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The Next Bubble, where is it? Bitcoin/Crypto analysisAll my thoughts are on the chart. For reference, definition of treasuries yield curve: According to Investopedia, the yield curve graphs the relationship between bond yields and bond maturity. More specifically, the yield curve captures the perceived risks of bonds with various maturities to bond investors. The U.S. Treasury Department issues bonds with maturities ranging from one month to 30 years. As bonds with longer maturities usually carry higher risk, such bonds have higher yields than do bonds with shorter maturities. Due to this, a normal yield curve reflects increasing bond yields as maturity increases. However, the yield curve can sometimes become flat or inverted. In a flat yield curve, short-term bonds have approximately the same yield as long-term bonds. An inverted yield curve reflects decreasing bond yields as maturity increases. Such yield curves are harbingers of an economic recession .
TVC:US10Y
by mushroomer
Apple scare the shit out meLooking for history the last time apple recover so quicly was in 2007 it recover for 4 months then start to droping like hell, the question what justify apple trading at these levels, all fang not only absurd overbought, RSI Of stocks are in the 80, like msft, dis, amzn fb, the question you have to ask is why now? we are in a bull market so quickly you see in the times before that apple as fully recover always has double bottom, apple did not do that, also looking at fundamentals, during the last 5 years apple has diluted their shares nearly 19%, so EPS Look Higher, there is a lot of speculation with this stock, i think is the most speculative stock in wallstreet after tsla nflx all and amazn, i get msft has double digit growth but what has apple last quarter iphone sales decline 15% YOY and thatis 65% of his revenue, the claim services is just 10% of his total revenue, even if apple doubles that in 2 years, they have 10 years of the same product,no major changes beside better screen camara and processor, wallstreet always oversale this stock like is the best company in the world, people are buying iphone XR More than 10 thats why they are not even revealing how many units they sell, wallstreet in matter of months take apple again to hit 1 trillion? like a nothing happen, there is a lot of questions regarding the future of apple, i get is a good company, but is not was used to be, they need a new product, now all people buying the stupidity of services like is a big deal, i think apple could cut guidance, market is not expecting so much move because of volatility but look what happen with intel, everyone was so bullish and then earnings fall 10%, with volatilty at 12% dont want to imagine with vix at 20, so, i think apple could fall 188-190 the next week but who knows, these irrational market im all in short here, i just buy 195 puts May 17 GL To all traders!
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by Kanon8260
4
My view of crypto fraud market, the magician and 666I've wanted to post this idea much earlier, but I didn't feel to write, although I got so many to write about with a constant flow of ideas and information that I could write volumes, I try to keep it short and expand it in updates. I do notice nobody gets my updates, you have to click the "Follow this idea" next to the like button, try if that helps... if not, well my account is shadowbanned indeed. The pump was artificial, there is no 100m usd mystery buyer, that story is non-sense, because a mystery buyer does not place at hundreds of exchanges same second for supposedly billions of dollars market orders. Imho, it's the crypto cartel, ala exchanges that have done this. I've explained this before in the MM exit pump idea when we went to 8.45k last year. Today my friends, it's the beginning of the end. I've talked about black swan for over a year that it's coming. Bitfinex and tether are getting sued, but this is just the beginning, because the rest is following. www.wsj.com www.theblockcrypto.com Task Enforcement agencies have already banded worldwide and Binance will be the biggest of entire crypto collapse. www.asiatimes.com www.theblockcrypto.com I shared with friends a vision I had last summer that a major exchange is going to get shutdown in Oct '19, I've put this idea locked/private, here it is for future reference @ This probably will be shunned as fud, but I know asia crackdown is coming coming months already and CZ probably knew he would go to jail when he stayed in Japan, which I've talked about last year, hence fleeing to pirate island, which is now also not safe, they're coming there as well. I've made predictions last year as well what would happen and so far coming true: 1) Fake exchange hack stories, when in reality it's organized theft and exitscams. Many have exitscammed and many more will, including the large exchanges. Quadriga was just one of them; 2) The drop to 3.2-3.3k, before going lower; 3) Manipulation of price using tethers; 4) Manipulation of public sentiment; 5) The toxification of crypto communities (see CT); 6) The rise of fraud and criminal activities. I've calmed down the guys thinking it was the bottom at 3.12k, which I do not subscribe too. I saw even the permabears became bullish and calling the bear market over. I've always said we going to make a new low to 2-2.2k for bounce area to watch how it reacts before calling anything over. My neutral price is $650-700 and a real collapse could mean $80-$90 per bitcoin. I've shared my fundamental reasons for thinking and feeling so. I've shared the evidence of manipulation back in Bitcoinica days, to MtGox to Bitfinex to Binance to Bitmex and all usual suspects of pump and dump clowns and promoters and useful idiots at the expense of the naive, which there are many. You've been told lies about Bitcoin and it's become like a religion, which any who believed in it that it would be the future would proof to me they are young souls and probably will find out the hard way if they don't change. I do believe digital currencies will be the future, probably with blockchain for scalability, uptime and security. I've watched this space since 2011 and only started trading few years laters and I've read the bitcoin white paper and sounded very good. Today, 10 years later, Bitcoin devs have departed from that vision for centralized vision, the anti-thesis of Satoshi Nakamoto. What has become of cryptocommunity freedomlovers has turned into a toxic place of the masses where everything is about the value of bitcoin vs usd, including exchanges who scam people for every cent they got. This was not what Bitcoin was first about, hence I call crypto a giant fiat extraction ponzi scheme. If crypto was about to survive and have meaning, it has to start over, with all rotten players out of the game and start mass adoption in private and public sector at much lower prices so distribution goes to as much people as possible. Valuations are still in bubble territory and is kept aritficial with tethers. Last month over 1.2 BILLION magic money (yesterday 300m + 40m) was pumped in the system with worldwide fiat trading vol less than 6% and estimation fiat in system less than 10% at much lower prices, so prices are propped up to the last suckers still buying, including some people from MtGox days I know who have not learned anything. Now here is the kicker. They can still exit scam and pump prices to 8-30k, which has nothing to do with technicals, see my chart, in other words, entire crypto will be Tethers exclusively. This will mean that you CANNOT cash out in fiat, I hope you do understand that, right? Your only place would be p2p with no liquidity and eventually at discount. I've said in my updated post and in the one of SPX + my twitter were first resistance was, which we hit and second to sell coin and also where to exit crypto and cash out. I've recommended not to short and some people didn't listen and got in big losses, then why you telling me this when I said not to short when obviously it would go higher. With such news, this rally can be over, as it was with Bitconnect. Yeah, how did TA worked out for you with that. Most important asset is your brain. I will update this post later on, right now is critical time and I don't have time to write more at the moment. This chart was made yesterday and targets were made many months ago. My targets don't change, as you see in my previous ideas, I actually did call the bottom which I said was NOT the FINAL bottom. Many egos said they called it when they didn't call anything without any proof, while mine is over a year old at first. Most important thing, preserve your capital. Updates will follow.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by CryptoSwindle
21
S&P500 IT BubbleTaking a look at the IT sector of the S&P 500, we can see a some-what bubble formation. If you look back at the DotCom Bubble you will notice the same has developed ( High, High Low, High High) before tumbling down. Same as the Bitcoin Bubble. Now, going back to this chart it has currently formed that High, High Low and High High pattern exactly the same as the Dotcom and bitcoin bubbles did which leads me to believe, the IT industry crash is imminent. As tech gets more reliable, there are more and more people who need to buy less of it as their current technological device is reliable enough. Slowing the growth of the market before eventually dropping off. Any comments or criticism is welcome.
SP:S5INFTShort
by JamesEY
1
Bitcoin Botom Price GuessFirst lets look at Price Scenario 1-Mirrors 2014-2015 crash where bitcoin went somewhat mainstream (but still not too well known contrary to 2017 )to some degree. -Price did 1168$ to 153$, a decrease of 87% -Using the bit stamp bitcoin price high of 19665, a decrease of 87% will be $2555 Scenario 2-Mirros the worst bubble of all time, 2011, where we did a -93.7% decrease -Price did 31.83$ to 2.03$, a decrease of nearly -93.5% -Thus, a -93.5% decrease from 19665 would be 1238$ Scenario 3-Retraces to last bubble high. This has happened in 2013 where ( if we ignore the wick,we made a high of 163$, and this was very close to the bottom of the last crash at 153$. If the wick is included then this analysis is not really useful The wick went to 276$, much higher then the bottom of 153$ The 2014 crash though had a much smaller wick -The wick went to about 1168$. The bodies of the candle were at 966$ (using the weekly time frame ) -So thus a bottom at 966-1168$ is possible Scenario 3- Mega Bear Crash mirroring the performance of some of the dotcom stucks (-95 to -99% ) -We could reach a bigger correction then the previous bubbles mentioned since unlike other times, bitcoin was truly mainstream in 2017.It was the talk of everywhere when it surged past 10K and almost hit 20k. Even celebrities were talking about , and some celebrities participated in advertising shitty icos which are now worthless after hitting the exchanges. - The thing is, the world decided that blockchain technology/crypto was not worthy of being an asset to hold, so we started to crash. And the 2015-2017 bull run while there were substantial advances in the crypto technology, real life applications are still slim. - Bitcoins price when it isnt really mainstream and used primarly for shady transactions and as a hedge against the global economy failing is 130-150$ ish. Not likely to go that low but it could happen given the unique circumstances of this bubble -Market makers also might have a incentive to drive bitcoin below 1K as it would be breaking a pyschological barrier and cause more panic selling. This is because below 1k, the next support area is 500-600$ area, so it would happen rapidly TL:DR Potential bottoms are all the way from 150$-2500$. I dont think the bottom has been hit yet btw.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by chartingman43
Bitcoin : Don't FOMO ! But ...Hello, I'm as much as you thrilled by the idea of a new bullrun , knowingly that this time, it's going to be even stronger than before. More and more people are joining the crypto sphere and those who got in, back in january 2018 , are still here since then, waiting for the right moment to get their chance . It's going to be massive : some say bitcoin could reach 100k$ easily , that if we compare the Bitcoin bubble to the Internet bubble , we haven't gone anywhere near as high as people went for the internet, if we look at the money involved. We know the tech is good, but the tech isn't linked to the price , sadly, it needs to climb slowly, with cycles , and those take time, that's how it works. After a move up, people will take their profits, and make the price go down, that's a correction . My TA is simple. The bullish sign is the 200 EMA Cross . We know that when we are above this line 80% of successful trades are longs. The bearish sign is that the RSI is at its biggest overbought since december 2018 ( when BTC hit 16 500$ ) Right now I'm bearish. But I can't predict the future, that's where TA has a limit. How to exactly know when to get in ? You can use My PSAR Bot Trader to set up and alert and receive a notification as soon as the Trend reverses. TLDR; Prepare yourself for a move. Get some stable coins and be ready to enter if something were to happen. Do not wait the last minute to make your bank transfer, it can take up to 48h and trust me there is no worse senstation that missing out because of that. But most importantly: Don't FOMO because it could very well go -30% again after this move up. Good luck ! TAs and ideas are welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by cyatophilum
Buy Msft Puts Cheap $110 July 2.16It is pretty clear that in order to MSFT To sustain absurd level $120, the most expensive dow component right now, this stock is gonna flush like apple and facebook, all people are currently long msft that dont event let it drop to 20 SMA, You are nuts if you are not selling here, my theory is symple, these is the most overbought stock here, with volatility in 13, oh men and earnings not even release, the last time these thing was 104 when report earnings, so magically everything is fine low double digit grothw azure revenue was flat, and the expectation are so high men, you really think is not going to fall? , Microsoft report on May 3, and people are not pricing risk at all the same thing happen with nvdia they manipulative to 320 and then fall to 130, the same facebook 216 then 130, then apple 232 then 142, men you dont see it yet because it feel like suceess but is not bubble im buying here im willing to risk 5k in order to gain 5-10 times my money, i could talke a partial if falls near $110, but i thing once before earnings would be around 110-112, and if it earning miss would to to 108- and by by 200 day, if im wrong could go to 116-120 again but the thin is gonna fall like it or not. I have seen these before im willing to take the risk, because algos price stocks movements but not human emotions. GL to all and buy your Fucking bubble.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by Kanon8260
CRON Bubble Popped: Fibonacci Retracement InitiatedThis sure looks familiar, doesn't it? CRON has a lot more going for it than TLRY, but we still lack justification for this recent rush up. Too high maaaan, it got too highhhh. Notice the uptick in buying and selling volume here recently - this is typical in the end of a bubble cycle. Also notice the downward cypher pattern we are setup to form. Bought a 50 delta, March 1st put on it - expecting to hold till around the $16 level. If you hop on the short train, be ready and be careful; this is about to be a wild ride.
NASDAQ:CRONShort
by Derivati_Capital
3
Are you paying attention ?It can be a challenge comparing the timeframes of two bubbles in TA, when one runs over the course of 10 years vs 2 years. Yet i believe a striking correlation playing out here between two completely different markets in it's own timeframe. As always, both bubbles is naturally fuelled by the same greed and stupidity that is coded into our human DNA . We don’t mean to get ourself in trouble by creating bubbles, but we just can't help it. It’s what makes us human. It’s the same reason we can be so certain that the next phase must begin. What im saying is nothing new under the sun. You can go back in history and study these cycles playing out over and over. It always comes down to two human components. Immense greed and extreme fear, resolving in its own way. Like Ying and Yang, a balance is always kept. It might temporary bend further to the up or downside but the ledger is always kept in check and unbalanced profits will be resolved with unbalanced losses. There’s nothing inherently evil about a bull market coming to an end, however history tells us pain and fear is two cousins that few remember at this point in the market cycle. Drawing correlation to the Bitcoin bubble in 2017, every retail investor was a genius and money was to be made whatever u did, as long as u bought - Did u get that last part? As long as u bought. Because bubble tops paints its own beautiful story, which we can use to our advantage if we pay attention. The signs are always there, and im simply hinting the strong probability of human faults once again painted on the charts. For the retail investor which has been genius for years in Nasdaq, DJI or whatever he bought, the next phase won’t be as quite as easy.Conditioned by 10 years of buying the dip, the retail investor will slowly but surely bleed out in the bear market. As they continuously buy the dip, but never secure profits on the bounces, slowly but surely, most will lose their profits from the bull years as the balance is restored to the ledger. That’s what makes it the bear market. Let’s see just how many skeletons we have in the closet for this bear cycle. I bet there’s some intersting stuff from 2008 that was swept under the carpet which will come out and play. It'll probably get very ugly. Bull markets often extend way beyond expectations. The following cycle tend to do the same. Best of luck Short all bounces.
DJ:DJIShort
by KTAS
1
Amazon (AMZN) to 700 Within 15 Months? Or Blow Off Top?Since my first Amazon analysis, we rallied higher towards a potential double top target, but we met resistance pretty quickly and have begun to drop. There's no need to panic yet, because it seems like the uptrend from 2015 is still intact (in orange). However, if that fails, we may have to head all the way down to our long term log support (in purple), especially if the recent low at 1300 falls. If we follow this descending resistance (in red), this would give us a bottom target near 700 by June, 2020. Total speculation though. A correction is needed in the tech space, as many of these stocks have risen too high for too long. This sort of growth is unsustainable, and we're already seeing some warning signs (jobs waning and earnings not as stellar as they expected). I've already talked at length about why I think the tech bubble needs to pop in my other analyses, so I won't write more about it here. In any case, if we happen to move up from here, we might have a blow off to the top of the channel. As you can see, that would take us above 2000. In sum, trading setups would be - SHORT breakdown of 1300 - target 700 LONG the breakout towards 2200 (a little more risky, but a possible scenario nonetheless). Zoomed Out: This is not financial advice. This is for future reference and speculative purposes only. I don't hold any positions in the stock market at this time. Previous AMZN chart linked at bottom. -Victor Cobra
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by VictorCobra
S&P 500 is Still a Bearish Index!Aloha, traders. This post is meant to discuss the market shock today in which the S&P 500 shot up 1.47%, an unexpected turn of events after such a confident downtrend. Upon further examination, however, this rebound should not have been unexpected; a dead cat bounce against resistance made sense. However, I expect the price to touch the top resistance at $2800 tomorrow morning before returning to its bearish trend. I still maintain that the index will crash to $2600, based on the support and resistance lines. For the time being, we are holding our short position on S&P 500, probably even shorting more if the index works up to 2800 tomorrow. Thanks for reading, leave a like if you agree!
SP:SPXShort
by nextrades
Is Palladium ever going to stop?No. TO THE MOON! Thank you for your time, goodbye. But seriously, we have being going up for a while now, I think mainly due to supply issues, and after palladium became more expensive than gold, it has started to go parabolic. We are pulling back now, right at that price that was gold complacency support. I believe either the bubble will pop, or we are going to test gold all time high. Now... If we go past gold all time high... Oh my. Brace yourselves, the FOMO herd is going to come stampeding. Industrials NEED palladium, to build cars and other stuff doesn't even matter. The sources are not exactly reliable: Russia and South Africa. that is it. Everybody knows Russia, and you migh have heard South Africa was very uncertain... If Russia ends up being the only source it's GG. Right now the normy crowd could not care less, but if Palladium starts going into a mania, just wait and see how every one grandma asks about the white metal. So I see 2 scenarios: 1- Industrials have been panic buying massively and we are going to end up with huge supply and no demand. Huge rapid crash. 2- South Africa will keep sinking into populism and banks nationalisation etc, Palladium demand will keep to rise, and at some point the mainstream FOMO crowd will hear about that precious metal that has been going up and up and up, and this time it will be different "Ye ok we messed up with Bitcoin but Palladium is a real metal and it is actually used in cars and very valuable and scarce so it is impossible we are wrong this time." Once the FOMO crows gets it, enjoy daytrading this +30% in 1 day... Either way, probably going to be fun. Be ready. Keep your eyes on this before anyone else. And remember, no matter how many hundreds of times the mainstream crowd was wrong, this time it WILL be different, they are 100% certain of it.
TVC:PALLADIUM
by MrRenev
4
The American dream is a nightmare - Trump cool aid running out.In this screencast I review briefly some headline issues that point to deep troubles affecting the American economy. I look at the Dow Transportation Index which appears to be leading Wall Street in a southward direction. My list of troubles for America is not exhaustive - so I may well have missed something of greater importance. Do share other facts if you know more. If others know of reasons for optimism on the US Economy I would be willing to learn more. So far, I've not been able to find anything of true substance to support optimism. This post is compliant with Tradingview's house rules on text-based posts.
Education
by Captain_Walker
5
S&P 500 Demolishes Any Chance of RecoveryAloha, trader! Welcome back to another S&P update. If you've been keeping up with our posts, I noted over the weekend that traders should be watching the S&P 500 index, on the brink of a crash. This week, that crash has been playing out, destroying the 2 month bullish rally we've been seeing. Today was a big day for the index, as it needed to beat possible support at around $2755. The bears have won yet again, however, and as we predicted, S&P smashed below. We can expect further bearish price action. I still estimate the index to drop as low as $2500, but perhaps faster than I had originally imagined for such a large fund. Nevertheless, I will hold my short on the index by longing shares in SPXS. I do not expect any noticeable bounces to occur, MACD for the index is strongly indicative of more bearish action, but we've seen crazier. We've been right about the initial S&P drop, the crypto breakout and Ethereum rally, will we be correct about about a second drop for S&P? Thanks for reading, leave a like if you agree!
SP:SPXShort
by nextrades
2
MSFT Reaches My Double Top Target...Now What? Just a brief analysis. There is a possibility that the market will rally higher and that we will see a blow off top, but the DJI has found pretty substantial resistance again above 26000 so we may be about to see the true initial drop of an incoming recession. The December drop was merely the start, and subsequent rally was constructed so that people have another chance to protect their capital. In my last MSFT chart, I suggested there was a possibility for a double top if the recent low couldn't be taken out by the bears. I provided the target for this second top (somewhere in the 110-112 area). If we are to follow this setup, we should see a big drop soon. However, if we build support here and move higher, this idea will be invalidated. Looking at the log chart, once the purple uptrend is broken, we will probably see a much deeper selloff. As you can see, there are some fairly low targets. Things don't necessarily have to play out this way, but I think we need to see some growth slow down, so we can deal with bigger issues as a society (like the environment, for instance). Not financial advice. This is my opinion based on what I'm seeing in the market. Link to previous MSFT analysis at bottom. -Victor Cobra
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by VictorCobra
3
Dow Jones Bubble to BURST with S&P 500Hi, all. In accordance with my recent posts that the S&P 500 is set to crash, I believe that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) on the 1D chart will crash similarly soon. The DJI is showing some signs of reversal in its MACD chart as shown above, and for such a slow-moving index as itself, this bearish indication should not be overlooked. Now, in addition to MACD , the index has seemingly hit a long time resistance and looks to be breaking down because of it. We must expect the potential for a little more bullish action, but within 2 weeks I expect both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 to break down violently. For the time being, I am going to hold my positions in shorting the S&P 500 and DJI. For higher returns, I recommend buying shares in a reverse leveraged ETF like SPXS (for shorting S&P 500 ) or SDOW (for shorting Dow Jones). Thanks for reading, leave a like if you agree!
TVC:DJIShort
by nextrades