Btcust
Bitcoin - The Weakness Continues ~ 4h Closing Under 50%I focus on providing live education and support to those interested in trading, Cryptocurrencies, and Blockchain technology. You will learn charting techniques, technical analysis, and the most popular cryptocurrencies for trading. My content is ideally suited for beginner to intermediate level traders.
7 Reasons Bitcoin Is Bullish in Less Than 1 Minute. Hi Guys!
So lets take a look at the Daily chart here.
Looks like Shit, I know - BUT There is a positive takeaway.
If we look back at the charts over the course of the past 365 days we see a trend that has repeated itself , quite expectedly on 4 other occasions. So the question is:
DOES HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF?
The LOWER Yellow line is a support line from which BTC has bounced. So how do we know the bottom is in?
1. Bitcoin has defended VERY well at 5900+
2. Each time BTC has touched the BOTTOM of the BOLLINGER BAND (yellow arrow) AND that touch has correlated with an OVERSOLD STOCH (yellow circle) we have bounced
back to an uptrend.
This FACT has held true since Jan and I see no reason for it to NOT continue.
WHERE DO I SEE THE BOTTOM?
$6080-$6120
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
Well I fell 90% confident we will bounce off this bottom in the next 48 hours and head back to $7k. BUT we need volume!!!!
Now comes the interesting part. IF we break $5900, we will go to $5K and the likelihood of a further retract picks up exponentially. However I do not see that happening...
WHY?
Lots of reasons.
1. I see Bitcoin as being in a downward Elliot Wave and this squeeze should pop to the upside. Why????....
2. Bitcoin has almost ALWSY supported its price at or above the price to mine 1 BTC (Currently $5800-ish)
3. BAAKT is kicking off on Oct/Nov and they will have a daily settled ETF. This may not have an immediate impact ton the price but it will open the floodgates of trust for institution investors and the SEC should be able to use the BAKKT ETF as a beta-test that they do not have to be accountable (directly) for.
4. Did we see the NEW SEC Commissioner? Hes bullish on Crpyto. That makes 2 of 5 and likely the extra push we need to get ETFS approved.
5. Unplug from the Matrix and look around. Bitcoin is becoming MUCH more widely known and accepted as a part of life (Hell Walmart is selling BTC Coin candy) and while I am under no illusion that that will change the price of the asset, it does speak to the fact that more exposure, means more adoption and more (slow to enter) money.
6. There is a tremendous amount of Financial institutions that are exploring,. launching or working on a blockchain enterprise solution. This will further spread the value behind blockchain and , thereby the Godfather of them all Bitcoin.
7. We are seeing a massive exit of get rich quick money and now slow-n-stead accumulation is happening.
8. Ok, this was longer than 1 minute. and YES I am bullish on BTC so my charting may be biased. This is not financial advice, just sharing my thoughts.
If you like it, please give a thumbs up and leave a comment!
Love to hear what my fellow Cryptowarriors have to say!
BITCOIN - Something, That Has Not Happened For 4 Years!?Hello!
The TRAIN is unstoppable! In this down-train, we had 7 bearish days in the row a small pause (doji) and three after that! Last time when we got 7 or more red days in the row was 07.2014, so, more than 4 years ago, a pretty significant yes!?
To me, to make a new TA. was very hard and I thought this is even impossible because we need to settle down to make a new and profitable trades! But still, for You, I pointed out some supports and some trendlines what do You need to watch!
There is a red box which means both:
* A bearish confirmation if we get 1day candle close in this area. This means that we have a break/close below the blue trendline and we have a break/close below the round number and strong support from past, $6000 + there we could see some massive panic selling!
If we get a close in this area then my old topic would be again back in the business! My thoughts about the "Clean area" from 12.10.2017 around $5k:
The 'Clean area' means that when the price rallied up and never looked back, the market doesn't accept those areas those areas are like gap's which get filled about 80-90% of the time!
* Bullish?! ONLY then it confirms SOME bullishness when we touch this area and we see a nice candlestick pattern formation and we get a close above the blue trendline. 1day pattern "Hammer", 2day pattern "Engulfing" or 3day pattern "Morning Star" (if You want to know how those patterns look, go and visit my topic "Important Candlestick Patterns")
We might see some pullback, soon we almost have to see some pullback because the market never drops like a stone and the market never rise like a rocket - zigzagzigzag but this ziiiggg is too long :D
My recommendation is, do not trade at the moment because there is just so much pressure, there is a selling pressure and there is also pullback pressure but this pullback would be so quick it may come from nowhere and it will ruin Your trades!
In the update section, as usual, I would like to start collecting confirmations from the shorter timeframes and hopefully, You learn something new from there to become a better trader in the future, so, stay on my channel and take the information with You!
PLEASE, don't forget to SHARE this, hit the LIKE and the FOLLOW button if you feel this topic deserves it!
That's the best way to support me and help to push this analysis to other users.
Best regards!
BTC POINT TO BREAK-OUT Trades,
Here we have BTC/USDT 4H chart.
We have a strong bull trend vs strong bear trend past days of trying to break the bear trend end to be fail and liar but I think this it now by review the H&S I had published since the last try to break
Here
We have to be patience this critical point will determines a lot of directions probability for the next days.
Regards,
Mohsen
Bitcoin: BTCUST Bitcoin Spreads Her Wings+Which Exchange is BestBitcoin: Which Exchange is Best/Most Reliable for trades, stops, and signals? (next buy-points at bottom)
Bitcoin Update Coinbase/Bitstamp and Bitfinex
The ridiculous situation of multiple prices across multiple competing exchanges has once more caused chaos with stops yesterday if they were raised too tight under 9900. The subsequent low on Coinbase was 9914 and was 9902 on Bitstamp - but on Bitfinex it was 9874 which was just crap. Mofo. Sorry for that if you traded this exchange. Coinbase levels have been most reliable for trading signals and stops and Bitstamp too. This constant change is maddening - for all of us and entails twice as much work as simply following one feed as well as the futures market too. For sure Coinbase is less whippy than Bitfinex or Bitstamp and so is better for placing stops - look at the smoothness of the chart on 5 minutes here compared to others - and yet the highest price achieved today was 10307 on Coinbase compared to 10300 on Bitstamp and 10271 lowest high of the 3 on Bitfinex. So Bitfinex loses on best price achieved and Coinbase wins with Bitstamp in middle. The lowest lows of the day were once again made on Bitfinex at 9670, whilst Coinbase had the highest low of the day at 9729 with Bitstamp in the middle again at 9707. Once again Bitfinex loses with Bitstamp in the middle. And then the last raised stop yesterday at 'under 9900' - if you were unlucky enough to trade Bitfinex and had it closer than 25 points under this level it got taken - and yet on the other 2 exchanges the stop stayed good. So yet again Bitfinex fails on every level. Coinbase is best right now, with Bitstamp in the middle and Bitfinex a sorry third.
So am quitting Bitfinex as it's too treacherous with stops. Volatility can can ruin decent calls with 'good' stops. Coinbase is the least volatile, so better for stops, usually.
Last Update: 16:34 est
Anyway, for traders on the less volatile 2 out 3 exchanges who are still long, Bitcoin still looks just fine whilst it holds up above the bigger dynamic and can let it run and raise stops under the next correction low when we get it, except on Bitfinex which probably needs stops at least 50 below/above any similar stop on Coinbase to stay safe. Still believe there is much more upside to come whilst Bitcoin holds that upper dynamic support.
Saturday Update: Bitcoin Spreads her Wings
Bitcoin has had another positive session overnight as Far Eastern buyers begin to return to the market. FUD is so last year. Bitcoin is up 2000 points since the break at 8888 and we were lucky to get both that initial break and the lows of yesterday at 9700 to get long again if stopped out at 9900 on the first long. Every point of upside from the lows so far has been traded and won. We also shorted right down to the exact lows and actually closed out right on the lows of the year before going long again at 6200. Every point of the rally from 6200 to 10800 has been traded and won despite a brief wobble at the 9000 level - but even that break out at 8888 on Coinbase chart was followed and traded faithfully as the patterns on the chart dictated. And the pattern on this chart is saying 12192 minimum over the next 2 to 3 days. In very near term it's had a good run overnight and has hit the resistance line at 10829 after making a high at 10890. It's now unwinding a little but using an old dynamic resistance line as a support as it does so, line-dancing Bitcoin style. Whilst it holds up off that line it's strong still but whilst unable to beat and regain the blue line at 10829 and on up to the new day's highs at 10890 it's effectively in neutral in the very near term- but still with a strong undertone. It can spend some time flipping between the dynamic at 10648-10586 as support and the highs at 10829-10890 as resistance but will ultimately break to the updside. And on downside it will have too break below 10586 to trigger further selling back to 10307 support line where it becomes another buy.
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Getting Real Interesting againBitcoin: BTCUSD Update Getting Interesting Again Now
If you held your stops under 7660 as advised at start of
weekend the 7717 level has proved a good entry point.
However even if stopped out like me for 30 point loss after
spending the weekend fishing, losing bait and cursing and
never getting a chance to buy from lower, at least now, after
breaking above the upper parallel sucesssfully on second
attempt (but not hitting stops placed under 7700) we finally
have a decent long trade on from 7790 highest. That
bear engulfing green candle just now wiped out 34 hours of
sideways movement in 30 minutes flat. This is still strong.
No sellers. Just a few buyers...
we should see another test of the highs very soon.
Depending on risk profile and if long from 7717, either
close down at 7980-8000 range and be ready to buy again on break above
8020 (using 100 points + profit from this current long as stop
for next trade). If it works out you compound winnings so fast
it will make your head spin. If wrong you and stop gets hit
once it busts above 8020 you break even. Or you can hold the
current long and just watch at 8000...if it sticks (before China
opens it could do) close out but be ready to recomit later.
This could be explosive (and could also be a complete damp
squib) . But you'll never win unless you're prepared to play.
Good Luck to all those that do.
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Still Positive at Higher LevelsBitcoin: Update next buy Points Clean Chart
Summary: Overall dull right now but with a positive undertone,
still, at these levels. We look to buy from lower, closer to 7531
if touched or, if very lucky, on any sharp fast test of the lower
parallel which would also be viewed as an excellent buying
opportunity, should we be lucky enough to see it later in
China/London on Monday. Unlikely, but it's Bitcoin.
If unsuccesful from lower levels the next buy point will come
on a break above that upper parallel with stops under 7700.
Technicals Evolving - Still Positive at higher levels
Forever changing shape as it evolves, Bitcoin just can't attract enough buying power on a quiet weeknd to break above a
newly forming dynamic falling from the highs, which now forms a perfect parallel with its lower counterpart, still
picking out the lows perfectly. Finally, this large set of parallels feels perfect, unforced, more likely to be trustworthy.
Having raised the stop on the long from 7660 to 7700 in effort to get out with just 30 loss if 7717 pivot gave way
overnight...was stopped out - and with an overnight low at 7672 had I not bothered to move the stop up, would still be
long. So annoying sometimes, but still believe it was the right idea, but wrong damn level. Should have left it alone. Such
are pitfalls of stops. But believe that with BItcoin, more than any other instrument or speculation, stops are essential. But
sometimes one pays a price for being overcautious. Deserved it.
So now, in super-light volumes Bitcoin is struggling to attract buyers and yesterday's pivot line at 7717, having been rapidly
regained by the bulls early in London this morning, is now under pressure once more ...we can see that price has danced
around this line all weekend (the only accurate part of forecast for a frustrating weekend really, so far) and in
such a tight range that it's not even of use to day-traders now.
Strange how it's gone to sleep right on the dividing line at 7717 for last 30 minutes now. The freezer lid indeed. So if
it breaks below here it's likely to drift lower still, to 7630 and potentially back to 7531 again...so am not buying here, as
yesterday, because there is still that risk of further lazy declines from here. So far it's still in a large corrective
pattern, unwinding last week's surge from lows at 5645 to new high at 8000 by moving lazily sideways in the range that
occupies the same space that was rejected so strongly the last time Bitcoin made it to these heights. That's positive, so far.
But don't need to buy here, even if 7717 does prove to be significant again today. It could still get pushed lower - it just
doesn't feel as stong here today...so there are 3 possible buy points now: either from lower down if 7700 fails,
potentially close to 7531 or off the lower large parallel should there be a fast, sharp decline to test it at any point over the
next 24 hours or so. Unlikley right now, but it could potentially happen if we are very lucky. And if not, the 3rd
chance presesnts itself from higher up, needing a successful break above the larger parallel at any point later today or
tomorrow (more likely but it's Bitcoin, anything can happen.Repeat)
Stops will need to stay under 7700, looking for a move back up to 7980-8000 range, with lesser resistance at 7856 being a
likely spot for day trading bulls to take first profits. Looking to close out at 7980 if tested and then stand ready to go long
once more if 8020 is broken with stop under 7900. Any such break should attract momemtum players and swing traders as
well as day traders. It should be worth following, especially if we see or sense volume picking up too.
Downside looks limited at his point, particularly if 7717 continues to hold for the bulls. There is still a fair chance we
might see another test of 7531 afrter China opens later. If so look to buy here with stop 50 points lower.
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Now that's a green candle - it needs sustaining Bitcoin: BTCUSD Lots of opportunities to get long again off the blue support at 7426 and a few points higher before Bitcoin blasted higher,
doing just what we needed it to without messing with heads at 7570. Now that's a green candle...worried we might see another blow off
top as the great whale surfaces and blows, like last time, leaving a great spout from here to 7890. so it's
Ok to take profits at the old highs and just under at 7850-7890 if they get tested today. We are running some serious profits
again so far and they need protecting, either running the stop close to the last minor low or at lowest 7550. And then, if we
see 7900 broken we can go long again with stops just under 7850.
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Now flat after hitting 7538Bitcoin: BTCUSD High at 7538 (2 points short of target)
Closed out for now...looking to get long again from lower now.
Stopped out pretty much as expected last night at 7190, making 240
points on first position, 100 on second and nothing on the 3rd
entry. OK but not great, with spreads, yesterday was one
where we ended up working for the broker...selling at 7190
but buying again at 7134 as it dipped back into the buy zone
shown on the chart. Was hoping to buy more in the 7134-7090
range but price only came as low as 7120, so ended up buying
more as Bitcoin exited the second continuation pattern of the
day at 7196...and with spreads that meant the sell at 7190
was pretty much a waste of time and money.
These are the perils of trading a perfect vehicle in an
imperfect world.
Anyway, long again looking for 7540 where we'll take profits if
touched. This run has been kinder than yesterday's, so far and
we're running another 260 points of profit so far today. If we
see 7540 look to close out and re-enter long from lower down.
There is a chance that Bitcoin can smash straight through
7570...so not looking to short. If 7600 is broken on updside
and it then comes back to 7570- 7500 and finds support we
can look to go long again with stop below 7470.
Bitcoin:BTCUST Bulls have won out - retest of 7730 on wayBitcoin: BTCUSD Bulls have won the battle for high ground above 6950. look to Buy dips from here to the highs
Well we should have booked about 200-240 profit on long from 7000 as Bitcoin spent 19 minutes dancing either side the
little dynamic, a mercifully short battle before bulls won the day, triggering the long with stops 50 under the line which
were never hit this time. So sorry for raising that stop too high on the original longs from pivot area at 6450-6470 in a
vain effort to protect newer readers from whipsaw risk - just got too cautious, too overprotective. My bad, not chart's.
And to add insult to injury, now we've been stopped out of what was, technically, a sensible trade: the short from 6950,
losing 50 points before spreads. The fact that bulls have won 6950 is very significant.
Bitcoin was expected to encounter a real problem at 6940-6950 and start to come off by at least 250 points which
we were looking to bag...it did come off from 6963, but only 150 points or so before rallying again.
The fact is that 6950 should have stopped Bitcoin dead in its tracks...but people who weren't interested in buying at 5750
are now interested at 6950 - once 6950 is taken back by the bulls the chart will be telling us that the Bulls have won the
war - not just a big battle, but the war to occupy the high ground above 6950 again. That will mean there's no point in
trying to fight this any longer. At that point, if we see it develop, we have to switch back to buying dips - that's a
pennant formation that's been hammered out since Sunday with an upside target at 7730 - it's likely to push higher still in
near term to 7077, and potentially to the next line of resistance at 7137 but unless day-trading we need to look to
buy on the next decline...this is now 'hot' again after being so 'cold' just a few days ago. Such is Bitcoin. Do not expect it to
come back far when the next decline sets in, to 6990-6940 range at absolute lowest now and more likely only to touch
the lower parallel of the impulse wave shown on the chart - 7077 could be as low as it goes, so strong is this wave,
so look to get long and manage your risk.
Long story short, this has 600-700 points upside to 7730 minimum and about 250 max likely downside to 6950 - so you
can go long here and not wait around but the stop has to be under 6860 for now to stay away from whipsaw, or wait and
hope we get a decine to the lower parallel or even a retest of 6950. That would be the ideal, but we are not likely to see it.
Traders choice, down to appetetite for risk. A test of the lower parallel is probably all we are going to see and maybe
not even that...even now it's close to a 3 to 1 return on risk , even with stops under 6950. Trader's choice, dependent on
risk profile. Be lucky. And if day trading keep buying dips back up to the highs/minimum upside target at 7730.
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Still stuck in neutral but not for long UPSIDE from here Stuck in Neutral Still - Shock...since when was Bitcoin neutral?
Bitcoin is doing its best to defy the bears and is technically sound above 6440. It's still a buy
on dips to the pivot at 6470-6440 with stops just under 6420 for small loss if wrong But trade is
slow and whilst below that old dynamic support at 6585 now it's still twitchy and vulnerable -
but once 6640 is broken on the upside it will likely push on to 6730-6750 quickly and then come
off again as day traders unload at 6730-6750...if it does this look to see if it starts to find support
around 6580, off that old medium term dynamic and if so look to buy with stop no more than 50
points under the line - so long as the pivot at 6470-7440 holds, there's still a chance that Bitcoin
is building up momentum for a surge higher - an AbC pattern with an upside target at 7450-7550.
But that only stands a chance if the near term double top at 6750 can be beaten, to set the move
off and then major resistance potential at 6943 is broken on the upside. We can easily beat the
double top but 6940-6950 is likely to prove difficult to break, almost certainly on the first attempt.
To see that happen though, Bitcoin has to break above 6750 and then hold on the next retest as
there's more resistance just above at 6810 - so if it breaks above the double top at 6750 and goes
to 6810 , comes off and then holds up at 6750 it can be bought with stops about 50 points lower.
Another way to play the breakout, much more straight-forward, is simply to follow a break above
the little dynamic resistance line running down from the recent high if we see it. The stop can be
quite tight under the line, targeting 6940 where look to close out (and short with stop 50 points
above if a day trader)
DOWNSIDE from here
Looking to short if 6440 gives way for fast test of 6312 , closing out there as it could well bounce
back up to 6440-6475, giving a second chance to short here with stops above 6500 for small loss
if wrong. Then if 6300 gives way at any point we can turn more aggressive, with swing traders
joining the rout, looking for another, bigger decline back to 5747 most likely - a good trade if we
see price action develop as above.
Bitcoin: BTCUST Good retest of old support - Next trade set-up Bitcoin: BTCUSD
See how the successful retest of the bigger controlling (until
midnight est) parallel took 2 hours to occur at the 6150 level?
This retest of the old dynamic support we were looking for
around 6515-6500 range has taken an hour to play out as price
danced either side of the line but with a low at 6503. It's
always a tense period watching, waiting, trying not to get
faked into the wrong trade by getting too twitchy. The worst
part of any trade, but needs must. It means any stops for
longs can be placed at about6490 and just under for small loss
if it fails from here. But it shouldn't do now. Stay long until
the 6930 is tested and close out. Then look to short from 6940
with stop 50 points above.
Be Lucky and if you can't, use stops.
Bitcoin BTCUSD Next support approaches for day-tradersBitcoin Update
Although it's now testing the next line of support at 6312, unless a day trader would advise to stay short lloking for a
test of the lower parallel. Some day traders will close out here looking for a decent counter rally back to the last
support/new resistance at 6425, though the old trend line, now at 6390 may now prove so toxic that any rally is stopped
dead here, on the underside of the old dynamic medium term support line. For others, stay short for test of the lower
parallel...if we don't see a rally from 6312 it should happen around 1pm est, but if we get a rally first that will be delayed some.
If it does rally from 6312, others looking to short this who have missed part of the ride can look to get on at 6420 if seen.
BITCOIN: BTCUSD ON the brink of the next abyssBITCOIN: BTCUSD On the Brink Right Now
Testing the first support 6425 range. Day-traders will be closing out again here, looking to see if selling power wanes
...don't think so but it could create a little counter rally from 6425-6400 , with 6400 being the exact point where the
medium term trend line stands right now - and if it does, it should get stopped by the parallels above it which look to be
controlling this descent now (couldn't get a grip on those yesterday, because the all-time high was screwing up any
symmetry in the chart)...it's breaking now right on to the long term trend line at 6400 now...it's really thinking about it
here, looking down and trying to hold up...but no one's buying are they? It's just selling has stopped here, understandably -
itFailure here will seal the next stage in Bitcoin's descent - It should fall away to 6312 at least, make a feeble bounce
maybe and then fall away further to at least 6165, and then 5997...last gasp support here at 6000 so it should try to pull
back from the precipice for a while, and make some kind of getaway here...if this then fails Bitcoin will start to fall in a
near straight line back to 5121-4973 range.
It's extremely weak whilst trapped within the parallels that
are bossing this wave now. Any return to the upper parallel should be viewed as another selling opportunity for now until
downside targets are achieved. More as this move develops.