Get started

Btcusdsignals

BITCOIN's LMACD model from 2020 was spot on. 100k still in play?This is an update to a May 2020 analysis that I posted when Bitcoin was still valued at $9000, recovering from the March 2020 COVID crash. It offered great insight on the concept of Diminishing Returns and even though at the time quite a few were familiar with the Theory of Lengthening Cycles, I introduced the LMACD model that put everything in context. Click play and draw your own conclusions: First of all look at how accurately the price got rejected in April 2021 at the top of Bitcoin's historical Parabolic Channel. The reason was that within the current Cycle, the late 2020 - early 2021 rise was 'a little too high too soon'. The recovery after July 2021 and the new All Time High in November 2021 confirmed this idea, that April was not the top of the Cycle but got rejected because BTC outpaced itself due to the high media-exposure and reached the top of its growth Channel. Now the price, after trading practically sideways for almost a full year, is now normalized and the current levels represent again its fair value. The LMACD on this 1W chart, truly puts everything in context. For a more detailed analysis, click on my May 2020 post. The idea behind it is that the Diminishing Returns are illustrated on the LMACD which tops and bottoms each time on a different Triangle while BTC tops and bottoms within its Parabolic Channel. See Triangle 1 (blue), Triangle 2 (red) and Triangle 3 (yellow), which the LMACD entered in February 2021. There is still a pending top to be made on this Yellow Triangle 3 and the LMACD is still far from it, meaning that the Cycle could indeed be lengthened once more with returns diminished and it may very well top towards the end of 2022. That means that BTC's psychological landmark of $100k may still be in play and may not even be the Cycle's Top. So what do you think about the LMACD Model? Does it 'owe' Bitcoin one last top at $100000 before the Cycle peak? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BNC:BLX
by TradingShot
38
BITCOIN Are we inside a mini cycle?I will keep this post short as it is just speculation between fractals. However as you see the whole 2021 price action for Bitcoin is similar to the two years of 2018 - 2019. Higher Lows (green bases) with the last Low breaking an MA supportive trend-line to fake potential for an even bigger correction but eventually that formed the Bottom and kick-started a rally. The 1D RSI sequences are also quite similar. A noticeable difference is that 2018 - 2019 was on Lower Highs, while 2021 on Higher Highs. What do you think? Are these two fractals comparable? If so, is BTC inside a mini cycle that has reached its bottom? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
53
Bitcoin- Pin Bar for down continuationIn my yesterday's analysis, I said that Btc CAN rise to the 40k zone, but traders should not get too excited and this, in fact, is just a correction. The main crypto didn't even had the power to touch 40k and reversed strongly from 39k, leaving a nice pin bar on our daily chart. This can be a clear signal that the correction is over and further losses can follow. At this moment, 35k acts as support and a break here should accelerate losses to 30k figure. In my opinion, rallies should be sold and as long as 40k resistance is intact my outlook remains bearish
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
21
BITCOIN ChannelUp & bearish MACD. How has it traded in the past?The talk of the week in the cryptomarket from a technical perspective is the fact that the current weekly candle (time-frame on the chart is 1W) made direct contact with the Higher Lows trend-line (bottom) of the long-term Channel Up that started after April's high last year (2021). Since that High the MACD has been descending on Lower Highs. Interestingly enough, this very same pattern (price on Channel Up with a descending MACD), has been formed another 3 + 1 times in the past. Let's see how BTC performed under this set of conditions. The most recent example was the May - October 2020 Channel Up on a descending MACD. That resulted in a bullish break-out. Before that, the January - April 2017 on a descending MACD. That also resulted in a bullish break-out. The third long-term Channel Up on a descending MACD was formed within November 2015 - March 2016. Even though the break-out traded sideways for another 2 months, the price eventually broke higher. On the other hand, the April - June 2014 Channel Up, broke to the downside but a major difference is that the MACD was ascending and not descending. In summary, we have 3 times in the past that a similar BTC Channel Up on a descending MACD broke to the upside, and 1 time when it didn't but the MACD was ascending. As a result we can argue that the only time such Channel Up pattern failed was not when the MACD was descending. Historically then the probabilities lean heavily towards making a new All Time High and not a Lower Low. What do you think? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
20
BITCOIN nightmare fractal to $23000 and below. Realistic or not?Few words on Bitcoin's latest fall as the new week seems continues with the same kind of mass selling as the previous. As the stock market is tumbling too, I run into an S&P500 fractal that might be applicable to BTC's price action since the April High. This S&P fractal take us back to the January 2018 High. That was the time when the U.S. and China started a trade war with tariffs and bands imposed by both sides. As the S&P chart on the right side (both on the 1W time-frame) shows, the index entered a 2 year Megaphone pattern. On its first sell-off it was initially supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), then the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and finally the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which broke though during the March 2020 COVID flash crash. Bitcoin (left side) has been trading inside a similar pattern since the April 2021 High. The 1W MA50 supported in June - July 2021 and currently the price is approaching the 1W MA100. A break there could set in motion another flush crash towards the 1W MA200 similar to S&P500's December 2018 crash. If that holds, it would largely confirm those long-term Megaphone bias. Do you think this comparison is realistic and a Lower Low leg is expected near $23000 or even below? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
12
BITCOIN hit the 1W EMA100!Is this the smoothest Bear Cycle ever?Bitcoin hit yesterday the EMA100 on the 1W time-frame (blue trend-line), ringing bells of April 2020. Why? Because this was the last time (on the April 20, 2020 1W candle to be exact) that BTC hit that level. That was a special time in history as Bitcoin (along with the rest of the global markets) was recovering from the March 2020 COVID led crash. Excluding this pandemic crash and under non-irregular events market conditions, the last time Bitcoin hit the 1W EMA100 from above was on the November 18 2019 1W candle. Along with the MA100 (green trend-line), they held as Supports and by January 2020 the market started to recover until the eventual COVID crash. ** The importance of the 1W EMA100 and MA100 ** It is easy thus to understand the important of the 1W EMA100 and MA100. The current chart very clearly displays their significance as pivot agents of Bear Cycles. During the previous two Bear Cycles (2014 and 2018), a break below (better yet a full closing of a 1W candle) was followed by the despair sell-off. That sell-off was in both cases (January 12 2015 and November 19 2018 1W candles) the closing sequence of the Bear Cycle that made the eventual bottom on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). What is equally useful to pay attention to is a potential MA100/ EMA100 Bearish Cross, i.e. the MA100 crossing below the EMA100. This formation during the previous two Bear Cycles (2014 and 2018) took place 3-4 weeks before the eventual Cycle bottom on the 1W MA200. Looking closely to this pattern will offer us a practical advantage to fairly accurately time the bottom. ** So is this a Bear Cycle ** Well the 1W RSI would certainly provide the basis to regard this as a Bear Cycle. As you see the RSI topped in the past two Bear Cycles on the November 25 2013 and December 11 2017 candles. In the current cycle, that RSI top took place on the January 04 2021 candle. ** It may be the smoothest Bear Cycle in Bitcoin's history ** So treating this with Bear Cycle status, it may indeed be the smoothest ever. Why? Well apart from the fact that the previous two corrected roughly -85% from their peaks and currently the 1W MA200 is less than -70% from the current peak, we had basically two tops with more than 200 days between them one in April 2021 ($65000) and the other in November 2021 ($69000). Another interesting fact to consider is that the previous two Bear Cycles lasted for 59 and 52 weeks (413 and 364 days) respectively, with their start being the absolute price peak which coincided with the RSI peak. ◾ The most recent RSI peak was on the January 04 2021 1W candle. If we use that as the starting point of the Bear Cycle then a maximum of 59 weeks (duration of the 2014 Bear Cycle ends on February 21 2022. ◾ If we count the start of this Bear Cycle from the April 12 2021 1W candle (first top), and use the 59 week max, then the Cycle ends on the May 30 2022 weekly candle. ◾ If instead we take the 52 week minimum duration of the 2018 Bear Cycle and model it on the April 12 2021 top, then the Cycle ends on the April 11 2022 1W candle. Another critical mark to consider is the 1W RSI 30.000 level. On both previous Cycle bottoms (January 12 2015 and December 10 2018 candles respectively) the RSI marginally broke below the 30.000 level and rebounded immediately to mark the end of the Bear Cycle and the start of the new Bull Cycle. ** Conclusion ** Bitcoin is currently testing the 1W EMA100 (blue). A closing below that trend-line will most likely follow with a breach of test of the MA100 (green). Keep an eye for a weekly close below those. If it doesn't take place then we may see a rebound similar to January 2020. If the price does close below, then look for the MA100/ EMA100 Bearish Cross that may be followed by the eventual market bottom on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and an RSI value of 30.000. So what is your opinion on this analysis? Do you think this Bear Cycle is the smoothest ever in Bitcoin's history and could we see a bottom on the 1W MA200 if the MA100 pair fails? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
78
BITCOIN Is this June21 all over again or a new paradigm unfolds?Another selling sequence for Bitcoin and another Lower Low since the November 10 All Time High. This (very) bearish price action is close to invalidating the paradigm that BTC is repeating the May-June-July bottom sequence. More specifically it is about to test the August 05 2021 low. A break below that Support, invalidates the whole pattern. On June 22 2021, that Support level held and BTC made its bottom that led it into the late July recovery. This time? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
42
BITCOIN fractals and the critical underlying trendline to watch!This isn't just yet another comparison of the price action since December with the fractal late August - September. This time I want to place more emphasis on how a key pivot trend-line can offer support and work in favor of a price rally. As shown on this 1D chart, the two fractals are similar, also very symmetrical as not only did both use the 39600 as Support but at the same time have a High on the 52900 Resistance level. It appears that currently we may have completed step (5) and as the RSI is rising, the Triangle (green) may soon break upwards. The 4H MA100 (red trend-line) was the confirmation signal on October 01 2021. What can further strengthen this bullish break-out case is this Underlying Pivot trend-line that started all the way from the November 10 2021 All Time High (ATH). As you see, Bitcoin was testing this from below with rejections from Nov 10 to Dec 22 and since then is pivoting at the top of the trend-line. We have seen in the past how important underlying trend-lines are for BTC, especially during uptrends (check my previous studies). Whatever the gravity of this trend-line might be, we have to pay attention to two Resistance levels on the short-term, the 4H MA100 (red trend-line) and the 52900 Symmetrical Resistance level. Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
16
BTCUSDHello traders, starting this week I will start doing my weekly analyzes for the year 2022! I wish you a happy and fulfilling New Year As I have been telling you since November 14th... in case of a weekly closing below 59600 I will prepare for SELL up to the area of 48000 or even 42000 ... BTC hit my number 3 target and bounced hard THIS WEEK...even if I was harshly criticized and many laughed at my technical analysis ... here that BTC also reached my target no. 3 and now it is very close to continue the road to 36900 or even 30000 However, being an extremely difficult area, I will wait until January to close to make a decision! if it closes over fibonacci 618 for 1 month I will look for BUY at 48k or even 53 ... if not, SELL up to 30k NOTE: Please, give a LIKE if you find this idea useful! GREAT ATTENTION: *This information is not a Financial Advice.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by BloomFX_SIGNALS
4
BITCOIN Is this a Falling Wedge bottom formation?Well the title basically sets the question right. A comparison of Bitcoin's current Falling Wedge with the previous one that lasted throughout the whole month of September, reveals many similarities. I've marked the legs with numbers with (1) being the Initial Big drop that kickstarts the Falling Wedge (with the Ichimoku green), (2) the fake break above the Wedge (with the Ichimoku in red), (3) the last flush that creates the bottom formation and initiates (4) the true break-out above the Wedge. Notice the importance of the LMACD Crosses below as well as the fact that today's flush reached as low as the September 21 2021 low, which is the current Support. Do you believe that BTC is on a 'last flush sequence' that will form the bottom and initiate the break-out? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
28
BTCUSD - in very narrow corection and...Morning Traders, I had mark entry after price break support on 45703.50 and close first candle bellow that support. At this time giving profit of 2700$. not to bad. If you open short position wait for price responds. OK, lets talk about current situation. Price is in very narrow correction. Most of the time narrow correction means price will explode either direction. At this time we do not know direction price will go. Momentum is in neutral zone then we can not open any positions. Also price touch bottom of channel. I think you know what is that means. There is a chance that price will move higher. At this time price is trap between 42263 and 41312. Again vertical red lines reflects in the FUTURE change direction. There is also support on 40467. Any candle breaking narrow correction and closing with significant length will be signal to open position one of the directions. You can always change to lower time frame to get better entry. DON'T FORGET TO LIKE THIS ANALYSIS. cheers, Jim HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT , IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by jimmycdn
2
BTCUSD - remain on Holliday...Hello Traders, HAPPY, HEALTHY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR. During Christmas nothing really happen on Bitcoin. Right now market moving sideways between 48000 and 45000. TL1 “protect” from rising Price and TL2 from falling price. As you can see 48000 its very strong resistance, price try many times break through but fail. Watch this level this is very important, first candle break trough and close above that level will be signal to potentially long position. On the other hand 46500 level will be critical support. Vertical red line indicates reversal price direction. You have pay attention to this line. When you going to open position either long or short, you can change chart to the lower time frame to make more precise position. Cheers, Jim
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by jimmycdn
3