BTCUSD | Perspective for the new weekBTC suffered a plunge to a significant support level at around $34,000 area after news of Russia attacking Ukraine broke out. However, the appearance of a double bottom structure at a significant level of $34,000 incites potential recovery that is due for a relief rally as the Bulls take control with a target at $54,000 area in the meantime.
Tendency: Uptrend (Bullish)
Structure: Supply & Demand | Trendline | Reversal pattern (Double Bottom/Breakout)
Observation: i. A visual representation of a trend after connecting a series of prices with a line drawn over pivots highs shows the prevailing direction and speed of price in the last 4 months.
ii. On the 4-hour time frame, It is obvious that the overall momentum of price action has been bearish with the bearish trendline going as far as October 2021.
iii. However, at beginning of this month, we witnessed a breakout of this trendline to signal that the bearish trend might be losing momentum thereby giving way for the bulls to thrive.
iv. $34, 000 level seems to have held price "supported" in the last 34 days to signal a reversal set-up in the form of a Double bottom structure.
v. The appearance of a Double Bottom within the identified Demand zone at $34,000 describes a possible change in trend and a momentum reversal from prior leading price action with confirmation at Breakout of Key level ($45,000) which is also the neckline of the pattern.
vi. From my personal perspective, I will like to join the potential rally early so that I can have opportunities to stack my position if the price moves in the intended direction.
vii. In this regard, I shall be looking to open a position at breakout/retest of $40,000 (identified on the chart with a purple barrier) and anticipate adding to my exiting position at breakout/retest of the neckline of structure at $45,000.
CAUTION: Considering the overall bearish momentum, a breakdown of the demand zone at $34,000 shall render this narrative invalid as I will continue to hold a bullish bias above $40,000 ... Trade consciously!😊
Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 12,000 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:10
Potential Duration: 7 to 20days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Btcusdsignals
BITCOIN Will 20k happen?A lot of talk has been happening lately, whether Bitcoin has found a bottom or if the June 2021 breaks will see even lower prices such as 20k. Well, we can never rule out anything in the investing world, everything is open as a possibility. Based on BTC's historic price action though, we can get a fair understanding of the probabilities involved.
** The Green Zone and the Black Swan that broke it **
As you see, this is BTC on the 1W time-frame from 2012 to 2022. Since mid January 2022, the price entered the long-term Buy Zone (green area) and immediately reacted with a rebound. However, due to the recent events in Ukraine, we've been seeing a pull-back, which is still a Higher Low though. Wars are considered a Black Swan event, similar to the COVID flash crash in March 2020. As shown on the chart, that event was enough to make the price break below its multi-year Buy Zone and only find Support one Fib extension lower (2.0 Fib). As a result we can assume that if the current conflict between Ukraine and Russia escalates more aggressively into a war involving more countries, it could turn into another Black Swan event. The probabilities for that though depend on each person's understanding of reality.
** Previous Peak never re-tested **
Realistically that event doesn't have the highest probability to happen. As a result, it is most likely that the current levels are the new bottom of the long-term price action. At the same time historically, Bitcoin has never hit the Peak of the previous Cycle. Anything can happen of course, but it is a fact that the $32.00 peak "never happened", the $1250 peak "never happened", so most likely we won't see BTC hitting the $20000 peak of the previous Cycle either.
In fact, the 1W candle action since the November High, and in particular that since the mid January low, resembles the price action of every single Bear Cycle bottom: November 2018 - January 2019, July - October 2015 and January - May 2012 (Circle inside Blue Pattern).
So what do you think? Will 20k happen for Bitcoin? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Inverse Head & Shoulders short-termI rarely publish a short-term analysis on Bitcoin but a very structured pattern is being formed on the 4H time-frame and thought it'd best to share it with you.
As you see this is an Inverse Head & Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, which is a structure technically formed on market bottoms, with the trend changing from bearish to bullish. However there are several other dynamic parameters to consider:
* The price got rejected yesterday on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and today on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This means we have a successive double MA rejection in a few hours.
* Those rejections come straight after the formation of a 4H Death Cross, which is a technical bearish pattern. However such crosses haven't been that accurate lately as the 4H Golden Cross (the opposite of a Death Cross) on February 08, was formed on a short-term Top. We have to acknowledge however that this is the first 4H Death Cross since November 19 2021.
* There are three Lower Highs trend-lines involved. The latter 2 have already been broken but Trend-line 1 remains (which happens to be perfectly aligned at the moment with the 4H MA100 (green trend-line)) and is the one that started after the February 15 High.
* On the positive side though, the 4H RSI has been on a Higher Highs and Higher Lows Megaphone since for the past 5 days, indicating buying pressure.
As you realize, even though the IH&S pattern and the RSI point towards a recovery, BTC has to get past and close above the 4H MA50 and MA200 first and then the final Lower Highs trend-line 1, which at the moment apply selling pressure. The technical target of the IH&S pattern typically is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which is currently at 44350. This aligns almost perfectly with the 44800 Resistance of the February 15 High.
Which formation do you think will prevail? Let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN The OBV indicator says we're still accumulating.This is a simple yet very effective projection provided by the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator. I've charted Bitcoin on the 1W time-frame on this one in order to include all of its historic price action.
This one year sideways (though the margin is wide, it is still sideways for BTC's standard volatility) price action based on the OBV is nothing more than an Accumulation Phase. This is similar to June 2016 - April 2017 on the previous Cycle and with July 2012 - December 2012 on the one before. As you see, the OBV also provides clear patterns for the Cycle's final rally towards the Peak and the Bottom. Right now the closest pattern this past year looks like is the Accumulation.
This approach indicates that by the end of this year or beginning of the next, we should see the current Cycle making a peak. Where that can be? Well since each of the past two Cycles peaked on a +.382 Fibonacci progression (2.382 in Dec 2013 and 3.382 in Dec 2017), then the 4.382 Fib should be the next candidate for a peak, which is around $280000.
So what do you think about this OBV approach? Is it reliable in suggesting which part of the Cycle we're currently at? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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WE MIGHT SEE 39K AGAIN IF....Hello,
I make this setup because I saw some rejection for BTC at $44.5K area. Let's keep this in our mind. People have a bull position since they break the BTC area at 41K. We might see $47K wicked for the short killer (the probability is 50:50). When $47K reach don't keep your long position, or we could do a short position for trading here.
Leverage: x3
Entry: $44,400 - $46,900
Target: $41,300 - $40,110 - $39,200
SL: $47,900
I think we could do it because BTC need to take a breath. Let the time tell us.
BITCOIN is exactly where 3 tech giants have been in the past!Bitcoin has been consolidating for almost 1 year within a wide range that many market participants consider nothing more than a long-term Accumulation Phase. Well there is nothing better to strengthen this notion than this new analysis I present to you, based on how three tech giants (Amazon, Google, Apple) traded during a similar pattern.
First of all, in order to make the sample as diverse as possible, I've included fractals during time periods that are very different from each other. Amazon in 2009/2010 just after the subprime mortgage crisis, Google in 2014/2015 during the first major consolidation of the post crisis recover and Apple in 1998/1999 during the last years of the build up of the DotCom Bubble. This is a diverse enough sample to provide as an unbiased evaluation as possible.
So as you see, all tech giants made a bottom after the price broke below their respective 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) period and the Ichimoku Cloud. Then they started a rise, which evolved into a very aggressive rally. Even though all 4 fractals are similar, Bitcoin looks a little bit more like the Apple late 90s pattern, while Amazon and Google are more similar as the bottom below the 1W MA50s was a Lower Low. Bitcoin's (so far) and Apple's second corrective waves are Higher Lows and not Lower Lows. On the other hand though, Bitcoin and Google are the only fractals whose second waves broke below the Ichimoku Cloud, with that turning red for a short while, and the 1W MA50 turning sideways. Due to that, Google consolidated for around 4 months more around the 1W MA50 before rallying into a new All Time High.
What do you think will be the case for Bitcoin? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSDT | Get an impulse to the downside.If you find this technical analysis useful, please like & share our ideas with the community.
What do you think is more likely to happen? Please share your thoughts in comment section. And also give a thumbs up if you find this idea helpful. Any feedback & suggestions would help in further improving the analysis.
Good Luck!
Disclaimer!
This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading plan for the market. But you must do your own research and use it as the priority. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading.
BITCOIN repeating the July-Aug 2022 recovery. 50k next?Since the end of January, I've been comparing the correction since the November High to that of May 2021:
That chart was on the 1W time-frame. Using the 4H time-frame this time, we can see how the recovery that started on the January 24 bottom is very similar to that of July - August 2021.
As you see, both broke above their 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and made a top on the 1.1236 Fibonacci extension level from their last High of the correction sequence. That peak led by a Head and Shoulders pattern broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) which has been supporting on the long-term. This is as far as the current recovery sequence has gone as it brings us to today. The July - August recovery, consolidated within its Ichimoku Cloud but eventually formed the new Support that took it to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension before the next pull-back occurred.
The MACD sequences are so far equally similar. Does this mean that BTC can once again find Support on its Ichimoku? And if so is the 1.5 Fibonacci the next target? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Analysis 12.02.2022Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I will personally reply to every single comment!
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
BITCOIN The consolidation phase cheat sheetBasically, I've applied this methodology with the cyclical Fibs before but this time I've taken it a step further plotting all consolidation phases within a Bitcoin cycle based on the Fibonacci levels.
Astonishingly, those are very consistent and tend to repeat themselves in each Cycle with high preciseness. As this chart shows on the 1W time-frame, each Cycle has once consolidation phase below the 0.5 Fibonacci level (green region), one above the 0.5 Fibonacci level (blue region) and the last one around the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (yellow region). According to that model, BTC is currently on the 1.5 Fib consolidation phase, which based on the previous two Cycles, is the final accumulation before the ultimate parabolic rally to the peak of the Cycle.
What price can that peak be at? Well this can be answered using the Fibonacci extension levels themselves. In the previous two Cycles, the Cycle Peak was priced at just above the 2.272 Fibonacci extension (measured as 0.0 Fib the bottom of the Cycle and 1.0 Fib the top of the previous Cycle). Oddly enough, this is roughly what the Fib measurements of the last consolidation phase indicate, which marks the peak on its 2.5 Fib extension (0.0 Fib the bottom of the consolidation and 1.0 Fib the top).
Assuming that this pattern will continue to replicate itself as it did in the previous Cycles, we can project the next Cycle peak to roughly be within the 2.272 Fib extension of the prior peak and cycle bottom ($ 210k) and the 2.5 Fib extension of the final consolidation phase ($ 250k).
How accurate do you think this model is? Do you also think that the new cyclical peak will be in the 210 -250k region? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD : MAY THE DIP BE WITH YOU Hi,
I'm still in positive vibes that BTC needs to take a deep breath and it will start to be a good bull again after hitting $41K-$42K. I'm not in a short position but if you are confident about it just do it, of course with low leverage and 1% margin risk.
Here will share my buy signal in the golden buy area for BTCUSD.
ENTRY: $41K - $42K
TARGET: $44K - $45K
CL: $39K
of course, I make this signal with a probability of speculation on 11 February. because Russia will be introducing its strategy for crypto regulation.
finbold.com
"The latter has received most of the support, and if adopted, will mean that Russians owning digital money will be able to operate with them as with investment assets, such as making transactions through Russian banks, and paying taxes. All that, of course, under the watchful eye of the government. "
I think this will have a big effect on the market. fasten your seat belt and safe trade.
Congrats for someone who short in a good position in my latest signal before:
BITCOIN Only the 1D MA50 left to break to confirm the uptrend.This is an update to last week's analysis on Bitcoin's potential to turn bullish again within its 12-month Channel Up:
The buyers have made the first decisive move towards restoring the long-term bullish trend as the Lower Highs trend-line that is practically holding since the November 10 2021 All Time High (ATH) broke yesterday in emphatic fashion. Note that as we discussed, the correction phase since November has been very similar with that of April - July 2021 so far. During that sequence, after the Lower Highs trend-line broke, BTC also broke the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) within the same week and that was the final barrier before the aggressive August - November rally to new ATH.
So what's your take on this? Will the 1D MA50 break and if so will it confirm a long-term uptrend? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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*URGENT WARNING FOR BITCOIN!*Bitcoin is attempting for the third week to close a weekly candle below the .618 Fib level. We are also trading below the EMA Ribbons which is a sign of weakness. The TD Sequential displayed a red 9 roughly a month ago which often indicates a bottom. This time the bottom was not found at that exact level. It was easy to spot by viewing the descending MFI.
Bitcoin is also trading in a large head and shoulders pattern which is a really bearish pattern. We also have a one-body weekly candlestick formation which is another bearish signal. If the week does not close above the previous week this pattern will be valid and the price of Bitcoin is most likely to plummet. The pain should stop at the .786 Fib level which is located at a large support level which is found at 29-24k.
Bitcoin is also trading below large VPVR nodes which means that we lost large critical levels of support. This can be seen by the decreasing buying volume and the increasing selling volume. The fact that buyers aren't stepping in at this price level indicates that further downside could be highly likely. The only bullish divergence found in this chart is the weekly MFI which is indicating a buy signal. I do not take this signal seriously due to the fact that other indicators do not support it. Therefore this bullish divergence on the MFI is less likely to play out.
If support is not mounted above the EMA Ribbons confirmed by volume and bullish divergence on the MFI Bitcoin is not bullish.
I am looking at 29-24k$ for BTC.
Best case scenario is a break of 40k which is less likely to occur.
*WARNING* This thread is not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor.
Thank you for reading.
BITCOIN & an old DOW fractal show holding the 1W MA100 is keyBitcoin almost hit last week the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and that was enough to provide a rebound, at least on the short-term. The importance of this trend-line as a long-term Support if BTC is to recover and post a really to a new All Time High (ATH) can be further emphasized by a similar fractal formed on Dow Jones in 1994.
The periods of comparison is 2020 - 2022 on BTC and 1993 - 1995 on Dow Jones. As shown on their respective 1W charts, both started off after a flash crash and recovered initially on a Channel Up. Gradually they peaked, forming the 1-2-3-4 pattern, which eventually hit the 1W MA100. Notice how even the RSI sequences are identical. Dow Jones held the 1W MA100 as Support for 3 straight weeks and then after breaking the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), it never looked back.
Can we see a similar rally to ATH on Bitcoin as well? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSDT ShortTime Frame: 4H
Symbol: BTCUSDT
Entry:
T.P:
S.L:
Bias: Short
We are anticipating a short trade from the current price context. We strongly believe that a good quality signal must pass three valid conditions. First of all every signal must be properly timed. Secondly every signal must have it's proper entry and exit levels and thirdly every signal must have a directional bias and backed by technical or fundamental analysis.
In our case we see a short range where the price pattern is showing a bearish tendency due to recent price upswing. We can explicitly see that the price is loitering at the resistance level and there is a high probability of dropping down . The upcoming drop will make room for a smart short entry.
The timing is important as we move on . Our signal will remain valid for next two days.