BTC Wyckoff accumulation phase before new Rally ! BTCUSD BTCUSDTHi dear community and the best followers. I hope you are fine. I appreciate your support, likes and comments.
Today I'm looking at 3d chart of BTCUSD. As you know since 18 June 2022, I have been posting BTC bottomed and it is preparing for new Rally /new ATH/ before new recession and Fed Pivot starts. I expect new ATH by Q2-Q3 in 2023. If you check my other analyses bellow related ideas, you will understand why I think so.
So as you see, I have drown BTC Wyckoff accumulation phase and think when BTC broke 28-30K one of the major support zone/Preliminary support/and dumped to 17.5K in June 2022, that was selling climax with huge increasing volume + smart money huge buy, that point I called the real bottom of BTC bear market based on my analyses and history data/you can check them bellow/. Then BTC did automatic rally, and dropped again to the same support zone making secondary test. The recent dump which I called fake breakdown/bear trap/ with double bottom+ RSI bullish divergence is a spring of Wyckoff phase like 2021 November top, which was a fake breakout/ bull trap/ with double top+ RSI bear divergence. At the moment I expect test of 16-16.5K then pump to 18.5-19K then 21-22K > 24-26K > 28-30K but of course with pullbacks making HH and HL.
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Btcwykoff
Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic on BTCHi guys,
You can spot a clear schematic of accumulation behaviour on BTC market. you can find references about the very similar schematic on famous websites. BUT
BUT
there are signs of weakness in this pattern formed in BTC. first of all (but not least important), on ST points (Secondary test points), we have two exceptions:
1. We have more than 2 ST points, which is not a very bad sign by itself, but the problem is that we prefer to see low selling pressure or volume (or at least low price tails below recent supports (which neither are met in this pattern)
2. third ST point is totally unrelated to a swing. its a drop. with high momentum but with most of the volume at the very bottom. so we can't relate to that either.
there is an exception in SC too. we'd prefer to see a more clear SC. but Selling climax has built a zone instead of a valid clear support. that's why in higher timeframes we can't really spot a major low (to consider in our drawings)
Feel free to ask questions in Comment section below!
My BTC PredictionHello, I think although simplistic, many people are again afraid of a massive H&S structure similar to the May crash, when this looks preposterously easy again to predict as a Wyckoff Accumulation.
On chain indicators are still strong, long term holders are still net accumulating, with a small November 2020 style profit taking.
We still need to see a redistribution of BTC from long term holders to short term holders to create a parabolic blow off top.
Exchange liquidity is almost at an all time low, and I also think people are neglecting the Q1 news blitz, with Square, Amazon, and more projecting to release BTC consumer products. Secondarily, with the Taproot upgrade, we didn’t see much movement from the Segwit upgrade which was a much smaller update and took about 3 months to show in price- which would point to January 2022 as a recovery.
I also think the BTC/M1 is an amazing pair to be watching right now, in that pair, there has been no ATH achieved above 2017, which means BTC hasn’t even outrun inflation yet.
What consumers aren’t realizing yet is, Bitcoin is severely undervalued in its USD pair. While I don’t see this price occurring, if we were to take a 2013-2017 ATH gain against M1 in 2017 - 2022, we’d be looking at a $700,000 Bitcoin.
I don’t ask myself if $100,000 is possible, I’m personally expecting a top in the ball park of $300,000.
Bitcoin To 10,000If I think about what would cause the most pain for retail traders the logical move would be to take out 10k. This would create a ton of fomo & lead to retail claiming this as the bull run to new ATH, would complete the wyckoff cycle, & complete Aprils fractal. Tons of traders would get trapped and then price tanks.