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BTC/USD "Bitcoin vs US Dollar" Crypto Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the BTC/USD "Bitcoin vs US Dollar" Crypto market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long & Short entry. 👀 So Be wealthy and safe trade 💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : You can enter a Bull or Bear trade at any point after the breakout or reversal. Buy entry should break and retest the neutral level (102,000) Sell Entry Pullback at the neutral level (100,000) Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest Pullbacks. Goal 🎯: Bullish Robbers TP 11500 (or) Escape Before the Target Bearish Robbers TP 84500 (or) Escape Before the Target Warning⚠️ : Our heist strategy is incompatible with Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️. We'll wreck our plan by smashing the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Avoid entering the market right after the news release. Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️ The BTC/USD is expected to move in a bullish direction, with the price potentially resuming its uptrend after a period of turmoil in late December and early January. The strong bullish trend and slight short-term decrease suggest that traders may consider trading only long positions. To take a trade, consider the following: Analyze the market trend: Look at the overall trend of the BTC/USD pair and identify any potential support or resistance levels. Monitor market news and events: Keep an eye on any news or events that could impact the price of Bitcoin, such as changes in regulations or adoption rates. Use technical indicators: Utilize technical indicators like moving averages, RSI, and Bollinger Bands to help identify potential trading opportunities. Set a trading plan: Develop a clear trading plan, including entry and exit points, stop-loss levels, and position sizing. The fundamental analysis of Bitcoin is aimed at determining where the price of the asset is headed, with models like the stock-to-flow model predicting prices based on the rate of new bitcoins being added to the network relative to the existing supply. Additionally, macroeconomic events like increasing monetary bases of fiat currencies can lead to inflation, which may drive up the demand for Bitcoin as an inflationary hedge. Here's a fundamental analysis for BTC/USD, along with market sentiment percentages: Overall Trend: The BTC/USD pair is expected to move in a bullish direction Bullish Sentiment: 65% Bearish Sentiment: 30% Neutral Sentiment: 5% Market News and Events: The upcoming events, such as the Bitcoin halving and the increasing adoption of cryptocurrencies, are expected to drive the price of Bitcoin up. Bullish Sentiment: 70% Bearish Sentiment: 25% Neutral Sentiment: 5% Technical Indicators: The technical indicators, such as the moving averages and RSI, are indicating a bullish trend. Bullish Sentiment: 60% Bearish Sentiment: 35% Neutral Sentiment: 5% Fundamental Analysis: The fundamental analysis of Bitcoin, including the stock-to-flow model, is predicting a bullish trend. Bullish Sentiment: 75% Bearish Sentiment: 20% Neutral Sentiment: 5% Macro-economic Events: The increasing monetary bases of fiat currencies and the potential for inflation are expected to drive up the demand for Bitcoin as an inflationary hedge. Bullish Sentiment: 80% Bearish Sentiment: 15% Neutral Sentiment: 5% Overall, it's essential to stay informed about market trends, news, and events, and to use a combination of technical and fundamental analysis to make informed trading decisions Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and use trailing SL Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Thief_Trader
Bitcoin Advisory Report Date: January 26, 2025Bitcoin Advisory Report Date: January 26, 2025 Prepared for: Investors and Traders ________________________________________ Current Market Overview Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading within a tight consolidation range between $106,250 and $103,600, signalling an indecisive market phase. A breakout beyond this range will determine the next directional move. • Median Level Support: $100,000 continues to act as a minor support zone, absorbing selling pressure. • Major Support Level: $75,000 provides a strong foundational level for Bitcoin, expected to prevent deep sell-offs. • Major Resistance Level: $125,000 remains a significant barrier for bullish momentum. ________________________________________ Technical Analysis Key Observations: 1. Consolidation Channel: o Bitcoin is currently oscillating within a defined range of $106,250 (resistance) and $103,600 (support). o A breakout above $106,250 could lead to a bullish rally toward $108,000 in the short term. 2. Momentum Support Levels: o Protecting the $104,500 level is critical to maintain bullish momentum for an upward move. o Failure to hold $104,500 may result in a retest of $103,600 or lower levels. 3. EMA and VWAP: o The exponential moving averages (EMAs) suggest mixed momentum. The EMA 8 crossing VWAP indicates possible short-term buying pressure if sustained. 4. Volume Analysis: o The current trading volume is relatively low, which suggests that market participants are awaiting confirmation of a breakout. A rise in volume will be a key indicator of a decisive move. 5. Short-Term Target: o Based on momentum indicators, if Bitcoin holds $104,500, an upward rally toward $108,000 could be realized by Monday, January 27, 2025. ________________________________________ Fundamental Points 1. Market Sentiment: o Positive institutional adoption and Bitcoin ETFs have bolstered long-term investor confidence. o Macroeconomic factors, such as stable interest rates, are supporting risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. 2. Regulatory Climate: o Globally, regulatory acceptance for digital assets is increasing, especially with developments in Bitcoin's use in remittance systems. 3. Supply Dynamics: o Bitcoin's limited supply (halving effects) continues to serve as a bullish catalyst over the medium to long term. 4. Global Economic Factors: o Inflation concerns have driven investors toward Bitcoin as a hedge, reinforcing its status as digital gold. ________________________________________ Recommendation Buy Scenario: • Enter a buy position if Bitcoin decisively breaks $106,250, targeting $108,000 initially, with a stop-loss set at $104,500. • Consider scaling into positions if price momentum continues upward toward $110,000. Sell Scenario: • Consider a short position if Bitcoin breaks $103,600, targeting $101,000, with a stop-loss set at $104,500. • Prepare for further downside risk toward $100,000 (minor support) and possibly $75,000 (major support) if selling intensifies. ________________________________________ Conclusion Bitcoin is at a pivotal technical juncture, with the $106,250 to $103,600 range holding the key to short-term price direction. Protecting $104,500 is crucial for bullish momentum, with upside potential toward $108,000. Conversely, failure to maintain support at $103,600 could lead to a bearish retest of lower levels. Investors should watch for volume spikes and breakout confirmations to make informed decisions. ________________________________________
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by mmkhan2076
BITCOIN - Price can continue to move up inside wedge patternHi guys, this is my overview for BTCUSDT, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 A few moments ago, the price declined to support level, after which at once bounced up to resistance area. Then BTC started to decline inside pennant, where it quickly declined from resistance area to support area. After this, price bounced from the pennant's support line, broke the $94200 level, and exited from the pennant pattern. Next, price rose to $102700 points and made a correction move to $90800 points, after which started to grow in wedge. In wedge, BTC rose to $106500 level and even rose higher, reaching a new ATH and then fell back. Now I expect that Bitcoin can correct to support line of wedge and then rise to $112K, breaking resistance level. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Long
by WalterMoon
6
Trump's coin impact!The recent surge of Trump Coin highlights how sudden market movements can disrupt price patterns and influence trading behavior across the broader cryptocurrency market. The rapid rise of Trump Coin, which soared by over 600%, sparked a wave of euphoria and speculation, drawing attention away from other cryptocurrencies and creating a ripple effect that reshaped market dynamics. The Trump Coin Phenomenon Trump Coin's explosive price increase captivated both traders and investors, significantly shifting market focus. This wasn’t just a temporary spike, but an event with lasting consequences that drained liquidity and trading volume from other coins, concentrating interest on Trump Coin. Impact on Other Cryptocurrencies As Trump Coin gained traction, the wider market began to stagnate, with overall market indicators like TOTAL (representing total market capitalization) and TOTAL2 (excluding Bitcoin) showing little movement. This period of stagnation reflected a lack of fresh capital flowing into other cryptocurrencies, as most traders redirected their focus to the Trump Coin rally. The following consequences were observed: [/b ]Liquidity Drain: As attention turned to Trump Coin, many altcoins saw a significant drop in trading volume, resulting in price stagnation and periodic sell-offs. Market Dump: Investors exiting their positions in other cryptocurrencies to join the Trump Coin rally contributed to temporary market dumps, amplifying the broader consolidation phase. Psychological Shift: The excitement surrounding Trump Coin led to a more cautious "wait-and-see" mentality among traders, reducing overall market volatility as fewer positions were opened. Consolidation Phase In the wake of Trump Coin's rapid rise, other cryptocurrencies entered a consolidation phase, a common occurrence when the market experiences a lull or imbalance. This phase reflects a market seeking stability before the next significant movement, with many investors holding back as they await further developments.
by melikatrader94
12
Even if it falls, you should prepare for an uptrend Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- The High Boundary Zone has been changed to the 101947.24-103706.66 range. Therefore, anything above 103706.00 is considered a high range. However, the basic 106133.74 point is likely to act as resistance. - The StochRSI indicator is showing a decline to the 50 point range. Therefore, since volatility is likely to occur, a quick response is required when trading. Therefore, the point of observation is whether there is resistance near 106133.74. When a new candle is created, if the StochRSI indicator falls below the 50 point, the key point is whether there is support near 101947.24-103706.66. If there is support, I think there is a high possibility that the uptrend will continue. If the StochRSI indicator enters the oversold zone and falls below 101947.24 and shows resistance, you should check whether it touches the BW(0) indicator or the HA-Low indicator. The 93576.0-34742.35 zone is expected to be an important support and resistance zone. ------------------------------ It seems that a lot of funds have flowed into the coin market through USDC. Accordingly, the coin market is likely to show an upward trend soon. As I said before, for the altcoin bull market to start, BTC dominance must fall below 55.01 and remain there or show a downward trend. The maximum decline point of USDT dominance is expected to be around 2.84. After that, since USDT dominance is expected to show an upward trend, the coin market is expected to show a downward wave. If it goes up by 4.97 or more, I think you can definitely tell that a downtrend is in progress. - Based on the above coin market cap chart, this uptrend is expected to be the last uptrend. Therefore, even if the price falls, a trading strategy that prepares for an uptrend is needed. The point to watch is whether this uptrend can rise to the Fibonacci ratio point of 2.24 (116940.43). This volatility period is expected to continue until January 31. The next volatility period is expected to be around February 9-16. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Big picture I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC. (BTCUSD 12M chart) Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015. In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market. Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025. - (LOG chart) Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing. Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective. Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future. - The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015. That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend. The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019. Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026. - No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving. It is up to you how to view and respond to it. Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized. However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role. The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci. Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies. 1st: 44234.54 2nd: 61383.23 3rd: 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting) 4th: 134018.28 151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting) 5th: 178910.15 -----------------
by readCrypto
Bitcoin is gearing up for a rally. 120K target Bitcoin after the false breakout of resistance, which is associated with Trump's inauguration did not fall, but only consolidates near resistance. And this, I believe, is a very good sign that the price may continue its trend after exiting the triangle. Scenario: Since after the strong growth and after the false breakout there is no fall and consolidation is formed, we can expect the continuation of the growth because I also point out a few more things: - strong trend on senior timeframes - locally the price does not update the minimums - resistance retest is formed - consolidation on the background of the uptrend. Correspondingly: a break of the triangle resistance may increase buying interest, which may lead to another rally to ATH and even update it to 120K.
Long
by AndeWave
2
BTCUSD - Will history repeats itself ?This post is just a correction from a post I made last month I missed on identifying correctly the pattern because I thought the middle of the channel would act as a strong support ended up being wrong on the timing of the next wave up - not a big deal tho I also profit of this moment to update the fractal path that's BTC is doing, as you can see the asset is just copying move from last year (in violet) this is quite interesting because it did this the whole cycle, i don't remember seeing this before but maybe i'm wrong so yeah the violet bar patterns says we go great wave up in a few days can you believe it ? i'll start to take profit next month but not sure 100% id like to see what is going to do Pectra update on Eth's price Here's a bigger picture i made in November still working very well : not financial advice Cheers
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Investwine
Bitcoin Update: Bears Nightmare!Bitcoin decently moved as expected according to my last analysis and now is ranging between 90 - 107K for almost 2 months and now I expect the price to make another last correction to GETTEX:97K and grab the liquidity to make a new leg up to the new all-time high of $130K and start the main move to my ultimate target of $150K. The zone between 154 - 172K will be the final top for BTC in this cycle in my opinion and I will fully close all my positions and execute my profits whenever the price hits this zone. I hope you guys all be in profit and stay safe and always DYOR.
Long
by farhadnmd
5
HelenP. I Bitcoin can correct to support level and start to growHi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. In this chart, the price declined to the trend line and then rebounded and started to grow inside the pennant, where it soon reached the support level. After this movement, the price broke this level, which coincided with the support zone and made a retest, after which continued to move up to the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone. Then BTC made the small correction, after which in a short time, it rose to the resistance zone and then made a correction movement to the 99500 support level. Next, the price made a strong impulse up to 109560 points (NEW ATH), breaking the resistance level, but soon turned around and dropped back to the trend line. Price some time traded near the trend line and then rose to the resistance zone, after which turned around and started to decline. In a short time, BTC fell to the trend line, broke it, thereby exiting from the pennant pattern also, and then continued to fall. At the moment, the price continues to decline and I expect that BTCUSDT will decline to the support level and then start to grow to the resistance level. For this level, I set my goal at 105800 level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Long
by FirstNameHelen
14
BTCUSDT Trade LogBTCUSDT – 4H Kijun Retest Price Action & Analysis: BTC is currently hovering around the 4H Kijun level, which has acted as reliable support. We expect a continuation of the bullish momentum going into the weekend, anticipating a clean drive up as buyers step in. Trade Idea (Long): – Entry: Buy now at market. – Risk: 1% of account. – Reward: Target a 1:3 RRR (place stop-loss just below the 4H Kijun or last swing low). – Watch out for any macro news that may trigger unexpected volatility. If price fails to hold above the Kijun, manage or exit the trade.
Long
by Fondera
BTCUSDT ( BITCOIN ) TODAY'S MAPPING IN 4H TF MUST CHECK IT OUT Hello Guy's Welcome To Another Day Of TRADING Here we are mapping chart of BTCUSDT ( BITCOIN ) in 4-Hour TF Our chart shows Bitcoin's price moving within a triangle shape. The price is going up and down, getting squeezed into a smaller range. What this means: The price is preparing for a big move, either up or down. If it breaks up: The price might increase a lot. SUPPORT LEVEL 103,500 2ND SUPPORT. 102,000 TARGET IS 106,500 - 108,000 If the price breaks above resistance, it’s a bullish signal. If it breaks below support, it’s bearish. If it breaks down: The price might drop, possibly toward the orange zone (2nd support area).
Long
by Art_of_TradingFX
AXS Price Analysis: The Road to $10, $13, and Beyond 50$The cryptocurrency market is heating up, and Axie Infinity (AXS) is positioning itself as a potential breakout star. Currently trading around $5.70, AXS is showing signs of accumulation, setting the stage for a significant move. 🔎 Market Structure & Key Levels 📊 Support Zone: Strong support is forming around $5.00-$5.50, indicating that buyers are stepping in. 📊 Breakout Zone: A breakout above $7.00 could trigger bullish momentum. 📊 Short-Term Targets: $10 and $13, based on previous resistance and Fibonacci levels. 📊 Long-Term Potential: If momentum builds, AXS could revisit $50-$100, aligning with historical uptrends. 🔥 Why AXS Could Rally in This Bull Market 🚀 Bullish Market Cycle: With Bitcoin leading the way, altcoins like AXS often follow with explosive gains. 🚀 Token Unlock Events: While unlocks can create short-term supply pressure, they also increase liquidity and market participation. 🚀 Smart Money Moves: Institutional investors and whales may accumulate at these levels before the next rally. 🌍 Macro Factors Boosting Crypto 💡 Pro-Crypto Sentiment: The new U.S. administration is leaning towards clearer crypto regulations, which could fuel mainstream adoption. 💡 Institutional Interest: BlackRock’s CEO Larry Fink believes Bitcoin could reach $700,000, suggesting crypto still has massive upside potential. 💡 Growing Adoption: As Web3 gaming gains traction, AXS stands to benefit from increased utility and user engagement. 📌 Investor Takeaway AXS is currently at a discounted price, making this a strategic entry point for investors eyeing the next bull run. A break above $7.00 could confirm a strong uptrend, paving the way for double-digit gains in the short term and exponential growth in the long run. 🔔 Stay ahead of the market – monitor AXS closely and position accordingly!
Long
by PROFITPULSE10X
Bitcoin at a Crossroads Will $104K Support Hold the Line ?Bitcoin/USDT market, where price action is confined within a symmetrical triangle pattern. This pattern reflects a period of consolidation and market indecision, as buyers and sellers are evenly matched, leading to a narrowing price range. The eventual breakout from such a formation is often significant, as it indicates the market's chosen direction. A notable observation on the chart is the fakeout above the upper trendline. The price briefly moved past this resistance but failed to hold, retreating back into the triangle. This suggests weak bullish momentum or strong resistance, possibly trapping early buyers and increasing volatility as these positions are unwound. Bitcoin's movement has also impacted altcoins. The retreat within the triangle appears to have triggered another round of declines in altcoin prices. Given Bitcoin's dominance in the crypto market, its stability and direction often dictate broader market trends. A decisive move by Bitcoin is critical for a potential recovery in altcoins. The $104,000 level serves as a crucial support area in the current scenario. A breakdown below this support could lead to intensified selling pressure, with the next potential targets around $102,000 and $100,000. On the other hand, if this level holds, it could act as a foundation for another attempt to break above the triangle's resistance. This would restore market confidence and likely initiate a rally. There are two potential outcomes. A bullish breakout above the triangle, supported by strong volume, could spark upward momentum and drive altcoin prices higher. The measured move target for such a breakout would typically equal the height of the triangle projected upward. Alternatively, if Bitcoin fails to hold $104,000, the bearish scenario would see a breakdown below the lower trendline, resulting in a deeper correction. Volume analysis is essential in this context. A genuine breakout is often accompanied by significant trading volume, while low-volume moves are more likely to reverse or fail. Traders should remain cautious, especially as the price approaches the apex of the triangle, where volatility tends to spike. Bitcoin's price action is also influenced by external factors such as market sentiment, news events, and broader macroeconomic conditions. Considering these elements alongside the chart structure is essential for a comprehensive analysis. Traders should wait for a confirmed breakout above or below the triangle before taking directional positions, with stop-losses in place to manage risk effectively.
BINANCE:BTCUSD.P
by wolfchemist
Bitcoin midterm and short term BEARISH,Increasing VolatilityI am currently bearish again in BTCUSD. After hitting all time high in December 2025 as expected BTCUSD was not able anymore to increase gains. THE LONG TERM TREND IS BULLISH; BUT MID AND SHORT TERM TREND bearish. Above 100.582 although it seems that bulls gain power, the bears attack fast and successfully the bulls. (orange area). In the chart you see how I dvided the prices into two categories(red+green areas) OR WHERE BULLS (green) and bears(red) have control. AT 100K;9560 specially volatility increases fast, a sign that these areas are fought by both powers. In these ares mayn false signals and false breakouts on both sides are possible.(fire) A drop below 90560 leads BTC to 81229,73k and 68,7K Below that area we will face a choppy but volatile market. The increaisng of volatility gains power of news,(also fake news), sudden catalysts.So be aware specially in those areas. The long term POC(Magnet sysmbol) is located at 49559 now.That is very important as these locations are very big magnets and attracting the price. In between we have very dangerouse gap that is also attracting BTCUSD price.(see the Chart) Here some important new of the last days and my interpretation that align with my bearish signal: Republicans will still have to deal with the debt ceiling in 2025....(the news and Interpretation how it will affect financial markets and crypto in 2025) Although President-elect Donald Trump wanted to start 2025 without having to worry about the debt ceiling, he did not get his wish. Addressing the debt ceiling, which will be reinstated on January 2, is still on the list of congressional Republicans’ New Year’s resolutions. The House last week fell far short of passing a two-year extension of the suspension of the limit as part of a GOP-led government spending bill. 👉M y Interpretation: Here’s how it could impact Bitcoin and the markets in general: The news regarding the U.S. debt ceiling highlights a potential risk to financial markets and the broader economy in 2025. Here’s how it could impact Bitcoin and the markets in general: Key Points from the News Debt Ceiling Reinstatement The U.S. debt ceiling will be reinstated on January 2, 2025, and congressional Republicans are expected to address it. A debt ceiling crisis can cause political and economic uncertainty, especially if there is a failure to raise or suspend the ceiling. Government Spending Package Last week, Congress passed a government funding bill that did not address the debt ceiling, disappointing President-elect Donald Trump’s wishes to resolve the issue sooner. Potential Market Impact Debt ceiling crises in the past have led to market volatility, particularly in equities, as investors react to the uncertainty and the potential for a government shutdown or a default on U.S. debt obligations. Implications for Bitcoin and Markets Increased Risk and Volatility Debt ceiling concerns often create broader market anxiety, especially in traditional markets. Bitcoin, being seen as a "safe-haven" asset by some investors, could experience increased interest if there are fears of U.S. financial instability, a default, or a downgrade of U.S. credit. Demand for Alternative Assets During periods of heightened economic uncertainty or risk of financial crisis, assets like Bitcoin and gold are often viewed as alternative stores of value. Investors may seek refuge in these assets, increasing demand and possibly providing upward pressure on Bitcoin prices. Risk of U.S. Dollar Volatility Dollar volatility due to the debt ceiling issue could also lead to heightened interest in Bitcoin. A weakened dollar could boost Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge, pushing prices higher. Conversely, if the U.S. government resolves the debt ceiling issue efficiently, the pressure on Bitcoin may ease, and its price may fall. Market Sentiment and Speculation Given Bitcoin's speculative nature, market participants may react strongly to news surrounding the debt ceiling. Speculative trading could amplify price swings, especially as investors price in possible outcomes of the debt ceiling debate. How This Affects Your Bitcoin Position Potential for Volatility(Fire symbol in the chart) If the debt ceiling issue creates a crisis, Bitcoin could see increased demand as a safe-haven asset, potentially driving prices higher in the short term. However, if the situation stabilizes without a major crisis, the demand might subside, and Bitcoin’s price could stabilize or decline. Key Resistance and Support Watch for key levels around the current Bitcoin price (e.g., $93K-$95K). If the debt ceiling crisis intensifies, these levels could be breached in either direction depending on market sentiment. $90K and $85K remain critical support zones if the bearish trend continues. Monitor Global Sentiment Keep an eye on broader market sentiment, especially around U.S. debt ceiling developments and their effects on traditional financial markets. If broader markets experience a sell-off due to debt ceiling issues, Bitcoin could initially benefit from a flight to alternative assets. Conclusion The debt ceiling issue is a significant risk factor that could cause increased volatility in both traditional financial markets and Bitcoin. Given Bitcoin’s reputation as a hedge against uncertainty, the news could lead to short-term price increases if investors flock to it as a safe-haven asset. However, it’s essential to monitor how the U.S. government addresses the issue and the overall market sentiment. Continue to manage risk carefully, as the situation may evolve quickly. Bitcoin’s ‘Kimchi Premium’ Jumps Amid South Korean Political Turmoil (this news+ 👉I nterpretation) “Kimchi Premium,” which refers to the price gap between Bitcoin on South Korean exchange Upbit compared to Coinbase, has surged to the range of 3-5% this week, according to data compiled by blockchain data platform CryptoQuant. An increase in the metric usually indicates an elevated demand from South Korea-based investors in Bitcoin. The same metric for stablecoin Tether also has surged to the similar range. “South Korea faces an unprecedented wealth outflow amid political turmoil, declining birth rates, and slowing growth,” said Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant. “Inflation fears drive conversions of won assets into US stocks, Bitcoin, gold, and dollars. Many crypto investors prefer exchanges over banks, with Tether and Bitcoin trading at 2-5% premiums. 👉I nterpretation: This news about Bitcoin’s "Kimchi Premium" highlights the dynamics of South Korea's crypto market amid political and economic turmoil. Let’s break it down in the context of trading approach and bearish signal: Key Insights from the News Kimchi Premium Surge (3-5%) The "Kimchi Premium" reflects the higher price of Bitcoin on South Korean exchanges compared to global exchanges like Coinbase. A 3-5% premium signals elevated demand from South Korean retail investors. This surge suggests strong local buying interest, likely driven by uncertainty in traditional markets and the weakening South Korean won. Inflation Concerns and Asset Diversification Wealth outflows and inflation fears are pushing South Korean investors to move their capital into alternative assets, including Bitcoin, Tether, US stocks, and gold. A preference for crypto exchanges over banks adds to the demand, with Bitcoin and Tether trading at a premium. Political Turmoil President Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration, impeachment, and the ongoing crisis have destabilized financial markets. The uncertainty adds to investor anxiety, further increasing the demand for alternative assets. Retail-Driven Market South Korea’s crypto market is predominantly retail-driven due to restrictions on corporate accounts. This means that market sentiment and speculative activity significantly influence prices. Weakened South Korean Won The won's decline against the US dollar (0.35%) adds to the appeal of USD-denominated assets like Bitcoin and Tether. This could sustain or even expand the premium. Implications for Bitcoin's Price Short-Term Buying Pressure in South Korea The Kimchi Premium surge indicates localized demand but doesn’t necessarily mean a global price rally. The premium reflects South Korea’s retail enthusiasm, not broader market strength. Impact of Retail Speculation Retail-driven buying can create short-term upward momentum but often lacks the sustainability of institutional-driven demand. If global macro factors or technical resistance levels remain bearish, the local demand may not prevent further declines. Risk of a Bubble or Sudden Sell-Off A rising premium can sometimes signal excessive speculation. If South Korean retail investors begin unwinding positions, it could lead to a sharp local correction, adding selling pressure to global markets. How This Aligns with Your Bearish Signal Localized vs. Global Trends While the Kimchi Premium shows localized buying pressure, your bearish signal likely reflects global market trends. Bitcoin’s recent drop from $104K to $93K aligns with broader market dynamics and not just South Korea-specific activity. Watch for Technical Reactions If Bitcoin approaches key support levels (e.g., $90K), South Korean demand could provide temporary relief. However, a failure to hold support might invalidate local demand as a bullish factor. Evaluate Reversals Cautiously Even with rising demand in South Korea, monitor if the global bearish trend shows signs of reversal (e.g., higher lows, breaking key resistance levels like $95K-$100K). Until then, stick with your bearish outlook. Key Levels and Trading Strategy Support Zones Key levels to watch: $90K and $85K. A break below these could signal further downside, regardless of localized buying interest. Resistance to Watch If Bitcoin rebounds, resistance at $95K-$100K will be crucial to determine whether the bearish trend is weakening. Potential for False Breakouts South Korea-driven price spikes might create false breakouts. Ensure your technical signals confirm any potential reversal before adjusting your strategy. Bottom Line The surge in the Kimchi Premium reflects localized demand due to South Korea’s political and economic instability. However, this does not necessarily negate the global bearish trend you've been following. Continue monitoring global signals, support/resistance levels, and whether the localized buying pressure can translate into broader market strength. Stay disciplined and adapt your strategy based on technical confirmations rather than isolated news events. News2 Why Bitcoin (Still) Likely Has Not Reached a Cycle Top Yet Over a longer-term horizon though, there are plenty of indicators that suggest we may still be a way, in both time and price, from a cycle top in Bitcoin. The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-score, which compares the current price to the aggregate cost paid for all outstanding Bitcoin, has moved up from the < 1 level that has historically marked bear market bottoms in early 2023 to roughly 3 as of late December 2024. 👉I nterpretation Let's break down this news in the context of your bearish signal on Bitcoin and how it could influence the current market dynamics: Key Insights from the News MVRV Z-Score at ~3 The MVRV Z-Score is used to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to its historical patterns. Historically, cycle tops occur when this metric moves significantly higher, often near 7. At a Z-Score of 3, the news implies that Bitcoin is still below levels historically associated with a cycle top. This suggests there could still be room for upward movement in the longer term. Long-Term Holder (HODLer) Supply Decline A 7% drop in the proportion of Bitcoin held for over a year indicates increased selling pressure from long-term holders. This release of 1.4M BTC into the market adds to the supply, creating potential headwinds for price growth. Despite this, the news points out that cycle tops typically occur when this indicator drops further, suggesting we haven’t yet reached that point. ETF Inflows and Market Offset While long-term holders have been selling, some of this supply pressure has been absorbed by large ETF inflows. However, this balancing act might not sustain the price if selling accelerates. Uncertainty in Historical Patterns The article emphasizes that Bitcoin’s historical cycles may not repeat exactly due to limited data. This means that while historical indicators suggest the cycle top isn’t yet reached, the current cycle could deviate. Implications for Your Bearish Signal Short-Term Downtrend The bearish signal you received two weeks ago aligns with the current price drop from 104K to 93K. This selling pressure might be attributed to long-term holders liquidating part of their positions, as the news mentions. Medium- to Long-Term Outlook Despite the short-term bearish action, the MVRV Z-Score and HODLer supply suggest the cycle top may still be ahead. This means the current drop might be part of a broader consolidation or retracement before another rally. ETF Inflows as a Buffer While long-term holders selling adds pressure, ETF inflows could stabilize the market. Watch for news about ETF approvals, inflows, or rejections, as these could heavily influence Bitcoin’s next move. How to Align with Technical Analysis Short-Term Action Stick with your bearish signal for now, as the price trend supports it. If Bitcoin continues to fall or fails to hold key support levels (e.g., $90K), the bearish trend could intensify. Monitor Key Levels Watch for significant support zones (e.g., $90K or $85K). A break below these levels could validate further downside. On the flip side, if Bitcoin starts consolidating and moves back above $95K or $100K, it may signal a potential reversal. Use Leading Indicators Keep an eye on the MVRV Z-Score, HODLer behavior, and ETF news. A change in these metrics could signal whether the bearish momentum is temporary or part of a broader trend. Bottom Line The news indicates that the current bearish trend might be a retracement within a larger bull market. However, in the short term, supply pressure from long-term holders and bearish technical signals could continue to drive prices lower. Stay cautious, manage risk, and monitor both the technical levels and fundamental indicators closely. This combination will help you navigate the market effectively.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by DaveBrascoFX
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