Feb 2024 set up repeating? Bitcoin has been moving in the range bound for a few months now. The market is very volatile and many inexperienced traders are liquidated. Some are starting to talk about the end of the bull market, but I can see a very bullish price set up in the weekly chart.
The current set up in the weekly chart is very similar to that in Jan/Feb 2024 (see the blue boxes and vertical lines in the chart).
1) The price is still closing above EMA 21.
2)MACD momentum is weakening and MACD lines about touching but haven't crossed to the downside. Also MACD is clearly in the bull zone.
3) RSI has reached the overbought territory and the purple line (signal line?) has come down, but the slope of the orange line (signal line or slow MACD line? sorry I forgot what it is called!) is still up. As I said in the previous analysis, RSI orange line tends to remove the market noises and shows the general direction of the price.
4)Stochastic is moving to the downside, however, they are still in the bull zone and it is the fastest reacting momentum indicator, so the direction can shift quite quickly.
If the price action of the Feb 2024 repeats, a parabolic leg up is coming soon. It is not a guaranteed move, so you need to respond accordingly to the price action of today, not that of Feb 2024!
If a daily candle decisively moves and closes above $98,000 area and 4H MACD crosses to the upside and enters the bull zone, it might be a good opportunity to buy spot or open a long position for swing trade (with low leverage!)
BTCUSDT
EURAUD Analysis Bullish Flag Breakout PotentialEURAUD is currently trading at 1.65600, with a target price of 1.70000. This indicates an expected upward movement of 500+ pips. A bullish flag pattern has been identified, which is a continuation pattern signaling potential further gains. The pattern suggests a temporary consolidation before a breakout to the upside. Traders anticipate a strong bullish move once the resistance level is breached. Volume and momentum should confirm the breakout for a higher probability trade. Risk management is crucial, with stop-loss placement below the flag’s support. Fundamental factors like interest rate decisions and economic data can influence price action. A successful breakout may attract more buyers, accelerating the upward movement. Monitoring price action near resistance is key for trade execution.
BTC Fractal PredictionFacts:
The orange oval shows the part of the chart I used to create the forecast.
Yelllow green zones are demand FVGs and purple zones are supply. The green zone signifies the demand order block, and the zones are based on 9h TF.
Fibs are based on long term levels (not drawn from renko values).
*Note this is a Renko chart
Opinion:
If the prediction has any semblance to what will happen, it would be reasonable to suggest longs are accumulating down to maybe 88k without going too low where traders will then try to grab as much liquidity from 91-99k on the way up to sell after they push the price past ATH. A wick down to 88k, as low as even 84k could be expected here, and if the fear index continues dropping we might even see 80k being the target with a wick down to 76k. A bottom in the 70k range might result in an ATH target around 169k, while 141k would be what I think is the next top for a less extreme scenario, 123-125k being either the consolidation or retracement level for all cases. Next level after 141/169 would be the big 200k, where in most attempts at using this method of pattern prediction has shown it would very quickly retrace from.
As time passes, confidence in the 73k level as final support is increasing quickly as VWAPS, ATR based supports and moving averages continue to meet and surpass that price level on longer and longer timeframes and lengths. It might require very specific circumstances along with a very coordinated selloff to cause the price to drop below 73. How the market reacts once we break our 91k support will be interesting to see as there are more new investors and crytpo derivatives this season than ever.
Phemex Analysis #56: How to Trade BTC Like a ProBitcoin, the king of cryptocurrencies, has long been a focal point for traders and investors alike. As we enter February 2025, Bitcoin is navigating complex market conditions—facing both optimism and challenges. With its price hovering around $98,000 after a significant recovery from recent dips, traders are now speculating on what’s next for this leading digital asset.
Let’s explore four possible scenarios that could shape Bitcoin’s future in the coming weeks and how you can trade them like a pro.
Scenario 1: Base-Building Small Drop
Imagine this: Bitcoin experiences a small correction to the $90,000 area but instead of plummeting further, it begins building a strong base at this level. This scenario would be confirmed if the drop occurs with higher RSI (Relative Strength Index) values and lower trading volume compared to previous declines—such as the drop on February 3rd.
In such cases, traders should watch for signs of accumulation near $90,000 as it could signal renewed buying interest before another potential rally.
Pro Tips:
• Monitor volume and RSI closely; if they align with base-building conditions (higher RSI & lower volume), consider entering long positions gradually.
• Set stop-losses below key support levels to manage risk effectively.
Scenario 2: Bearish Sharp Drop
Now picture this: Bitcoin fails to hold its crucial support level at $90,000 and drops sharply below it. If this happens with high trading volume and lower RSI compared to previous drops (like February 3rd), it could indicate further bearish momentum. In such cases, traders might need to prepare for deeper declines toward key support zones at $67,000 or even as low as $58,000.
Pro Tips:
• Stay cautious initially; avoid entering trades until there’s clear confirmation of direction.
• Consider shorting once price breaks below $89,000 with higher volume & lower RSI than previous drops.
Scenario 3: Consolidation
Another possibility is that Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase—bouncing between key levels of $110,000 (resistance) and $90,000 (support). During such periods of reduced volatility:
Traders can deploy grid trading bots:
• Set up long grid bots near the lower boundary ($90k) when prices rebound from support.
• Set up short grid bots near the upper boundary ($110k) when prices approach resistance.
• Remember to set stop-losses in case price breaks out above resistance or falls below support levels—it’s crucial for managing risk during consolidation phases.
Scenario 4: Bullish Breakout
Lastly—and perhaps least likely given current market conditions—is another bullish breakout scenario. Despite showing some divergence in its one-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), where price increases are accompanied by decreasing RSI values, anything can happen in crypto markets. A massive positive news event related to U.S. policy changes or advancements in AI technology could suddenly shift sentiment towards optimism again:
Traders should remain vigilant:
• Keep an eye on news cycles closely; unexpected announcements can trigger rapid rallies.
• Be prepared for sudden shifts but maintain caution due to current technical indicators suggesting less likelihood of immediate breakouts.
Conclusion
Trading Bitcoin requires staying informed about macroeconomic trends—such as tariff concerns affecting global markets—and adapting strategies based on evolving market conditions. Whether you’re navigating sharp drops like Scenario 2 or capitalizing on consolidations like Scenario 3—or even preparing for less likely scenarios like Scenario 4—the key is discipline combined with flexibility.
As you trade BTC like a pro:
• Stay alert for geopolitical developments that might impact cryptocurrency markets.
• Manage your risks wisely by setting appropriate stop-losses across all scenarios.
• Adapt your strategy based on changing market dynamics—it’s essential in today’s fast-paced crypto world!
So gear up and navigate these complex waters confidently!
Tips:
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Disclaimer: This is NOT financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own research (DYOR). Phemex is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss incurred or claimed to be caused by or in association with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in this article.
Bitcoin 874d, 218d channels explored. Today I explore and log the patterns of Bitcoins 2015-2018 cycle using a simple SMA, Puell Multiple, NUPL indicators.
"Bitcoin: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)"
As I measure the capitulation on the 2015 period we get a upwards channel that forms the majority major trend of the Bitcoin bull market, so far I got 847d because the BPM, NUPL started to tap the upper trend line including the Pi cycle that also experiences a break out.
After the breakout of the sideways up trending channel occurred we follow a 218d period of what I could call it the "vertical phase" of the bull market.
So far monitoring this situation in todays market we are right at the end of the range where the next logical move could occur. Understandable if this market repeats it has some serious price valuations that could occur before year end.
Is it crazy to believe we could be over $150,000 by the end of the march? I don't really think so.
Interesting events are unfolding and if this next move is as volatile as the 2015 cycle I think we should expect a similar pattern emerging where capital FOMO's into Bitcoin once again.
Thank you.
Crucial point for Bitcoin on the 3 week chartThis 21 day chart shows the green price ranges drop happens every time the white RSI line touches the yellow rsi line. Minimum drop is around 25%.
As you can see 3 times it signalled the top was in and bear market to start. However on the RSI we can see that it has not got that shaded green area similar to every other bull run.
The yellow price range on chart signals current candle drop whilst the orange price range shows the potential minimum should this play out as described.
Each price drop is measured from candle at touch on RSI to the very next candle only.
From this we can deduct that a huge bounce from here is about to happen to restart the last leg up and form the shaded green area on rsi, or
price will drop minimum 25% which is another 11% from current price. From there price moves up to continue bull run or we enter the bear market cycle.
BTC/USDT BINANCE DBINANCE:BTCUSDT still trading in giant flag.
Highs/resistance @ $108,000
Lows/support @ 0.618 fib/$92,715.
99sma on D holding strong.
OBV resistance turned support is holding.
Bids at 99sma could prove to be a nice swing trade.
To look out for:
- OBV closes below current support.
- Double top warning - Drop & close below neckline @ support or0.618 fib.
BTCUSDT. Daily and Hourly TFHey traders and investors!
On the daily timeframe, the price is in the middle of the range. The current seller's vector is 13-14, with a potential target of 91,231.
On the hourly timeframe, the price is below the lower boundary of the range. The current buyer's vector is 8-9, with a potential target of 100,777.
Selling Strategies
Selling (short) setups should be considered from the upper levels of the range:
- For the hourly timeframe: 100,777 and 102,500. Alternatively, below 96,150, when the seller breaks out of the range downward and confirms this breakout.
- For the daily timeframe: 102,500 – 109,588.
Buying Strategies
Buying (long) setups should be considered from the lower levels of the range:
- On the hourly timeframe, the price is currently in this zone. However, the lower boundary of the hourly range has been traded through. Looking for buy setups below 99,149 is risky, while above 99,149, the risk-reward ratio may not be favorable until the potential target is reached (100,777).
- On the daily timeframe, key levels to consider for buying are 91,231 – 89,256.
I wish you profitable trades!
BTC/USDT -H1- Bearish Channel (06.02.2025)The BTC/USDT Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Channel Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 90412
2nd Support – 87124
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BTC/USDT 4h Chart Hello everyone, let's look at the 4H BTC chart to USDT, in this situation we can see how the price moves below the local inheritance trend line.
However, let's start by defining goals for the near future the price must face:
T1 = 98825 $
T2 = 100446 $
Т3 = 101785 $
T4 = 103088 $
Let's go to Stop-Loss now in case of further declines on the market:
SL1 = 96675 $
SL2 = 94843 $
SL3 = 93081 $
SL4 = 90544 $
BTCUSDT Trade LogBTCUSDT – Bullish Rebound Setup
Market Context: BTC is currently trading near a 4H Fair Value Gap, with multiple wicks indicating buyers are stepping in. The 4H Kijun and the FVG overlap provide a strong confluence area for a potential bounce. Despite recent bearish pressure, a range-bound environment suggests a bullish bias could play out if price holds above this support region.
Trade Idea (Long):
– Entry: Look to buy on a retest of the 4H FVG or once the 4H Kijun confirms support.
– Stop: Place just below the recent wicks or the lower boundary of the FVG.
– Risk: 1% of account (or per your risk plan).
– Target: Aim for a minimum of 1:2 RRR, targeting the next key structure high or daily supply zone.
Risk Management: If price decisively breaks below the FVG and invalidates the Kijun support, exit the trade and wait for another setup. Remain watchful of macro news as it can spark sudden volatility.
BTCUSD I Potential for downside but growth expected Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** BTCUSD Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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Timing the End of the Altcoin Bull MarketHello,
BTC dominance is currently around 55%. From my analysis, the altcoin bull market typically ends when BTC dominance drops to the 47%-40% range. At that point, it’s wise to prepare for selling altcoins, while also monitoring the total market cap for signs of a decline. For now, the bull market remains active.
As always, remember to stick to risk management.
BR,
BITCOIN - preparing for something great!on 12H chart btc showing a consolidation of bullish pennant pattern.. Breaking it will provide a massive push to break the larger megaphone pattern.
The chart also shows a hidden bullish divergence on the RSI indicator.
Bitcoin is now on its way to retest its previous high at $109K, and if it successfully breaks through, the price is expected to surpass $125K.
Best regards Ceciliones
Bitcoin Poised for Breakdown: Bearish Momentum Targets $81Khello guys!
Market Structure & Key Levels
The chart presents a 4-hour timeframe analysis of Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) on Binance. The price action is contained within a large consolidation zone, with two distinct liquidity hunts labeled:
The first hunt at the lower boundary
The second hunt at the upper boundary
Currently, BTC is breaking down from the upper range, indicating a potential shift from consolidation to a bearish move.
Key Observations
Liquidity Hunts & Market Manipulation:
The price previously swept liquidity from both the upper and lower boundaries before retracing inside the consolidation zone.
This suggests a classic liquidity grab before a bigger directional move.
Potential Breakdown Structure:
The price has tested resistance near the upper boundary and has been sharply rejected.
The price has broken below the mid-range consolidation and is showing weakness.
The projected path suggests a breakdown towards $81,400 - $80,200.
Bearish Bias Confirmation:
The drawn forecast indicates a lower high formation, followed by a continuation to the downside.
If BTC loses support around $92,000 - $90,000, it could accelerate towards the $82,000 - $81,500 demand zone.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: $100,000 - $102,000 (previous consolidation resistance)
Support: $92,000 - $90,000 (key breakdown zone)
Bearish Target: $81,500 - $80,000
Conclusion
The analysis suggests a potential bearish breakout below the range. Traders should monitor break-and-retest confirmations at key support/resistance levels before making decisions. If BTC fails to reclaim the mid-range, a move towards $81,500 becomes highly probable.
BITCOIN It will grow soon...As I mentioned, the price dropped and reached the bottom of the triangle. Now that most people are disappointed with the crypto market, it's time for growth to begin again. Just like in 2022, this drop was natural to shift funds from meme coins to more useful projects in the crypto market.I Expect Bitcoin to reach $123000.
PREVIOUS ANALYSIS
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❗Disclaimer
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
BTCUSDT - UniverseMetta - Signal#BTCUSDT - UniverseMetta - Signal
D1 - Formation of potential 3rd wave.
H4 - ABC-structure is formed, when leaving the local channel we can try to work out targets to the upper boundary. It is better not to increase risks. Stop at the minimum of the 2nd wave.
Entry: 98414.33
TP: 100140.02 - 102515.11 - 104752.11- 109474.67
Stop: 95721.29
Bitcoin can continue to fall in downward channel to 92K pointsHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price declined from the support level a little below and then started to grow inside the upward pennant, where it at once broke the support level again and continued to move up. Later BTC reached a resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone, and even rose, breaking this level to 108700 points and then turning around. Price fell below the resistance level, but soon backed up and some time traded between this level until it reached the resistance line of the pennant and then started to decline. In a short time, the price fell below the resistance level, breaking it, and soon exited from the pennant also, after which continued to move down inside the downward channel. In the channel BTC rebounded from the support line and rose to the seller zone, where it some time traded and then continued to decline, breaking the 104500 resistance level again. Bitcoin fell into the buyer zone, where it turned around and made a strong impulse up to the resistance line of the channel. And recently price bounced from this line and continued to move down. So, I think that Bitcoin can move up and then fall lower than the support level, breaking it. For this case, I set my TP at 92K points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
It's disappointing !!!Once again, The price action could drop to $95K and then return to its peak. It will take some time to recover from the damage that these sh*t meme coins have done to the crypto market.
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⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Bullish and Bearish cases for Bitcoin right now
It is the question on Everyones lips right now
Where next for Bitcoin
And there are so many options available to look at
To start on the Bullish . The chart above is very dependant on PA still following previous cycle patterns and, if it is, then we still have a long way to go as we have only just entered the 4th section of a 4 year cycle. As you can see, ATH;s are reached when we break over the top line...and we are not even half way there yet.
As you may know if you have seen my previous charts, I believe we are following a fractal of the 2013-2017 ATH cycle.
The Circle on the left highlights where I thin we are on that fractel and you can see it involves 4 months of range. PA came up to the line, ranged below for 4 months and then broke through
We have crossed that line in this cycle and began ranging
We have just begun the 3rd Month
If we look at that fractel a little closer
We can see how PA has followed Fractal and how, right now, we are about to break under it.
We did that in August to October 2023 and it could be sauid that that period was very nearly and entry into a Bear market. Onchain data indicated that.
This is where I begin to get bearish. But I still believe that Q3 & Q4 will be good for BTC
Maybe we will repeat that August - October 2023 -18% Dip.
So, Why am I also Bearish
There are a number of reasons. The First and most suggestive reason is simply the Weekly MACD is overbought, up high, higher than it was in 2021 ATH zone.
I have never seen the weekly MACD range high like that. the closest was back in 2013
Now this does not mean PA will Drop but it does mean PA is overbought and it will react.
RSI is way up high also
And one of the easiest ways of seeing the Bearish case is simply the chart below
PA has reached the Rejecting trend line that rejected PA 2017 and 2021 - BUT, a valid trendline requires a minimum of 3 touches. PA has not fully reached the trend line yet, there is another 5%, so one last push is still possible, to around 110K
And then we have Mr Trump and his pre election promises of Bitcoin reserves that now seem to be put on a shelf.
As we are seeing, Mr Trump uses words as leverage and negotiates his path with them.
Tarif threats to China, for instance, have resulted in a "Talk about future deals"
Was his Bitcoin Talk only there to use as leverage against Banks to get what he wants.......
I remind you, As of February 4, 2025, Eric Trump, the son of Donald Trump, has publicly endorsed Ether, suggesting it's a "great time" to invest in the cryptocurrency. This endorsement came as the Trump family's crypto venture, World Liberty Financial, transferred over $307 million in crypto to Coinbase Prime, including $212.6 million in Ether.
ETH is the favoured one in the USA, they can controll it.
So, whats next for BITCOIN?
We have to wait, there are arguments for and against
We have just entered the 4th year of a 4 year cycle, historically, the year of ATH
Sentiment is good and Bitcoin acceptance by corporations world wide has spread rapidly.
Numerous technicals suggest more to come after a cool down
Conversly, we do seem to be under pressure from other Technicals that may tip the balance against further rises on Bitcoin.
Macro situations are becoming more volatile.
The USA economy is facing rising inflation again and with Trumps policy, may suffer a major reset, which would knock the wind out of the Crpyto market.
If the $ becomes Stronger, as it is expected to do, this will knock the wind out of the Crpyto Market
We are also seeing GOLD take a lot of money again, keeping Bitcoin from taking that money.
We all need to watch very carefully right now.
Thigs could change VERY quickly in either direction.
For me, I have plans in place and I am waiting, watching
Be Ready my friends.....do not be caught by surprise