Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Analysis – Divergence and Bearish Setuphello guys!
Divergence Between Price and RSI:
The chart shows a clear bearish divergence between price action and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Price made higher highs, while the RSI formed lower highs, signaling weakening bullish momentum and the potential for a reversal.
Price Action Analysis:
The price reached the QML2 zone (~$103,000), and there is a clear rejection, suggesting selling pressure.
The price is now heading toward QML1, located at around $95,600.
If the price breaks QML1 and holds below, the next support target is around $93,455, where further downside could be expected.
Support and Target Zones:
Support Area 1: QML1 (~$95,600) – key level to monitor for possible breakdown.
Support Area 2: QML2 (~$93,455) – potential next stop if QML1 breaks.
Resistance Zone: Around $103,000 – the price has been rejected from here, acting as a strong resistance level.
RSI Analysis:
The RSI is showing signs of bearish divergence, which often precedes a price correction or reversal.
RSI Below 50: If the RSI drops below the 50 mark, it could indicate increasing bearish momentum.
Trade Setup:
Bearish Setup:
Entry: Short position below $95,600 (if price breaks QML1 and retests it as resistance).
Take Profit: First target at $93,455, then possibly lower towards $91,000.
Conclusion:
Bearish Bias: The combination of price rejection at the upper resistance level and RSI divergence points to a potential price decline.
Key Levels to Watch: The immediate breakdown below $95,600 and subsequent test of $93,455 will be critical for further downside.
BTCUSDT
BTC.D Update = What happened to the ALT SEASON?I had this possibility on the back of my mind but didn't think it'd play out since things are much different this time
I obviously missed the last downward movement (even though I had it marked on USDT.D + some alts)
PS. Trust me, BS news you see is just an excuse. It's almost always in the chart (in this case, tariffs) = This is how I was able to predict 5th August bottom (in that case, it was the Japanese Yen news but in reality, it's all in the chart but I missed it this time and I'll accept it, I was too busy so never looked at it.. the reason I stopped posting after November)
It would be wonderful if you guys interact and keep things on your panel too!
USDT.D (how to find local reversals? no alt season this cycle?) sorry I forgot to post it here a week ago after the crash
I had that shit marked (small green box for a powerful reversal), which hit in the first week of December, but I forgot to check it out—lol, was too busy with other things = can anyone at least remind me or everyone's a lazy ass like me, these days?
Anyway, it was a perfect local top indication (USDT.D along with other macro charts are the best possible indicators for local top/bottom. One must capture these beautiful reversals where you have at least 80% of confidence, to accumulate more and more of your favorite tokens)
Trust me, BS news you see is just an excuse. It's almost always in the chart (in this case, tariffs) = This is how I was able to predict 5th August bottom (in that case, it was the Japanese Yen news but in reality, it's all in the chart but I missed it this time and I'll accept it, I was to busy so never looked at it.. the reason I stopped posting after November)
Good thing we still haven't reclaimed the macro trendline.
and look what happens after such long wicks into resistances ... (5th August one, 22nd Jan, and last year's)
and CT getting bearish? I get it that normie retails are fearful but good big CTs ???
This cycle really is different...
LOWER it now !!! (obviously there are many other confluences I've found but I'm too lazy to mention all that here)
PS. Yes, there will be an alt season and it will catch many off guard since most have lost hope and capitulated already.
It would be wonderful if you guys interact and keep things on your panel too, so we don't miss any market movements!!! I don't Trade full time, it's just 1/4 of my gigs
BTC/USDT Chart Analysis.
Bitcoin recently tested the previous trendline resistance (now acting as support) and bounced back.
The price briefly dropped into the green demand zone (support zone around $92,000-$95,000) but quickly recovered.
100-day MA (purple line): Provided strong support.
Holding this level is a bullish signal indicating buyers are coming forward.
BTC is now trading slightly above $97,000 and must stay above the trendline for a confirmed bullish reversal.
A close above $100,000 would strengthen the case for upward continuation.
Support: $92,000 – $95,000 (green zone).
Resistance: $100,000 then $104,000 – $108,000 range.
If you found this analysis helpful, hit the Like button and share your thoughts or questions in the comments below. Your feedback matters!
Thanks for your support!
DYOR. NFA
Bitcoin Weekly & Daily 50 & 100 SMA shows HUGE Support
The chart above has the 50 SMA ( RED ) and the 100 SMA ( BLUE )
Note how the 50 has acted as support on a Weekly chart
More than anything, Note how it was used at the end of the 2 previous ranges of BTC this cycle.
Projected 50 SMA points towards Contact with Pa in June, providing PA ranges as is now.
The Daily chart is a little different.
On this chart, see how it is the Blue 100SMa that provides support and it maybe worth noting what happened as the 50 crossed Under the 100 previously.
The Crossover that is likely to happen later this wek is about the same time After Range start as previously.
what does htis mean ?
In mu opinion, it is highly likely we will follow previous and return to the 91K area
It is there we need to remain and not drop lower, for to long.
Time Will tell us but we need a plan for ALL situations.
Trade safely and be safe yourself
Bitcoin is mimicking gold: Fractals are bullish!Bitcoin is following gold in its pattern formation. Fractal analysis of gold and Bitcoin reveals similarities in both charts. While gold is slightly ahead of Bitcoin, the same pattern is emerging on Bitcoin’s chart. If Bitcoin follows gold’s performance, it is likely to break out of this widening wedge pattern and reach new all-time highs, aligning with my previous analysis.
USDT Dominance Chart AnalysisUSDT dominance broke out of a long-term descending channel.
However, it is showing signs of rejection at nearly 4.60% and could head back towards support.
21-day MA (black line): Previously acted as resistance, but now provides some support.
100-day MA (purple line): Was breached, but is now being retested as support.
A red candle after the recent breakout suggests a possible failed breakout scenario.
The green arrow indicates a potential decline towards 4.20% or even lower.
Support: 4.20% (previous resistance, now potential support).
Low Support: 4.00%
Resistance: 4.60%
If you found this analysis helpful, hit the Like button and share your thoughts or questions in the comments below. Your feedback matters!
Thanks for your support!
DYOR. NFA
XNO/USDT Breaks Out from Falling Wedge Anticipating 100%+ GainsXNO/USDT has recently exhibited a significant technical development, breaking out from a falling wedge pattern—a formation often indicative of a potential bullish reversal. This breakout, accompanied by substantial trading volume, suggests a shift in market sentiment towards optimism. Investors are now eyeing potential gains in the range of 100% to 120% or more, reflecting heightened interest in this project.
As of February 10, 2025, Nano (XNO) is trading at approximately $1.34, with an intraday high of $1.58 and a low of $1.098. This price movement underscores the volatility and the emerging bullish momentum in the market. The recent surge in trading volume further reinforces the positive outlook, as increased activity often correlates with growing investor confidence.
The successful breakout from the falling wedge pattern is a pivotal moment for XNO/USDT. Historically, such breakouts are followed by substantial upward price movements, especially when supported by strong volume. The current technical indicators align with this narrative, suggesting that XNO may be poised for significant appreciation in value.
In conclusion, the combination of the falling wedge breakout, robust trading volume, and renewed investor interest positions XNO/USDT as a compelling opportunity in the cryptocurrency market. Traders and investors should monitor this pair closely, as it exhibits the potential for notable gains in the near future.
Bitcoin Range complete opposite of previous - Bullish Caution
Since January 2023, Bitcoin has risen to its current Value in 2 steps distinct and we sit on the 3rd step now.
But this Step is so VERY different and the potential Fragility exists
The chart explains this clearly.
The First step was in April 2023 and saw PA descend till June and remain in range till around October that year and saw a total retrace of around -20%. Lower Range Support was Horizontal and we were just above the 0.618 Fib extension
The 2nd began in March 2024, PA initially descended till May and then bounced back, remaining in range till October and saw a total retrace of around -25.6%. Lower Range Support was descending and the 1.618 Fib Extension was just below and was tested directly in the week of 5th August
Both began in Q2 ( approx) and ended in Q4 and both had an approx retrace of around -23%
Both were Very similar in date range, start and end. And Both were above the 618 Fib extension.
This time we have entered the "Step" in December ( Q4 ) and the under laying Support is Ascending. More than that, the line of resistance is the 2.618 Fib extension.
And this has led to a tricky situation really.
For a Start, we are in a tight pennant. The line of Resistance above is close
We do not have the time to Range and that pennant Apex is in late April. PA tends to react BEFORE we hit the APEX of triangles
The Ascending support has origins in 2017 and is the same line that PA used to Bounce higher in 2021 to reach the ATH in Nov. It is strong and we do not want to loose this.
But PA is Very OverBought and needs to cool off. When PA bounced of this line of Support in 2021, MACD was back down to Neutral. We are currently up high.
We need to repeat what we saw in previous "Steps" and let MACD cool off. It has begun on the weekly, but only Just turned Bearish
So what can we do ?
What seems to be happening is that PA is managing to remain in this triangle with an ascending support and a Very tight price range. We just saw this morning that PA has once again managed to bounce off this line after a sudden drop last night. Bulls Caught it on the line and we rise again
But what I have noticed is also how the Bitcoin Transaction count has lowered in the same period and maybe This is how we are managing to remain in this pattern ?
Less Transactions leads to less Volatility and so we keep a more stable Price range ?
Data from CRYPTOQUANT as TV does not do this metric ( wish they would )
Step 1
30 April 2023 ( Step 1 ) Transaction count was around 569K at start of that step to a Low of 445K on June 30 in Mid range
Step 2
From Feb Q1 2024, ( just beofre Step 2) we saw a continually rising transaction count that led to a peak of 671K on 22nd April. The Range has already begun by this point. 541K was the range low in August
Step 3, Current situation
As BTC PA rose Higher, we had transaction at nearly 850K but as we approached the range high we are currently in, Transaction count dropped dramatically, to 412K on Dec 16. to a Low around 398K in Mid December.
On Feb 9th ( yesterday ), we are back down to 385K
Is it this Low and currently descending Transaction count that is helping to keep PA in the Tight Range ?
Low Traffic will lead to less volatility but it maybe a fine line before Price Drops due to seemingly Lack on interest in the asset ?
Either way, We are in a Tight Triangle, currently with a Range height of around 10K
This is like a Balloon Full of Air, Getting SQUEEZED
Something has to go Pop at some point.
Technically, this has to be Lower and this could be pointing towards a TOP for now.
Maybe we are about to repeat the 2021 pattern of ATH early in the year, retrace and go for a New ATH in Q4
For me, this seems very possible - Unless PA breaks over that 2.618 Fib line.
We are under considerable and mounting pressure from the ascending Line of support
Maybe that line of support is strong enough to push us through ?
But be under NO illusion. Bitcoin Pa is under Huge strain right now but with strong corporate hands holding it steady, maybe......
Stay Tuned for The continuing Story of BITCOIN rise to greatness
10/02/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $102,496.97
Last weeks low: $91,204.00
Midpoint: $96,850.48
Another week of Bitcoin within the range and another one begins. With a very familiar low of ~$91K holding for the 10th week running (since the end of NOV '24), with a weekly high of $102,500 (last weekly outlooks midpoint) capping off the highs, will this weeks midpoint also act as the pivatol level? So far the midpoint has been reclaimed, a retest should add confluence to this.
We have a midweek CPI data release with a forecast 0.0% change remaining at 2.9%. These data events often cause LTF volatility and so that should be taken into account, the same is true for PPI on Friday.
Currently the market sentiment is pretty dire, the fear & greed index is at 43, the lowest since before the US Presidential Election.
Altcoins are struggling across the board, with the exception of some CEX coins all large-midcaps are below the 4H 200 EMA. I think that will change if BTC has a strong rally back above the weekly high and reclaims it, that will give the bulls the chance to finally break the $106K brick wall and flip from a rangebound environment into a trending environment again, altcoins would rally very well if this were to happen.
On the other hand is the midpoint is lost then the weekly low will need to hold for the 11th week running.
Good luck traders!
Bitcoin Intraday Thesis – February 10, 2025Market Context & Decision
Current BTC price: $97,336
Position: HOLD BUY (Entry: $95,414)
Target: $98,500 📈 | Stop-loss: $94,800
Key Insights
🔹 Bullish Sentiment – Financial data and historical trends suggest strong upward momentum.
🔹 Technical Indicators – Mixed signals, with BTC showing short-term overbought conditions, requiring caution.
🔹 Derivatives Data –
Funding Rate: -0.02% (Slight negative bias, but not strongly bearish).
Open Interest: 75,758 BTC (Healthy market activity).
Price Expectations & Strategy
📊 Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout (80% Confidence)
BTC pushes towards $98,500 if bullish sentiment continues.
Strong historical & financial backing supports the upward move.
📊 Scenario 2: Short-Term Correction
If BTC fails to break GETTEX:98K , overbought conditions may trigger a pullback.
Support at $96K-$95K remains key for continued bullish structure.
Conclusion
HOLD BUY remains the optimal strategy.
BTC likely to test $98,500, but traders should monitor support levels in case of volatility.
Keep an eye on funding rates & open interest for further confirmation.
🚀 Will Bitcoin reach $98,500 or face a pullback? Let’s discuss! 👇
Bitcoin (BTC) – Current Market OverviewConsolidation Range:
Bitcoin is currently consolidating within a well-defined range between $92,000 and $108,000, with significant support holding above the $90,000 mark. This range presents trading opportunities for both buyers and sellers depending on market conditions.
The $92,000 support level is particularly important, as it provides a base for the price to hold above and indicates strong demand. As long as BTC remains above this level, the bullish outlook stays intact.
Market Dynamics & Volatility:
Recent selling pressure has caused some downward movement, but the price staying above $90,000 suggests that buyers are still in control, which supports a bullish thesis.
The market’s decreasing volatility indicates that Bitcoin is likely building momentum for a major move, with the current phase acting as a consolidation or accumulation period. This narrowing range could lead to a significant breakout once the price shifts direction.
Key Levels:
Resistance: The $108,000 level is a crucial resistance point. A breakout above this level could send Bitcoin on a bullish rally toward $124,000, as the price would be clearing a key area of selling pressure.
Support: The $92,000 support remains vital. A sustained drop below this level would put significant pressure on the bullish case, and further downside could challenge the current market structure.
Outlook:
Bitcoin appears to be coiling for a major move, with the market likely preparing for a breakout in either direction. A break above $108,000 could lead to further upside toward $124,000, while a drop below $92,000 would raise concerns about potential bearish action.
Conclusion:
Consolidation around the $92,000 to $108,000 range is providing an opportunity for Bitcoin to build momentum, with buyers maintaining control for now. A breakout above $108,000 would potentially push Bitcoin towards $124,000, but careful monitoring of the $92,000 support is key for maintaining the bullish outlook.
Bitcoin Macro Update: Echoes of 2015-2017 | Gold, M2, and CPI
In this macro update, I dive into Bitcoin’s price action and how it mirrors the 2015-2017 cycle. We analyze key macroeconomic indicators, including Gold, Global M2 money supply, and FRED data, to understand Bitcoin’s positioning in the broader financial landscape. With inflationary pressures and CPI trends shaping liquidity flows, is Bitcoin primed for another parabolic run? lets let the market decide.
Weekend is coming - another liquidation coming? BTC strongly bounced Monday and formed a daily candle with a massive bottom wick. It is a bullish candle but that itself doesn't confirm the bull trend is going to start. It was definitely the buy the dip moment for spot buyers and hodlers.
However, if people are trading, the obvious stop of Stop/Loss is just below that wick on the Monday candle. Subsequent daily candles failed to close above 100K. All daily momentum indicators are entering the bear zone. Now the price is steadily moving down.
Weekend is coming. I can see another perfect setup for the long liquidation event. I hope I am wrong.
I think the next few weeks are critical for the BTC bull. Weekly MACD is touching but hasn't crossed yet, so I will continue to observe the price action.
If MACD lines clearly cross to the downside and stochastic has entered the bear zone. I would consider opening a short position. I will use a daily chart to identify an entry.
It has been a very challenging market.
Bitcoin’s Fake Breakouts—Bears Taking Control!?Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) failed to defeat Resistance zone($100,520-$97,200) , the 50_SMA(Daily) , and the Monthly Pivot Point for the umpteenth time and even created a Fake Break .
It also seems that Bitcoin has been unable to break the Resistance lines .
According to the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that Bitcoin has succeeded in completing the corrective wave so that the structure of the main wave C is the Expanding Ending Diagonal .
I expect Bitcoin to break the Support zone($96,520-$95,720) and touch $95,500 this time, I told you about the importance of this price in the previous post .
Note: If Bitcoin can break the Resistance zone($100,520-$97,200) , the 50_SMA(Daily) , and the Monthly Pivot Point , we should expect an increase to Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($103,210-$102,454) .
It doesn't seem reasonable for Bitcoin these days to provide a long-term or even mid-term analysis, and we need to stick to a series of resistance and support levels in order to determine the next targets. Do you agree with me?
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
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BTC SHORT TP:94,500 08-02-2025BTC is currently seeking a short position on a one-hour timeframe, with a take profit set in the range of 94,000 to 94,500. This expected movement should materialize within 8 to 16 hours; if it does not occur within this timeframe, the analysis will be deemed invalid. Please remain attentive for updates to monitor this position closely.