Bitcoin Is Under Bearish PressureHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring BTCUSDT for a selling opportunity around 86k zone, Bitcoin is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 86k support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
BTCUSDT
BTC Bitcoin Technical Rebound Despite Whale Short Position !If you haven`t sold this recent top on BTC:
Now Bitcoin (BTC) has recently pulled back, but signs are emerging that a technical rebound could be imminent.
A large crypto investor, or whale, has reportedly opened a 40x leveraged short position for over 4,442 BTC (valued at over $368 million), effectively betting on a near-term price drop. However, this appears to be more of a short-term, low-volume trade rather than a sustained bearish position.
Given the high leverage involved, the whale will likely seek to close the position soon with a modest profit rather than holding it as a long-term directional bet. Weekend trading volumes tend to be lower, which could contribute to short-term price weakness — but once the position is closed, buying pressure could return, fueling a recovery.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently near key support levels, with momentum indicators like the RSI signaling oversold conditions. Historically, similar setups have led to sharp rebounds as short covering and renewed bullish sentiment drive prices higher.
My price target for Bitcoin is $97,500 by the end of the year, which would represent a recovery of approximately 15-20% from current levels. If the whale closes the short position and broader market sentiment stabilizes, Bitcoin could quickly regain upward momentum toward this target.
BTC/USDT weekly chart shows a classic technical analysis patternThe BTC/USDT weekly chart shows a classic technical analysis pattern
Support and resistance levels:
There is clear horizontal resistance around $83,000, represented by the green line.
The potential support level is marked around $78,000.
The chart shows a “cup and handle” structure, which could indicate bullish potential if the price breaks above the resistance.
An upward trend line is also present, reinforcing bullish sentiment as long as the price remains above it.
Currently trading around $83,436, noticeable price action reflects market sentiment towards potential future highs.
Keep an eye on breakouts above resistance for bullish signals or declines below support levels for potential bearish sentiment.
Always consider market volatility and use risk management strategies when trading.
If you found this analysis helpful, hit the Like button and share your thoughts or questions in the comments below. Your feedback matters!
Thanks for your support!
DYOR. NFA
Bitcoin Deviation From Long Term TrendBitcoin weekly close divided by the 400 week SMA (close).
Incredibly precise linearity with the last two market cycle tops.
Of note is this metric's capture of a single maxima last cycle and a similar peak happening currently.
This might not be a market cycle top, but caution is called for here.
BTC Today's strategyThe support level for Bitcoin has started to move upwards. Currently, the market is still trading in the range of 80K to 85K. The consecutive short bets I have offered have also been profitable many times
If you are currently unsatisfied with the bitcoin trading results and are looking for daily accurate trading signals, you can follow my analysis for potential assistance.
Today's BTC trading strategy:
btcusdt sell@85K-87K
tp:83K-81K
$BTC 4h Timeframe OutlookCRYPTOCAP:BTC | 4h
The main hurdle is still the monthlyOpen, as the price is rejecting here. However, we are still trading and holding the weeklyPoC
Keep an eye on the monthlyOpen. If we get rejected again, expect we rollover to 80k, or possibly down to 78k
If we flip the monthlyOpen and break the unresolved bearish imbalance at 86k, expect a move back up, retesting 90k–92k, or if we can tap the quarterlyOpen at 93k
Dead Cat Bounce BTCUSDT🚨 High-Risk Analysis 🚨
This setup isn’t for the faint-hearted. It’s like trying to catch falling knives while blindfolded. But for those who thrive on risk—here’s the analysis.
📉 We've reached the second bottom.
(No one truly knows how deep the rabbit hole can go…)
Despite the uncertainty, we take control of our trade, set a strict stop-loss, and see if our cat still has one more jump left.
🔥 Factors in Favor of a Bounce:
✅ Deviation from the sloping trendline
✅ Formation of a second bottom
✅ Reversion to the mean price
✅ Approach to a major level, allowing for a tight stop-loss and an optimal risk-reward setup
✅ Candle wicks signaling potential price movement
⚠️ Bearish Risks:
Strong trend pressure could push lower
Lack of volume may fail to drive momentum
Final Thoughts:
This remains a high-risk trade, but with a strong profit potential, as long as stop-loss discipline is maintained.
🎯 Good luck to those taking the risk. Victory will be ours! 🚀🔥
Bitcoin's left translated cycle - new lowsLet’s analyze both Cycle Market theories separately:
60-Day Cycle Status
Bitcoin printed a new cycle low on February 28. While many expected a rebound, it carved another low a week later, leading into a left-translated cycle (price trends downward for over half the cycle). We’re now on day 16, hovering just above the $78,000 low. Further downside is likely in coming weeks.
Multi-Timeframe Cycle Breakdown
2-Week Cycle: Will dip below 20 by Monday’s close, marking the start of accumulation (long-term oversold conditions).
1-Week Cycle: Broken below 20 and stuck there for two months – a reversal is imminent, signaling mid-term upside.
3-Day Cycle: Also below 20, confirming short-term bullish momentum.
1-Day Cycle: Topping above 80, hinting at a brief pullback soon.
Consensus : Both theories suggest a rally toward the 60-Day Cycle high (days 20-30), aligning with the 3-Day Cycle peak. However, we may see one final dip when the 3-Day Cycle resets to 20 before the bull run resumes.
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) – Potential Bullish BreakoutCurrent Market Overview:
Price: $83,295
24h Change: -1.24% (-$1,043.43)
Exchange: Binance (2-Day Timeframe)
Technical Breakdown:
Support Levels:
38.2% Fibonacci Retracement: ~$77,262 – This level has acted as a significant support area.
Trendline Support: Bitcoin is currently bouncing off a key ascending trendline that has been respected since mid-2023.
Major Fibonacci Support: Lower retracement levels at $67,346 (50%), $57,430 (61.8%), and $50,539 (70%) indicate potential deeper corrections if the trendline breaks.
Resistance Levels:
Key Resistance at $106,183 - $109,588: A breakout above this zone could trigger a rally toward new all-time highs.
Psychological Level at $100,000: A critical milestone for BTC that could act as temporary resistance.
Bullish Scenario:
If Bitcoin maintains support above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and trendline, a potential breakout above $109,588 could push prices toward $130,000.
The upward projection aligns with historical price action and Fibonacci extensions.
Bearish Scenario:
A break below $77,262 could lead to further downside, with possible retracements to $67,346 (50%) or lower levels like $50,539 (70%).
The long-term trendline breakdown would be a major bearish signal.
Conclusion & Strategy:
Short-Term: Look for confirmation of support at $77,262 before entering long positions.
Mid-Term: If BTC breaks $109,588 with volume confirmation, a bullish rally toward $130,000 is likely.
Risk Management: A drop below $77,000 could invalidate the bullish setup, prompting caution.
🚀 Bullish Outlook Above $109,588 | ⚠️ Caution Below $77,000
BTCUSDT TRADING POINT UPDATE >READ THE CHPTAIANBuddy'S dear friend
SMC Trading Signals Update 🗾🗺️ crypto Traders SMC-Trading Point update you on New technical analysis setup for crypto BTC USDT. ) list time post signals 💯 reached target point ) 👉 New technical analysis setup BTC USDT looking for bullish trend 📈 FVG level support level. 83k 82k support level 87k 88k resistance level ). Guys 🤝 good luck 💯💯
Key Resistance level 87k + 88k
Key Support level 83k - 82kà
Mr SMC Trading point
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
BTC:Successfully predicted the rebound of BTCSuccessfully predicted the rebound of BTC, and the trading strategy has made a profit again.
I always firmly believe that profit is the sole criterion for measuring strength. I will share accurate trading signals every day. Follow my lead and wealth will surely come rolling in. Click on my profile for your guide
BITCOIN TRENDS with Heiken Ashi candles & Trend indicator ADX Why HEIKEN ASHI Candles ?
Heikin Ashi is a charting technique that can be used to predict future price movements. It is similar to traditional candlestick charts. However, unlike a regular candlestick chart, the Heikin Ashi chart tries to filter out some of the market noise by smoothing out strong price swings to better identify trend movements in the market. ( Source TradingView )
What is ADX ?
The ADX indicator measures trend strength without indicating direction. It is derived from the Positive Directional Movement (+DI) and Negative Directional Movement (-DI):
+DI (Positive Directional Index): Measures upward price movement.
-DI (Negative Directional Index): Measures downward price movement.
ADX Value: Higher values indicate stronger trends, regardless of direction.
( Source TradingView)
To summarise, Heiken Ashi candles filter out Noise and help identify Trend Direction
ADX shows you Trend Strength - NEVER the direction of Trend, using prince index.
OK, so now we ready. The main chart has 2 Vertical Bold lines that will be explained in a Bit but Note where they are on the Chart
The one on the left is near where the Rise in PA turns and becomes a Ranging PA- PA slowed right on that line.
The 2nd line is near the TOP and before the point where PA entered a descending channel that leads us to where we are currently
Note on the chart, the Orange dotted line. This is the BASIS line of the Bollinger bands. This is The Basis line and shows us the Average of PA and, as you can see, we are currently below Average. This shows a Negative Trend.
See how PA is above the basis line in a Positive Trend
Also note in the chart how the lines of candles are Smoother. Each New candle begins on the centre line of the previous and so it becomes a Lot easier to see if PA rises or drops from previous with out the Jagged Noise of traditional candles. - Taller candles show more Strength than previous;
So now to the ADX Chart
See those 2 Dashed Vertical lines and note how the ADX ( YELLOW ) changes direction at those points.
To remind you, the Left one was where BTC PA Slowed down from a Steep Rise, A BULLISH TREND, and turned to Ranging.
The Drop in the ADX at this point showed us that the previous trend was weakening. I remind you, it DOES NOT SHOW TREND DIRECTION even though, in this case, they follow each other.
PA Ranged horizontal on average till we met the Next line, where the previous Trend Strength had reached Neutral ( Note, this is around 20 on the ADX scale )
At the next dashed lime. ADX began rising. Trend strength was increasing.
Initially, we saw BTC PA rising to a New ATH and so, it was easy to assume that the Trend Was Bullish again. However, as we see now, it turns out it was a BEARISH trend.
So how do we know when this is going to end ?
The ORANGE line DI+ ( positive price action ) and the RED DI - ( Negative price action ) can help
These are Price Direction index. When DI + rises, this indicates a positive price action and Visa Versa for DI -
On its own, this is not easy But, for instance, notice how while we been in the descending channel, the DI+ dropped while the DI- has ranged along the 20 line on average.
This indicates a controlled Drop in PA and NOT a Full on Bearish capitulation. There is strength there in PA and this can be seen by the Slow rise of the ADX
On a shorter time scales, over the last 5 days we have seen PA rise in price.
this is reflected more in the DI- dropping ( Negative price action loosing strength ) more than in the DI + remainf horizontal.( NOT gaining Strength )
This could indicate that we are not finished Dropping yet - and yet, at the same time, we see the ADX weakening.
The Bears maybe getting Tired.
If we now return to the Chart
This fatigue we maybe seeing in the Bears could be reflected in the simple fact that we are now Near a long term Rising line of Support ( bold line) and that we are nearer the lower line of the descending channel ( also support) - We are also very near the 2.272 fib extension that has proved to be support previously.
The upper bollinger band is around 90K, which happens to be near Top of current range.
So, we may see a push higher soon but we need to understand that the Longer term still Looks like we will continue in the Range Bound for a Few more weeks.
I hope this helps but be prepared for anything
$BTC to the moonWhen analyzing BTCUSD, I believe it has found its bottom. We have several confluences indicating a potential bullish move, including the mitigation of a monthly key level in a discounted region, an SMT swing low with ETH, and liquidity strategically positioned to act as fuel. Given this, I genuinely think the next stop is the moon. Let's go, BTC! 🚀
BTC:The latest trading strategyPreviously, BTC continued to decline after approaching the resistance level.
However, it has now started to recover, and a small upward rally is expected in the short term. We can seize this opportunity and go long.
The latest trading strategy for BTC:
buy@82600
TP1:83600
GMXUSDT UPDATEGMXUSDT is a cryptocurrency trading at $15.52. Its target price is $30.00, indicating a potential 90%+ gain. The pattern is a Bullish Falling Wedge, a reversal pattern signaling a trend change. This pattern suggests the downward trend may be ending. A breakout from the wedge could lead to a strong upward move. The Bullish Falling Wedge is a positive signal, indicating a potential price surge. Investors are optimistic about GMXUSDT's future performance. The current price may be a buying opportunity. Reaching the target price would result in significant returns. GMXUSDT is poised for a potential breakout and substantial gains.
Bitcoin’s Monthly RSI Nearing Danger Zone – Time to Sell?The chart above illustrates Bitcoin’s price action alongside the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on a monthly timeframe, which helps identify overbought and oversold conditions. Historically, Bitcoin’s major bull cycle peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 coincided with the monthly RSI reaching between 85-95, as highlighted by the blue circles. A downward trendline connects these peaks, suggesting that each cycle has seen slightly lower RSI highs, indicating a potential long-term momentum decline.
Currently, the RSI is approaching this historical resistance zone, signaling that Bitcoin may be nearing its market peak. If this trend continues, it could mark the final phase of the bull run, making it a strategic period for profit-taking. Traders should closely monitor RSI behavior, as a rejection from this level could indicate the start of a correction.
Historically, a monthly RSI of 85-95 has been a strong sell signal, marking the end of Bitcoin’s bull markets. If Bitcoin follows this pattern again, a distribution phase followed by a downturn could be expected.
Bitcoin's 1065-Day Bull Run Nearing Its End – A Cycle ComparisonThis chart illustrates Bitcoin’s historical price action over three major market cycles, each lasting approximately 1065 days (35 months). The pattern suggests that Bitcoin follows a well-defined four-year cycle, influenced by its halving events. Each cycle begins with a bearish phase (marked in red), followed by a strong uptrend (green), leading to a peak before another correction phase starts.
A key observation is that the duration of each bull run remains consistent, lasting around 35 months (~1065 days) before reaching its peak. Historically, Bitcoin has followed a similar trajectory, with price action mirroring previous cycles. If this pattern holds, the current bull run may reach its peak within the next 6-8 months, placing the market top around late 2025.
Additionally, past cycles show that altcoins tend to experience their strongest moves after Bitcoin peaks, meaning an altseason could emerge by Q3–Q4 2025.
BTC Today's strategyAt present, BTC is still fluctuating in the range of 80K-85K. This week, after reaching around 85K many times, it started to fall, and the consecutive short bets I provided also made profits many times.
If you are currently unsatisfied with the bitcoin trading results and are looking for daily accurate trading signals, you can follow my analysis for potential assistance.
Today's BTC trading strategy:
btcusdt sell@85K-87K
tp:83K-81K
BTCUSD SELL PATARAN Resistance Zone (Red Box at ~$85,000)
The price has reached a strong resistance level.
A double-top pattern is forming, suggesting a potential reversal.
There is a rejection from the resistance zone, indicating selling pressure.
Support Levels (Blue Boxes at ~$83,000 & ~$81,500)
If the price breaks below the minor consolidation, it may test the first support level (~$83,000).
A further breakdown could push BTC towards the second support (~$81,500).
Trendline Support (~$79,000 - $80,000)
The red trendline suggests BTC may find stronger support around $79,000, aligning with a potential descending move.
Bearish Scenario (If resistance holds)
BTC fails to break above $85,000.
A reversal pattern (double top) leads to a breakdown to support levels.
A possible downward trend towards trendline support at ~$79,000.
Bullish Scenario (If resistance breaks)
If BTC breaks and holds above $85,000, we may see continuation towards $87,000 - $89,000.
Confirmation would require strong volume and a retest of resistance turning into support.
Conclusion:
Currently, the chart leans bearish unless BTC breaks above $85,000 convincingly.
Watch for support reactions and confirmation of a breakdown before shorting.
If BTC holds above $85,000, a bullish continuation is possibl
$BTC MACD on weekly show a bearish trend. Read.You can see on the chart that in May 2024 I issued a warning, and look at what happened over the next five months.
The same pattern is repeating now, and there’s a high probability we’ll see a similar result.
Back in May 2024, the usual crowd—MMCrypto, That Martini Guy, Ash, Crypto Rover, etc.—were all saying things like, “We’re going to 110k,” “To the moon,” or “A huge bullish breakout is coming.”
What did we actually get? Five months of consolidation and an -80% drop for most altcoins.
So consider this a warning. The MACD on the weekly chart is a reliable indicator of the trend. Exchanges aren’t going to go against the trend. Even if there’s a ton of liquidity at 107k, they won’t risk buying billions worth of Bitcoin just to get wrecked by the prevailing trend and be forced to sell at a lower price than they purchased.
Those pointing to the liquidity map at 107k are missing the point. Exchanges take the easier path. Going from 97k to 107k is plausible in an uptrend, but in a downtrend? No chance.
What to Expect Now?
Since this chart is on the weekly timeframe, there will be daily bounces. Some altcoins may see 10-20% gains if you time the bottom and top correctly.
However, for holders, this is not a good time to hold.
Is Invalidation Possible?
Yes, but consider this: they’ve tried to break the trend five times and failed. The chance of a reversal now is about 1 in 9. It’s possible, but unlikely.
Key Support Levels
Support levels to watch are 95k, 91k, 85k, and 70k. While we might not drop as low as 70k, it’s better to be prepared.
What’s Next?
By May 2025, we’ll likely reach the end of this bearish trend, followed by a one-month altseason and a big BTC pump. However, starting in July 2025, we’re likely to face another five months of bearish consolidation.
The introduction of ETFs has shifted the crypto cycle into a new paradigm of five months of consolidation followed by one month of pumping.
As always, DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
BTC & GOLD (XAU) CorrelationWith this idea I am not trying to prove anything.
Recently I bumped into the idea about Bitcoin and Precious metals correlation and BTC/GOLD looks interesting.
Topic is open for discussions, what you think ? Do we still have a room for further price surge in terms of Bitcoin ?
Please share your ideas in comments.
Good Luck everyone on this choppy market.