BITCOIN The ultimate Bear pattern slowly breaking to the upsideThis is a very interesting pattern that perhaps was ignored but paints Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) whole picture during this Bear Cycle.
** Mini Channels within Main Channel Down **
As you see the dominant structure has been a Channel Down but with the use of the Fibonacci Channel levels we can see that it can be divided into two secondary (mini) ones that seem to have almost the same trading pattern (the first (A) within the 0.0 and 0.382 Fibs and the second (B) within the 0.618 and 1.0 Fibs).
The RSI sequences tend to agree with that thesis and right now we are at the point after the mini Channel (A) broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which following a pull-back to the 0.786 Fib, rebounded to the -0.236 extension. That happened to be on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at the time and causing a rejection, kick-started mini Channel (B).
** The Bearish and Bullish extremes **
We may be missing an important detail though. By breaking above the 1D MA50 last week, BTC broke above the main Channel Down of the Bear Cycle. However it did a proportional break to the downside of the Channel on December 04, which I call (Bearish Extreme) and that came close to the -0.236 Fib. Similarly this may be the Bullish Extreme to the 1.236 Fib symmetry. A break above it, invalidates the bearish bias and breaks the main Channel Down completely to the upside, opening the way for a new pattern for the first time since the November 11 2021 All Time High (ATH).
As a result it would be ideal to break above the -0.236/1.236 Resistance cluster above as soon as possible to confirm the first pattern into the new Bull Cycle. Until then there seems to be heavy sell accumulation around 26k.
Do you think this is the ultimate pattern we've been ignoring for so long and if yes do you expect a break above the 1.236 Fib extension to take us into the new Bull Cycle? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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Btcusdsignals
BITCOIN Closing of the month reveals the start of the rallyThis is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. I am using various indicators to plot the current position relative to past Cycles and the more you add, the closer it looks that the market has bottomed.
** The importance of the LMACD **
As we have 1 week before the end of July, the monthly candle closing can reveal a lot, particularly in terms of the LMACD indicator. As you see in the past two Cycles, then the 1M LMACD histogram turned from dark red into light red, BTC had already priced its Cycle bottom. At the moment, the LMACD is exactly at the point where the past two Cycles bottomed. So giving a light red histogram next Monday (August 01) will most likely confirm the start of this Cycle's Accumulation Phase.
That Accumulation Phase, can be fast (2019) or slower (2015). It appears that closing above the 1W MA20 (blue trend-line) is the difference between having a faster or a slower phase into the new rally.
** The Gaussian Channel **
In any case, having held the 1W MA300 as Support as it did twice in 2019 and 2020, the price looks ready for accumulation. An indicator that I have never used on this time-frame, is the Gaussian Channel. However it provides excellent insight because, as you see on the chart, when the price (almost) touched its green trend-line on March 2020 and August 2015 (circles), a strong rally began. Right now this trend-line is closer than ever and if Bitcoin accumulates some more before breaking to the upside, it can hit it by November, if not sooner as it is aggressively rising.
In my opinion all the above paint a very promising 2nd half to the year for BTC that can end with an aggressive rally. Do you also see the LMACD as being the key for starting the new phase? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN 1st step into the Bull Cycle successful. One left to go.This week's big development for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been the break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 21. On this analysis I compare the patterns of the current Bear Cycle and the past two in an attempt to find if this break can be a structured move into a sustainable recovery.
First of all, the time-frame on the candles is 1D (daily) but a lot of MA periods including the RSI and MACD indicators are displayed on the 1W because that prints a more complete picture. As you see the similarities of the current Bear Cycle with the past two are remarkable, despite it being an expanded flat correction as opposed to the other two which where sharp correction patterns.
** The Bear Cycle until now **
The RSI clearly shows that the top of the Cycle was in April 2021. That was followed by a sharp drop and rebound on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which is consistent with the past two Cycles. After the September - November 2021 pump that broke the sharp correction of the other two, the price quickly resumed the Bear Cycle model, was supported and rebounded near the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) to the 1W MA20 (yellow trend-line) where it was rejected. That initiated the final sell-off sequence of the Cycle, where the capitulation was again (as with the past two Cycles) evident by the 1W MA200 crossing below the 1W MA100. The June 18 bottom has been formed just above the -0.618 Fibonacci extension (counting as 0 the Low of the 1W MA50 test) and that caused a rebound that broke this week above the 1D MA50. As you see on the chart, all this has so far been remarkably consistent with the past Bear Cycles.
** What's next? **
To answer this we naturally have to look at how the past two Cycles traded. Following the 1D MA50 break-out, neither Cycle was able to post a sustainable rally. Instead, it was only when the price broke above the 1W MA20 and (especially in the case of 2015) above the 1W MA50 too, that the market was able to rally into the Bull Cycle. So naturally what we would like to see next to largely confirm a Bull Cycle turnaround, is a break above the 1W MA20, which currently is considerably higher, trading at 32700, but declining rapidly. Until then, we continue to be in an Accumulation Phase.
But what do you think about this comparison? Do you need to see a break above the 1W MA20 to confirm the recovery sentiment into a new Bull Cycle or feel that this week's break above the 1D MA50 is strong enough on its own? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN broke above both the 1D MA50 and 1W MA200! What's next?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has now broken above both the 1D MA50 (green trend-line) and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). This is a critical benchmark as it last hit the 1D MA50 on April 21 (3 months ago exactly) and it has been trading below the 1W MA200 since the June 13 1W (weekly) candle (more than 1 month).
As I've mentioned before numerous times, since the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) held as Support as it last did during the early March 2020 COVID collapse, a break above those trend-lines would be the first and perhaps most decisive signal that the Bear Cycle has bottomed.
** The TSI and MFI **
Notice how the True Strength Indicator (TSI) and the Money Flow Index (MFI), two key indicators for Bitcoin, has printed the same sequences during both the March 2020 and December 2018 bottoms. The TSI now just needs to make a new Bullish Cross (first since August 2021) while the MFI a break above its Falling Wedge, in order to confirm a new rally similar to those of April 2020 - April 2021 (blue pattern) and February 2019 - June 2019 (green pattern).
** Two possible rallies ahead **
For comparison purposes I've plotted those two Rally Sequences on today's price action. Note that this is just an illustration in an attempt to project the trend's action if the same pattern is repeated. If this is indeed the bottom of the Bear Cycle and the beginning of a new Bull Cycle, then the price is more likely to post the less aggressive rally of early 2019 (which was still much stronger than the previous Bull Cycles) as Bitcoin tends to still accumulate after a market bottom and posts the aggressive rally of the Cycle after the Halving.
It is worth noting though that both projections show that they will make contact with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) almost exactly at the level they did when they originally played out. This is remarkable and goes to show that there is indeed a degree of symmetry between phases.
So do you think that the break-out above both the 1D MA50 and 1W MA200 has signalled the bottom of the Bear and start of a new Bull Cycle? If yes, what projection is more likely for you, the green to $80000 towards the end of the year or blue to $200000 by mid 2023? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN hit the 1DMA50 for the 1st time in 3 months! Whats next?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 21. There are various patterns and trend-lines to consider at the moment, but mostly I want to bring forward the similarities with the November 2021 - March 2022 drop.
** Fractal comparison **
That sequence broke its 1D MA50 when first tested but pull-back back near its bottom shortly after. However it recovered equally quickly and tested both the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D MA200 proved to be the ceiling of that potential recovery as the price got rejected exactly there, which happened to be just over the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. It is worth noting that both sequences made their bottoms around the same time from their tops (75 and 82 days respectively). Also note the similarities on the RSI structures. The 1D MA50 test coming after the RSI broke above its most recent Resistance.
** Level's to consider now **
The 1D MA50 test on today's sequence, comes at exactly the same level with the Lower Highs trend-line from the top. That could add extra rejection pressure. In addition, it is exactly on the Higher Highs (top) trend-line of the small Channel Up pattern that has been formed since the June 18 bottom. As a result, that's technically a triple level Resistance.
A break above the 1D MA50, naturally targets the 1D MA100 and similarly above that, targets the 1D MA200. If the Nov-March fractal tells us anything, its that the market shouldn't be expecting a long-term bullish reversal before closing above the 1D MA200, which has been containing the price action below it since December 31 2021, so practically for the whole year!
Do you think its time to change that? Would a break above the 1D MA50 signal a bullish reversal, for the short-term at least? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD Change of Trend! - A Bull run coming!BTCUSD made a great dump for several months until it reaches the 17689.13 support zone area. Weeks passed this dump momentum has lost it run and made a beautiful uptrend movement making the buyers taking advantage of the uptrend momentum which clearly made a higher highs and higher lows. It will reach the 21500 area of resistance it is probable that it will break this resistance zone and continue its upward movement. Timing and confirmation of price action are needed for these entries. #tyor #dyor
BITCOIN The bottom is in based on RSI-Sine Wave structureThis is a very unique approach on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) where I take into consideration the wave length of the RSI on the 1W time-frame in an attempt to identify potential correlations with Cyclical behavior. The result is striking and aligns almost perfectly with Cycle Bottoms.
The first step is to turn to the 1W RSI and calculate the middle of the wave length that starts on one bottom and ends on the next. It is interesting to notice how the waves overlap as they contain all of the RSI action. This gives us the top of the wave which in candle terms it is far from the top of the Cycle. In fact it is at the start of the parabolic rise of the Bull Cycle.
If we take the Sine Wave tool and draw the peak on those RSI peaks, we see that the bottom of the Sine Waves on each BTC Cycle is almost on the actual bottom. And for the current Cycle that was on last week's (1W) candle. With the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) supporting so far, all the price action needs to do in order to confirm that is break above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) below which we're trading for the past month.
Do you think the bottom is in for Bitcoin? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Clash of theories and the possibility of 10K as bottomBitcoin (BTCUSD) is on the 4th straight week of sideways trading following the mid June low. By doing so, it reached the bottom (Higher Lows) trend-line of a Channel Up pattern that fits perfectly BTC's price action since April 2013. With the LMACD hitting the Support trend-line of Feb 2015, all this looks like a Cycle bottom but let's examine this more carefully with the help of additional indicators.
** The Channel and its extremes **
As you see on this chart, the price action has broken above the Channel Up only twice these 9 years and that was during the formation of the November 2013 and December 2017 Cycle Tops. Those Bullish extremes took place exactly on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. There hasn't yet been a break below the bottom of the Channel but it is possible to do so if the price action fails to hold the Higher Lows trend-line in the coming weeks.
** The Bearish extreme argument to $10000 **
If it does fail, then we may very well see the first Bearish extreme and what better candidate for a bottom than the symmetrical Fibonacci level of -0.5. Bottoming there makes a perfect fit for an approximately -86% drop from the Cycle Top, which is a consistent correction percentage with all previous Bear Cycles. That would pull Bitcoin down to marginally below the 10k USD level.
** The LMACD **
As mentioned before the LMACD is on the Support level that marked both previous Cycle Bottoms. If this fails, it could be a first indication that we will be going for that first Bearish extreme of the Channel. On the bullish side though, if it holds, it validates this historic pattern which on the upside has two Lower Highs trend-lines that shape Cycle Tops. The oldest one that started in June 2011 has projected all Highs below the last two Cycle Tops. Since Dec 2017 it is the Diverging Lower Highs trend-line that marks the actual Cycle Tops. As a result, if the LMACD Support holds, keep an eye for a rather vast visit to the 2011 LH line for a first rally high similar to June 2019.
But what do you think about that? Do you expect the Channel to hold or go for a -0.5 Fib Bearish extreme of around 10000 USD completing a -86% drop? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Adam & Eve = a common bottom patternBitcoin (BTCUSD) failed to break above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) last week and the pull-back is testing the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) today. Despite the short-term weakness, we have the completion of an encouraging pattern, the Adam & Eve (A&E).
I've displayed next to today's price action, three A&E patterns from recent history (Sep 2020, March 2020, Dec 2018), all of which formed bottoms on BTC. Notice the formation of a Golden Cross following the completion of all patterns. A new Golden Cross (when the MA50 crosses above the MA200) is close in today's sequence as well. In addition, the RSI sequences are also quite similar on all.
Do you think a break above the 4H MA200 confirms this pattern and essentially the bottom? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Bear Market ending this summer. Charting the next Bull.This is an analysis of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1M (monthly) time-frame where its long-term (historic) Cycles are best viewed. This is a combination of some previous studies of mine with adding the element of Cycle Channels instead of the Parabolic Growth Curve.
** The LMACD **
As you see those also effectively depict the notion of decreasing volatility and diminishing returns over time, which is a natural consequence of increasing adoption. This is also illustrated by the LMACD indicator (bottom pane), which shows slowing volatility and right now has completed 10 months in the red. During the previous Cycles, it recorded 10 and 12 months during the 2018 and 2014 Bear Cycles respectively before BTC formed the bottom. This shows that the bottom is either already in or should be priced by September.
** The Halvings **
Another factor that completely matches that date is the pre Halving nature of Bitcoin that during the previous two events, bottomed 17 and 18 months respectively for Halving 2020 and 2016. The next Halving (no 4) is expected for March 2024 and 18 months before the event, place the bottom this September as well.
** The MA Fibonacci multiples **
The added element of the MA multiples on this chart, gives a fresh idea of the huge Support offered by the 1.62X multiple (green line). Each Cycle though has found Support a Fib level higher each time. M21 (red trend-line) and M13 (orange trend-line), are the candidate levels for the Top of the upcoming Bull Cycle. That is currently within 107k and 173k approximately.
Do you also think the new Bull Cycle is closer than most expect? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Gaussian Channel & RSI turning upwards. Bottom forming?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is on the 5th straight week after the Gaussian Channel (GC) turned red on the 1W time-frame. In the past two Cycles, the market formed a bottom 6 weeks after the GC turned red on the December 10 2018 candle and 4 weeks on the January 12 2015 candle.
Additionally, the 1W RSI has reversed upwards after last week's double bottom. Those formation are consistent with all prior Cycle Bottoms. The 1W MA300 (red trend-line) is at 16790 and, as I mentioned numerous times, is the trend-line that supported BTC on March 2020, Aug 2015 and Jan 2015.
A case against the bottom can be made by the fact that the price is trading below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the 4th straight week. That has never happened before in BTC's history and is certainly a factor to worry about. In the event of a weekly (1W) candle close below the 1W MA300, the next trend-line that lastly supported a Bear Cycle was the 0.5 X multiple of the 1W MA300 on the October 17 and November 14 2011 Bottoms.
Do you think the above is enough evidence of a bottom being formed right not on BTC or you're expecting a break much lower than the 1W MA300? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Hyper-Cycle model shows we're where every cycle bottomedBitcoin (BTCUSD) has started the 3rd straight week of consolidation above the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) after nearly hitting the level on the weekly candle of June 13. I've made extensive publications on the importance of this level as a Support and this time I want to elaborate on the Hyper-Cycle Theory (HCT) that reveals a progression on the extension of each Cycle and projects where we are now relative to each Cycle and how far we might go.
As you see each Cycle (Cycle 1 with the red, Cycle 2 with the green, Cycle 3 with the blue and Cycle 4 with the black trend-line) up to the April 2021 top is approximately 0.819 of the previous one. Based on that, Cycle 4 should be roughly extend for 148 weeks (1086 days) from the April High (181 weeks Cycle 3 / 221 weeks Cycle 2). That however puts the next Cycle Top exactly on the next Halving which is on March 2024. This comes in contrast to all prior Cycles that had their most aggressive Bull runs (parabolic rallies) right after the supply shock of each Halving. Of course if this theory of lower volatility for Bitcoin as adoption becomes greater in time, should at some point create fewer and fewer market extremes with smaller Cycles of Highs and Lows and break this Halving model.
For projection reasons, I've plotted each of the past three Cycles starting at the April 2021 High. Surprisingly, each candle projection roughly fills the remainder of their respective Cycle. This may indicate that in a symmetric way on this Cycle, we are at the point where all prior Cycles formed their bottoms proportionately. If that's the case, then BTC is still before the middle of the Cycle, even if the 0.819 progression model stands, giving plenty of time for the next Bull Run, even if it peaks before the Halving. Proportionately though, a repeat of Cycle 3 or better yet Cycle 2 would appear to be more fitting to the Halving model. But lets stick to the HCT model for now. Obviously a repeat of Cycle 1, that high that quickly especially, would be too unrealistic in market cap terms.
So which projection is more fitting according to you? Do you agree with the model predicting a Cycle Top before the next Halving? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
Important Note: Axis movements clearly distort the Cycles on the chart. If they get out of context on your monitor, try moving them to their original position based on the snapshot of the original snapshot of the chart:
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BITCOIN recorded the 3rd worst month ever! Bull or bear sign?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has just recorded its third worst monthly closing in history amid high uncertainty not in just the crypto market but in the global economy as well, as the negative macro-economic outlook doesn't show signs of reversal yet.
This chart is (naturally) on the 1M (monthly) time-frame and as you see, the June candle closed on a -37.32% loss, with only February 2014 (-38.87%) and August 2011 (-38.58%) having recorded worse monthly losses. That said, it tied September 2011 for the 3rd spot. With the exception of the first Cycle in 2011, which was the shortest one, such huge red monthly candles tend to form either at the very start of a Bear Cycle or exactly at the end of it where the bottom gets formed.
For the current Bear Cycle (having that peculiar top in April 2021, slightly lower than November 2021), this is the second -30% candle. The first was the May 2021 (-35.38%) slightly after the Cycle Top. With the current candle coming a full year after that, it appears that the chances of that being near the bottom of the Bear Cycle and not the start are far greater. Especially considering the fact that the 1M RSI is trading exactly on the Lower Lows trend-line that has made three contacts prior to that.
But what do you think? Do you feel this -37.32% monthly candle is starting a Cycle far worse than thought or it is close/ at the bottom of it? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN An overlooked pattern and a Bearish CrossBitcoin (BTCUSD) is under heavy volatility as ever since the June 18 Low, the price attempted a short-term rebound only to be rejected on the 4H MA100. An overlooked parallel lines pattern as well as a Bearish Cross may give as a clue to where we are compared to the bottom of the previous Cycle.
** The peculiar pattern **
First of all, see the parallel trend-lines on this 1D chart. Those are of Higher Lows and Higher Highs. In 2018/19, Bitcoin had 4 perfect touches on the Higher Highs on its way to the final flush sequence of the Bear Cycle. Then had two contacts on the Higher Lows trend-line. The same pattern had the exact same amount of contacts made (4) on the Higher Highs and so far 1 on the Higher Lows.
** The CCI and RSI bottom sequences **
On top of that, the 1D CCI (black line) and RSI (light blue line) have formed sequences similar to the December 2018 bottom. This was the first contact on the Higher Lows trend-line of our pattern. Can a second and final contact be in hand here? Very possible especially if the price gets rejected on the 1D MA50 (one fake-out) as in 2018/ early 2019.
** The Bearish Cross **
Last but not least, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) broke today below the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). Last time that happened was on December 30 2018, exactly after the first rebound on that Cycle's bottom.
With all those indicators aligned perfectly to show that in comparison to 2018, BTC is currently past the Bottom, could it be the case that one last Higher Lows contact confirms this overlooked pattern? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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It seems to be insane, doesn't it?There are 4 scenarios as I showed on the chart. We have 4 crucial levels to which, the price can react.
Movements and the path are measured and determined on weekly chart.
If the market behaves according to what I measured in my analysis, I will explain how I predicted the market movements and the price targets.
Best of luck!
Ipdate #BTC nearly dropped to the support zone around $20,100#BTC nearly dropped to the support zone around $20,100. Now, it's a decision time, if price break this support then a dump will continue till $18,700 and below. Moreover, price will build-up a range which will continue moving between $20,100 - $21,400 levels.
BITCOIN Scenarios for recovery based on previous Cycle bottomsFollowing the high interest that my most recent analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and its Cycles comparison attracted, I decided to make one in the same tone on possible rebound scenarios based on the previous Cycle bottoms.
Before I begin, I want to make clear that this work is based on the assumption that the current bottom was priced two weeks ago or at least that it will be formed soon as long as the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) holds. This analysis is on the 1W (weekly) time-frame and I've divided it into four charts, each having a 'bars pattern' fractal of the first rally following a bottom, applied on the current price action.
Apart from the obvious Cycle bottom fractals of Nov 14 2011 - Jan 02 2012 (black bars), Jan 12 2015 - Nov 02 2015 (red bars) and Dec 10 2018 - June 24 2019 (green bars), I've also included the recovery from the COVID crash of March 16 2020 - August 17 2020 (grey bars). Obviously the aggressive and highly volatile nature of the first BTC Cycle (black) projects a sharp recovery of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) by August, which under the current macro conditions seems unrealistic. Same goes for the March-Aug 2020 fractal (grey), which also has it by the end of August. The 2015 fractal (red) has this target hit by early April 2023 and is the most pessimistic of all, while the remaining Dec-June 2019 (green) offers a more moderate projection by expecting a 1W MA50 contact by November 2022.
It is interesting to mention though that March-Aug 2020 is the only one that shows rejection and consolidation under the 1W MA50 for 2.5 months before a break higher a scenario that would be realistic too as the 1W MA50 is the initial Resistance of Cycles as they transition from Bear to Bull markets.
Below is an illustration of all fractals on top of each other:
As mentioned above, all these are mere projections based on past data. What matters most now is seeing the 1W MA300 hold and make all weekly candles that follow, close above it in order to maintain buying accumulation. Failure to do so, can make the price test the 13000 level as illustrated on a previous Fibonacci analysis.
So based on the original bottom assumption, which fractal do you feel offers the most realistic projection of a recovery? Or you think the bottom is way past the 1W MA300? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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#BTC update The trend is in the middle as BTC 23500 is not brokBitcoin gives a fakeout above the resistance level to hunt stop loss and liquidate high leverage positions. BTC is now trading below the resistance level which is not a good sign. Today global markets opening will decide the next move for BTC. The support and resistance levels remain the same.
#BTC update The trend is in the middle as BTC 23500 is not brokBitcoin gives a fakeout above the resistance level to hunt stop loss and liquidate high leverage positions. BTC is now trading below the resistance level which is not a good sign. Today global markets opening will decide the next move for BTC. The support and resistance levels remain the same.