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Oil - Bulls Will Be Totally AnnihilatedIn early September, we made what turned out to be a pretty accurate call on crude, predicting that $95~ was the target. CL WTI Crude Oil - Getting In Sync With The Market Makers In July, after analysis, I predicted that the target for crude in the intermediate term is actually a 3-or-4 handle, based on reading the tea leaves of yearly bars. Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins There's all sorts of fundamental reasons, one will say, that mean there's NO WAY oil should go down, so much! It should go up, because reasons! And I think that is true. I think we're going to see $150 or $200 crude in a future that isn't very far away. But before that happens, since oil has failed to continue upward momentum, the entire previous range from the Russia-Ukraine War has been traded, and the year has mostly been flat-red, it seems to me pretty obvious that the MMs are going to be MMs and go dumpster some long-term longs. Which means we have a target of $56 before the end of 2024, based on monthly candles: It's only that I think $56 won't be "the bottom," they'll drive it lowerer for longerer and make energy bulls and equities bears hate their life, before the real fun starts, because that's how big accumulation happens. Super high prices is almost always preceded by super deep selling. Producers get net short. Before they get net short, it takes some time to get net long, and even though you may not see that in Commitment of Traders, the big oil companies have entire floors of their headquarter buildings devoted to trading, a lot like a bank. The Black Swan of Black Swans, though, that can spoil everyone's fun plans, is the Chinese Communist Party and Xi Jinping's tenuous grip on power and reality. I've said in virtually every post that the CCP is going to fall in our lifetimes. It can fall in one of two ways: 1. Xi Jinping goes Gorbachev and throws the evil Party away, saving China and himself 2. Xi Jinping is strung up as the head of the evil Party, goes down to Hell with the CCP, and something else replaces it What's at stake for Xi is not only the CCP's boundless crimes against humanity and the ruination of China's 5,000 year Heavenly Dynasties, but the eternal sin of the 24-year organ harvesting and genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million students. Although that persecution was started in 1999 by former Chairman Jiang Zemin, who died, because Xi is the leader of the CCP, he'll inherit the crime and face the same Sepulcher, unless he can throw the regime away like the man he ought to be. When the CCP finally falls, whether it's because Wuhan Pneumonia dropped more than former Premier Li Keqiang, or because Xi dumpsters the Jiang Faction and the International Q Cult that's made itself a particle of the Red Dragon, everything is going to be bigly gap down on a Monday morning. Stuff like the price of oil may seriously moon, however, because the world society's electricity, heat, and transportation relies entirely on fossil fuels. And so all dumps on commodities may sharply truncate and reverse seemingly without cause, all equities rallies may sharply truncate and reverse seemingly without cause, and so the risk is enormous. Trading in these markets in the next 6 months is going to be like playing with fire or gambling your fingers near a really sharp knife. Never forget this point: a knife just cuts. A knife doesn't care who or what it cuts. It just cuts. If you don't want to lose your fingers and your hands, don't put your fingers and your hands under a knife. Once they're gone, there are no miracles to bring them back. The way it's looked at up high is that, in reality, you made the choice to put your hands under the knife, and so when it cuts what should be cut, it cut what should be cut, and that's your own problem caused by your own pursuits. Be careful.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by LordWrymouth
1
XOM Exxon - Spring Coiled Or Hanging By A Thread?Every time the price of oil goes up, there's a group of bulls that are sure they're catching the train to $150. I mean, I do think oil will go to $150, and there has to be a bottom that comes first, so there's that. But with fossil fuels and energy producers it seems the pumps are rare, the consolidations are frequent, and the dumps are more common. In two recent calls, I suggest that oil may actually be on its way to a 3-handle Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins This particular thesis is at something of its inflection point. All the way to $85 would not be surprising, nor would it invalidate the short trade. But here we chop in the $80s. For Natgas, in a recent call, I suggest that price needs to raid $1.6~ before the rocket mission to $10 can commence NatGas - No Moon Until Doom Natty has rallied fairly meaningfully in the last few days, and it may even actually finally punch out $3. But if it can't continue from there, the idea may still be correct. A big tell that something isn't right in the bull thesis for Exxon is that after the highs were swept in April at $119~, everyone long over $111 has remained trapped ever since, with price not following oil's recent $20 rally. Now for Exxon, something that's really notable is that the CEO recently bought himself some 650,000 shares for $69 million. This makes many people believe that new highs simply have to be coming. When we look at monthly candles, we can see we're "flagging" above the old All Time High, there's no indication that it's a reversal, and yet, for three months, there is no reversal. On the weekly, last week's price action gave the appearance that it's finally time, but it may have just been a stop sweep over the range high. It's notable oil is pumping, but Exxon is not, despite its stellar earnings report. An important thing to note about Exxon is next dividends ex-date is August 15 and the payout is 91 cents a share. The CEO will pick up some $591,000+ in cold cash mitigating his position. It's also worth noting that when it comes to insider buys, they aren't necessarily indicative that price is going to go up before it goes down. The man may have understood he could make more than the 5% he can earn in the money market by buying Exxon and loaning the shares out to short sellers, combined with dividend payments, over the next year, for example. The most rational place for Exxon to correct to, if it were to correct, is the $68 level. There are a lot of geopolitical risks right now with China, the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping, and the CCP and the Jiang Zemin faction's 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Gong. This is really the biggest piece of the puzzle that you need to educate yourself with, but establishment media doesn't talk about it. All of this directly impacts the oil market. And the War in Ukraine impacts the oil market, because if the War is called off then Russian oil is going to flow worldwide again and amount to a big time supply increase. Things can change any time.
NYSE:XOM
by LordWrymouth
Commodities: Coal Recovery Cycle Soon: Peabody Energy BTU ARCHColumn: How a bankruptcy filing shielded a big coal company from California’s climate-change lawsuits Peabody Energy, the nation’s largest private-sector coal company, joined several of its fellow coal producers in bankruptcy in 2016. Its main goal was to wriggle out from under more than $10 billion in debt it had incurred to expand, even as demand was sharply falling. But its bankruptcy filing has provided a collateral benefit: Peabody has been ruled immune from a lawsuit brought by three California jurisdictions blaming it and dozens of other fossil fuel companies for a sea level rise related to climate change. The ruling came last month from U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Barry S. Schermer of St. Louis, who presided over Peabody’s bankruptcy. On Monday, the California plaintiffs — the counties of Marin and San Mateo and the city of Imperial Beach — filed a notice that they’ll appeal Schermer’s ruling to federal court.
NYSE:BTULong
by noam_chom
1
BTU Long • The optimum strategy for BTU: Momentum 160 • Start price: 28,90 • Current stop-loss: 26,785 • Trailing stop-loss: ATR(14) x 1,4 • Projected annual return: +132% • Take profit: not installed • Average trades per month: 1 • Average profit per 1 trade: +6,74% • Strategy win-rate: 47% • Technical analysis applicability for 3325 technical strategies: 73,1% • Days for backtesting: 1125 • Timeframe for testing: 1 day • Long 55% • Short 41% • Neutral 4% Stable long-term profit for FOREX, CRYPTO, STOCKS based on math backtesting algorithm. Instant optimization and analysis of 3325 technical strategies
NYSE:BTULong
by Trading_investing_2021
1
Coal = Gold 3.0 - The New Paradigm Breakoutor this may be a 2B double top extension. (see Bitcoin Nov-2021 2B top, or see Gold-ounce double top from Ukraine tensions in Spring 2022) I think that the coal new paradigm pump is a sell the news event, energy supply tensions are easing and in the USA the domestic stress of a Rail Workers Union strike will be resolved within weeks. Strong Supply flows will dampen the heightened speculation about Coal companies going up forever (with their notably favorable P/E and P/FCF rates) "Years ago, I recognized my kinship with all living things, and I made up my mind that I was not one bit better than the meanest on earth... While there is a lower class, I am in it, while there is a criminal element, I am of it, and while there is a soul in prison, I am not free..."
NYSE:CEIX
by noam_chom
US Stock In Play: $BTU (Peabody Energy Corporation)$BTU broke out of its 15 months long inverse head and shoulder chart pattern, surging +60.75% over the past 6 trading session. $BTU is currently closed at $8.59, a 52 weeks high price. At the current juncture, $BTU is trading above its 200DMA for the first time in 30 months; a significant long term trend reversal behavioral price action, accompanied with incremental 3 month average trading volume exceeding beyond 100% over the past 6 months. The next resistance to watch for $BTU is at $9.90, a price level that is 2 days away of its implied volatility. $BTU engages in coal mining business in the United States, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, China, India, Vietnam, South Korea, and internationally. The company operates through Seaborne Thermal Mining, Seaborne Metallurgical Mining, Powder River Basin Mining, and Other U.S. Thermal Mining segments.
NYSE:BTULong
by jfsrevg