Biggest WEED Crash Coming We are currently falling from the top of the biggest MJ bubble in history. Given the recent sell-off, my educated prediction is a possible outcome in the next week or so.
Bubble
Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day ChartOn September 5th I made a similar post comparing the daily chart to the 128 MA. It is much more detailed, however the conclusions didn't change much.
The TL:DR of the previous comparison reads as follows:
Bottom: $2,860 on October, 31st 2018
Range: $3,750 - $5,800 for 8 - 9 months
Breakthrough: $6,100 on June 21, 2019
Because the RSI is not oversold and we are in a tighter coil than last time I expect a faster selloff and therefore a faster rebound. That may or may not mean that the price will go lower, that will depend on support, it does mean that I expect the target to be hit faster than the 1:1 comparison that I did on the chart posted above. There is no way to tell how much faster so I am going to stick with my prediction from the previous bubble comparison, for at least another week.
Only continue from here if you are interested in my subjective view of the fundamentals about the USDT' situation.
I almost always stick with technicals, because I believe that they reign supreme ~99% of the time. I believe that if there is news that will affect the market then it will be seen in the charts before it will be heard in the news ~99% of the time. I think Tether' is a very good example of that, there was a major selloff without the news that I would expect to back it up. There is always FUD' surrounding USDT' about banking relationships, Bitfinex, unbacked Tethers' etc.
However, USDT:USD' has never broke 0.8897 in it's ~18 month history on Kraken and it fell to 0.85 on Saturday night. We have also never seen such a drastic premium on USDT' exchanges when compared to USD exchanges as far as I am aware. To me this represents big money making big moves, which would suggest that insiders know something we don't.
There is a very good chance that I am wrong about that, and I will certainly not be making trades based on loose suspicions. However, I am trying my best to understand the situation and that is what makes most sense to me. Once I feel like I understand the underlying fundamentals of the market then I can get back to doing TA.
I do believe that Tether is single handedly driving the crypto market right now.
The premium remains on the USDT' exchanges and the USDT:USD pair remains in dangerous territory. If it cannot close above historical support of $0.98 in the next couple days then it will be ripe for another selloff. If that does continue to fall then I expect BTC' to moon on USDT' exchanges. This last pump came on Tether losing 14% of it's market cap and 12% of it's USD value (at it's low).
At it's peak, that added 16% to the value of BTC:USD' + BTC:USDT' / 2
Therefore it is clear that a flight to safety from USDT' to BTC' would also cause people to FOMO in with USD. If Tether' were to legitimately go to $0 then there is no telling how high that would pump the price of BTC:USD' or BTC:USDT'. However, once people ran out of USDT' then there would be very few buyers at the inflated prices and a sharp reversal would be expected.
If insiders had information then they already made there moves and now there could be a situation where I put technicals to the side. All TA that I have done would suggest that > $8,500 BTC' would = the next bull market. Before this weekend I would have been very confident in becoming bullish on Bitcoin at a price above $8,500. Now I would hesitate very much to make that same claim unless USDT:USD was ~1:1 on Kraken or unless the price stayed there for a month or two.
I am currently shorting USDT:USD at $0.97. I view this as a very safe trade while waiting to buy back into BTC'. It everything stabilizes then I should be able to breakeven by buying back at support. If not then I have orders set at $0.85 / $0.75 / $0.5 and $0.01 to cover 25% of my position. While waiting for BTC' to figure itself out I think this is a great way to put my sidelined fiat to work.
Buy 110 support maybe and/ or Buy at 85$ rangeIf $110 doesnt hold then "the bubble of everything has popped" And buy at 84$
I really hope this fractal doesn't play out on netflix..We are seeing some early signs of bearish sentiment ... I have said multiple times in the past if we get some type of correction in stocks it will be because of overvalued tech stocks such as google amazon Netflix nvidia and many others..
I am not trying to call a top here! we still need to make more lower lows to confirm the trend but we are getting early signs of bad structure similar to the way the internet bubble was topping out .
the spx could have a trend line failure and do a ABC or go for more legs up so we are just watching those levels
But yeah I don't want this to happen cause it would mean lots of people loose money but also I feel I need to post warnings to watch for lower low patterns and more weakness so you don't get exposed to a 40% drop or something crazy like that.
remember there are lots of kids Netflix and chilling these days but you can also still use torrents and hulu
Stay safe and stay profitable out there.
BTCUSD - Bubble comparison and 2011 to present trendlinesA couple of things have bothered me looking at historical trends.
One is that the 2014 crash was much more chaotic. I've tried to display my interpretation of that here.
Also, the longest logarithmic graph is curved: bitcoin.zorinaq.com
This curve has not been perfectly circular and has been flattening out progressively, nonetheless this is an argument for a possibly more bearish scenario than possible here
"All those dudes who bought early are so lucky, must be rich ""Omg, all those early investor traders must have made shit loads of moneizzz. Was so easy, you just buy some, and wait, it was raising all the time, any dumb dude would have been a millionaire!!"
No.
=>
pop goes the bubble.i checked this on the 6 monthly as well and boy it looks parabolic as hell.
This is the monthly chart though.
The signal is clear as bloody day for me.
Finally my monthly indicators are literally ALL in unison.
Simple bearish divergence on the RSI.
Simple bearish divergence on the fast oscillator and collapsing close to the zero line - scary.
Simple bearish divergence on the slow oscillator.
Simple bearish divergence on the histograms on both fast and slow oscillators.
It's as if the stars are lining up.
I don't know about you.
But I'm GTFO stocks rn.
Come back in when poop hits the fan.
BTCUSD - Bubble comparisons, 365day MA, and volume flowBTCUSD - Bubble comparisons, Yearly MA, and volume flow. The current lack of volume isn't saying much for a December moon.
This tightening wedge seems very ominous. Also very unpredictable where it's going to go. Bullish on 2020, but for now, the price changes might not be as interesting as one might hope
Dollar Index Ready to go to New HighsFundamentally , within the context of the current currency crisis experienced by emerging market economies, the dollar index is set to go to new highs in the upcoming weeks. Capital flights from weaker economies will pump into the dollar. This should have a strong effect on the valuation of the most important currency in the world. Turkey, Iran, Venezuela, Russia, Argentina and Brasil are perfect examples of the weakening of these market economies. For more information about these, please refer to: www.youtube.com .
Technically , the DXY is set to achieve new highs around 101.84 points. This is a FIB level of 0.618 phi in the overall chart.
We can see in this 4H timeframe chart a:
1. Descending Channel (red) after entering the 0.5 phi level between the 0 - 1 FIB level.
2. Consolidation/accumulation within the reversal triangle (blue) that pumped upwards.
3. An Inversed Head & Shoulders pattern that should pump upwards as soon as the DXY manages to break through the base of the pattern.
Now, taking a look at the 1D timeframe chart, we can see the following technicals:
1. A massive Bullish Bat Harmonic Pattern.
2. A massive Megaphone Pattern.
3. A Falling Wedge pattern with the confirmed breakout.
3. A bear trap formed after the rejection of the 0.382 phi and the failed dumped of the megaphone pattern.
This technical structure in the 1D timeframe fits and confirms the upcoming rise prediction of the 4H timeframe chart.
Finally, looking at the 1W timeframe, we can see that the Triangle Reversal Accumulation Pattern the dollar had for about ten years, between 2004 until 2014, fundamentally coincides with the time the emerging markets got into US debt by accessing cheap credit fostered by the IMF among other international entities and institutions.
P.S.: Considering cryptocurrencies are within a Bear Market, I am going to actively start posting charts about Forex, Indexes, Commodities and a Stock Bubble that I see forming in a country in the Americas. Follow me and like my idea to access this content!
BTC: bubble/recovery analysis from an engineers point of view
Hello everyone,
First of all, thank you for reading. I tried my best to articulate my thoughts as well as possible.
I would love to discuss this analysis with you, whether you are in favour or very much against my line of thinking.
I am here to learn and make money, but first you have to learn in order to make money - and learning is best done by explaining your thoughts and reasoning to other people.
Finally, please keep in mind that this is an engineers point of view, which tends to be exact.
My analysis does not take into account factors like massive manipulation or the dumping of 100k BTC from MtGox/Silk Road, or other situations like this.
Thank you and good luck with trading,
Nick.
TLRY - 09/19Set to open around the $200 mark? Not calling this the top, but sure we are pretty close to the top!
We all know how this ends? #Crypto $DRYS
Bitcoin bubbleYes bitcoin did go on a tear last year and has had a tough 2018 thus far. Expand your timeframe and see this for what it is... the investment opportunity of a lifetime. Buy spot and stay away from high margin scammers...
AAPL - Bubble Waiting to Pop (or already popped?)Looks like AMZN which looks like Bitcoin which looks like every other bubble in history. Parabolic moves do not end well.
CRON notesWatching it on two hour chart seems like today's action was centered around where it close up at around. Trend is still up as it broke up out of an ascending triangle on the weekly chart. I still think pot stocks are in a bubble and they will continue to go higher in price. For options traders it has already breached it's expected move for the week, with the top being 11.19 for the week. Could be pulled back to that area or we are looking at a 3 sigma move
Bitcoin Bubble ComparisonHave amended my projections to: < $6,000 by October 4th and $2,860 by October 31st for the bottom.
The Bulls have had their fun.Continued RSI divergence and weakness into close looks bearish for tomorrow.
Choose your Bubble fractal adventure...For my fellow crypto-pirates who lived through the 2013 double-bubble party on the titanic S.S. Gox, then clung to driftwood in the great Bear Sea for two years, there are two ways to judge where we're at on the charts:
Either we're already adrift post-peak-bubble and bear season is hardly over (bulls have such short memories of how long bear season can last) -- or we just had the first correction and are about to launch into an end-year moon rally to complete the double-peak formation.
Based on this completely arbitrary curve I've sketched (I didn't even try to calculate anything, so don't ask), and some dubious lines of trajectory, if we're on the double bubble track (pink) we could hit 80-90k by end of year, with the rocket thrusters kicking in September.
If we're in the middle of the deep Bear Sea (orange), then we have easily another year of draining all the inflated air out of the bubble slowly, and the recovery rally won't show up until 2020.
Either way, make sure you've got lots of rum, limes, and sunscreen, we're going to be out to sea for a while ;) what use do pirates have for lambos anyway?
2018: year of the "every market correction"?Hi traders,
I am almost feeling sorry for recently posting so many negative TAs, but believe me if the markets were showing bullish signs i would post bullish TAs
One of the few rare market i see with possible incoming bullishness is gold
Btc is a bursting bubble, Amazon is possibly ending up its Bubble parabolic raising pattern (though the parabolic uptrend might not be finished now, it could have slightly more room to raise), exact same comment for Nvidia, Nasdaq Composite shape is not encouraging (lots of its listed companies are producing dangerous parabolic raising patterns, the list is very long), and of course the Dow is not looking good too (the pattern is very similar to the Nasdaq pattern).
It is to be seriously considered that we could have this year a sort of overall corrective market correction as yes, i will say it, lots of markets and stocks are currently overvalued to very overvalued.
Good luck and trade safe
Financial Crisis and Recession InboundThe Monthly RSI over the last few months went higher than 97 and 08! The yeild curve inversion. The Turkish Lira collapse along other fiat currencies. Unemployment is low. Very soon we will see a sharp market downturn. In the chaos I believe we will see that the bank bailouts from 09 will have only postponed the issues. This may be the biggest financial disaster we have seen in our lifetimes.
King Bitcoin | Alternative view based on daily close | Long termThe daily close gives a much different view and might give clues which we otherwise might overlook and might also be of interest for traders and investors alike.
Since bubbles tend to go in to UNDERVALUEATION, I'm very surprised that nobody mentions this so far on Tradingview to my knowledge, let alone other professional or experts. So how do I know? I've studied bubbles for a long time, after having lost my shirt in dot com collapse with first hand experience. Unlike worthless crap companies, I believe crypto and bitcoin is here to stay until I die. I cannot say this for the majority of alts, which end up like those crap companies of the dot com era with no doubt in my mind.
People can heed the warning, I wish I had this information, platform and tools back in the day, there was none of it readily available and the www as we know it today. In the age of information, ignorance is a choice.
So I decided to make a roadmap based on this view. The count works surprisingly well, very close as for those with wicks included.
Trading Strategy for Parabolic Markets [Part 3]In part 1 I outlined an approach that I have been working on that is aimed towards trading parabolic markets. In part 2 I outlined 4 trades with entries, stop losses and risk:reward calculations. The best position (in terms of risk:reward) has been saved for last.
Notes: Tyler Jenks says, “All hyperwaves are bubbles but not all bubbles are hyperwaves.” This looks much more like a legit bubble than a hyper wave. Weekly chart has been included to illustrate that. | 200 MA > 10 MA > 50 MA | ADX is getting ready to cross 20 in confluence with the bull flag breakout | Weekly ADX getting ready to cross below 20 | Price is currently below 200 day MA and is acting as resistance | 50 week MA is also acting as resistance | Daily RSI = 56.81 and weekly RSI = 53 | Visible Range Volume Profile shows all of the volume at $19 - $50 and very little resistance at higher prices. Since this is not a hyperwave the VRPR and FIB Retracement levels will be very important. The profit targets are also much easier to recognize/calculate.
Q-2 Earnings Report: Deposits: Expected earnings per share: $1.54 vs $1.62 actual earnings per share for a +5.19% surprise. $996.7B vs Projection: $1.009T | Fixed income trading revenue: $308B vs Projection: $3.11B' | Sales from consumer banking and institutional clients: $8.25B & 9.691B for a growth of 2% & 3% respectively.
Time Analysis: Could see it gapping over the 200 day MA on Monday, could also see months of consolidation to follow death cross from 4/26 and ADX falling below 25 on weekly chart.
Possible Entries: Breakout above 200 day MA and 50 week MA - I have set a price alert at $75.59 | Breakout above local high of $81.54 (second price alert) | 50 and 200 day MA golden cross
Risk: Need new low to be established on the weekly after breaking through the 200 MA. If use current low then the risk is 21.25%.
Profit Targets: $125 (+56%) | $236 (+195%) | $399 (+398%)
Risk:Reward: Depends on how much is profit is capitalized at each target and where the next weekly low comes in. Suffice it to say this is the best r:r out of all the positions listed. When there are too many good opportunities for an entry then I like to use the risk:reward ratio to determine the best entry.
Part 1
Part 2
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