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Btcusdsignals

BITCOIN just broke below its Bull Flag! How low can it go?Bitcoin's impressive rally since March 14 has seen for the first time break below a Bull Flag pattern and not above it. Is this alarming and if so how low can the price go? ** The 1H MA200 and Higher Lows trend-line as Support ** Well at first, it doesn't seem alarming, at least not as long as the Zone consisting of the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 2-week Higher Lows trend-line (started since the March 14 low) are holding. Those form the first Support Band on the short-term. If this breaks however, the price could seek the lower Fibonacci extensions (-1.0, -1.5 and -2.0) towards the next Support trend-line of the 1D MA50 (yellow line). ** The 1D MA200 as Resistance ** On the other hand, there is a clear Resistance, in the form of the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), that has already had a rejection on the price three days ago. A candle closing above this, would most likely sustain this 2 week rally as the price seeks the next unfilled Fibonacci extension level, which is the Fib 2.0. Until this Resistance and the Support Zone mentioned above break, a scalping opportunity is presented in the form of a Triangle. ** The 2 week RSI Buy Zone ** Don't ignore the 1H RSI, which just entered the 2 week Buy Zone (green zone) that started exactly when this rally took off on the Higher Lows trend-line. As for where Bitcoin (BTCUSD) stands on the longer-term, take a look at the 1D time-frame below. The current Bull Flag, could be similar to that of mid August 2021, which was formed half-way to a 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross. Right now the new 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross is emerging. This can be enough to sustain one last 2 week rally before a stronger correction: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
20
BITCOIN broke its 3 month consolidation! What's next?Bitcoin finally broke above the 3 month consolidation that started after January 05, which was in the form of an Ascending Triangle pattern. Yesterday, the price broke above the Triangle's Resistance and at the same time the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and is about to test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since January 02. As mentioned on my most recent analysis two days ago, the 1D MA200 was BTC's first target in the event of a Triangle break-out: Now let's look at the dynamics more closely and see how the price action over the past 12 month period can set parameters for this rally. First, the long-term Channel Up that Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading in since the April 14 2021 High (All Time High at the time), is not a new concept. It is an idea that I first introduced on the 1W time-frame, back on January 25: ** The Channel Up, the 1D MA200 as a pivot and the 4H MA200 as a Support ** So, based on the last rally that started after the previous Higher Low (bottom) on the Channel Up, if the price breaks the 1D MA200, it could continue as high as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (55300) at least, before considering a pull-back. If it gets rejected though on the 1D MA200 and fails to close a 1D candle above it, BTC could seek the 4H MA200 (green dotted line) as a Support before it resumes the uptrend. That trend-line (4H MA200) is critical to the current break-out, as in the July - September 2021 rally, it maintained the bullish momentum and when it broke (after the price marginally broke above the 0.618 Fibonacci), the pull-back of Bullish Phase 1 came. As a result, if the current rally breaks above the 1D MA200, look for the first signs of a pull-back when the 4H MA200 breaks. ** The 1W RSI peak ** A similar benchmark that may indicate the peak of Bullish Phase 1 of this new rally to a Higher High, is the RSI on the 1W time-frame. It seems that the current leg is fairly symmetrical to the July - August one, so if the 1W RSI hits the 62.10 Resistance and fails, look for a price pull-back. This pull-back shouldn't be much lower than the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (46800). If we see buy accumulation there, then the Bullish Phase 2 could start and complete this rally near the Higher Highs trend-line of the April 2021 Channel Up. Do you agree with this road map to a new All Time High? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
25
BITCOIN Can it ever reach the magic Fib 3.0 extension of 1m USD?Since its inception and after it started trading, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been making (much) higher tops on each of its market cycles. Everyone reading this knows that is growth rate is tremendous and has been supported by its Parabolic Growth Curve (the black trend-line on this chart) over the years. The last two Cycle Tops have come close (but didn't hit) to the Fibonacci 2.5 extension. The previous Highs made contact with the lower Fibs of 2.0 and 1.5. Naturally, the question that comes to mind is will it ever reach the next Fib extension in line, the 3.0, and if yes, when could that be? Well based on its historic pattern performance, it is a question of when and not if. The when is hard to answer, as Bitcoin may very well continue trading the next Cycles within the Fib 2.0 - 2.5 extensions, as it has been doing for more than a year (from Dec 2020 until now) and even fulfil the parameter of touching the Growth Curve at the bottom of the next Cycle, without breaking out of range. The longer it goes, the more the market will mature and as Bitcoin receives mass adoption, the extraordinary gains of the past will become less and less realistic. It can be argued even that if the Support Growth Curve dictates the lows, there should be a Resistance Growth Curve that sustains the Highs of the Cycles. That is the mathematical logic behind logarithms that Parabolas turn asymptotic and that suggests that at some point this Growth Channel (of Support and Resistance) may turn asymptotic and stabilize the prices, neutralizing the massive volatility of BTC as we've known so far, as massive adoption of the technology is achieved. Apart from this theory, and to answer the question of this idea, I believe that it certainly can reach the 3.0 Fibonacci extension level, and most likely when it does, it will reach the $1m mark, making Bitcoin a million dollar asset! Technically that is any time after October 2023. Perhaps that would be one of the next times that the 1W RSI hits its historic Resistance Zone (as this matches the hits or near hits of BTC on the Fib extensions). So what's your view on this? Can Bitcoin reach the 3.0 Fib extension and turn into a 1 million USD asset? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
49
BITCOIN The Vortex Indicator shows the bottomThis is Bitcoin on the 1M (monthly) time-frame where the short/medium-term noise is filtered out and cyclical behavior can be better illustrated. A rather 'unappreciated' indicator is the VI (Vortex Indicator), which on this long-term chart, gives a clear signal on where the bottom might be in. As you see, every time the red line of the VI crosses above the blue line (Bearish Cross) on the 1M chart, then by the next 1M candle, the market bottom is priced in. Basically in a total of 4 occurrences since 2011, all bottoms have already be in by the time of the VI Cross, and only the January 2015 candle priced the bottom straight after the Cross. Right now, the VI is on course to form a new Bearish Cross, probably by April or May. If this sequence continues to play out, then by the May or June monthly candle, Bitcoin should price the bottom (if not already in). Note that on the August 2012 and September 2020 monthly candles, BTC was above the 1M MA20 (green trend-line), while on the January 2015 and December 2018, it was below. Do you think the price will break below the 1M MA20 by May/ June or the bottom is already in? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
33
BITCOIN close to a LMACD Bullish Cross. What does the past show?The LMACD (MACD on the logarithmic scale), is a very useful indicator when trying to identify trend shifts, especially on the long-term time-frames. It is particulary fit to Bitcoin when analyzing its historic Cycles on the 1W chart. It appears that the LMACD is only 2-3 weeks away from forming a Bullish Cross (blue line crossing above the orange line) on the 1W time-frame. As the specification suggests, it is a bullish formation technically, and history certainly agrees with it as in a total of 16 LMACD Bullish Crosses only 2 failed to deliver a Higher High. In fact, both of those where the first Bullish Cross in the last two Bear Cycles (red Rectangles). Assuming that since April 2020, BTC is running on a new Bear Cycle (the smoothest as I've called it in past analyses), we see that it has already made one Bullish Cross that delivered a rally and not a new Low. If the upcoming Bullish Cross fails to post a new rally, it will historically be the first time to do so as a 2nd Bullish Cross within a Bear Cycle. It is obvious that odds are vastly against this scenario and most likely the next LMACD Bullish Cross on the 1W time-frame will deliver a rally that will leave behind the Cycle's market bottom. Would you agree or you think this time is different and the next Bullish Cross will deliver a new Low (likely the market bottom)? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
12
BITCOIN $100k or $25k? Comparing today and 2015.Two fractals of now (2021/22) and then (2015/16), two different time-frames (3D and 2D respectively). It is evident that price-wise the two sequences look the same. The MA50 (blue trend-line) is the Resistance, when it broke in 2015, the rally of the recovery started. A Higher Highs trend-line on both. However, the RSI in 2015 has been on Higher Highs too but currently, since 2021, it is on Lower Highs. Potentially that indicates a hidden Bearish Divergence. So far the MA200 (orange trend-line) is supporting but if we close below it, this RSI Bearish Divergence could develop into a price bearish trend. A break above the MA50 invalidates that and should be enough to kick-start the rally towards $100k. Which of the two will prevail? The RSI Bearish Divergence or the MA50 will break? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
53
COUNTER-DOUBLE BOTTOM BTCUSDT As I said in my last signal BTC could reach 39K again., now what? you are good? calm down, I have some rebel counter for a double bottom strategy. for now, the price of BTC is dependent on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. That's the condition I mentioned in the previous signal regarding the conditions that can make BTC prices go down. because the bear is still the king. Don't counter the sentiment of market transactions right now. Buy Setup (Leverage: x1-x3 -> 3% Margin) BUY: $38,910 - $36,612 - GOLDEN PRICE ( $34,469 - $32,835 ) SELL: $41800 - $42,300 - $43,600 - $44,700 - $46,000++ HELL CONDITION: IF BTCUSDT PRICE GO BELOW THE HELL GATE, BTC WILL DRAG YOU TO $20K-25K CONGRATS
Long
by nurmilham_
2
BITCOIN / NASDAQ ratio. Time to cut from tech & go heavy on BTC?I present to you a very interesting symbol combo, the Bitcoin/ Nasdaq ratio. In recent years one has outperformed the other and vice versa, which those interchanges being caused by the market fundamentals and macro-economics at the time such as Musk and China ban favoring Nasdaq over Bitcoin last year. In recent days however we see the current war climate in Ukraine favoring Bitcoin over the tech index. In fact, the ratio hit its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) this week for the first time since late November 2021. Currently we are within a Triangle pattern. The last two times the ratio broke above the 1W MA50 after the Sine-wave bottom, a buy signal was triggered. In fact it was a massive one in both cases. Check also the RSI sequences, all three periods look very similar. Currently the RSI is testing its Lower Highs trend-line. A break, most likely tells us that the bottom is in. So will a break above the 1W MA50 mean we should cut from our Nasdaq portfolios and go heavier into Bitcoin? What do you think? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
11
BITCOIN started a new Bull Cycle last time the Dollar did this.On this chart I've plotted Bitcoin against the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on the 1W time-frame. It is a simple comparison of time phases. As you see, the DXY (black line) has reached in recent weeks a symmetrical level which during 2019 it started forming a Channel Up. At the same time Bitcoin (orange line) made the bottom of its 2018 Bear Cycle and started the new Bull Cycle. Right now the pattern formed on Bitcoin is very similar to that of the December 2018 - January 2019 Bear Cycle bottom. I have made a case in previous publications that Bitcoin may be in a mini (I called it in fact the 'smoothest' ever) Bear Cycle since the April 2021 High. Now that seems to be very consistent with that fractal comparison on DXY. Do you think the symmetrical pattern that DXY is forming may be an indication that BTC has bottomed? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
49