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Strategy 2025. BTC Airless Scenario Below $100'000 Choking PointThe crypto market is flashing a worrying outlook for 2025, since a disappointing Santa Claus rally this year could deepen issues. This is especially important if BTC will not be able to finish the year 2024 firmly above $100'000 per coin. The financial market has had a tough week, but it might also be in store for a tough year in 2025. The market is on track for its worst weeks over years after the Federal Reserve gave a hawkish forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025. But looking at the market's internals, it's clear that damage had been inflicted well before the Fed's Wednesday meeting—and the signal is a historic indicator of tough times ahead. The number of stocks in Top Stock Club S&P 500 that are declining outpaced advancing stocks for 14 consecutive days on Thursday. The advancing/declining data helps measure underlying participation in market moves, and the recent weakness signals that even though the S&P 500 is only off 4% from its record high, there's damage under the hood of the benchmark index. This is evidenced by the equal-weighted S&P 500 index being off 7% from its record high. According to Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research, the 14-day losing streak for the S&P 500's advance-decline line is the worst since October 15, 1978. Clissold said 10-day losing streaks or more in advancing stocks relative to declining stocks can be a bad omen for future stock market returns. While this scenario has only been triggered six times since 1972, it shows lackluster forward returns for the S&P 500. The index has printed an average six-month forward return of 0.1% after these 10-day breadth losing streaks flashed, compared to the typical 4.5% average gain seen during all periods. "Studies with six cases hardly make for a strategy. But market tops have to start somewhere, and many begin with breadth divergences, or popular averages posting gains with few stocks participating," Clissold said. Perhaps more telling for the stock market is whether it can stage a recovery as it heads into one of the most bullish seasonal periods of the year: the Santa Claus trading window. If it can't, that would be telling, according to Clissold. "A lack of a Santa Claus Rally would be concerning not only from a seasonal perspective, but it would allow breadth divergences to deepen," the strategist said. Also concerning to Clissold is investor sentiment, which has flashed signs of extreme optimism since September. According to the research firm's internal crowd sentiment poll, it is in the seventh-longest stretch in the excessive optimism zone, based on data since 1995. "Several surveys have reached what could be unsustainable levels," Clissold said, warning that any reversal in sentiment could be a warning sign for future market returns. Ultimately, continued stock market weakness, especially in the internals, would suggest to Clissold that 2025 won't be as easy as 2024 for investors. "If the stock market cannot rectify recent breadth divergences in the next few weeks, it would suggest our concerns about a more difficult 2025 could come to fruition," the strategist said. Moreover, Dow Jones index has printed recently The Three Black Crows Bearish candlestick pattern, on weekly basis. This is especially important, since mentioned above pattern is massively unwinding from Dow's all the history highs. Previously this pattern has already appeared in TVC:DJI in November 2021 and lead to 20 percent decline in 2022 for Dow Jones Index and to more than 70 percent decline in BTC. The Three Black Crows Bearish candlestick pattern also has appeared in Dow Jones Index in September, 2018 (lead to 18% decline) and in July, 2007 (lead to more than 50% decline). The main technical graph represents a Choking Strategy for BTC in 2025, i.e. BTC airless scenario below $100'000 choking point. The epic 52-week SMA breakthrough in BTC will definitely accelerate a decline at all.
by Pandorra
2
Will Bitcoin Hold $91,600 Support or Drop to $86K?The BTC/USD 4-hour chart highlights a key support zone at $91,600–$92,200, acting as a strong barrier against further downside. The price is consolidating near this level, with a descending trendline adding bearish pressure. A bounce from this support could retest the trendline around $94,000–$95,000, while a break below $91,600 may trigger a decline toward $86,000 or lower. Traders should watch for confirmation of a bounce or breakdown.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by unichartz
Daily Analysis of Bitcoin – Issue 240The analyst believes that the price of { BTCUSD } will increase in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend. Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by MoonriseTA
Bitcoin can exit from pennant and then start to grow to 103KHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price started to trades inside the pennant, where it rebounded from the support line and rose almost to the support level, which coincided with the buyer zone. In the pennant pattern, BTC started to grow inside the upward channel, where it broke the 92600 level and then rose to the channel's resistance line, after which made a correction. Next, the price continued to grow and later rose to the resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone and then made a correction movement to the buyer zone. After this, the price continued to move up inside the channel, where it soon reached the 103000 resistance level and broke it. Next, BTC reached the channel's resistance line, which coincided with the resistance line of the pennant, and made a strong impulse down to the support line of the pennant, exiting from the channel and breaking the resistance level. After this movement, the price turned around and started to grow near the support line of the pennant and now I think that BTC can exit from the pennant and fall to the support level. Then it will turn around and start to grow to a 103000 resistance level, which is my TP. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Long
by LegionQ8
3
Altseason is coming!!!hello guys! let's compare these two dominance indexes to forecast the alt season! Left Chart: Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) Trend Overview: BTC dominance is currently at 57.79%. A downward arrow indicates a potential drop to the 52% range, aligning with past support levels. Interpretation: A decrease in BTC dominance suggests that capital might flow out of Bitcoin into other cryptocurrencies (altcoins), typically signaling the onset of an altseason. ____________________________________ Right Chart: Ethereum Dominance (ETH.D) Trend Overview: ETH dominance is 12.64%, showing a bottoming formation within a long-term support zone. An upward arrow predicts a bounce back to higher levels around 14%-15%. Interpretation: An increase in ETH dominance often precedes or accompanies an altseason since Ethereum typically leads the altcoin market during these phases. ____________________________________ Conclusion: Combined Analysis: The expected drop in BTC dominance paired with a recovery in ETH dominance points towards a likely redistribution of market capital into altcoins. Timing: Such dominance shifts generally unfold over weeks, making it plausible for an altseason to occur in the near future, likely within the first quarter of 2025.
CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D
by melikatrader94
1
BTC/USDT Chart Analysis BTC/USDT consolidates within a symmetrical triangle, indicating a potential breakout. This pattern often translates into a significant price movement, either upwards or downwards. As highlighted in the chart, if BTC breaks out to the upside, the price projection is approximately 15.77%. The measured move aligns with historical price action and the triangle's width. Support Level: Near $93,000 The breakout of the triangle will determine the next directional trend. Keep an eye on increased trading volume to confirm the validity of the breakout. If the breakout is bullish: The potential target is $108,000 Let me know if you’d like further assistance or adjustments! DYOR. NFA
Long
by CryptoSanders9563
Bitcoin Roadmap=>Short-term!!!As I expected, Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) once again attacked the 50_SMA(Daily) but failed to defeat it . Bitcoin is currently moving near Heavy Support zone($95,000-$90,870) , Support zone($96,620-$95,520) and Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . According to the theory of Elliott waves , Bitcoin seems to have succeeded in completing the main wave 4 . To confirm the end of the main wave 4 , we need to confirm the break of the 50_SMA(Daily) . It also seems that Bitcoin in microwaves should experience an upward movement in the coming hours. I expect Bitcoin to at least rise to the Targets I have specified in the chart. ⚠️Note: If Bitcoin goes below the 50_SMA(Daily), we can expect a break of the Heavy Support zone($95,000-$90,870).⚠️ ⚠️Note: In general, the analysis is short-term, and holding a long position for targets above the Resistance zone($100,000-$98,130) is a little risky.⚠️ 🙏Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.🙏 Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame⏰. 🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔 Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
23
BTC Weekly Signal: A Warning or Just Another Test?Analysis: Bitcoin's current price action presents a critical juncture, marked by the flashing of the PrimeMomentum LongTerm Signal BTC on the weekly chart. Historically, this signal has proven to be 100% accurate, correlating with significant corrections whenever it appears. If the signal persists until the weekly candle closes in 36 hours, we might see Bitcoin entering a deeper corrective phase. Key Observations: The Signal's History: As illustrated on the chart, each red diamond signal in the past has accurately predicted a correction. Corrections following the signal have ranged between 7% to 25%, with the most extreme being a 72% drop during the bear market. Potential Correction Zones: Two imbalance zones have been highlighted as potential targets: $85,000–$81,600: This aligns with the upper imbalance zone. $74,400–$70,600: A deeper support area, matching historical price reactions. These zones are consistent with prior correction depths and market behavior during similar signals. Market Cyclicity: Corrections often precede major market rallies. Historical data shows post-holiday rallies were initiated by small corrections, fitting the current scenario. This aligns with upcoming macro events, including the inauguration of significant political figures, which could fuel renewed bullish sentiment. What to Watch: Weekly Candle Closure: If the signal remains active upon close, the likelihood of a correction increases significantly. Reaction to Imbalance Zones: Monitor price action closely if Bitcoin approaches $92,000 or either imbalance zone. Macro and Whale Activity: Whales may capitalize on this correction to accumulate Bitcoin at lower levels before anticipated bullish catalysts in 2024. Final Thoughts: This setup reflects a dynamic yet critical stage for Bitcoin's market structure. While corrections can appear alarming, they are often healthy retracements that set the stage for stronger bullish moves. Keep an eye on the weekly close and remember that the PrimeMomentum LongTerm Signal BTC has yet to fail in its predictions. Will Bitcoin's trendline hold, or are we due for another major correction? Share your thoughts and let’s discuss! 🚀
Short
by SetKryptoBalans
Does Bitcoin History Repeat Itself? 🚀 Does Bitcoin History Repeat Itself? 🌕 Comparing the 2017, 2021, and 2025 bull runs reveals a fascinating similarity: 🔹 Each cycle experiences mid-run corrections ranging from -25% to -40%! 🔹These corrections fuel the next leg up to new all-time highs. 🔹2024-2025 is shaping up to follow this historical trend. Therefore, it will be expected if we see a drop of around 25% to 30%. Lessons: Corrections are part of growth. Stay focused on the bigger picture! #Bitcoin #Bullrun Share your thoughts below!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
13