BTCUSD - big fall of the price but...Hello Traders,
Due to strength of USD price of bit coin drop drastically. By looking on channel look like price may drop more, but I you can see there is support on the way (red line 53668. Perhaps this support will stop price but we have observe market.
This support is on last long black candle. Support and resistance always shows on open close and 50% of the candle.
Next support will be on 53000.
Momentum is is in the range of sales. May stop on the last lower trough.
Lets wait for reverse and see what will happen next
cheers,
Jim
Btcusdsignals
BITCOIN This predicted the COVID bottom and now shows the top!Bitcoin has lately taken a pause on its monthly rally that followed the July bottom, and what better time to look at some highly accurate old models and work around them to produce projections.
This is what I've done on today's idea, I've basically extended a high precision technical pattern of May 2019, which was extremely accurate at predicting the March 2020 market bottom (COVID flash-crash) and the subsequent multi-month rally that followed and brought BTC to where it is today:
As you see, that past idea was based on the BNC index, as at the time it was the BTC ticker with the longest data set. Now I have to mention at this point that geopolitical and other natural disasters such as the COVID pandemic cannot of course be predicted using technical analysis but more often than not such fundamental events are used by the markets as drivers/ catalysts in order to help at fulfilling a technical pattern.
So, the main idea behind the May 2019 analysis was that Bitcoin wasn't yet ready to start a strong rally as it had to fulfil the -0.382 Fibonacci extension trend-line. On today's analysis I've displayed these lines in blue to avoid confusion with other trend-lines on the chart. The -0.382 Fib was the lower extension of the Channel that started every time BTC started to rise after it made the bottom on the previous Cycle than the one we are currently at. As you see all such Channels (faded grey 0 - 1 Fib) start on the Higher Lows after the Bottom. In all Cycles since 2010, they have predicted the Bottom of the next Cycle with high accuracy.
The new contribution on today's study is that I've extended this methodology by incorporating the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level within those small channels into the equation. That shows that the last major High before the Cycle's ultimate top (All Time High/ ATH) is on that 0.618 Fib, if that is after the dashed red trend-line (I will talk about this and the other trend-lines next). Practically that shows that the April High was the last High before the Cycle's Top and that BTCUSD should soon start the new rally towards the Top.
Where that Top can be? Well on the current Channel the 1.0 Fib (i.e. top of the Channel) is currently around $150k. I've marked the potential Peak Zone with this Green Area, which is the band within the 0.618 and 1.0 Fibs.
That brings us to the second addition of today's idea, the different zones within Bitcoin's Parabolic Growth Channel. Now, this is not a new subject, I've analyzed this extensively over the years. This time however, I put it into a better perspective by introducing the Buy, Neutral, Sell and Overbought Zones on top of the smaller Channels mentioned above. Keep in mind that all this dataset is on the very long-term 1W (weekly) time-frame, meaning that when calling Bitcoin overbought, it is within the context of multi-year cyclical behavior not just a single day, week or month.
So as you see the Buy Zone is within the bold green and dashed green trend-lines. The Neutral Zone is within the dashed green and dashed grey trend-lines. The Sell Zone is within the dashed gery and bold red trend-lines. Finally the Overbought Zone is within the bold red and orange trend-lines. All trend-lines have major contact points on series of 1W candles on this chart and this is why the form reliable zones. Right now the price is on the top of the Neutral Zone, which is where it's always been before the final parabolic rally to a new Cycle Top.
This aggregated analysis shows that expecting a $100000 target in the coming months, isn't at all an extreme expectation, in fact it falls under the more modest projections of the model. But where do you see the next top at? Do you think that my methodology presented on this idea is accurate at predicting tops and bottoms?
Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BTCUSDAs I said last weeks,
...as I said in recent weeks, BTC is on an upward trend but being in the area of the highest point in history I can not estimate any value ... however, I will not ignore the theory of a strong withdrawal movement and I will enter SELL at the first closing week below 59600 to the area 54000 or even lower to 48600
....even if it seems unreal to many, it would seem that the BTC retraction movement is imminent!
I will remain consecvent on my idea and enter SELL if it closes below 59600
THIS WEEK... Eppur si muove!!
Even if I received 47 messages arguing that I saw an imminent withdrawal on BTC ... here it has reached my target 1 and it would seem that it goes to target 2 from where I will reanalyze ...
PS: to those who want to write to me and argue with me, please don't get tired ... this is a platform on which we all have the right to express our ideas and no one is always right!
these are just my opinions based on my analyzes and no one is obliged to follow them!
NOTE: Please, give a LIKE if you find this idea useful!
GREAT ATTENTION:
*This information is not a Financial Advice.
BITCOIN approaching its bottom. $80k target for December.The scene is familiar. Bitcoin drops and there is panic in the crypto market. This time the catalyst being used is the new COVID variant which is feared to be spreading across Europe. This shouldn't divert you from your goal and make you lose sight of the bigger picture, which is an uptrend since July's lows.
Before I start, I want to point out that today's study is a combination of two previous pieces of analysis:
As you see, both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Underlying Pivot line played a major role since I published the posts above in forming Bitcoin's trend. At the moment, BTC is below both the 1D MA50 and the Pivot line, having been rejected there a total of three times in the past 6 days.
The very same price action was seen during BTC's previous Higher Low wave from September 06 to October 01 when the price broke above the Underlying Pivot and began October's Higher High leg. Basically this is what is needed now as confirmation for the bullish signal: the price to break and close above the Pivot. If the RSI bounces off its July Support Zone (green) it would be even better.
As you see so far the pull-backs and the rallies have been fairly symmetrical since July. Assuming this pattern extends, I would expect the next Higher High (and All Time High) to be somewhere within the 2.0 Fib of the Fibonacci Channel (as each Higher High is +0.5 Fib higher than the previous) and the Fib 2.0 extension on the horizontal (blue). Thus setting a more moderate Target Zone for December right below, may be the most optimal approach. This would be around $80000. Do you agree with this pattern?
Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
P.S. Keep in mind that the current pull-back may be nothing more than the handle of a giant Cup and Handle formation towards $100k early next year as I mention on the idea below:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BTC signal Based on the technical analysis method of the price support line (Price Action)
BTCUSDT has a downtrend if the end of this week's trading session BTCUSDT closes at 50k, the downtrend will continue next week according to market sentiment.
Expected BTC price to buy in the area of 40,000usd, 30,000usd and 20,000usd
BITCOIN Why a rally is right around the cornerThis is Bitcoin on the 1W time-frame. I am using this long-term chart today because I found a unique formation occurrence that I want to share with you.
As you see BTC is currently pulling back within a Channel Up that started after the July 2021 market bottom. The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is currently in support around $46500. The exact same Channel Up was last seen forming after the March 2020 COVID flash crash which formed the market bottom at that time. The 1W MA50 was also in support then and after that Channel Up Higher Low (black curve shape) following the rejection on the previous market high (red zone designated by the red arrows) was completed, Bitcoin started a two month Parabolic Rally that exceeded the 2.0 Fibonacci extension.
Right now BTCUSD seems to be pricing that last Higher Low on the July Channel Up. As long as the 1W MA50 holds, if the price breaks above the previous All Time High again, then we have a legitimate case for a new Parabolic Rally. Notice how the RSI patterns of 2020 and 2021 are literally identical.
Do you think that history will repeat itself and a new Parabolic Rally is right around the corner? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BTCUSDAs I said last weeks,
...as I said in recent weeks, BTC is on an upward trend but being in the area of the highest point in history I can not estimate any value ... however, I will not ignore the theory of a strong withdrawal movement and I will enter SELL at the first closing week below 59600 to the area 54000 or even lower to 48600
THIS WEEK...even if it seems unreal to many, it would seem that the BTC retraction movement is imminent!
I will remain consecvent on my idea and enter SELL if it closes below 59600
NOTE: Please, give a LIKE if you find this idea useful!
GREAT ATTENTION:
*This information is not a Financial Advice.
BITCOIN The Bull Cycle is nowhere near over and may reach $200k!This is a comparison of Bitcoin's three major Cycles: The current one (2018 - 2021), the second (2014 - 2017) and the first (2011 - 2013).
As you see each Cycle starts with its Bear Cycle, with the second and the current one making a bottom on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and then starting the first phase of the Bull Cycle.
The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) plays a major role during the Bull Cycle as in all instances it has supported the uptrend and in the case of the current Cycle even more emphatically.
Right now BTC appears to be coming off the "Last shake-out phase" which is the major volatility event before the price resumes the Cycle's bullish trend and close it out with the final and more aggressive Parabolic Rally of the Cycle. This Last shake-out phase seems to be taking place every time around the time the price hits the 1.5 - 1.618 Fibonacci extension zone from the Top of the previous Cycle.
The 2.382 Fibonacci extension has a big part in the Final Parabolic Rally as in the 2011 - 2013 Cycle the Top was priced just below the extension, while in the 2014 - 2017 Cycle it was priced exactly on it. The current 2.382 Fibonacci extension sits roughly around $250000, so if the same patterns holds, it's not unreasonable to expect prices near or above 200k at the end of the current Cycle.
What do you think? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITCOIN just hit the 1D MA50, first time in 1.5 months!This is a quick short-term update on BTCUSD as the price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since October 01.
In doing so, it established the presence of a Channel Up (blue) that has been trading inside since the October 20 High. This gives rise to 2 scenarios:
a) Either the 1D MA50 holds and sustains the Channel Up whose upper break-out will eventually deliver a +/- $80000 test in December, or
b) It breaks below the 1D MA50 and the dashed Channel Up towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on an ultimate Support test that will give way to an even greater rebound towards $80000 in December, similar to the August and October rallies.
Which scenario do you think will prevail? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BTCUSD DAILY BUYING OPPORTUNITY - ANALYSIS AND TRADE IDEAHello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a LIKE and FOLLOW for more creation of free analysis. \m/
On the 4H time frame we still have a bearish environment where EMAs are cut for short and MACD below the 0 (zero), now if the market manages to break above this resistance, on the retest this is where we will take our entry, stop loss below the low and the take profit is on the daily retracement.
~TRADE SIGNAL~
BUY
Entry: 65354
Take Profit: 70929
Stop Loss: 63562
**NOTE: wait for the break and retest of the level before entering
Good luck!
You have plenty of time to achieve your target. Take it slow, observe good risk management techniques.
~FX_SHIFTER
BITCOIN The underlying Pivot line will give a big swing nextThis analysis is on the shorter-term than what I usually do, the time-frame is the 4H, but I had to bring forward to you this key Pivot Line. As you see since the October 20 High, Bitcoin has bounced on this Pivot trend-line 4 times (including today). Two time got rejected as a Resistance (red arrows) and another two bounced as a Support (green arrows). Actually the latest one it remains to be seen. The 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) is almost on the Pivot line, adding more weight to that as a Support. So will it hold?
** The September fractal **
A partial answer can be given by the very same fractal of that Pivot line seen in September (started late August). The break-out above the Pivot was short-lived then and on the 2nd test as Support, it broke rather aggressively below it again. Interestingly enough, this is where we are at now proportionally (i.e. 2nd test as Support after two as Resistance). It then traded for a whole month on Lower Lows, which the bottom coming on the 2.0 Fib extension at -25% from the Pivot's High.
Currently those analogies are within $50500 - $51500. Based on that fractal, if BTC breaks below the current Pivot Line, it possible to see such lows. Would you agree?
Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bitcoin- Bulls need price back above 66kBitcoin has reached a new ATH, close to my 70k target but couldn't sustain gains and dropped fast around 10%
The price found support in 63k old resistance zone and now is on a pullback.
66k is resistance and bulls really need to reconquer this zone
On the other hand, a drop under 63k would expose 60k support, but most importantly will be an alarm signal that an important top is in place at 69k
BITCOIN This recurring pattern shows $140k is nextI will keep this idea short. Bitcoin is reversing strongly the past two days and is testing the October 20 All Time High (ATH) of $67000. This leaves little room for the correction (even a short-term one) that many have been expecting. On the contrary it will most likely break above it and according to historic patterns, when ATH levels break, it tends to accumulate more buyers aggressively.
The same pattern has been spotted three more times in the past and on all occasions, the price reached the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (or almost in the case of December 2013). Right now the 2.0 Fib extension is roughly around $145000. Also the current LMACD sequence appears to be similar with all pre 2.0 Fib ext formations.
It gets more interesting when I apply the Fibonacci Channel starting from the April 2013 High-Low shake-out. As you see the Tops of the past two Cycles have been slightly over the 1.5 Fibonacci extension of that Channel. The current 2.0 Fib extension of the smaller pattern is just below the 1.5 Fib of the Channel. This might be this Cycle's Top. What do you think?
Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITCOIN Repeat of the 2020 parabolic rally?Every since the May 2021 sell-off, Bitcoin has been trading inside a Channel Up. On the larger scale, this is roughly within the 0.5 - 1.5 Fibonacci levels of a Fibonacci Channel Up that started after the March 2020 COVID led melt-down.
The time-frame is on the 1D and the key MA periods are the MA50 (blue trend-line) and the MA100 (green trend-line). It appears as if the Channel Up of 2021 is repeating that of 2020. If indeed that's the case, then as long as the 1D MA100 supports, it is very likely to see a break-out well above the Channel's top of the 1.5 Fib followed by a parabolic rally towards the 2.5 - 3.0 Fib extension zone. Even if that seems unlikely to you, consider that this may even be a moderate target as on the Fibonacci Retracement Scale (blue Fibs), the 2020 rally extended as high as Fib 4.0 (in early 2021). If it reaches the 3.0 Fib, that's $185000, even the 2.0 Fib is at the $100k benchmark.
How realistic a repeat of the 2020 parabolic rally do you think is within this Fibonacci Channel? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------