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Bubble

A look at a century of logarithmic Dow - it's not a bubble!I keep hearing that stocks are in a bubble, but that just isn't true. People always look at charts in a linear mode, but this is not how math works. To get accurate prices and movement we MUST look at a logarithmic chart. When you do this for the Dow Jones average for the last century you clearly see we perhaps are a little inflated, but nowhere near Bubble territory. You want a Bubble? 1929 - now *that* was wildly over valued (with a subsequent epic crash). Now if in 2023 the Dow is above 45k? Then you can get back to me about how we might be in an asset Bubble. Until then I expect the trend to continue bullish.
TVC:DJILong
by americanpegasus
3
Unbridled Optimism, Irrational exuberance, wild speculationThe NQ is stuck. how many times can you hit new ATH price in 2 days? 5? 10? 20? I watched Sam Zell, Billionaire Investor on CNBC this morning saying what myself and a few others say in the room. While Retail traders use their stimulus checks gambling in the market, like the cocaine monkey hitting the cocaine button and ignoring food and water till they drop dead this market NEEDS to correct. Is buying the dips a real speculation trade when we drop from 13,686 to 13,683? Nobody knows what will happen in any given moment in the Markets, and yet in the room 90% of Traders are predicting what will happen in complex patterns, for example, "we will dip to NN,NNN and they go up". how could they possibly know in this market? We are in a crazy, irrational bubble.. Having said that I do think there is a good chance we get a "Turnaround Tuesday", we defiantly need to get an UP and down cycle going again... Hey it may not happen, there is a 50/50% chance it will. It's just what makes sense.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by dryanhawley
6
LILA long [Target: $20]1) Given the current market dynamics, now may be a great time to buy "value" stocks. For example, I also really like $MO (roughly 8% dividend yield right now and a beautiful ascending triangle reversal pattern on the weekly chart). 2) I like Elon Musk but the company is grossly over-valued, and his $1.5 billion investment in bitcoin has a bubble like sentiment. Not that this provides any direct information about LILA's stock price, but my intuition is that it signals that the shift from growth to value in near. 3) The stocks with the highest daily volumes right now are meme stocks and penny stocks that have negative EPS and are in horrible financial situations. 4) The S&P500 growth stocks have significantly out-performed the S&P500 value stocks, but I believe this trend will start to shift in the near future. 5) Recent 13F filings show that value minded investors also find LILA an attractive buy right now. **Not stock advice, do your own research**
NASDAQ:LILALong
by jfs2152
4
The trend is your friend, that's the case for BitcoinLooks like BITMEX:XBT will hold the uptrend. Is forming a classic symmetrical triangle, while holding above the 20 day MA and the selling volume is been decreasing. This are all good signs for a healthy uptrend. So, now I think the best thing to do is to wait an upward breakout to buy. As I trade for stocks in Folionet, I'll be buying OTC:GBTC . According to various investigations I've read, Bitcoin behaves like a fractal bubble and it looks like still has a way to still go up. Ark Invest is suggesting that Bitcoin could go for $75,000. That's a pretty good buying signal for me.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by dpuleo19
Mars next stop for the Indians?If you thought the DJI was overvalued, have a look at the India50. This thing has outperformed loads of other stock indices, even rivalling the Brazilian Bovespa. They've certainly passed the moon. Could the next stop be Mars? Well I think a significant correction is well overdue. Of course, I don't know when that might happen. The show could start with a 5 to 15 min trend south. So, I'm all eyes on this one. The recent pump in the last 2 days was mainly about the DJI pump. Oh yes, markets around the world draw confidence from the DJI, as misplaced as that is. So now we have one air market filling up on air from another market. That's looking for trouble. Attacking this for a short means I'm setting up alerts for 5 to 15 min trends south. It's already heavily bullish. I don't like going long at the top of markets. Strange things tend to happen there. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Editors' picks
I
by Captain_Walker
9
Tesla: the bubble is about to burstYesterday, 27 January 2021, after market, Tesla reported. The reaction to the report gave the final sell signal; the sign that the bubble is about to burst. If we look at the chart since 2018 we see a sideways movement up until the beginning of 2020. Since 2020 Tesla is moving in a steep uptrend. Since the beginning of 2020 the price has roughly ten folded. In my opinion a big bubble has formed since 2020. To quote CNBC: "Tesla’s market capitalization has increased by more than $500 billion in 2020, and the company is now worth about as much as that of the nine largest car companies globally, despite selling a small fraction of the volume of cars that they do." If we look at the indicators we see that since the beginning of 2020 a divergence with RSI and Di + is forming. Since November 2020 Tesla is up trending within the uptrend. This trend within the trend broke yesterday. Today we gapped down out of this uptrend. MACD also gave a sell signal.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Optiveren
4
This time is...⏰ Market exuberance:New secular bear market? 🐻Hi mates, stock market is probably near top and next huge market meltdown is next door . Why i think so?I want to share with you some pieces of my analysis: 📌S&P500 vs. Utilities sector ratio It seems it could forecast short and mid term corrections in stock market but it looks like its good indicator of broader market cycles as secular bear/bull markets. A secular market trend is a long-term trend that lasts 5 to 25 years and consists of a series of primary trends. A secular bear market consists of smaller bull markets and larger bear markets; a secular bull market consists of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets. 📌Yield spread Inverted yield curve is leading warning indicator of future recession. The basic principle is whe yield spred inverted (was in negative territory) you can expect recession in next 12-months.It happened when Dot.com bubble bursted in 2000-2001 and so in Great financial crisis in 2007- 2008 as you see in chart. 📌Put/Call ratio The put-call ratio is calculated by dividing the number of traded put options by the number of traded call options. You can use it as contrarian indicator to determine how much Bullish/Bearish the market is. An extremely low ratio means the market is extremely bullish. A contrarian might conclude that the market is too bullish and is due for a pullback. Contrary extremely high ratio means the market is extremely bearish. In my analysis i using 20day MA of Put/Call Ratio an looking up for divergencies. 📌VIX divergence of 20 MA 📌Nasdaq vs Russlel 2000 Just so similar pattern on monhly chart of Nasdaq and Russell 2000 📌Other factors Margin debt acceleration is another sign of speculative frenzy in the market Margin debt is not a technical indicator for trading markets. What margin debt represents is the amount of speculation that is occurring in the market. In other words, margin debt is the ‘gasoline,’ which drives markets higher as the leverage provides for the additional purchasing power of assets. However, ‘leverage’ also works in reverse as it supplies the accelerant for more significant declines as lenders ‘force’ the sale of assets to cover credit lines without regard to the borrower’s position. Here is chart Total market cap of negative earnings of IT firms near $1 trillion its more than 2000 -2001 Dot.com bubble. Source:KailashConcepts If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow. Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together.
AMEX:XLUShort
by Tomasgei
6
NIFTY COMMENTARY by Kiran WEEK 21, JERK in BULL rally.Dear Friends, If you following me you will realize that I am updating every move in nifty with pin point accuracy. Last week itself I called for JERK is coming in next two weeks. It is on the way. It is also happening infront of your eyes. This week I will go with two options. BOTH 1 and 4. Nxt week we will get both buying opportunity and selling opportunity. Get ready for that. Your humble trader KIRAN If you liked my analysis, just give me thumbs up or comment, it will boost me to analyze more stocks. follow my profile for new trading ideas (kiransunku2016) --------------------------------------------------------------------- The five conditions I watch regularly are. 1. BUYing opportunity 2. BUY hold 3.Wait for trend confirmation 4. SELLing opportunity 5. SELL hold. --------------------------------------------------------------------
NSE:NIFTY
by KiranSunku2016
3