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Is Bitcoin A Bubble? If So, When Will The Bitcoin Bubble Burst?Hello everyone, Ever since the early days of Bitcoin, skeptics have always asked – is Bitcoin a bubble? Is it just another inflated and overhyped trend? The concept of the “Bitcoin bubble” has intrigued people for many years – there have been a lot of calls and claims that the “Bitcoin bubble burst” happened on different occasions throughout time – but the cryptocurrency is still alive and well. What Does Bubble Mean? So we have the question – is Bitcoin a bubble? But what does the expression “Bitcoin bubble” actually mean? In financial terms, a “bubble” is a state where an asset stays stale for the longest time, then explodes and its price skyrockets through the roof. The “burst” that was referenced happens when this asset’s price drops down as quickly as it rose up. Predictions of a collapse of a speculative bubble in cryptocurrencies have been made by numerous experts in economics and financial markets. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been identified as speculative bubbles by several laureates of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, central bankers, and investors. I would love to hear your arguments and opinion. Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Please hit like and leave comment below with answer. Is Bitcoin a bubble ? One thing seems almost certain for me. If Bitcoin is a bubble, it hasn’t burst yet. ChaChain ----------------------- KEYWORDS trading, bitcoin , bitcointrading, profitable trading, profittrading, profit trading, secret, divergence, bull divergence, bear divergence, divergencetrading, divergence trading, trading strategy, how to trade bitcoin , bitcoin trades, bitcoin trading, make profit, take profit, trading strategy, trading technique, successful, successful trader, successful technique, successful strategy, successful secret, how to trade, trend analysis, technical analysis , indicators, rsi , relative strenght index, let it rain, successful life, easy strategy, easy trading, easy technique, make money, crypto investing, investing, crypto, cryptocurrency, cryptocurrencies, mentoring, money, chartart, beyond technical analysis, ----------------------- Disclaimer: I´m not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature and therefore I´m unqualified to give investment recommendations. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing. This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Anoinvest
2
Wile. E. Coyote and the Intergenerational SPX ShortSPX/GDP is at a double top with its March 2000 peak. The NASDAQ 100 meanwhile, for which that 2000 chart has been the go-to example for "what a bubble looks like and how an 85% drop is a typical bubble retracement target” for the past 20 years, is just 15% away from reaching that same threshold. There's a large bear graveyard built over the past decade that includes some very smart people. That said, we are in a literal new paradigm if SPX climbs meaningfully higher from here, where the market will have decided that US equities have a higher relative value to the economy than since the bubble of the 1920s (the FRED GDP dataset on TradingView doesn't go back that far, but by looking it up elsewhere some back of the envelope math says that the market then was around 2x as high relative to GDP, and that was in a world where barely regulated stock market "investing" on 10x leverage was a national fad). I acknowledge here a few counterpoints - transaction costs have been competed down to near zero, interest rates are historically low, and US tax structures have been shaped over the past few decades to massively benefit stock investing. The argument can therefore be made that perhaps equities really are worth more relative to the economy than in past scenarios because some of the factors in the denominator have meaningfully changed. This is basically the Warren Buffet argument of the past few years that equities are attractive so long as interest rates are this low. ...but this is a market that is basically pricing zero risk that anything bad ever happens to the US economy. Like…really? It’s been true so far, yes, but we’re getting asked increasingly to suspend our disbelief to justify this. For the bull case to be correct, we have to accept that we are in a “new paradigm” where the following things are true: - At 10 years and counting, the longest continuous economic expansion in US history still has at least several years left. This is something that hasn’t ever happened in nearly 250 years of US history which includes all post-Industrial Revolution history and no major wars fought in the homeland since the 1860s to periodically destroy US infrastructure and set it back as was typical in Europe. - The Fed turning 180 degrees on monetary policy in 2019 is a good thing that should not possibly be read as a sign that there’s any underlying weakness in the US economy. -The repo market completely blowing up, and requiring emergency “not-QE” measures from the Fed on a scale that’s wiped out nearly all quantitative tightening in a fraction of the time… should definitely not be read as a sign that there’s any major risks out there below the surface. Nope. Never. The repo market blowing up is not something that normally ever happens, but it’s definitely completely meaningless that it did. -The Fed definitely for sure knows what it’s doing. Now, I don’t subscribe to Fed conspiracy theories and it’s legitimately an institution where America still actually hires real genius experts in the field rather than political flunkies for all the top positions. Still, the track record of central banks foreseeing the next crisis rather than trying to fight the previous battle echoes that of the TSA. -There is no chance that ETF passive investing has inflated a bubble by indiscriminately propping up dumb valuations of companies that would normally be culled. -The Fear and Greed index can casually make ATHs because actually everyone is directionally correct at the same time right now. -It doesn’t matter that a con artist is in the White House basically running government as an empty seat with a clown car of Republican C-listers in his administration because he’s too vain to appoint any of the competent people who said mean things about him in the primaries, resulting in the most corrupt administration since Gilded Age machine/patronage politics. So far, this has basically gotten us boilerplate Republican tax policy and an indiscriminate flamethrower to regulations, so it’s worked well for equities in the short term. The problem is that it’s also getting us stuff like bizarre trade policy and a dramatically increased chance of a black swan event. Of recent note is the risk of war and related instability given recent escalation with Iran. Frankly, the world has yet to see what an offensive cyberwar or things like systematic attacks against the power grid would do to a modern developed economy. - None of the parade of horribles coming in the 2020s matter. Seriously, it’s going to be a slog with a lot of chickens coming to roost and seemingly nobody’s talking about it. Student loan defaults are projected to reach 40% in the middle of the decade, which basically means the taxpayer will eat this in what has proven the worst, least direct, traumatic to an entire generation or two, and least efficient way to subsidize higher education imaginable. Trump’s tax cut was front-loaded and is structured to raise tax brackets faster than before due to changing the inflation metric used, with a giant expiration cliff hits in the middle of the decade. Somehow we’re going to deal with all this well after looting the top of the economy for a tax cut that overwhelmingly benefited those who were already getting the most out of the equities run. - There will be no consequences to the relative value of equities from hardening to the political left seen in largest generation in America, set to be the plurality generational voting block in 2020 and exist for a window as an outright majority by the end of the decade. Millennials were already the most liberal living generation in America before Trump. One of the most ominous charts I’ve seen recently is the spread of consumer confidence between younger and older Americans, which had for decades always shown younger Americans to be more confident/optimistic, but which has now violently reversed. The Trump era has awaken a sleeping giant. I think this market is going to turn the second something bad finally happens (the Wile E. Coyote moment) and the way that it catches participants off-guard will be that it cascades into a much faster and sharper drop than people expect. Live by the stock buyback, die by the reduced liquidity when people get scared and start moving towards the exits. If you'd like to learn more about the indicators used to produce the charts on the left, check out SharkCharts.live, which has descriptions and a playlist of several hours of my explanatory videos. I am an amateur and you shouldn't take anything I say as financial advice. I'm interested in any feedback. *Realizing that the TradingView audience is international, for those unfamiliar with the American pop culture references to "Wile E. Coyote" - he is an antagonist character from classic Looney Toons cartoons who among other tropes, frequently chases his target too far over cliffs, ends up walking out on the air for a few steps, and then only when the moment happens that he looks down and realizes he is over the cliff does he start falling to the ground.
SP:SPXShort
by acatwithcharts
5
Market melting up & endgame for S&P 500Yes the Fed isn't the only factor driving the markets up, however fundamentally the market should be going down. Interest rates have been a big factor to the market melt up but mostly due to the Fed pumping liquidity across all sectors, and there is more to come as there is no limit to how much they can print during a deflationary crisis as inflation is delayed (2-3 year delay). Printing currency has its benefits and drawbacks but to save the economy printing short term was the right thing to do, and yet a side effect of this is the re inflation of the equity bubble or even a inflation into a hyper bubble. The Endgame however is inflation of 10% + when the economy recovers and the liquidity finally shows up.
SP:SPX
by Chazza_208
The 10 Year QE Bubble - "To Infinity, and Beyond!"A simple look at more recent boom and bust periods of the S&P500 Thinking Out Loud Is the QE Bubble bursting before our eyes? Will we see an all time high before a huge collapse and more Stimulus/QE? Opinion Outlook seems bearish for the long-term. These market levels are not sustainable, and inorganic, we are in the last phase of the QE bubble before it goes pop. COVID19 Wave 2 seems guaranteed at this point... Economic recovery is not going to be a V... Positioning I'm continuing to add on more shorts at these levels and above, long-term, mostly through inverse ETFs. I will continue trading the market pops and drops, while adding on to my long-term shorts. *Fundamentals seem forgotten, but at the end of the day, they ALWAYS rule the markets... this Market is in Mania.
SShort
by jb_skis
2
"This Wall Street stuff is easy"Seing a lot of messages like this: "Just spent a day with a friend with zero investing experience. Says he is up 60% on airlines stocks with 50% of his net worth. Claims this Wall Street stuff is easy and he should just quit his good medical job to day trade.". You know what this signals. Looking at a specific example, Dave Portnoy runs a website and was on the news for making a coronavirus rant a few weeks ago. On January 29th, 2020 it was announced that Penn Gaming Inc. (PENN - Get Rating) had purchased a 36% stake in Barstool worth $163 million in cash and stock. He saw the big price fluctuations of PENN. Going from $26 to $39. By March 18th it hit a low of $3.75. So he started day trading in early April or late March. 2 months ago. "Quickly up 100k" or something like that. He's been advising people since he started lmao. Then in a few days he reaches +150k and commands people to take a knee and bow to the new king of day trading (this was back in April). He shorted a stock by misclicking and discovered what short selling was. He got rekt, raged, but later came back. He got invited to CNBC fast money. "I am the king of the stock market" "I am smarter than Warren Buffet" "The old man lost his fastball. Tell him to get off the tracks or he’ll get run over. I don’t want to hurt him." "Say it with me... Stocks only go up. Only losers take profits. This is so easy. All you do is buy and you're rich like Scrooge Mc Duck." June 5: "I’m being modest when I say I’m the world’s greatest day trader. My unlimited money has upgraded to infinity money." He's a 43 yo man that became a millionaire with this site he created. Proving you don't need to be very smart to make it. Who knows, with enough FED intervention an idiot like him can make it, but the country won't. Some people to him: "@stoolpresidente my trading strategy is buy after you lose money in hopes that you sell and the price goes back up. Worked on $SAVE , $BABA next . Please sell your BABAs around $195. 10% commish coming your way when I’m a millionaire." His answer: "Brilliant" Hard to think this is not a parody. The stock market will probably rally higher on positive hopes for the rebuilding of destroyed us cities. Very rational. This will age beautifully. Can't wait.
TVC:IXIC
by MrRenev
2
As agreement sets in, argument ensues.We are approaching agreement on the red .236 line of the fib channel. We are also reaching an agreement between the long time support and the .786 fib retracement level of the Covid decline. When either of these fail, we will see the nature of this market. Was may 14th the second bottom? Will or next argument be the yellow .382 of the fib channel as we approach the all time high? -OR- Will we dribble down the the long term support and fall through it to the bottom of the fib channel / the green .5 of the Covid retracement; Another pin to bust bubble bursts beneath us? It is notable that our nation was on a whole quite reckless with social distancing and protective measures while celebrating over memorial day weekend. We should expect a spectacular COVID spike within the next 10 days. That will be my measure to judge the seriousness of the epidemic and the end of bear market rally.
AMEX:SPY
by DHLawrence
THIS COULD BE THE 100X OF THE YEAR. SPX, NDX, VIX, USD, ANALYSISSPX has been ranging at the D 200 SMA today and depending on which way it breaks, I'd expect moves to start in a lot of other asset classes too NDX has been selling off all day, by contrast, and because so much market cap has gotten concentrated in the top 5 stocks, they account for ~45% of NDX and ~20% of SPX. So there's a lot of inherent correlation just from that. This is probably the best spot that exists on the chart right now for equities to finally roll over. The run over the past 2 months has been the sharpest rise in SPX history. Which is insane. P/E for SPX is right about at the 2000 peak. By other metrics, we're the most expensive since 1929. Regardless of measure else we're significantly more expensive than the Feb top. This move is widely attributed to a massive new interest in retail trading accounts since the crash, which is like textbook. It's certainly the same exact thing that happened in 2018 in crypto after the initial pop, the argument for going any higher basically amounts to "bubble is not over yet." My assumption at this point is that a crash back down would be pretty violent and I'm assuming that because of how absurdly overextended we are. NDX is nearly back at ATH. Like, what? Between Feb and now 20-30% unemployment happened, forward earnings tanked hard, and a bunch of obvious large risks are on the table that weren't before. At some point fundamentals do actually start mattering. This may be the most disconnected from them that we may see in our lifetimes given just how extreme the rift is. We're staring down numbers that haven't been seen since the 1930s, and most people with a memory of the 1930s are dead, but IMO if we reject the 200 SMA here and dump - a very realistic scenario for the last 2 hours of the cash session where volume spikes back to open levels, the goose is cooked and it will be so obvious to big money that we're going lower that we'll go lower fast in the next few sessions. Treasury futures are generally around pivots for continuation up or to mean revert down. Everything is set up for a large move one way or the other. I think the only thing that would truly surprise me at this level is more VIX crush. The ultimate safe haven is USD and USD equivalents that can be used as collateral which is to say treasuries. Margin calls are denominated in dollars, not gold. When things are darkest, institutions take their profits on gold to get more liquid. This happened in 2008, happened briefly in the Feb-March dump. For better or worse, as the global reserve currency USD is what people need worldwide when things dump in 2020. So, the money supply hole the Fed is trying to print into is far larger than just in the US. This appears to be why DXY melted up in March. Institutions abroad needed dollars and had to sell other currencies into it. The position I currently have which I'm most excited about are moonshot June Eurodollar calls I think if a dump plays out treasuries melt up, interest rates go negative, and it happens about as fast as Feb (which took 2 weeks to move interest rates down 1.2 points) but it's a very high R:R bet to take and it probably needs to be right less than 1 in 10 times. Arguably it's as high as a 1:100 R:R scenario. TL;DR: a lot of things are at pivots and SPX is at the D 200 - a very strong move on a lot of things is very likely once SPX decides which way to go. This was written by my co analyst acatwithcharts. He made the indicators used here! If you have any questions for us, links below.
TVC:SPX
by DadShark
6
Draft Kings BubbleIN MY OPINION The coronavirus has sparked a lot of interest in people with (extra money) stimulus checks/unemployment and (extra time) unemployed. When things go back to "normal" and people go back to their regularly scheduled days they will forget about gambling with draft kings but not all of them. I think there will be a solid price range that it will hang around... Right now the most resistance I've seen is around 18.68 and 11.43 for support. Of course price action isn't the only thing to factor in what a company is worth.. I will be looking to short this once momentum slows down.
NASDAQ:DKNGShort
by JakeBrandonCastro
8
[Edutertainment] MUH BAGS: Tesla bagholder quotesWhy even bother analysing companies? I'm really starting to think looking at investors psychology and the noise around a company is all we need. The time has finally come. Tesla has finally reached the euphoria turned denial phase, the baggy phase. I'm really starting to want to short now even with high short interest. I have no access to options and less leverage than FX & Futures (thanks for protecting me against the risk of making money). I'll have to look into it. If I have to lock my capital to make less returns than usually then what's the point. Still, I am interested in this, and I keep learning, one day I'm sure I'll be more diversified and will be trading stocks. We are in the typical not sure how to call it, the typical cycle phase thing. Next step is retail investors "buying cheap". The institutional FOMO buying bubble has popped, and I don't expect a drawn out distribution like 2017-2018 because institutions do not baghold like retail. Witness how media & Hollywood that were praising him and had a big role to play in the success of the stock, are going to do a 180 and hate on him and work to destroy the share price and turn EM into a public enemy. So we are now closer to the typical process which is described in the textbooks with back to normal, institutional selling followed by retail bagholding. Can go fast can not. Considering using a stop loss and a time stop. Here are a few quotes that we see in these situations: Long one but really good, and very typical: Dumb money at its finest. Ok that's enough. I'll leave the final word to Elon, the "anti science conspiracy nut": "What I find most surprising is that CNN still exists" - Elon Musk
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by MrRenev
20
SPX Bubble Where do we begin, well here it goes: We are in a Bear Market 1. All time high bubble has popped with a fastest one month drop of 36% in history,exceeding the pace of declines even during the Great Depression. 2. Megaphone pattern is playing out from 2018-2020 high and lows 3. Elliott Wave corrective ABC with leg B looks to be completed with 2800 level rejection, leg C is about to start which will take SPX a lot lower towards retesting resent lows around 2180 4. Leg B created a bearish bounce of approx. 25% with a rising wedge clearly defined. Every bear market has these wild bounces and this one is no different. 5. Current price rejection is sitting at .50 Fibonacci level. 6. There is a Death Cross on a daily with 50dma crossing 200 6. Drop to 2200 for leg C is a start to retest the resent lows with 1800 in the picture.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by berchik01
2