BTC/USD) Bullish reversal analysis Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update
This is a bullish reversal analysis on BTC/USD (Bitcoin to USD) on the 4-hour chart, suggesting a potential long opportunity after a sharp corrective move.
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Key Breakdown of the Chart:
1. Strong Downward Move with Potential Reversal:
Bitcoin experienced a sharp drop from the 88k region to ~74,387.50, now hitting a key demand zone (marked as "Orderblock").
2. Bullish Reaction Expected:
From the Orderblock support zone, a bullish reversal is anticipated.
The projected move aims to fill the imbalance and test the target zone between 87,152.94 and 88,557.14.
3. RSI Oversold:
RSI is around 32.27, indicating oversold conditions and adding confluence for a potential bounce.
4. EMA (200):
The 200 EMA lies around 85,153.85, which may act as dynamic resistance on the way up.
Mr SMC Trading point
5. Price Target:
The expected upside move is approximately +13,722.85 points (+18.75%), aiming for the supply zone above 87k.
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Conclusion / Trade Idea:
Entry Zone: Near 74,387.50, the orderblock/demand area.
Target Zone: 87,152.94 – 88,557.14
Bias: Bullish short- to mid-term reversal.
Confluences: Oversold RSI, clean support zone, potential trendline bounce, and price inefficiency above.
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Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
BTCUSDT
BTCUSDT📊 Bitcoin Weekly Analysis – Smart Money Concept (SMC)
On the 1W BTC/USDT chart, we are currently observing a corrective move after a strong bullish impulse. The price is approaching a high-probability demand zone formed between two significant Fair Value Gaps (FVGs):
• 🔹 FVG 3M around $74,000
• 🔹 FVG M around $66,000
🟩 Long Setup Zone:
The area between these FVGs represents a discounted price zone where smart money is likely to step in. This is labeled as a “zone for long position” on the chart.
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🧠 Smart Money Perspective:
• The market is in a retracement phase, targeting inefficiencies (FVGs).
• If price taps into this zone and shows signs of bullish intent (e.g., weekly bullish engulfing, BOS/CHOCH on lower timeframes), we can expect a strong upward move.
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🎯 Mid-to-Long Term Target:
• Based on the current market structure and SMC model, the next major target is $130,000.
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🔐 Risk Management:
• Ideal entry: within the FVG zone
• Stop-loss: below the lower FVG (around $65,000)
• Confirmation: bullish price action on lower timeframes or weekly candle close with strong momentum
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📌 Conclusion:
This setup offers a potential high-reward opportunity if smart money reacts to this discounted zone. Patience and proper confirmation are key.
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BTCUSD TECHNICALS & FUNDAMENTALSKey Technical Details:
Support: Price is resting on the lower trendline of the channel and right above a potential breakout level.
Resistance: The upper channel line sits around $85,000, which aligns with the previous rejection zone.
Bullish Scenario: If BTC bounces off this level and breaks above the short-term resistance, expect a potential move toward $85K and beyond.
Bearish Scenario: A clean breakdown below the trendline could take BTC back to $77,000–$75,000.
Volume Note: There's a notable decrease in volume, indicating indecision—often a sign of a potential breakout soon.
💡 Bias:
Currently neutral to bullish as long as BTC stays within the channel.
📰 Fundamental Analysis (April 8, 2025)
🧨 What’s Moving the Markets Today:
Fallout from April 7’s Inflation Print:
The U.S. CPI data came in hotter than expected, rekindling fears of delayed Fed rate cuts.
This led to panic selling across equities, forex, and crypto on April 7. BTC dropped sharply in reaction.
🌍 Today’s Probabilities:
Macro Uncertainty Continues:
With the inflation shock still rippling, risk-on assets like Bitcoin are in a sensitive zone.
Traders await Fed speakers and FOMC minutes later this week for further cues.
🏦 Institutional Sentiment:
Cautiously Bullish: Institutions aren’t exiting yet, but are being very selective.
BTC’s long-term structure remains strong unless it breaks down from the channel.
✅ Summary:
BTC is consolidating after a post-CPI dump.
A bounce here could send it toward $85K, but a breakdown risks retesting $75K.
Fundamentally, macro pressure remains, so any bullish breakout must be backed by a shift in market sentiment.
WHY CADJPY IS BULLISH ?? DETAILED ANALYSIS CAD/JPY is currently trading around 104.200, forming a falling wedge pattern—a technical indicator often suggestive of a potential bullish reversal. Traders are closely monitoring this setup for a breakout, which could potentially propel the pair toward the target price of 107.000, indicating a prospective gain of approximately 300 pips.
Fundamentally, the Canadian dollar's performance is closely tied to global oil prices, given Canada's status as a major oil exporter. Recent stability in oil markets has provided underlying support to the loonie. Conversely, the Japanese yen, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven currency, has experienced fluctuations influenced by shifts in global risk sentiment and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy stance. The divergence in economic indicators and central bank policies between Canada and Japan may contribute to the anticipated bullish momentum in the CAD/JPY pair.
Technical analysis reinforces this outlook. The falling wedge pattern observed on the charts is characterized by converging trendlines sloping downward, indicating diminishing bearish momentum. A decisive breakout above the upper trendline of the wedge, accompanied by increased trading volume, would serve as a confirmation of the bullish reversal. Key resistance levels to monitor include 105.000 and 106.000, with a sustained move above these thresholds enhancing the likelihood of reaching the 107.000 target.
Traders should exercise prudent risk management strategies, such as setting appropriate stop-loss orders, to mitigate potential market volatility. Additionally, staying informed about upcoming economic data releases and central bank communications from both Canada and Japan will be crucial in navigating this trade effectively. By aligning technical insights with fundamental developments, traders can position themselves to capitalize on the potential bullish breakout in the CAD/JPY pair.
$BTC is at a critical pointThis is a follow-up to my previous warning about a potential CRYPTOCAP:BTC correction, published in December 2024:
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At this stage, CRYPTOCAP:BTC is at a critical juncture. If we compare the current situation to previous corrections, we can observe that the RSI has reached a potential reversal zone, and price action is currently showing some resilience.
📍 The $81K level appears to be strongly defended by the bulls.
Two scenarios are now in play:
1️⃣ Bearish Continuation
If the MACD continues its downward move and the RSI drops below 30%, we could see this consolidation phase extending until July 2025. In this case, CRYPTOCAP:BTC may revisit the $72K zone.
2️⃣ Bullish Reversal
If the MACD has already bottomed out, we could witness a bullish rally over the next 3–4 months. This would likely propel CRYPTOCAP:BTC to a new all-time high.
Unfortunately, the SPX500 correction adds a layer of uncertainty. Had the traditional markets not started to retrace, the odds of a solid bounce from current BTC levels would have been near 100%.
For now, everything depends on how strong and well-funded the bulls are—can they offset macro pressure and prevent CRYPTOCAP:BTC from sinking with the TradFi indices?
🚨 Do Your Own Research (DYOR)
BTCUSDT 4H | Rebound, Consolidation, Down or Up?Hello Everyone,
Greetings,
BTCUSDT 4H |
As we can see together, BTCUSDT is experiencing a rebound in the WEEKLY trendline resistance area & WEEKLY FVG.
If we observe further, we can also see the 200 Moving Average (MA) at the $84,000 area, and there’s also a Triple Bottom marked with a red circle.
So it can be assumed that the BTCUSDT market is likely to consolidate further while waiting for a strong Volume/Candle to either GO UP (target $99,000) or GO DOWN (target $73,800).
Remember, trading involves high risk, so please do your own research.
BITCOIN | 1 DAY | '' Bitcoin will fall to $72,000 ''Hey everyone 💙
In the long run, I expect BINANCE:BTCUSD to drop to around $72,000. But don’t worry—this could actually be a sign of a massive rally ahead. If you're holding spot positions, there's no need to panic!
Big moves up often come after strong corrections. In my opinion, this dip is just a profit-taking phase, and the whales are setting the stage to push Bitcoin above $100K in the long term.
If you enjoy these insights, don’t forget to hit that like button🚀
BTC/USDT 1DAY CHART UPDATE !!A downward trendline connecting the recent high points indicates bearish pressure.
A horizontal support level around 77,500 USDT shows where the price has struggled to drop.
Current Price:
As of your chart's timestamp, BTC is trading at approximately 79,883.75 USDT.
Potential Movement:
If the price can break above the descending trendline and stay above the support level, there could be potential upward momentum. The upward arrow suggests a bullish outlook.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: Look for resistance at trendline breaks and the next significant levels above the current price (e.g., 82,500 USDT).
Support: The 77,500 USDT level is crucial; a drop below it could signal further downward movement.
If you found this analysis helpful, hit the Like button and share your thoughts or questions in the comments below. Your feedback matters!
Thanks for your support!
DYOR. NFA
BTC 3D Market BreakdownBitcoin is currently trading around $79,200 on the 3-day chart and is sitting just above the key 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from its most recent macro impulse. The chart shows a clear descending trendline acting as dynamic resistance, reinforcing the ongoing downward pressure on price. Until this trendline is broken and retested from above, market structure remains bearish in the mid-term.
After a strong rally to $108K, BTC was rejected near the 0.25 Fibonacci level at $93K. Since then, it’s formed a series of lower highs, confirming that bulls are losing momentum. The 0.385 retracement level, which aligns with the $85K region, has now acted as resistance multiple times, indicating a strong ceiling unless volume and price action shift.
Price is now hovering above the 0.5 retracement area (~$78K–$79K). If this zone fails to hold, Bitcoin is likely headed toward the 0.618 Fib level near $73,747. This level also aligns with the previous all-time high from November 2021, adding to its historical importance. While some buyers may attempt to defend that level for a short-term bounce, the real macro demand lies lower.
The green zone around GETTEX:64K to $61K is the highest confluence support area. It matches both the 0.75 and 0.785 Fibonacci retracement levels, and overlaps with the major accumulation and breakout structure from Q4 of 2024. If BTC trades down into that region, it would present a much higher probability bounce zone and a potential macro higher low — if bulls can defend it.
Until Bitcoin flips the descending trendline and reclaims $85K with conviction, the market structure favors downside continuation. A reclaim of $85K would be a significant signal for bullish momentum to return, especially if it comes with a breakout retest of the trendline. For now, however, the path of least resistance remains to the downside, with $69K and then GETTEX:64K –$61K as the next key support zones to watch.
In summary, Bitcoin remains in a corrective structure beneath its trendline. A move into $69K may offer a reaction, but the most meaningful support lies in the GETTEX:64K –$61K macro zone. Patience is key here, as buyers wait for either deeper value or a clear shift in trend.
BTC.... HOLD THE LINE!!!!BTC is still on a daily downtrend however every lower time frame structure can provide evidence of a reversal. Bitcoins price is at critical levels of support and as long it holds the line Class Bullish Divergence is all we need to get some follow-through. CHOCH is the evidence we need.
Full TA: Link in the BIO
Shorting BitcoinBINANCE:BTCUSDT
Bitcoin put a massive Bearish Engulfing Candle yesterday, with high volume, which is very bearish, and now I’m expecting it to continue to decline.
It also tends to follow the US Indices, which are heading lower.
My target is about 70k, maybe even lower.
Good luck to you
We are at the decision line. As you can see, the situation is quite clear. If it supports this decision line, new Ath is on its way. But if it cannot support, a bloodbath is on its way.
* The purpose of my graphic drawings is purely educational.
* What i write here is not an investment advice. Please do your own research before investing in any asset.
* Never take my personal opinions as investment advice, you may lose your money.
Bitcoin Attempts to Bounce from Key Support ZoneIn our last BTC post, we mentioned that decision time had arrived—and the market has made its move. The downtrend is resuming with max-pain.
Today, Bitcoin tested a major support zone at 72,000–74,000. This area, once a key resistance, now serves as critical support.
Now, another decision point is approaching. Will the market recover and Bitcoin follow, pushing toward the upper boundary of the trend channel? Or will a break below this support send BTC toward the lower edge of the channel, triggering a strong move that shakes out the bulls before a potential recovery?
Critical zone for Bitcoin – Pump or Dump!(Mid-term Analysis)Today, I want to analyze Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) on a weekly time frame so that you can take a mid-term view of BTC. On November 12, 2024 , I shared with you another weekly analysis in which we found the All-Time High(ATH) zone well.
Please stay with me.
Bitcoin has been on an upward trend for the past 27 months , increasing by about +600% . Have you been able to profit from this upward trend in Bitcoin?
During these 27 months , Bitcoin has had two significant corrections , the first correction -20% and the second correction -33% (interestingly, both corrections lasted about 5 months ).
Another thing we can understand from the two main corrections is that the second correction is bigger than the first correction , and since Bitcoin is currently in the third correction , we can expect the third correction to be either equal to the second correction or greater than the second correction . Of course, this is just an analysis that should be placed alongside the analyses below .
It seems that the start of Bitcoin's correction can be confirmed with the help of the Adam & Adam Double Top Pattern(AADT) . Bitcoin also created a fake breakout above the Resistance lines .
Educational tip : The Adam & Adam Double Top (AADT) is a bearish reversal pattern characterized by two sharp, ^-shaped peaks at nearly the same price level. It indicates strong resistance and a potential trend reversal once the price breaks below the neckline between the peaks.
Bitcoin appears to be completing a pullback to the broken neckline .
According to Elliott's Wave theory , Bitcoin seems to have completed its 5 impulse waves , and we should wait for corrective waves . It is a bit early to determine the structure of the corrective waves , but I think it will have a Zigzag Correction . The structure of the corrective waves depends on the news and events of the coming weeks and months.
I think the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) will be a very sensitive zone for Bitcoin.
I expect Bitcoin to start correcting again when it approaches $87,000 or $90,000 at most, and fills the CME Gap($86,400_$85,595) , and at least approaches the Heavy Support zone($73,800_$59,000) AFTER breaking the uptrend line .
In your opinion, has Bitcoin finished its correction or created an opportunity for us to escape again?
Note: If Bitcoin goes above $90,500, we should expect further increases and even make a new All-Time High(ATH).
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), Weekly time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Moment: Eyes on $70KBitcoin price almost reached the $74k support area, which is critical for the bull run continuation.
This zone has acted as a strong resistance in the past, and a clean bounce from here could signal renewed strength and confidence in the market.
However, if this support fails to hold and BTC closes the weekly candle below the $70k level, it would likely mark the end of the current bull phase and signal the beginning of a distribution phase or even the early stages of a new bear market.
That doesn’t necessarily mean Bitcoin will crash straight to $50k — corrections are rarely that linear. But it would drastically reduce the chances of seeing new all-time highs in this cycle.
The next rally, if it happens, would probably be more muted and shorter-lived.
Hopefully BTC will manage to avoid this scenario and hold above the support area.
On the positive side, if BTC holds above $70k and we see strong demand stepping in, it could set the stage for a healthy bounce and continuation of the uptrend.
Still I expect that BTC will test 70k level and if we see strong buying pressure on that level we can expect some recovery.
Bitcoin Holding Strong — Next Stop: $150K?BTCUSDT Technical analysis update
BTC price is currently retesting its major support zone, which was previously a strong resistance area, now acting as support at the $70K–$75K level. The price has just touched the $75K support zone, and we can expect a consolidation above the $70K level followed by a potential bounce back or a V-shaped recovery from the current level.if we see a strong bounce from the current support level, the next potential target could be around $150K
Bitcoin drops. What's next?Hello, Traders!
Bitcoin price continues to fall towards the next big support area at 74k-70k.
Currently, there is no sign of BTC reversal, and it seems that this correction phase will last long.
Ideally, the faster BTC finds its local bottom, the faster it starts to rise again.
However, the current market conditions suggest that a period of consolidation might be necessary before a meaningful recovery.
I doubt that the BTC price will fall below 70k despite all the negative sentiment surrounding it at the moment.
More likely, we will see strong buying pressure at those levels, as institutional investors and long-term holders step in to accumulate at what they perceive as a discount.
Also, the stochastic RSI on a weekly scale has dropped to 0, which historically indicates that momentum is oversold and a potential reversal could be near.
If we see a bullish cross on the SRSI on a weekly timeframe, this might act as a catalyst for a price rebound, possibly pushing BTC toward new highs.
Another indication of a possible bottom is the Fear & Greed Index, which currently sits at around 20.
This level reflects extreme fear in the market, a condition that has often preceded local bottoms in previous cycles.
Historically, such extreme fear tends to trigger a shift in sentiment, leading to increased demand and a subsequent price recovery.
Furthermore, on-chain metrics suggest that long-term holders remain unfazed by the recent downturn, with exchange reserves continuing to decline. This indicates that a significant portion of BTC supply is being moved to cold storage, reducing selling pressure.
Additionally, open interest in the futures market has seen a decline, which could mean that excessive leverage is being flushed out—a necessary step for a healthier market structure.
If BTC manages to hold the 70k support level and confirms a reversal with increasing volume, we could see a strong recovery phase unfold.
However, if the price breaks below this key support, the next significant area to watch would be around 65k, where additional buying interest might emerge.
Please don’t forget to boost this idea and leave your comments below.
Market overview
WHAT HAPPENED?
Last week, US President Donald Trump announced the amount of trade duties on imported goods. Bitcoin was restrained from falling in the $83,600–$82,500 zone, but the selling pressure turned out to be stronger, and we updated the local minimum.
At the moment, we’ve dropped to the buy zone of $77,000–$73,000 (volume anomalies pushing volumes). Volumes have been increased, and most liquidations are priced at $75,200.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN: OR NOT?
We expect a rebound from the current buyer's zone. The reversal formation hasn’t been formed yet, so long positions are only possible on the spot asset. For margin trading, it’s necessary to wait for additional confirmation.
A more negative scenario is a decrease to the next zone of accumulated volumes of $69,000-$60,600. The probability of such a decline without a proper rebound is very low.
Sell Zones:
$82,000–$83,900 (high-volume zone)
$85,600–$88,000 (absorption of buyer's market aggression)
$95,000–$96,700 (accumulated volumes)
$97,500–$98,400 (pushing volumes)
$107,000–$109,000 (volume anomalies)
Buy Zones:
$77,000–$73,000 (volume anomalies, pushing volumes)
$69,000–$60,600 (accumulated volumes)
IMPORTANT DATES
We’re following these macroeconomic developments:
• Wednesday, April 9, 2:00 (UTC) — announcement of the New Zealand interest rate decision;
Wednesday, April 9, 18:00 (UTC) — publication of FOMC minutes;
• Thursday, April 10, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of the basic US consumer price index for March, as well as in comparison with March 2024, and the number of initial applications for US unemployment benefits;
• Friday, April 11, 06:00 (UTC) — publication of UK GDP for February and German consumer price index for March;
• Friday, April 11, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of the US producer price index for March.
*This post is not a financial recommendation. Make decisions based on your own experience.
#analytics
BTCUSDT: Bounce Incoming?BTCUSDT Technical analysis update
-March 2024 resistance is now expected to act as a strong support level.
-The price has touched the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a potential reversal from this zone.
-The 200 EMA on the 2-day chart is positioned as a strong dynamic support, reinforcing the bullish case.
We can expect a bounce from the $72-75k level.