcoin rallies. Technically, BTC doesn't rise when the USD rises as well. Check the recent history where all major bottoms (Dec 2019 and March 2020) have coincided with the USD trading at least sideways. Do you think however that the Miners Capitulation ending can provide a boost strong enough on its own regardless of the rising USD? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
12
BTCUSD: Growth possible soonThe price of BTC continues to decline within the descending momentum. Now it is fashionable to publish information about mass liquidations of traders' positions and, in general, liquidation is an excellent tool for market makers to write off liabilities and generate profits for exchange and brokerage institutions. Paying attention to the news feed, one cannot help noticing how very often the information about the price reaching historical lows is mentioned soon. I am not sure that with the current decline it would be logical, because it would be much more interesting to continue the upward correction and liquidation of traders, who took a short position in the hope to close them below $17k. After such a scenario, it would be logical to reverse the price and put a fat point on the breakdown of $17k, when the main mass would give up the idea of updating the lows. In general, for now, I'm set to buy at $19k to $20k, with certain signs of weak seller pressure. In addition, many altcoins are also building a similar structure, which hints at an upside shot soon. Be careful and follow market dynamics.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by HurricaneCapital
2
BITCOIN CONSOLIDATING & PREPARING FOR UPSIDE.BITCOIN CONSOLIDATION & PREPARATION FOR A MILD BOUNCE FROM THE ASCENDING TRENDLINE. Bitcoin has been consolidating on the ascending trendline which had been established over the past 2 months since its price bottomed in mid-June. The move looks to have been completed & relief on CAPITALCOM:BTCUSD price seems to be in the works. RSI The RSI on the 1H is at 30 (barely oversold), RSI on the 4H is at about 26 at the point of writing, and on the 15M, we can see RSI at the mid-range of 50. On the macro time frames the signal would be that after the latest capitulation move CAPITALCOM:BTCUSD is ready for relief & we should be eyeing a move to the ~61.80% level to the ~38.20% Fibonacci levels. BB%B The BB%B indicator with a longer period of 75 shows that there has been a double bottom of price action, which is also reflected on the chart at the support levels of $20,800 where the price has already bounced twice. We can expect to see a strong expansion or oscillation of the indicator to the upside above 1.0 readings over the next 36 hours from the writing of this post. Targets Based on the cyclical timeframe measurement, we should be able to expect the price to hit targets of $21,550 within the next 24 hours of the time of writing. The secondary target for the relief bounce of price would be $21,795 within 48 hours of the time of writing based on the cyclical timeframe measurements. If you managed to fill your entries around the $28,000 levels, you could expect a 3.18% move to the upside at target 1 ($21,550) & a 4.56% move to the upside at target 2 ($21,795). ------ As usual, this piece of analysis is simply my perspective & due diligence is imperative when you are entering your trades. Leave a like or comment if this piece of analysis helped. Good luck trading. NOIV
CAPITALCOM:BTCUSDLong
by NOIV