Get started

Btcusdsignals

BITCOIN accumulation to June, then rally. 5 year cheat-sheet.Today I am presenting to you a hidden phase cheat-sheet on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) that I've been working on this week. The time-frame is the 1W (weekly). As you see, since the 2017 rally, Bitcoin has gone through three Phases of Rally - Accumulation - Bear. The astonishing fact is that time-wise all have been symmetrical to each other: * The Bear Phase lasts 44 weeks (308 days) while the Accumulation Phase lasts 15 weeks (105 days). Every time the Accumulation ends, the Rally Phase starts. * Approximately, we can estimate the peaks of the Rallies and end of the Bear Phases using the Fibonacci Time Extensions. Starting measuring from the Peak of the first Rally (0.0 Fib) and the end of the first Bear (1.0 Fib), we can see on the 1.5 Fib extension, the Rally roughly peaked (was just 2 weeks after the extension). The end of the Bear Phase was +1.0 Fib after, i.e. the 2.5 Fib extension. The peak of the next Rally was roughly on the 3.25 Fib ext and +1.0 Fib after was the end of the third Bear Phase. Based on this model, we have been within the third Accumulation Phase since the February 21 1W candle. Assuming that symmetry continues to hold, this phase should last again 15 weeks, which times its end on the June 06 1W candle. Then the fourth Rally Phase should start and it would be a good idea to sell around the 5.0 Fibonacci Time Extension, even though the model's progression suggests it can go as long as the 5.25 extension. Note that the RSI indicator on the 2W time-frame (below the chart price action), can offer an additional estimate with regards to when to have a confirmed buy. That will be when the RSI breaks above the MA line (yellow) again (for the 2nd time in the Cycle). Keep in mind that in Phase 2 that took place while the price was still within the Bear Phase, as the March 2020 COVID sell-off distorted the data short-term. That was a Black Swan event that is very unlikely to take place again at least that soon. Still, it gave a very accurate buy signal. So what do you think about this 5 year old model? Does it offer enough evidence to you that the market is accumulating, and is on the best buy levels before an upcoming Rally? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
63
BITCOIN correlation with stock market volatility and Halvings.As Bitcoin (BTCUSD) adoption goes on and more institutional investors enter the market, the correlation of BTC and stocks becomes more and more tight. That is a paradigm that the cryptoworld struggled to come to terms with in the past but is now more real than ever. A healthy stock market is good for Bitcoin. The current analysis depicts exactly that notion in terms of Growth and Volatility while incorporating a key parameter of BTC, the Halvings. ** What is a Halving? ** First of all, in case you are a newcomer in the cryptospace, what is a Halving? It is the most pivotal events on Bitcoin's blockchain and is when the payout for mining a new block is halved. This induces inflation in the price, reducing the number of BTC in circulation, thus increasing demand. It happens after every 210,000 blocks (approximately four years). Because of increased demand, Halvings historically tend to create aggressive price rallies after the event. ** Stock market Growth and Volatility phases ** This chart is on the 1W time-frame and as mentioned displays Bitcoin (orange trend-line) against the stock market in the form of the S&P500 index (blue trend-line). The stock market since 2011 has gone through clear phases of Growth (green zone) and Volatility (blue zone). Out of the past three Bitcoin Cycles, two of them make almost exact matches: BTC's Bear Cycles with Stocks' Volatility Phases and BTC Bull Cycles/ Rally Phases with Stocks' Growth Phases. Slight exception was 2013/14, where BTC peaked in November 2013 but the stock market Growth Phase continued for another year. By the time the stock market volatility started, BTC had already made the bottom of its Bear Cycle. We may have a similar situation with the current BTC Cycle as well. Assuming that BTC's peak was in April 2021 and not November 2021 (slightly higher high), then as in 2013/14, the stock market Growth extended almost 1 year after BTC's peak. If that's the case and the correlation continues to hold, then BTC's bottom was priced early this year as the stock market volatility has started since the start of 2022. Another interesting element is that the middle of the Stock market volatility phase has always been very close to BTC's Bear Cycle bottom level. Technically, that appears the most optimal level overall historically to buy with confidence for the long-term. If the current Stock volatility phase lasts 84 weeks as in 2015, then its middle should be around October 2022. If however the volatility phase lasts as long as 2018/2019 (107 weeks), then its middle should be around January 2023. Note that a Volatility phase that long would match almost perfectly with the next Halving of March 2024, which as mentioned at the start of the analysis, kick-starts BTC's Parabolic Rally. Do you think this is a good correlation to time a solid buy entry on Bitcoin? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
31
BITCOIN A correlation with US10Y and EURUSD hints to a rallyThis is a simple yet very insightful correlation of Bitcoin (BTCUSD orange trend-line) with the US10Y (blue trend-line) and the EURUSD (green trend-line) pair. The analysis compares the 2014 - 2018 era with 2018 - 2022. As you see, when the EURUSD pair peaks, BTC tends to form (or be close to form) a top on its Bull Cycle, hence starting its Bear Cycle. Similarly, when the EURUSD pair bottoms and starts rallying, BTC tends to start the aggressive rally of its Bull Cycle (note that normally it is well past its bottom formation). At the same time, when the US10Y peaks, BTC makes (or is around) the bottom of its Bear Cycle and starts its Bull Cycle. Similarly, when the US10Y bottoms and starts rallying, BTC tends to start the aggressive part of its Bull Cycle (as in the case of the EURUSD). Currently, on this 1W chart, the US10Y is on a small pull-back. Based on the above, if this pull-back is sustained, we may see Bitcoin form the bottom of the Bear Cycle of the past 12 months and gradually start rising again. The final confirmation of an upcoming parabolic rally can be when the EURUSD bottoms out, but as mentioned EURUSD bottoms a bit later than BTC. How accurate do you think those correlations are? Do you also agree that if the US10Y reverses, BTC will start a new Bull Cycle? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
15
BTCUSD | New perspective | Follow-up detailsIn this video, I have explained why I still hold the opinion that bullish momentum is evolving for Bitcoin... With a demand zone coupled with a key level identified at 39,500/40,000 area; I am looking to buy the Bitcoin above this zone in the coming week. Let's see how the price reacts in the coming week and I shall keep you updated in the comment section on my tradingview account Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by darcsherry
BITCOIN A medium-term update on the Channel Up.This is a Bitcoin (BTCUSD) update on my April 06 analysis on the Channel Up structure: With the price getting rejected last Thursday on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but holding and closing all 1D candles above the First Support of Higher Lows (green trend-line), Bitcoin has entered a strong consolidation phase on the short-term. The longer it goes, the more that looks as a bottom formation, even though the hard Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up is a bit lower. As the 1D RSI has formed Higher Lows, a 1D candle close above the 1D MA50 would translate into an immediate rise towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) where the price got rejected on the last Channel Higher High on March 28. A closing above that level further opens the way for a technical new Higher High formation, which has an upside limit on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, currently around 50650. This price action should continue to trade the Channel Up pattern until either the 52150 Resistance (December 27 High) or the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) break (long-term bullish and bearish break-out respectively). Which break-out do you think will come first? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
25
BITCOIN The USD is approaching a level of historic BTC rallies!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) turned again lower on the short-term following yesterday's pull-back on the stock markets due to Powell's remarks on a May 50 basis points hike. The long-term outlook however remains intact and is further enhanced by the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which is approaching a critical Resistance trend-line. As this 1W chart shows, every time the DXY (bottom chart) hits its 5 year Lower Highs trend-line, it gets rejected towards the 90.000 level or lower. At the same time, as the USD is devalued against major currencies, Bitcoin starts an aggressive (parabolic) rally. The last two times it was the 2017 rally and the post COVID crash 2020 rally. As you see, I've drawn BTC's own Higher Lows Zone that acts as a Support since 2017. In fact if we ignore the Black Swan event of the March 2020 COVID crash, we see that the Diverging Higher Lows trend-line offers an absolute Support since 2017 with multiple contact points that sustained the long-term logarithmic uptrend, and is now very close to the current price action. So what's your opinion about this potential rejection of DXY? Will it be enough to start a new parabolic rally on Bitcoin? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
50
BTCUSD | New perspective | Follow-up detailsAs speculated in my previous speculation on this pair (see link below for reference purposes), in the last 24 hours, price action has began to express bullish opportunity as we witness a a quick rejection of the bullish trendline identified on the daily timeframe. For those who missed the buy opportunity that happened yesterday, It is pertinent that we take a pill of patience at this juncture in the market and wait for a possible retracement into a significant demand level for another wave if it finally happens. I shall definitely keep you updated on my tradingview account as price action is been monitored, Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by darcsherry
BITCOIN Can it rise that fast that quickly?As Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as a Resistance, following a Higher Low two days ago on the 2022 Channel Up, it is time to look into the bigger picture again and see where we are at on the long-term Channel Up that started after the April 14 2021 High, which is a pattern that I first introduced on this channel on January 25 2022: ** Is this a near perfect symmetry ** First of all let's start by pointing out that so far, the time period between the Channel's two Higher Highs and two Higher Lows has been almost the same (210 days against 216 respectively). Assuming the next Higher High has the same distance from the previous, that times it on June 08 2022. Even if we use the distance from the Higher Low to Higher High measurement (which however so far gives only one event), which is 140 days, that places the next Higher High on June 13. Can Bitcoin rise that high that quickly? ** Where are we in relation to the last bottom? Ichimoku, RSI and MACD approaches ** One way to answer this is to determine where we are based on the last bottom/ Higher Low of the Channel Up. The March 28 High got rejected on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). A similar but only near rejection was made on June 15 2021, so that is too soon on the previous fractal. On the other hand, the fact that since April 11, the price entered and stayed within the green Ichimoku Cloud, brings us to the similar September 20 - October 01 2021 stage. That is matched fairly well by the RSI of the two periods. Perhaps the most important is the MACD indicator, which is displayed on the 1W time-frame, in order to put emphasis on the Bullish Cross. That happened on March 30 2022 and August 19 2021, roughly when the Ichimoku Cloud turned green. That was just before the March 28 2022 High (1D MA200 rejection) and the September 06 2021 High. Now the MACD is about to cross again into a Bearish Cross, which needs to be avoid in order to keep the fractal intact. Same as it was avoided on September 26 2021, while the price was trading inside the green Ichimoku Cloud. ** What if we are still forming the bottom? ** If the above indicators are the case, then this suggests that this time the uptrend to a Higher High is much less aggressive than in 2021. That is to a big extend justified by the fact that the Ukraine - Russia war kept BTC and the whole market low in February - March, as the (highly correlated) stock market had a strong correction. As a result BTC may not be at its full potential right now and fairly underpriced in relation to the 2021 leg. However, since the 1D MA200 hasn't been broken (yet), we may assume that it is possible to still be forming the bottom and the recent pull-back be similar to that of August 01 - 05 2021, which was half-way through the first phase of the rally that got Bitcoin out of the bottom's consolidation. In that case, there is still enough potential to make a new Higher High (and All Time High as a matter of fact) but could take longer, roughly end of July. Bonus fact: See how important the Fibonacci retracement levels of the Channel Up are. The recent 1D MA200 rejection took place on the 0.382 Fib, the Sept 21 2021 low stopped on the 0.236 Fib, the Sept 06 2021 High on the 0.618 Fib and many other examples. Based on the above facts, do you think it is realistic to expect Bitcoin to rise this fast that quickly? Or are we just getting out of the new bottom formation of the Channel Up? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
28
BTCUSD | New perspectiveSince my last publication on this pair, we witnessed over 7,000pips move (see link below for reference purposes) and the price is right back at where we were a couple of months ago. With a significant bullish trendline identified on the daily timeframe; we might want to be looking at a bullish expectation in the next couple of days as long the price does not break below this line. In this video, I explained why I think we should be anticipating a bullish momentum. I shall bring up updates as price action is been monitored in the next couple of days... Stay tuned in! Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by darcsherry
1
BITCOIN spot market bottoms and reversals using DOW's Stoch RSII've made countless analyses in the past pointing out the high correlation between Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the stock markets. In that context, I was running a few regressions of BTC against Dow Jones (DJI) in particular and found an indicator that has spotted all of Bitcoin's historic market bottoms with 100% accuracy. That is the rather undervalued Stochastic RSI. As this chart on the 1W time-frame shows, the 1W Stoch RSI of Dow Jones is currently on a slight pull-back having made an absolute bottom on the 0.00 reading in late February. Notice how all Stoch RSI swings at or near 0.00 have been market bottoms for Bitcoin: September 11, August 2015, January 2016, December 2018 and March 2020. When the RSI broke above the 20.00 level again it started a consolidation phase, which never looked back and eventually led to a parabolic rally. As you may see, all initial breaks above the 20.00 Stoch RSI level, posted a pull-back soon after (red and green arrows). Once the pull-back was completed on the green arrow, the Parabolic Rally on Bitcoin started. This is strong evidence that the market has made its bottom on the current Cycle. What we need to pay attention to now is when Dow's Stoch RSI will reverse again. That will be the time that Bitcoin breaks upwards and won't look back. From a long-term investors perspective, Bitcoin's current price level is a good of a buy as it can get. Wouldn't you agree based on this correlation? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! * NOTE: I don't know why Dow's price chart also shows up. Drag the Stoch RSI pane in order to maximize it over Dow's price and better see the correlation with Bitcoin. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
31
BITCOIN A short-term set-upThis is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 4H time-frame. A good short-term set-up is emerging as both the candle action and the 4H RSI are forming a sequence similar to the March 07 - March 12 pattern, which was a Higher Low on the 'First Support Higher Lows trend-line' that I introduced last Tuesday. As you see, the price is at the stage where it is below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Red Ichimoku and is about to come outside of the consolidation pattern. When that happened in March, it took the price around 9 days to break above the previous Resistance, which on the current fractal is at 41590. When that broke, Bitcoin rallied and made a top on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (roughly above 48000), which was the March 28 Higher High of the 1D Channel Up. The 2.0 Fib extension on the current pattern is at 43960. A break below the Support of 39200 could be enough to invalidate this trading set-up. Do you think it will play out or get invalidated? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
18
BITCOIN is just getting out of this Cycle's bottom. Huge upside!In late February I posted the following analysis regarding Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) clear Bottom patterns on every Cycle, making valid arguments why January - February was a cyclical bottom formation for Bitcoin: The price has posted a new bullish leg since then, and it appears that we are on the right track to start a steady but strong rise again long-term. Notice how the price remains within the long-term Buy Zone, thus staying (in cyclical terms) still a solid long-term buy. On the current analysis, I am extending this chart a bit by adding a very interesting feature on a Cycle's horizon: The measurement from one bottom pattern to the next. As you see, on this 1W time-frame, the distance of the lowest level of the 1st Bottom pattern to the lowest level of the 2nd Bottom pattern was 183 weeks (1281 days). Similarly the measurement from the lowest level of the 2nd Bottom pattern to the the lowest level of the 3rd Bottom pattern was 171 weeks (1197 days). Finally (assuming January 2022 is indeed a bottom pattern), the distance from the lowest level of the 3rd Bottom pattern to the the lowest level of the 4th (current) Bottom pattern has been 165 weeks (1155 days). It is obvious that each sequence gets shorter in time by a factor of roughly 80 - 50 days. As a result in arithmetic progression terms we can claim that +/- some days, Bitcoin is coming out of this Cycle's bottom. The previous analysis of November shows that the price never hits the peak of the previous Cycle, so naturally 20k is out of the question. The big question is will it trend more or less aggressively this time? As mentioned above, as long as the price remains within the green zone, it remains a long-term buy. It is when it breaks above (usually on news/ strong fundamentals of adoption etc) that the real Parabolic Rally begins. I assume noone wants to be left behind. So what do you think about this Bottom fractal chart? Is BTC a good enough buy for you as it is on the current levels? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
106
BITCOIN Is the correction over?This is an update to last week's medium-term analysis that was centered around Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Channel Up and the bearish - bullish break-out levels: ** Bearish break-out on clear levels ** As you see, the Flag pattern, that started after the price made a new Higher High at the top of the Channel Up, failed to break above the (bullish) invalidation level (48,300) and instead broke below the Flag's bottom (Lower Lows). After a short consolidation around the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), it also broke below the Internal Higher Lows trend-line. All levels were clearly mentioned on that idea last week. ** The 1st Higher Lows trend-line ** Now on today's analysis, I will make one small but can turn out to be critical addition to the technical mix. That is the First Higher Lows trend-line (green line) which is parallel to those (Higher Lows) of the bottom of the Channel Up. As the chart shows, this has offered a support and bounce point to Bitcoin six times since January 27. The price came yesterday just a fraction before hitting it and we already see a minor rebound reaction. ** The MACD and Death Cross ** On top of all these, the 4H MACD indicator is about to make a Bullish Cross, and is in a similar position as it was on the February 24 bottom. Interestingly enough, that previous (Feb 24) bottom that made a new Higher Low on the Channel Up, took place exactly when the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) crossed below the 4H MA200 and formed the well-known Death Cross pattern. Technically, we are just one day before those two trend-lines form a new Death Cross. Will those be enough to form a bottom now and extend today's small bounce into a larger medium-term rebound within the Channel Up, or the price will make one last pull-back for a 'clean' Higher Low at the bottom of the Channel Up? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
23
BTCUSD don't BUY yet!Hi fellow traders, I've been posting many charts on BTCUSD lately because we are getting closer and closer to the point where we will see Bitcoin rise once again. It is important to look at the bigger picture now on the weekly. I believe this is a large corrective structure in the shape of an expanding flat pattern. Thus we will break de previous bottom at 28k and we should see a sharp rise from anywhere within the blue box. I will keep updating the BTCUSD chart on smaller TF's. For now, stay patient guys. Goodluck!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by OGwavetrader
2
BITCOIN Cycle's Fib Supports intact with the 1D MA50 supporting.I have made numerous analysis on multiple time-frames comparing the April 2021 - April 2022 Cycle to that of July 2019 - September 2020. This time I am adding one more element on the 1W time-frame: The Fibonacci retracement levels. As you see, Bitcoin (BTCUSD ) is currently trading within the 0.382 - 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels with the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) supporting. The 1W RSI has broken above its MA since the March 14 1W candle, which signaled the bullish break-out above the 1D MA50 and the end of the 3 month consolidation phase at the bottom of the correction since the November 2021 High. That is a very similar position Bitcoin had in early May 2020 i.e. trading within 0.382 - 0.618 Fib with the 1D in support and the 1W RSI above its MA. What followed was roughly a 4 month slow rise of Higher Highs and Higher Lows first within Fib 0.382 - 0.618 and then 0.618 - 0.786. What does this mean for us now? This suggests that if Bitcoin manages to hold the 0.382 Fib as Support and consolidate, it is more likely to see a Higher High to 55k (0.785 Fib roughly) and then by the end of Q3 a test of the All Time High. Do you expect it to hold? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
41