Bitcoin - Comprehensive AnalysisThis is a Bitcoin TA article. In it, I will review the bullish and bearish scenarios. I will also provide price and time cutoff points, which could help us find trade opportunities.
Short-Term Bias is Bullish:
Before reviewing potential scenarios, I want to clarify one point: regardless of whether Bitcoin is long-term bearish or bullish, I expect a short-term upside in the coming days and weeks. The only question is how high it will go and how long it will last. I am optimistic about the short-term because Bitcoin is in the initial stages of the 60-day cycle that began on March 14, and the broader 200-day cycle is also in its early phase. Thus, when both the short and medium-term cycles trend upwards, Bitcoin is bullish, at least for the short-term.
Figure 1: Bitcoin Cycles
The Bearish Scenario:
Let’s begin with the bearish scenario. In this case, Bitcoin has completed primary wave five, and the correction in primary wave A is currently in progress. Primary wave A consists of an ABC structure, with the A wave likely completed. Currently, it appears to be in the initial stages of wave B. If this assumption holds, the likely target for wave B is the 0.618 retracement of A, both in terms of price and time, which sets our price target at 97K and our time target for April 7th or later.
Figure 2: The Bearish Scenario
The Bullish Scenario:
The bullish scenario posits that within primary wave five, Bitcoin completed intermediate wave four on March 14, and that intermediate wave five is about to commence. In this case, the likely target for wave five lies between 111K and 117K, although it could extend even higher. The time ratio for the fifth wave is 0.618 of the duration of wave three, which brings us to April 21.
Figure 3: The Bullish Scenario
Short-Term Minimum Target:
Even if we assume Bitcoin is bearish and that we are about to enter a prolonged correction period, I still expect Bitcoin to retrace 50% of wave A, which also marks the intersection of the upward and downward sloping channels. This retest could occur as early as Monday, March 17th, the soonest decision point.
A cross above the 50% retracement and entry into the upward sloping channel will signal a bullish bias. A rejection from the 50% line and a continuation lower will strengthen the bearish bias.
Figure 4: Minimum Short – Term
Max Target:
The maximum target suggests an extended fifth wave, and in that scenario, Bitcoin could reach as high as $123K, representing the 1.272 extension as early as April 13th. These points of price and time intersect along the 45-degree angle that marked the top of primary waves one and three. Wave five can extend even more, but at this point it is hopeium.
Figure 5: Max Target
Additional Considerations:
Yearly Cycles. In the last four years, Bitcoin reached an intermediate top between mid-March and mid-April. However, on March 14, 2020, it indicated the bottom before a bull run. I am leaning toward the bear case because March 2020 was an exceptional year due to the COVID crisis.
Fed Pivot. The next FOMC meeting is on March 19th. According to CME’s Fed Watch tool, the Fed will unlikely pivot on March 19th. Whether it does or doesn’t pivot on March 19th, the latest inflation data increases the chances of a pivot soon, which could ignite the final fifth wave and the blow-off top.
Figure 6: Yearly Cycles
Bitcoin Dream:
This is a “feel good” scenario. If everything aligns, it could become a reality.
Figure 7: Bitcoin Dream
