THIS IS A GREAT SETUP FOR A BIG MOVE!British American Tobacco (JSE:BTI), is one of the top 5 tobacco companies in the world, owning popular tobacco brands like Palmal, Kent, Lucky Strike Dunhill, Kool, Benson and Hedges, Peter Stuyvesant and Rothmans. With its headquarters in London, BAT has global operations in more than 180 countries. BAT shares are for sale on the London Stock Exchange and have a secondary listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE).
BTI has partnerships with more than 90,000 farmers and factories in 42 countries. 9 of the group’s 44 factories are located in Africa and BAT has had a presence in South Africa for more than 100 years. Established in 1976, the factory in Heidelberg is the eighth largest BAT factory in the world, producing more than 27 billion cigarettes a year for local and export markets.
The world has become far more health conscious than before and this is evident in the share price movements over the last 2.5 years. E-cigarettes are the key focus of the large tobacco manufacturers but don't seem to be selling quite as well as they would have hoped. I am sure that we can expect innovation from the large manufacturers on the heated tobacco topic but this will definitely not be without it's challenges.
It seems the big tobacco companies are strategising around health research that it’s smoke, not nicotine, that causes cancer and associated lung diseases. Part of the strategy will be to develop smaller versions of the Glo Stick with higher levels of nicotine in order to boost sales.
Generally speaking, we think that individual smokers will consume fewer cigarettes each and smaller percentages of populations will smoke. While cigarette sales in developed countries continue to decline year-on-year, sustained volume growth is widely predicted in emerging markets, driven by population growth and increasing disposable income. As a result, the overall value of the tobacco market continues to increase.
This value is expected to continue growing in the future. The resilience of the industry is underlined by the continued year-on-year net revenue growth, at constant rates of exchange.
Let's look at the technicals.
Weekly (pink): The steady share price increase on the left of the chart came to quite a sudden stop around June 2016. I am now looking at the corrective structure formation which has unfolded since that point. According to my analysis, we are in wave 3 of the correction. We can see the effort the share price has made to reverse from earlier this year and we may possibly see some upside from this point. It is also a possibility that there will be further decline and wave 3 could lengthen. In the longer term I am expecting price to move back to the top of the weekly structure.
Daily (blue): A look at the daily time frame shows a likely structure setup which ties in with the larger perspective as well. This is very likely the start of wave 3 on the daily structure which would also indicate the start of wave 4 on the weekly structure. Both setups have the potential to yield a large move to the upside.
H4 (green): As you can see on the chart above, price has just broken out of the H4 correction. This indicates that it is unlikely to have another wave to the downside and that the move to the upside has begun. The chart above illustrates the entry and exit levels that I will be looking at for this trade. Enjoy the freebie!
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Happy Trading!
Linton
